Weirdly a great race for the Brits and an absolute disaster, you get yourself a double Olympic gold medalist as your domestic and then you crash!

Encouraging race for Jonny, but I'm not building my hopes up just yet, that course was perfect for him, Tokyo is flat isn't it? Mola looking in better form, Blum looks s bit burnt out? Who was it who said he may have peaked too early?

Did he crash or was he taken out?

I feel sorry for Bishop. He races better with spaced out races. This is probably his last year as a funded athlete. Even if he qualifies as 3rd athlete they have no intentions of sending him to the Olympics.

No idea, the footage was terrible, just showed him on the floor and then Ali going back to help him.

Maybe the pressure he was under got to him in the end, theirs an awful lot at stake here.

Appreciate the clarification on Briffod's coach. Bad assumption on my part. Also understand the potential political selection issues that may affect him as not part of that squad. There is so much that goes into these selection determinations beyond simple talent and performance.

Yesterday we saw a hilly course really fit for him and Alistair, (same as Leeds), but Tokyo is flat and technical. //

Those two different courses often race out the same. Technical just means a lot of bike handling and surging big power numbers, similar to hilly courses. Small groups have a distinct advantage on technical if there is at least one guy that can bomb the hard parts, and we know that both B's can do that.


I think you are getting too caught up into recent racing history and overlooking the 90% factor here, the right now form. Doesnt matter if JB or AB have had bad races or even years, if they show form right now they are going to be favorites going into the games(based on two past games performances), along with a few others on form right now too. Johnny just out ran the guy who was crushing everyone in the run the past two races, as well as some of the sports best runners historically. It was of course after a really hard bike, but dont think for one minute the bike at the games will not be full gas as well..


Gonna be a great race I believe, and tactics are going to be really important in the final outcomes. Dudes that have been nibbling on the back of the swim packs are going to have a rude awakening, like a few did in this past race. I think some forget that in these normal races the swim is not nearly as hot as a race like the games is going to be, or other world champs. That changes the dynamic for a lot of guys like Mola, Blum, and others that will lose 15 to 20 more seconds at T1...

Yeh I thought we were speaking the same language ;)

Tend to agree with you, I'm not sure AB directly or indirectly adds to the medal tally if he isn't fit just now. Like you say JB in a break or AY in a mass T2. And even in either of those scenarios I wouldn't actually bet on GB getting a Men's medal.

It's probably just the cyclic nature of things that it is likely the funding is gonna get reduced. If the rumours are true a medal in the women's event could be tough, mens is gonna be tough and mixed relay is probably a high chance.

For the mixed relay Yee on the last leg gives GB a chance at gold. I doubt any of the other 3 are going to get dropped before the last leg so could work out like the Test Event. But he cannot get isolated.

Can't wait for next week.

I agree, Monty, and in addition the swim in the Olympics is a lot more spread out due to the bigger spread of ability.

Tokyo will suit a small breakaway just fine. It's more technical than London.

It's likely KB, Mola etc don't see the front all day.

I still remember AB going off the front of the bike on his own at London, what seemed like just for the hell of it. That was ludicrous. And was before walking the end of a 29:07 run.

I'm not sure I'll ever see something like that again.

I'm a bit worried about Luis. By his own admission he messed up his prep for Rio by trying new things, I hope that's not the case here.

Rio was hyped as too hot for AB and JB, there were doubts about their form, and look what happened.

On the women's side, Spirig seems to be criminally underrated. She wins almost anything she races in. If you follow her IG, she seems to do almost any Tri or running distance and almost always smashes it. Plus she has gold and silver already. Yet hardly gets a mention. She'll be there in Tokyo.

The field of 55, with arguably 5-10 athletes that wouldn't normally make a WTCS, will string things out so that bike break could stick. I just think there is enough firepower to bring a larger group of 25-30 together, somewhat like the Lausanne grand final. The key to getting away if getting that group down to 4 or 5 for the more technical sections. The normal 10-12 won't cut it. So AB would be advantageous in that scenario.

2012 AB is something I dunno if we will see for a long, long time. Literally ridiculous. In some ways he wasn't the same athlete (runner) in Rio but that was an equally impressive performance over all 3 disciplines. Just check Ben Kanute's lead pack power numbers for the bike leg!

The heat in Rio was actually fairly tame with an air temp of 26⁰C and water of 21⁰C. Tokyo is gonna be over 30⁰C air and 29⁰C water. That's gonna be a massive variable in this race. Be interested to see how this gets handled, given many athlete's heat prep is gonna be hampered by Covid travel restrictions.

