Lock_N_Load wrote:
Tri3 wrote:
COVID-19 is far more than "a bad case of the flu." And the impact it will have on those needing care from the healthcare system if there is a peak surge demand on hospitals will be devastating.
Estimate presented to the American Hospital Association of the COVID-19 potential:
-96 million cases overall in the US.
-4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
-1.9 million ICU admissions
-480,000 deaths.
-hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times greater than a severe flu season
https://www.businessinsider.com/...pitalizations-2020-3 Compared to 2019 flu season in the US
-35.5 infections
-490,600 hospitalizations
-49,000 ICU admissions
-34,200 deaths
This is why it is so important that we all do our part to protect the most vulnerable by staying home. It's not about us. It's about who and how many we may infect.
This is a case of worst case scenario building on itself. The more we look at it the worse it gets. It's an issue with this generation and our obsession with social media and the 24 hour new cycle. SARS, Swine Flu, and all other of these viruses would have been declared pandemics also if they had broken out today. So, no, I don't believe any of these numbers as they are probably a compounding of CYA on CYA because that is what our society is now. A few months from now we will be talking about COVID-19 the way we talk about the Y2K idiocy. Freak out if you want to but that attitude is the real problem...
No, this is nowhere near a worst case scenario.
This estimate appears to be using figures of 29.4% infection and 0.5% mortality.
Even without any virus mutations or unforeseeable issues, we could easily see figures more like 50% infection and 1.5% mortality.
That would be:
164 million infected
16.4 million needing hospitalisation
2.45 million deaths
And even that MAY not be worst case.
I haven't seen anything solid in terms of a real mortality rate. Hopefully it's well under 1%, but that would require that we're currently massively undercounting the total infected number. It could be over 2%, especially if health services become completely ineffective and everyone in need of ICU treatment becomes a likely death. The exact figures are not fully clear yet, but the fact that it's potentially catastrophic IS clear. Anyone like yourself pretending otherwise is a dangerous fool.