Lets talk about IMC 2013.
I've taken a look at the photos and splits and have drawn some conclusions. Perhaps people familiar with the run course can fact check this and see if it makes sense. If I have made any errors in my analysis or conclusions please let me know. I'm trying to look at this in a fair and objective manner, so I want this to be correct. Summary:
Pictures taken during Ironman Canada 2013 appear to show Julie Miller at the 6.9k/26.6k location at 9:01:18 race time. Depending on whether these were taken during her first or second lap, the time established would require either 3:15/km for 35.3 km (photo taken first lap) or 4:06/km for 26.2km (photo taken second lap). Neither of these options seem plausible as both are faster than the winning female professional. Background:
Due to recent disqualifications and questions about Julie Miller’s finishing times, it was decided to investigate the 2013 results. In this event she placed 10th in her age group, but as with Ironman 2015, she did not have any run splits. This brings into question whether or not she completed the required 2 laps of the run course.
In 2013 the run time recorded in the official results is 3:42:19. This is 5:16min/km average pace and does not draw any particular attention like the one recorded in 2015, but with no intermediate splits it requires further investigation. The objective was to find a picture with other athletes and establish a time for that picture. From this time cases can be tested against her run start and finish times.
This analysis will only consider objective and verifiable information. With that in mind, the source data will be clearly referenced and linked where possible so that one can verify themselves.
One might see similarities in this report to the “Evernote document” for Ironman 2015, but the two are not connected. This has not been written by or with the consent of that author. Analysis:
The image below is a screen shot of page 5185 of Finisher Pix
race photos from Ironman Canada 2013. It depicts a wooden bridge overlooking water. Its location can be established to be very close to the 6.9k (26.2k second loop) timing mat due to the convergence of numbers in the results for the pictured athletes (see table below). There are a number of athletes in each other’s pictures, showing that the photos were taken in rapid succession which is backed up by the close times recorded at 6.9k or 26.2k.
Julie Miller is visible in images with both #2344 and #280. #280’s bib is not visible, but his arm marking is, and a search for #280
clearly shows the same person. Athlete #280 started the run before #2344, so we can conclude that #280 is on his second lap and #2344 is on his first. With their finish times we can also conclude that this is the only time they would have been going in the same direction at the same time. Based on this and the fact that their split times are within one second of each other we can assume this picture was taken very close to the timing mat and for the sake of simplicity will assign 9:01:18 to this picture.
Split times from published results available on Irontracker:
Having established that these athletes are at that location together, at or very close to 6.9/26.2k, Julie Miller is either crosses 6.9k at 9:01:18 (first lap) or crosses 26.2k at 9:01:18 ( second lap).
Case 1 – this was taken during Julie’s first lap
If it was Julie’s first lap she would have covered 6.9km in 1:47:22, or 15:34/km and the remaining 35.3km in 1:54:57, or 3:15/km. This equates to a 2:17:25 marathon pace for 35.3km and would qualify for the olympic marathon if maintained for 42.2k. The winning female professional ran this section at a 4:09/km pace.
Case 2 – this was taken during Julie’s second lap
If this was Julie’s second lap, then she would have covered the first 26.2k in 1:47:22, or 4:06/km and the remaining 16k in 1:54:57, or 7:11/km. This equates to a 2:52:56 marathon pace for 26.2km. The winning female professional ran this section at 4:11/km pace.
In order for the posted time to be correct Julie Miller must have run the first 26.2km of Ironman Canada 2013 at a pace faster than the winning female (4:11/km in the same section). This is not consistent with other results posted by her or triathletes in general. Evidence of this nature suggests that Julie did not run the full course that day and should be removed from the finishers results with a Disqualification.
*edit with correction from bx3