I have a cheeky tenner on Spirig. Absolutely worth a punt. I don't think anyone else is really standing out at the moment.

I'm not to worried about Luis or Mola as Joel Filliol tends to get his athletes in top shape for the big races. Luis certainly won't make the same mistakes again as he had a different coaching set up prior to Rio. Basically smashed his running, got injured and was not in the required shape come Rio.

Adding to the dilemma for UK selectors is that adding Alistair means better chances for Jonny. Alex’s participation doesn’t actively hurt Jonny as Alex is not the one to drive those second or third packs, he’s just a passenger. And I guess that gives them a fallback scenario if the groups do come together. But having Ali instead of Alex means going all in the breakaway scenario (or at least making it as hard as possible for the other packs to bridge up) and that’s much better for Jonny (plus having the double Olympics champion as your wildcard in that scenario)!

We all agree both Bs and Yee should go but the federation or the athletes have not done their work to earn the 3rd spot. If Alistair is fit, even a fit Yee is not enough imo for the olympics...cause better two bullets in a breakaway (2 out of 8 or 10) than 1 out of 35 if all are coming together. Then, I did not expect Yee to run slower than Geens, KB or Pearson in Yokohama. Tokyo will be tough, hot as an oven, and fast times are not expected..it will be a run of strenght and survival and for that you have to master the swim in boiling water and the bike and Yee still does not have it.
Dont underrate the temperature and humidity cause will play a huge role...thats why i see people like Gomez and Schoeman doing great. I am wondering how that will affect to KB even all the guys and girls are simulating the conditions in their training.He is a big guy.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

i agree, but: isn't the tokyo race going to be held super-early in the morning? like 06:00 or something? surely that would take the edge off the heat a bit. . .

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

still, the water temperature is expected at 29 C (84F) which will boil a great bunch of guys and girls, specially if the swim is fast and the T1 is fast and furious.
Temperature at 6.00am is forecasted as 28-30celsius, humidity between 60-90%...
This is olympic distance. I dont see Yee in position to hold the swim and bike in the chase pack with easiness... I would go with both B´s unless Alistair is injured.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

wow - 29 degree water is shocking. those guys will be cooking!

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

6:30 (7:30 for the relay)
https://olympics.com/...chedule#20210726_TRI
https://www.seatemperature.org/asia/japan/
76o surface sea temperature (from historic observations)

At 6:30 maybe a degree less: say 3o of diurnal variation about that average (for late July off Tokyo).

Despite Canada's decision to tank the relay in Lisbon, they currently are narrowly holding onto 2 spots each, and could do an MTR (based on her Lisbon finish, Kretz has climbed just high enough to hold onto the last spot that could give Canada the extra berth, and she's on the start list for both Leeds and Huatulco to likely snag more points to consolidate that slot).

Joanna Brown will likely be good to go for Tokyo, although whether she wants to swim in Japan is another matter given the severe kidney infection she picked up in Yoko... That said, the broken nose is actually a good omen, she's had a few fractures in the last few seasons and came back from them with Top placings (4th in Montreal, 3rd in Bermuda)...

I would hate to be neighboring with team GB at the hotel in Azarchena, because I suspect that while they were thrilled that JB channeled his former self and won the race, Ali was probably not so thrilled at putting the effort into being a domestique for Bishop, who, even before the crash, looked like he was limping through the race. Ali did the lion's share of the work to tow the chase pack up to the break, only for Bishop to be dangling off the back minutes later when they hit the climb, he dropped back, and kept towing him back up, until the touch of wheels ended any hopes of getting him into a spot where he could run for valuable points. I'm surprised he waited up for Bishop after the crash, rather than surging on. While the opportunity to earn points for the 3rd spot was really gone, he could have at least beat some americans to prevent them from getting as many points...

As for the LCB racing Leeds... This is purely for publicity more than anything else. She will legit be last in the line up because she has no ITU points, but does have a huge following, and will help in terms of media attention and selling VIP tickets. I suspect she'll swim well, and will be in the main group for sure, but unless she makes a small breakaway (there are the right horses for a break out of T1, Duffy Coldwell, Kingma), I suspect that the bike will be eye opening. Her fitness is there, but I am not sure how she'll hold up to the dynamics of a WTCS race (you can try to train for the gas/brake style of racing somewhat, but there's a learning curve to how violent that can actually be on race day), and what will be left of the legs for the run. That said, it'll give her a chance to test those waters and see if she wants to make the switch and take a shot at Paris, or whether she just stays focused on IM, and she does want to do more World Tri style racing, it'll give her some ranking points to move up the grid. As of now, there's 48 women on the start grid, and it's an interesting one. It's less stacked than Yoko (which was key in many countries for OG qualification), and populated by a mix of people using it as an OG tune-up and those desperate for qualifying points, as well as the Brit crowd using it as a home turf tune-up with minimal travel. The list had been at 60+ racers, but has dropped down with some folks deciding to forego Leeds and do the Huatuclo world cup instead to better simulate the hot conditions for the OG.

