Tyler Mislawchuk is a podium threat after seeing him race in Huatulco. He's on form and will be a contender.

I would agree, he looked good especially on the run.

I am sure Triathlon Canada can now breath a sigh of relief with the whole saga of the Canadian MTR in Portugal. Any MTR podium chance for them at OG?

Pretty sure Canada didn't qualify for MTR. Seems like they basically gave up on it, since it was clear B-squad that lined up in Lisbon.

That was the whole saga... but now they have qualified with 2 men and 2 women, they automatically qualified for MTR.

I dont think Canada has a real shot in the MTR... Apart from Tyler, the other 3 are not superclass. I would put USA, France, UK, Belgium, Australia, NZ, Germany and Switzerland well ahead. They might be fighting for a top 8 against Spain, Italy or Netherlands....

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

There seems to be some confusion around the MTR... In order to have a guaranteed MTR start and guaranteed 2/2 you needed to auto qualify in the MTR (either on the series top 7 or podium the qualifier in Lisbon) and have at least two males and two females in the Top 140 on Olympic Qualification rankings (i.e. have two of each eligible for selection). That said, any country that qualified two men and two women could get an MTR start. So while you only had 10 auto qualify in the MTR (plus Japan as hosts), I believe there are 17 countries who are actually eligible to race the MTR in Tokyo (Canada, Spain, Austria, Hungary, Mexico, South Africa).

Canada is a dark horse for the MTR. They have been marred with inconsistency, but when they are on, they are a top 6 threat, and on the right day, could factor into the podium (see when Lepage crashed in a 2 up breakaway and they still finished 6th), however when they are off, they're fighting for a top 10... Your obvious top threats are France, GB, Aus, and the US, with Belgium & New Zealand as your next tier, then you have Germany, Swiss, Canada, Netherlands and possibly Spain (not the spanish teams we see in the MTR series, but the Spanish team in Tokyo, where they don't race a C team on the men's side) as the next tier and then Mexico, South Africa, Hungary, Japan, Italy and Austria, who are lucky to be there (Italy on a good day could be a top 10 threat, and an outside threat at better, but it really depends on how on their men are, because they have a really strong women's team (Betto, Olmo, Mazzetti and Zane, not sure who will get their two spots, Betto for sure, and then likely Olmo or Mazzetti, Mazzetti is higher ranked, but Olmo is more consistent in the MTR).

Holland was just on Greg Bennett’s podcast. She’s an interesting one…depending on the race dynamics, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her on the podium in Tokyo.

I think the women’s bike leg in Tokyo will be fascinating. So much depends on how that goes!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I am sorry but I disagree with the options for canada in the MTR. No chance for podium IMO
France, UK, USA are main favourites. I think Germany is in that list (the 2nd spots were chosen based on a supersprint time trial, so they are focused on that). Then NZ,Australia (whith Hausser) and Belgium quite close (thas why they will send Hausser) and Canada might be in a good day fighting against Switzerland and Spain...but the best they could get in their best best day is top 7-8, so no for medal contention...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Holland should be hapy with a top 8. Even at the best scenario, the bunch together at T2, she has several women running faster than her: Summer, KZ (in shape), Beaugraund, GTB, Spirig, Gentle, and probably Jess L and Lindemann. THese women, but Gentle, has proven it....Holland ran in Lisbon..not very well by the way...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Team Norway for the olympics is not official.

Women:
Lotte Miller

Men
Kristian Blummenfelt
Gustav Iden
Casper Stornes

Agreed - on paper she isn’t a favorite. But she had had big results on big days, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she got on the podium. Not expecting it or predicting it, but it wouldn’t be a shock.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I think Mazzetti is pregnant.

my dark horse pick for a podium spot is carolyn hayes. i'm a sucker for the ol' country, and she's had some strong runs lately that suggest she's coming into form.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

You forgot Duffy, who had the fastest run split in Leeds (faster than Potter & Beaugrand). Holland on her day is always a podium threat, but I would say her shot is tied to being able to bridge on the bike, because the odds are low that she will swim with the front pack (she can swim front pack without Learmonth and Duffy in the field, but with them there, she's likely too far back)...

Wasn't aware that Mazzetti might be pregnant, I also missed that Italy qualified 3 women's spots (technically it was Betto, Mazetti & Steinhauser who's rankings secured the spot), so they could field Betto, Olmo & either Steinhauser or Zane (if Mazzetti is out).

And I agree that Canada isn't a favorite and is a long shot at best in the MTR, but we haven't seen a Canadian MTR with everyone on form yet, and both Mislawchuk and Brown could have them in contention, so it comes down to Sharpe and Kretz as to whether they are fighting for the top 5 or fighting for the top 10...

https://www.triathlon.org/...lympic_qualification for those interested in who qualified what.

Hayes is an interesting one. I don’t think she’ll be with the leaders off the bike, but if she is…

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

oh, sure, Duffy!!!! sorry... yes, she is favourite no.1 for me. If she has a good swim, she´got the race in the pocket. I dont think Spirig or team GB can match her in the run because she will make sure to hammer it in the bike leg...

Hayes is a good runner, but not as good as a podium threat....as dark horses we could add many girls: KIngma, Perterer, Betto... who knows...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Hayes fits into the Ashley Gentle style mode, she has a shot if the pack can catch the break on the bike, but there are strong enough runners in the front swim pack that could hold her off if it's not just a dash for cash...

You have to add Knibb to your list. She out ran Kingma. And TKis not flying around racing. She's home training.
If she swims near that front group, the only Swim/biker who will out run her is Flora or GTB. And GTB has been injured.

I feel fairly confident that Summer or TK will end up on the podium. But it'll be a one or the other situation.
If there is a significant bike break, TK will podium. If its' a big group, Summer will podium.
Either way I see Taylor Spivey getting 4rd-8th. (I'm assuming they'll pick Spivey)

Wow, really surprising selection there!!

In the case of a bike breakaway, it likely contains Flora, GTB and Learmonth, so I wouldn't feel all that confident about TK podiuming.

I’m not confident about TK getting on the podium in that situation, but it could happen. GTB hasn’t raced ITU since September. When healthy she’s a weapon. Learmonth was outrun by Kingma at Leeds.

If there is a favorite, it has to be Flora. If she comes out with a lead pack in Tokyo, I can’t see her not on the podium. It would have been interesting to see the dynamics in Leeds without Lucy making the swim so white-hot. I assume Flora would have won.

Ultimately I don’t expect it, but I won’t be surprised if Knibb is on the podium should a small group get away.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I don't think Flora was at her swimming best in Leeds. She usually makes the front pack fairly easily even with Learmonth in the race. Yes Lucy may have made it a bit faster still, but Flora for most of the swim was slower than Beth Potter in Leeds, which normally doesn't happen. Same with Katie, she's obviously (even less) at her best right now, but for her it's overall, not just the swim.

It's interesting, maybe Flora put a big emphasis this year on taking her run to its top level, and may have neglected the swim in the process slightly? Or she just had an off day in Leeds in the swim.

can you imagine how miserable it would be to be the 4th-best triathlete in norway right now?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Vetle Bergsvik Thorn just won the European Cup in Poland two weeks ago, he's only 22, and in his only WTCS race so far he didn't finish, but he was the first Norwegian out of the water.
So while the olympic selection for Tokyo was obvious, it might not be for Paris

More por less the same as being 4th best in any other country that qualifies 3 athletes for the Olympics.