ajthomas wrote:
I went through the standings, here is what it comes down to:
Hemming is 28th but it seems likely that Silva (29th) will pas shim. Royle (30th) will pass him with a good result (top 15) at Leeds. Lets just give that to Royle and then look at the rest.
31: Grajales: mathematically not possible. Even if Grajales wins his last race hemming noses him by a point.
32: Schilling is retired
33: Willian: not points races left
34: Fabian: would take a shocking result (podium) from someone who raced this weekend to a very middle of the mark result
35: Bishop - SEE BELOW
36 and on: no one with a chance
presuming Hemming gets passed by 29 and 30 only Bishop can knock out Hemming:
Leeds is a 1000 point race. A top 8 finish and Bishiop passes Hemming. A top 5 finish and Hemming will need to podium in Huatalco to retain his spot.
There certainly are 7+ athletes who are better than Bishop racing in Leeds. But Bishop has 2 big things going for him: He isn't going to have a domestique. He is going to have a personal peloton. GB is the host nation in Leeds there are 7 GB athletes on the start line. I mean shoot, you could have AB pulling Bishop to the first pack and JB and Yee working to slow the main pack down. I am telling you if Yee is running with Blu and Gomez for the win he will pull up lame. And then on the other side you have Belgium, France and the US. They DO NOT want GB to get 3 guys (US for obvious reason, the other two because of the relay implications). I don't know how deep the team tactics will go, but having 7 athletes on the home course fighting for one guy and a half dozen others working against a single guy... Wow!
The cool scenario is a 9th or 10th place finish for Bishop and the Huatalco race becomes a heads up match between Hemming and Bishop for the final spot. I suppose that is what I am rooting for.
The tricky part for Bishop is motivation... The federation is putting in a push, and he's racing himself into the ground for a slot that he has no chance of actually occupying on the OG start line. I assume there's some financial incentives in play for him to move into the top 30, but that's an odd place to be as an athlete. I too am hoping that Bishop gets a decent result in Leeds, so that we have a head to head showdown in Mexico between him in Hemming... That said, no offense intended to our american friends, I'm rooting for GB to get that 3rd slot, because having AB and Yee on the startline is more exciting than Eli Hemming, or whomever USAT names as the 3rd slot (Assuming that with McElroy gets the 2nd slot).