From a Norwegian podcast hosted by Gustav Iden’s brother Mikael.

The Norwegians will race as much as possible now to get used to competition. 2020 was a year with very limited racing. And practice makes perfect.

They will have a big training bulk before the olympics.

A lot of work has been done regarding heat acclimatation. They have done tests so the athletes know how temperature can affect power output on the bike and run speed. This makes it easier to not push too hard on the bike.

The team has been outside of Norway since January and will be abroad through the olympics.

In 2000 Hamish Carter was in dominating form for the two races prior to the Olympics and ended up well down the field in Sydney. All depends on how you manage peaking.
Obviously he learned for 2004.

LCB on the startlist for Leeds WTCS.

Interesting.

She should come out of the water in a much better spot than Cam Wurf when he tried jumping into ITU racing. Not sure why she'd be doing it, and pretty sure her run won't be close to the top women.


On a separate topic, is there a list somewhere of athletes who have qualified and how many spots each country currently has? I know that some countries are on the cusp of 2 or 3 athletes, and the last few qualifying races will determine this.

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

I was under the impression she had originally wanted to race DL and Tri UK never gave her a shot. Or what she deemed an appropriate shot. That could be 100% inaccurate.

She's a hell of a swimmer. But I don't imagine she'll pull away from the field.
We'll find out how her transitions, handling, and accelerating stack up pretty quickly.

Good to see her get a chance.

She did much better than I expected in Superleague, her and Learnmoth could do a lot of damage on that swim and get a decent enough lead on the bike, If Coldwell can stay with them on the swim all the better.

No Spirig on that start list (even though she did mention she was racing Leeds) to pull them back, but Duffy is on their to compensate so some interesting dynamics.

Has she raced any itu stuff before,? seeing no results
And yes there is an Olympic ranking simulation under rankings on the world tri webpage. It shows where individuals are ranked and how the numbers are stacking up. Doesn't state who has been selected though, remembering athletes qualify a spot, the country can choose to give that spot to someone else.

https://triathlon.org/about/download_file/male_olympic_simulation
https://triathlon.org/about/download_file/female_olympic_simulation
https://triathlon.org/about/download_file/nation_summary_olympic_simulation


Regarding Lucy, I have a feeling she won't swim away from folk but may stretch things out somewhat. I'm very curious to see her technical skills on a road bike as this could be a problem if there has been a lack of pack riding and hard group rides. On the run she wont be amazing but could put something solid enough to have a respectable finish if there is a gap for the lead group into T2.


British Triathlon have been very reluctant to give her a shot, but she is now definitely getting fast-tracked straight to WTCS without having to run the gauntlet of Continental and World cup races. I guess it will be interesting to see where she finishes but I have a feeling this race will show that while she definitely can hang with the ITU girls, she won't be the star that she is in LC.

I don't think it is so much BTF not giving her a shot, it is Lucy not wanting to start where every one else has to. Do conti cups and race well and qualify WC. Race WC well and if enough points qualify WTS starts. In a normal year and race every country only has max 5 starts with athletes given starts based on their ranking. She just wanted to be given someone elses start spot. With this being a covid and olympic year and some still not racing, the start list isn't full and GB have been given extra spots to fill the void.

Plus, I guess, embarrassment of the riches syndrome. GB at the moment are already leaving home athletes such as Sophie Coldwell and Non Stanford, who both in the own right could be medal hopefuls if they had made it to Tokyo. They don't NEED Lucy (in ITU), she may be icing on the cake, a great story and live experiment. I think she'd have the potential to do really well if she switched. The run is still the main question mark. Can she run at that top level for a full 10K? She could hang in the super fast Super League format, but an Olympic distance 10k is another animal to conquer!

I think the Superleague Arena games might be a bit misleading on the run given the treadmills. But I know from her Parkrun times she is no dummy over 5km. Like you say if this goes well she might be tempted to commit to ITU. But that would still require doing the less glamorous races as she will need to at some point.

Whats happened to Lucy Hall these days? I'd have loved to have seen her start too, LCB, Learnmoth, Hall and Coldwell potential their to swim away from the rest and make a gap stick especially on that Leeds course, LCB could have end up on the podium on her debut.

You got any info on the new course? Saw the maps but don't know Leeds that well in terms of how tough it could be?

was going to ask the same - haven't seen her in a bit but i'm a fan. i think she came up injured at daytona (or was it miami?), but not sure what's happening lately. . .

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

The bike course is 9 laps of a 4.2km lap within the park. It starts off up the same hill out of transition as the 2019 race did. Mostly climbing to the edge of the park near Tropical World. Then instead of heading onto Street Lane as in previous years it doubles back down Princes Avenue - this will be a gradual straight forward downhill. Then there is a sharp turn back into the park alone Park Avenue which is a slight uphill to start. There is then a detour up West Avenue (slightly uphill), U-turn at the end and back down onto Park Avenue. This then descends steeply back to transition. Hard to know how much momentum it will be possible to keep through transition before starting the climb on the second lap. I'd say overall the climbing is more significant than the technicality.

