martman wrote:
I think if the others could have went when Nibali went, they would have. Probably wasn't a choice. Long race and fatigue. Such an exciting finish.
Wonder if Cav will call it a career. How many crashes can a body take?
Marty
I doubt it. In the past few years, attacks on the hill (that's what the term "Poggio" means) closer to the base usually got sniffed out, either at the top of the hill or on the flat run-in. There was supposedly a direct headwind (from the southwest), and they thought that any attempt would be futile, especially given that the peloton had been eating wind the whole day. Add to that Nibali's form (he got gapped by Sagan et al. in that classics-like Stage 6 of Tirreno), and people essentially thought it harmless.
What they didn't expect was that a) Nibali was on good form and b) the wind direction changed slightly to make it just a crosswind, so that it would have been harder to close down. Nibali's teammates also did a great job of temporarily blocking the road to delay the response any further, and by the time people had a chance to respond, it got cagey (as in one big contender was on the wheel of another big contender), which further aided the escape. Sagan is probably still smarting from getting beat in small-group sprints, which is why he elected to have Oss do the chasing (and wait for the sprint) as opposed to respond. There was also no concerted chase until FDJ took it up with about 1.5 km remaining. All this aided the attack.
This takes nothing away from Nibali though. Avg speed (including when he sat up) of the last 2km was 30 mph; last 1km 32 mph; last 500m an amazing 34 mph. To up the tempo when his muscles were soaked in lactic acid is simply amazing.