Solid insights/considerations - thanks for those. Just hoping Amelie is not cooking herself by racing so much. 🤞 Can't wait for the race!

I suspect that following Huatulco, we'll start to see very different looking fields at races, with most of the Olympic athletes racing sparingly if at all... We'll start to see the next generation of athletes looking ahead to Paris to start to make attempts in earnest at improving rankings. We'll also likely see those who miss out on the OG (i.e. The brits, french, american women and spanish men) making full blown assaults on series points and rankings for the overall title.

Agreed though, it's a fine line between making those last ditch effort to secure slots, and putting yourself in a hole where you could never perform at said race (this is where other than being on the outside looking in, GB is in the best situation, the one chasing the points to get the 3rd slot, is very unlikely to actually get the spot in the OG, Bishop is racing everywhere, but we known damn well that the slot is for either Yee or Ali...). In Amelie's case, her best shot at a result is likely in the relay. She has a realistic shot at a top 30 (or better) at the OG if she has a good day, but is truly a longshot to crack the top 10. With that in mind, I don't see her digging a hole where she wouldn't be ready to go at the OG (it's not like those who do the last ditch effort to get into Kona, where doing a full distance 6weeks out of the race generally means overall chances are done, and you're just there for the cameras). The trickier situations will be for countries like France and the US, where racing, not for points, but for selection, will come down to the wire to fill the remaining slot, and could start to put people in a hole (since that could well carry on a few weeks further than the qualifying period). That could even blow over into the relay, realizing that the remaining selections on both of those teams are likely to factor in the MTR picture (not to mention, these selections when contentious often come down to nasty appeals that pit "teammates" and even training partners against each other, and can fracture team dynamics for a race like the MTR. This is where decisive and early selection of a team can be helpful, so that any appeals and stuff can be sorted out well in advance of the games, so it's not fresh wounds... Either way, I think that the COVID lay off has injected a lot more drama into Tokyo, and likely resulting in both individual and relay races that are much more wide open and unpredictable than they would have been if they had gone ahead last year on schedule (but I truly feel for the athletes who had that 4 year cycle dialed in, and are now struggling to make it over the line because they missed their peak)...

Leeds will be the most exciting race in years. I am re-checking the start lists, just amazing

WOMEN
For podium: Zaferes, Spivey, Beaugraund, GTB, Learmonth, Holland, Flora
Outsiders: Potter, Lindemann, Klamer, Kasper, Kingma, Coldwell, Stanford.
and the guest star LCB

I cant see Spirig in the SL...so missing her, Knibb, Summer, Gentle (she is completely dissapeared)

MEN
For podium: KB, Geens, Luis, Bergere, J.Brownlee, A.Brownlee, Gomez, Birtwhistle, Yee, Wilde.
Outsiders: Pearson, Schomburg, Alarza, Van Riel, McElroy, Conninx
Just missing Mola,Iden, Myslawchuck, Schoeman and Murray (for obvious reasons)

Will be huge to see Yee against Alistair

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Gentle is pre-selected for Tokyo. International travel is forbidden at moment for Aussies. There are very limited reasons for travel and even more limited slots to get back into Australia.

She has been racing domestic races and appears to be going quite well.

Gustav Iden is out of Leeds.
He has virus (not Covid).
So he needs to rest and get well befre the last big push of training before Tokyo.

his racing is has been a bit underwhelming lately. how's he going?

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Is Eli Hemming in any real trouble of not staying inside the TOP 30 ranking considering the way everything is stacked up with start lists?

His last race wasn't good, otherwise 9 top 10 finishes from his last 10 ITU races he started is not too bad :)

I'm wondering if KB hit form too early, though.

I'm not sure Iden is quick enough over Olympic distance to get gold. Would love to see it, though.

Very excited for Leeds.

yeah, i guess i should have been more specific. at long course, of course, he's been doing just fine!

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Sadly GTB is out - injured.