I'm going to check the bookies for odd tomorrow, sure their will be money to be made as usual!

Odds To win Gold/To win a medal (courtesy of Skybet Luis 3/1 4/5
Mola 7/2 10/11
Yee 6/1 11/8
Brownlee 13/2 13/8
Blum 13/2 13/8
Birtwistle 14/1 7/2
Alrarza 16/1 9/2
Pearson 16/1 7/2
Schoeman 20/1 5/1
Gomez 20/1 5/1
Van Riel 20/1 5/1
Iden 25/1 7/1

Doesn't look like their are any huge money making opportunities there, I'm definitely having a punt on Gomez to medal, might go in on Blum to medal also.

If you want particular odds of any athlete just ask as they've list every athlete.

Women's odds To win gold/To medal

Zafares 11/4 4/6
GTB 10/3 4/5
Learmonth 4/1 5/6
Duffy 9/2 6/4
Holland 7/1 6/4
Rappaport 10/1 5/2
Spirig 12/1 7/2
Lindermann 16/1 4/1
Kingma 16/1 4/1
Knibb 25/1 6/1
Klammer 28/1 7/1
Beaugrand 40/1 10/1
Michel 40/1 10/1
Betto 66/1 16/1
Gentle 66/1 16/1

Duffy to win a medal will be almost like printing money so I'll defo be having a punt on that, Spirig to medal, I think Beaugrand and Gentle to medal are both worth a punt also.

Every bookies has Zafares favourite to win Gold, what do the bookies know that we here at ST don't?

Seriously - that surprises me too. I wouldn’t be surprised if she medaled, but nobody I’ve read/ heard has her as any sort of favorite…

I hope she does win gold.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

now that we know duffy is in top run shape, she has to be the favorite. that doesn't mean she will win but how can a FTP swimmer, who is the best biker who is in sub 34 shape not be the favorite going in?

i also don't understand why everything thinks the front groups will get caught by the packs. that didn't happen in the test event at either race. is it because the pack will have at least 3 domestiques at the front hammering away (along with the norweigans)? i really don't see the women's pack getting anywhere near the front because best cyclists will be in the front or will bridge up early on. i guess a lot depends if spirig has the second swim of her life (after her first swim of her life in rio).

Are you US based? Home athletes always get backed at the bookies which affects their odds more than their form, especially in sports without much of a market

If Alistair was racing I think the men's front pack would stay away, with the Norwegians and as you say possible domestiques chasing I don't see enough fire power in the front pack to stay away.

Duffy will get help in the front pack, Spirig is likely to do everything herself chasing will make a difference.

Duffy seems to be 4th favourite with the bookies which I do find odd, but might make me money.

Two British bookies have her favourite, I don't think they watch Triathlon, maybe calculate results over the last 10 Triathlons or something to come up with this?

Seems like the women’s group should have the bike power and motivation - Learmonth, Kingma, Knibb, maybe Zaferes. Gentle will help the chasers, but I would be impressed if they catch.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Throw in the mix, if you look historically, the luckiest bib number on the grid is #34 which has won more medals than any other over the history of the tri at the Olympics, which happens to belong to Georgia Taylor Brown...

After watching the mens race and all the turns on the bike, I have to think Duffy should be the heavy favorite. Not only was she dominant after Rio until a slew of injuries impacted a couple of years for her (seemingly healthy and fit again now), she's probably the best bike handler in the race. Even if she doesn't make the lead group of out the swim, I think it would be surprising if she doesn't catch them on the bike carrying more speed through the turns. And she's shown the best run form this year.

Now that the OG are done, onto the Canadian swing to wrap up this Championship season.

The lists for Montreal have shrunken significantly, with Olympic injuries, quarantines, etc. Looks like 40some starters for each event, so it will be interesting to see what happens for the qualifying round for the Eliminator. It looks like there are also 10 countries still on the list for the MTR on the sunday too.

Fuller lists for Edmonton as well, and decent U23 fields...

As of the moment, Duffy is on the list for both, So are Spivey, Zafares, Coldwell. GTB, Holland, Learmonth and Kingma are skipping Montreal, but racing Edmonton, Cassandre Beaugrand, Rachel Klamer are skipping both.

