Sagan will work. He's worked before and was regarded as not a "smart rider" at times. Since he's learned to hide, things have changed a bit. Boonen oftentimes did too much but that's his bad ass Belgian ethic- garnered decent results, I'd say. He ripped Degenkolb last year for sitting on him the whole race. So TB has done his own editorializing from time to time.

I think Sagan would shoulder a load if he had 2 or 3 or 4 guys who were willing to commit to working with him (and not sit and look at each other) and risk dragging him in and getting beat in a sprint. But the team DSs are screaming at them to be patient and don't help Sagan and there goes the race. Lately, most of the guys around were QS and they just took a big dump on the chase.

He's in a tough spot. These guys around him are so wary of working with him. Half of it is that, like Cancellara, he can make you blow just keeping up with his pulls. You're done by the time you're there but at least you're there.

I guarantee that he'll have help Sunday if there's a legit (probably blue kitted) threat up the road. Enough is enough. I think the other teams will make this race very exciting. I don't think anyone will play it too cute coming in. I see seriously aggressive riding.

Or not. Terpstra may just say, "I spit on you fools!", and ride away again.

You nailed it near end. Everyone else has to weight letting QS ride away for another win or take chances with Sagan. Can't imagine all the other hitters will be willing to do that yet again.

My picks for Roubaix:

VanMarcke
Stuyven
Sagan

Terpstra
Van Aert

No disrespect to Terpstra. I think Terpstra is the overwhelming favourite (has the form and legs), but I think all the teams had enough and will race negatively against them.

I don't know what to make of P-R. Funny how as this classics season goes on and we get a better sense of who's on form, the picking just gets harder. The way things are going it seems dumb to go against QS. But it also seems imprudent to go against Sagan and Van Avermaet, despite their relative lack of results thusfar... might be that they've planned their spring classics campaign around Roubaix.

In a way it's a little offputting to see QS dominate the way they have, but in another way its refreshing because for having such a stacked classics team, they've done a hell of a job over the last few years screwing things up royally. This year they seem to have it dialed, so I'm not going to beta against them.

Gilbert, GvA, Stybar
Sagan, Van Aert

I've had a blast overthinking this race. The race itself may prove to be anti climactic.

I'm going to be watching from the get go. Establishing the break is crazy to watch and the rest of the race really is effected by who gets in it. I'd like to see Bora get someone in it. If they don't, they'll certainly try to send Oss later on or at least have him jump on any QS moves. Peter Sagan is the best bike racer in the world and I'd like to see him win this- but racin' ain't fair.

I can't believe Vaughters isn't texting Phinney telling him to go for broke. If he can get out front he can really help Sep! and Langeveld.

Mads is going to smash it for Trek, ergo, Degenkolb and Stuyvens.

BMC won't factor. GvA has to go it alone. But he can. He's made for this shit.

QS has to be made to chase. Attack them or be squashed by the blue meanies. If QS has to run it down, the sprinters will sit on and be in it to win it. Demare and Kristoff. Nobody is even talking Kittel but he's shown he can do more than straight up sprint. Hell, the much maligned AMERICAN Tyler Farrar, a very accomplished GT stage winner, used to ride a pretty good Roubiax. He just never grasped that there's no whining in bike racing, but he was a sprinter and that's their jam.

Race will be as fast as last year. I heard there could be some rain but doesn't look like it. 70 degrees and sunny.

Sagan
Stybar
Sep!
Gilbert
van Aert

I feel you on this race, its a crap shoot and amazing to watch.

Someone had mentioned somewhere here that everyone's strategy would be to shut down any moves by QS. I think that will be the mentality for PR.

Easier said then done, though. When Terpsta attacked at Flanders, I think there were maybe only 3-4 guys at that point capable of working to shut it down. And Stybar and Gilbert were in the middle of those 3-4 guys.

Regardless of the way I think it will go, the outcomes that would make me happiest would be Sagan or Van Aert winning this one. Pederson and Stybar would also be deserving victors the way they've been riding this spring.

Sagan said what every other contender knows. If allowed to dictate the race, QS will pick it apart; they have 4-5 guys who can win. So unless it becomes mano-e-mano selective, there will have to be some cooperation for it to not be another notch in Lefevre’s bedpost.

Agreed.

Part of me is also rooting for Haussler to have a good result. I always liked him and having had such an unfortunate 2017, would be nice to see him do well too.

I am surprised that so many people think QS has super,depth for Roubaix. Ya Stybar has shown his pedigree on the cobbles, but Gilbert? Other than Flanders last year, where it is hard to imagine him winning without Sagan's crash, he has always been more,of an Ardennes rider. Terpstra doesn't seem like he has ever had a dominant performance at PR. The year he won he was part of a group that caught the leaders near the end and I think he benefitted from everyone watching Boonen while he slipped away. Maybe Lampier?

I think they will certainly ride well as a team, but I only see Stybar making it into a select group. Team tactics don't work very well if you have Stybar with GVA and Sagan and the rest of the team is 1:30 behind.

roubaix:

Demare
Kristoff
Stybar

GVA
Langeveld

Sep, Kristoff, Stybar
Langeveld, Stuyven

Sagan, Terpstra, Vanmarcke

Stybar, Stuyven

Just rode this mother yesterday and crap shoot is right. Holy shit. These cobbles are insane and the only conclusion I can draw is that you have to favour a team with more options like quickstep have, because the game you are playing is a game of fortune and probability.

That said my 10 yr old Spesh Allez survived the day without damage with a 16 spoke front wheel. No punctures either. My body is totally fucked though.

152k left, crash on the first section of pave, GvA has to chase back as does about half the peloton....already nuts

Even though GVA had team mates crash and Kung abandoned, I still thought GVA was caught out of position.

120k......looks like QS wants to catch the break sooner than later and start sending attacks....Keisse on the front......Bora in very good shape, looks like, EF too....it'll be interesting to see how QS gets marked

wtf was up with that moto pacing sunweb and gilbert tru arenberg?

motos drive me nuts...

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
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one rider may have died.........so fucking bad........prayers

I just heard but missed his name, fingers crossed all’s ok

eff... hopes he makes it

His name is Michael Goolaert; possible cardiac arrest...

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@sailorsam, where have you been? the pick'em game ain't the same without you

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awfully long leash they are affording Gilbert... Theunissen was a former U23 Paris-Roubaix champ, I believe

Sagan needs this to come back together before he’s out of teammates. If they do, at least Gilbert will be much less concern

Kristoff looks like he's not going away. Stybar going? Looks like they're setting up Terpstra?