McNulty wrote:
dsmallwood wrote:
Gilbert is wicked strong; he’ll be one to watch the next two outings fan-boy speaking, PG does look strong and his tactics seem on. that doesn't mean he's gonna win but it does mean he's gonna blow *$#! up.
I know he wanted MSR as part of his resume. It will be interesting to see if "adding" PR competes with his defense of the Ronde.
for the rest, I think GVA has to be all-in on the Ronde. ditto Sep. Peto sticks with his "win them all" approach.
the true wild cards will be Kwi, Stybar, and Terps. I would look for them to instigate.
What I love about PG is his smart aggression. He's always thinking, always racing and can ride for others. I said it before, he made that race, drilling the front group to make it stick. Without his will, they may well have been caught. It wasn't a done deal for a while. There were some guys pretty shattered and on the fence about going all in on it.
He's like the Contador of the classics, always racing, sometimes just on instinct.
What I love about Sagan now is his patience. A couple of years ago he might have tried to bust up that group. He knew he had the winning hand yesterday whereas he wasn't so sure 2 years ago. They were done if he went to the line "fresh"....relative term, of course.
And how about the crazy Dutch bastards on Roompot? Love seeing those guys in that group.
Sagan to win Roubaix- may be his toughest win. He won't have the climbing to select out the bigger boys and a few tough sprinters. And luck is huge.
Hills rule people out based on w/kg, and the reason one can attack from the front when climbing is that the benefit of drafting is reduced. The selection on cobbles riding isn't as stark, but drafting nonetheless becomes much less of an issue. Selection on those cobbled sectors are made at low 20's mph, often less. A cat-4 could follow wheels at those speeds, as the aero cost is usually ~150-200 watts. The reason why people need to dial it to 450W to get to the low 20's on the cobbles is because most of the power goes to overcoming rolling resistance, and that additional 250-300W is something everyone has to expend, regardless if one is breaking the wind or following.
Whereas on flat asphalt, the drafter does 300W while the puller does 450W, on the cobbles, the drafter need to do closer to 375W in order to follow someone pulling at 450W. Add in the long distance and the muscular fatigue from riding on the cobbles, and the fact that Crr is mass dependent, selections can still be made by attacking, even from the front.