For the guys: Wilde, Luis, Birtwhistle, Van Riel, Geens, Vilaca (although he is racing U23 in Edmonton) are racing both, Pearson, McElroy, Blummenfelt, Brownlee & Yee are not on the Montreal list, but are on the Edmonton list at the moment. Schoeman, Mislawchuk, Murray, Mola, Gomez are skipping both.

No startlists yet for Hamburg, Bermuda & Abu Dhabi which are all part of the 2022 Championship season...

Interesting to see how World Tri's first Eliminator goes, some differences in their rules with Super League, but should still be interesting. Add in a pretty technical Montreal course, it should be exciting. Will also be interesting for Both Montreal and Edmonton if there are late scratches due to the bubble rules implemented by the Government of Canada (people's brains will be fully tickled with all the COVID tests...) (although for both races we should have a good idea of the final lists a week out, since the deadlines to enter the bubbles for Montreal is Sunday, and Edmonton is the Monday after Montreal, save for anyone who fails one of the tests and needs to scratch).

Duffy has already said she thinks she can be world champion as well as Olympic champion. Anyone who didn’t get to go to Olympics will be out to prove a point. Potter, Coldwell, Spivey and Van Coerden will be in with a chance of doing well in the series and earning a healthy bonus.

On the men’s side Yee and Blomenfeld have a chance of being WC so they will race each other. Wouldn’t surprise me if Sheldon is there to pace Yee back up to group if needed.

How crappy is the idea that the 2022 season starts in 2021. 2022 had the possibility of being the first, more normal season for a couple of years for the athletes. Now it begins in 2021 there will be mucked up seasons again for athletes from countries that still have travel restrictions and quarantines. I imagine the Aus athletes that managed to leave in May won't be still racing. Long time financially to still be away from home. Hope there are enough races in the real 2022 season that these races plus one or two others can be dropped or they will be again disadvantaged. I see what should be best years in careers really being stuffed up.

Can't remember anyone doing Oly Gold and the ITU champ in the same year? (Not since I've been following the sport anyway)

Sure someone will be in here to educate me if it's been done?

I would be surprised if Sheldon is there to domestique Yee. I think GB need get some guys on start lists and build them up if both Brownlees are now stepping away. Yee can't do a relay on his own moving forward.

Hoping we’ll see a lot more of Ben Dijkstra over the next or two, I know he’s been injured recently. Sam Dickinson will be another to make more appearances.

Not only is MTR a worry, but we’ll need at least one more (ideally two) with Yee in the top 30 come Paris 2024.

Exactly. Comm Games next year, they are probably wanting to see who can do what. Athletes need to race, training numbers mean not much.

I dont think so....definitely Lisa Norden was the closest to do it by some inches in London

men WC OLYMPICS
2000 Marceau Whitfield
2004 Docherty Carter
2008 Gomez Frodeno
2012 J.Brownlee A.Brownlee
2016 Mola A.Brownlee

women WC OLYMPICS
2000 Hacker Mc Mahon
2004 Taormina Allen
2008 Jenkins Snowsill
2012 Norden Spirig
2016 Duffy Jorgensen

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

In the men´s, IMO, Van Riel has a great chance to be WC this year....let´s see if Hayden Wilde allows him. Also wondering if Yee might have a chance if he wins in Edmonton. I discard KB if he is doing IM Frankfurt. If he skips IM, he is favourite no.1.

Women´s: Kingma is skipping Montreal, so all in Duffy´s hands...besides she´s got the grand final to secure it. Coldwell and Spivey might be the oher women on top given they race both in Montreal and Edmonton...both girls race well in supershort distance

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Good analysis.

1 Alex Yee. 2716
2 Kristian Blummenfelt. 2677
3 Marten Van Riel 2273

Kristian will have to beat Alex to be WC and Van Riel will have to beat them both. All of which are possible, so that is very close.

The women’s we won’t be able to analyse closer until after the first Canadian race. But I won’t be betting against Duffy!

I hope Coldwell and Spivey are on the podium.

Docherty did gold wc and silver Olympics in 04

It feels good to reply on this post from page #1.

Blummenfelt won the olympics.

Heia Norge :-)

The way the calendar is and w/ Tokyo in 2021, the USA qualification race is actually less than 2 years away. Is that correct? I thought the test event is approx 1 year prior to the games. That puts us around 22-23 months away from qualification.

Weird to think its that close.