Another factor is that the final lap continues about half-way up the hill to T2 which is at a separate site in front of the Mansion House. The run then sets out up the remainder of the hill to Princes Avenue and does an out and back down that road. This will be a distinct drag on the way back before turning back into the park and down to transition - 4 laps of 2.5km. Definitely tougher than the flat courses which we often get.

She´s never raced ITU before!! Dont get me wrong, I am passionated with ITU, IM, whatever format, and Lucy is a great active for the sport but even she can swim bike run well all these girls do that in the ITU standard in a regular basis. Transitions are hugely important, placing and riding in a peloton is just other business different from IM or Challenge racing (change of paces, back of bunch´s lashes at the turning points, risk of fall...) plus running almost 3.05 the 1st km. It is almost just other sport.... If she makes a top 3 I´ll make no comments in SLT for one year :D

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Just wanted to pint out there are some names under the radar for Tokyo and IMHO they are likely to medal

Women:
Duffy: well, she in not an unknown, but everybody is talking about team GB and Americans.... If she has the run fitness, she is favourite no.1. Can swim in the 1st pack, one of the best cyclists, top run if she is ok
Coldwell (if Learmonth is not going): She can be up there. I like this girl a lot and has raised the last 2 years
Lindemann: She did not race in Yokohama but she´s got the legs to do a great run (german champ in 3000m indoors)

Men:
Gomez: my favourite no.1 in case AB is not healthy and not going. He´s got the experience, the wish and he is really focused. Can swim amongst the best and be in the front group with Luis...the question is, may he outrun the frenchman? I think he can

Schoeman: Clearly in progression. Top swimmer...with heat he can perform really well as we saw in Cozumel and Rio 2016

Schomburg: If he saves something for the run in the front pack not making the silly runaway he might give us a surprise....

Right seeing the start list for Arzachena: AB is in...KB and Iden are in, again (norwegians might be burning too many matches???). The women´s field is clearly weaker this time. All the bullets for Leeds....
Hope the live broadcast is better than Lisbon that was s****

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Im going to see what odds I can get on Schoeman, he can raise his game for the big days, as you say performs well in the heat, a very decent 5th in Yokohama, defo my dark horse pick at the moment.

Gomez needs to be in 2012 Olympics running form to win it. Can he get there at his age? I don't know.

Last year's Azarchena's broadcast was decent (for a World Cup level race). Much better than what we got in Lisboa.

What is swim away from everyone? 20-30seconds? Just lead out the entire time?

Based on what she swam the 1500 i think she is capable of gapping the field. I doubt there are other women who can go under 17 in the 1500 LC. I suspect she will show her swim dominance, but what that looks like is anyone’s guess.

The right circumstances and I could see a top 12 finish or so?

I doubt there are other women who can go under 17 in the 1500 LC. //

You are thinking too narrow, and looking at a pool race. A good drafter can save up to 5 seconds per 100, multiply that by 15 and you only need ladies able to swim low to mid 18's to possibly hang on her feet. And since the start of ITU is straight across and it takes a couple 100 for the line to form, many get to drop back and still be in line. I think there will be ladies with her on the swim, just not sure how many. And reality is that she want there to be some with her too, any gap she has will be eaten up in a few miles anyway. I could see maybe a surge towards the end to get 5 to 10 seconds, just so she can get transitioned and settled in when the first riders come up. make them work really hard in the T1 so that an actual gap forms, and they have a legit bike break...

this predictions are nutso. gomez THE favorite? yes, he still can swim and bike with the top dogs but tokyo will come down to the run. he's 38 and doesn't have the wheels to run with them anymore. in lausanne, when he was 2 years younger, he got dropped big time on the run with a 32+ split. tokyo isn't a course where he can get in a small break with varga, the Bs and schoeman and then hold off the faster runners. the fast guys will either be there or within striking distance due to the easy bike course and they won't have trashed legs. he's one of the all-time greats and may be able to podium but there's no way he is the favorite with luis and blum in the race. never count AB out either but he hasn't been in top form since he won leeds in 2017. of course this is the olympics and, as noted above, screwy things often happen at the olympics so maybe some dark horse sneaks in for the gold.

I don't disagree with you, as it's probably more likely that you are right. But I still think there's a chance that both Alistair and Javier (who know what it takes) can pull something up their sleeve (and nail that singular preparation for the big event). For Alistair of course, the question is will he even have the chance to show it.

Also, the Olympic bike course is sneaky not as easy as you make it seem to be. Lots of tight corners, 'bumps', narrow stretches of 'road', etc, that made the test event anything but a ride in the park.

In interviews he claims to have that form. Whether it is true or not, I don't know.

Im prety sure Learnmoth will be able to keep her feet and Coldwell Learnmoths, she's going to need girls with her on the bike.

If they get Duffy in that lead group they can put enough distance between them for LCB to get a very respectable result, I think her race hinges on whether Spirig turns up, if she races she's going to bring that chase group up.