Only if Royle is in top 8 or Crisanto is top 3.

Too late to sub any one in now. That can only happen in the early days of the start list. A withdrawal now spot goes to the first person on the wait list. If no one on the wait list maybe they could get one in, but good luck getting to Mexico in such short notice.
Irrelevant anyway as Hemming will already be 31st as Oceania Champs will move him out.

You're right about Justus Nieschlag for Germany, but Lisa Tersch didn't qualify at their test event, Anabel Knoll (raced NCAA for Queens) did. So it'll be Knoll and Lindemann, and Nieschlag (and I guess Schomburg?) for Germany.

Forgot about Royle's points at Leeds. Yip US are fucked.

Again, glad I don’t have to make that call!

If McElroy had been healthy all spring he’d be the easy choice as only be and Pearson are individual medal contenders. Looks like he’s doing better now and just made some tactical errors night being close to the front and getting stuck in the back when the pack split at Leeds.

I’d think you put him second in the relay so he potentially has feet to follow in the swim, right?

McDowell is very solid and would be my alternate.

McDowell.
2020 actually happened and Kevin was faster than Matt. Kevin didn't get any points for those races, but he has been the better athlete for over a year.
Matt had one truly amazing race.
He hasn't done anything nearly as consistent against the top level fields.

If you're looking for the 2nd relay spot, you're solving for "lowest chance fo F it up".
Matt has a very inconsistent swim and bike. Just look at Leeds. He barely made the group. Then got dropped off the back.
Kevin's bad swim/bikes are a lot better than Matts bad days.

Sure, Kevin might get out run by 3 seconds against Matt if he races it perfect, but they are handing off to Knibb, Summer, or Taylor (I'm assuming Taylor) and all of them can easily close that 3 second delta. But they can't close the 30-45 seconds that Matt might lose if he doesn't swim/bike at 100% of his level.

If I am not wrong, after Huatulco and the Oceanian cup, Australia got 3 spots, right? So US just 2 spots and Grajales out for the olympics? I just dont understand all the mess with the qualification. Australia with 3 spots mean they will pick Birtwhistle, William and Hausser (they will be thinking of the relay)

In the french GP, Beaugraund dominating, then Van Coevorden and Morier. As for the men, Bicsak back in shape and Gomez very close. I count 5 top favourites for tokyo in the ladies (Duffy,GTB,Learmonth, Kingma, Spirig), men? just such a big bunch (Pearson, Mylswachuck, Mola, Gomez, Luis, Geens, Van Riel, Schoeman, Blummenfelt, Wilde, Yee...and even not counting JB, Iden, Bergere etc

Sometimes the inconsistent swims can be dependant on how the athlete handles the physicality of the washing machine swim, .

juanillo wrote:

If I am not wrong, after Huatulco and the Oceanian cup, Australia got 3 spots, right? So US just 2 spots and Grajales out for the olympics? I just dont understand all the mess with the qualification. Australia with 3 spots mean they will pick Birtwhistle, William and Hausser (they will be thinking of the relay)

In the french GP, Beaugraund dominating, then Van Coevorden and Morier. As for the men, Bicsak back in shape and Gomez very close. I count 5 top favourites for tokyo in the ladies (Duffy,GTB,Learmonth, Kingma, Spirig), men? just such a big bunch (Pearson, Mylswachuck, Mola, Gomez, Luis, Geens, Van Riel, Schoeman, Blummenfelt, Wilde, Yee...and even not counting JB, Iden, Bergere etc

GB confirmed as

Holland/Learmonth/GTB
JB/Yee

Anyone know a date that USA will make their announcement?

Tend to agree, think Sophie Coldwell would be a better pick on current form. And worth remembering that Holland got her spot as a direct rresult of GTB and Learmonth getting themselves DQed in the test event!