You're probably right, I just wanted to keep it fun around here!

Correct...when there is a crash inside of 3 km on a flat finish stage, everybody in the group, whether you crash or not, gets the same time as the fastest finisher in that group. Therefore, there is no reason to fake a crash other than to make yourself look like an idiot.

What I hope happens tomorrow? A big break forms that has a marginal lead over the Finestre. The Finestre is ridden by the GC group with a hard tempo that sheds most of the GC teammates and you're left with a group of 8 or so that summits together. Then Froome and/or Pozzovivo attacks on the Sestriere to bridge up to teammates from the break and isolates Yates or Dumoulin with 50 km to go. Big change in the GC for first or second.

What I think is going to happen tomorrow? The stage is so hard that they ride conservatively over the Finestre and Sestriere, then leave all the action to the final climb. Time gaps for sure, but the break stays away and no time bonuses. Froome and Pozzovivo will attack here while Dumoulin TTs the last 5 km minimizing his losses, if any to either of them. It's just a matter of whether Yates recovers from today, or has another iffy day...or worse.

Yep, it would not be fun to be Simon Yates for the next 24 hours....

Aru kicked Schachmann's ass in the TT. :)

Is that right? From my reading of the text, if he had stayed upright and given no appearance of having actually been involved, but then popped somewhere in the last 3K and became detached from the group he was with, he'd get assigned a worse time. I could be wrong, though...wording is a little ambiguous.

I assumed he was just knackered or sick and fancied stopping there and then rather than getting mixed up in the frenetic final kms. Maybe garner some sympathy and be first on the massage table. I was also assuming he was a domestique who wouldn't care about time anyway, can't imagine a GC contender taking a chance for a cheeky lie down during the race.

*unless Italian. :)

If there were no bonuses TD would be winning, they need a TT time bonus :). This makes for a fun last two days. Froome trying to move into 3rd and TD trying for the win. Froome and TD have the incentive to work together.

You don't have to go down, you just have to be "impacted." Or at least from this example of Bradley Wiggins, just put your foot down. But I don't even think putting your foot down is a requirement. It's not like the UCI is going to review the video tape and note down all 100 riders that got caught behind a crash to see if they actually went down or put a foot down, or scraped their elbow on a barrier or something.

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/...kilometre-rule-41520

Schachmann is a savage.


Tomorrow is a perfect stage for ambush. If Sky rides flat out to make as hard as possible and Yates is isolated then it could be interesting. Seems likely Froome and Pozzovivo go on attack no matter what. Whether it plays to TD's hands by Yates having to make a choice should be key factor.

Let's say Yates gets dropped and it's Domulin vs Froome on the last climb in an every man for himself situation. Do you think Froome can put a few minutes on Domulin? I think he can if he's having a good day.

The last climb is 7.2 km at 9.1%. A "few" minutes implying 3 minutes would be a tough ask unless Dumoulin completely implodes...which is possible if they put in a really hard effort to drop Yates early in the stage. It's also possible that Froome may have a strong teammate with him at the time...maybe Poels stays with him or Henao is in the break and drops back while Dumoulin doesn't have any teammates. That could provide a scenario where Dumoulin is inclined to work hard on the descent and slight uphill leading to the final climb while Froome is allowed to sit in while one of his teammates works with Dumoulin.

Kind of a perfect storm though...I don't think Dumoulin would bury himself that deep.

Dumoulin has the true pedigree of a TTer when climbing. He doesn't seem to change speeds like Froome or Yates but he can tap out a pretty crazy tempo that won't bleed much time.

How much more does Domulin weigh than Froome? Dom looks like a beast, but he may be deceptively light.

I would agree that his style doesn't bleed as much time than if you were more of a punchy climber. We are talking in huge what ifs already, but assuming Froome has a chance to put "a few minutes" into Dumoulin, it isn't going to be Froome attacked and Dumoulin burned matches trying to stay on him. It's going to have to be that Froome TTs the last climb 3 minutes faster than Dumoulin because he's shattered at that point and Froome is relatively fresh. Certainly possible, but seems like a fairy tale. How hard the Finestre is ridden does leave some possibility though.

I think Dumoulin will do well this stage...it's really more about how Yates will respond.

Whatever happens for the rest of this Giro (unless Froome takes back a massive amount of time on both Dumoulin and Yates), it seems that Dumoulin is the beneficiary of the Sky train for the most part.

I also think that the Colle della Finistre favours Froome's spinning in a low gear and his mountain biker pedigree on the gravel. This should be interesting. It will be interesting to see if the bigger guys have better traction on the gravel on their road wheels or if they sink more into it. Seems like Finistre would be a good reason to go at the low end of the psi range.

Dev

Some pics to get warmed up for Finistre:

Contador 2015



Aru





Giro 2015 again










Giro 2011?

Max was 35th at LBL riding in support of everyone, pretty much. Just picks up a GT stage at 24. Will be interesting to see who he becomes as a rider, especially at QS.

Mighty spikey today.
Tired riders, lots of changes today.

The official Giro app has Dumoulin at 1.85cm and 69kg, with Froome at 1.86cm and 67.5kg.

However, as with Hollywood celebrities' ages, I'd take those figures with a pinch of salt

Yates getting gapped early on Finistre...barely hanging onto teammate Nieve....or is he faking it like LA vs Ullrich?

This is not faking it....gap already at 30 seconds with 75% of the Finistre to go. He could lose 5 min at this rate.

How the heck am I going to get any work done? Sky asthma train already puts >1min on Yates.

Wow...I need to pause work and watch this.

They have not reached the gravel and the asthma train has put 2 min on Yates with Dumoulin and Pozzovivo (sp?) in tow!!!!