Man i love the Giro, i think it’s the best grand tour.

I do too. Unfortunately, this year will be less exciting with the Sky train which is a real drag.

I don't know, that Sky start list doesn't exactly strike terror in me. And Sky hasn't looked good in the Classics, even by Sky standards for Classics.

(Froome aside)

weezer. i like it. is that your own?

I'm not so worried about the Sky train as much as the lack of "animators" in this year's Giro. Without Nibali, Quintana, or Contador...who's going on the long range attacks? The Giro is generally set up with nastier climbs on the mountain stages that rewards early action and smaller GC groups. I don't really see the field comprising of those types of GC riders though. TD and Froome are much more steady state guys. Pinot I imagine is going to be stage hunting to prepare for the TdF. Not sure about how Aru is running this year.

Somehow the Giro tends to work itself out and be great racing though.

of course....all original material from McNutty on ST....

I just created my velogames.com team

Looks like the Slowtwitch league from last year is still there.

League Code: 521835710

Good work, McNulty.

Got to throw out to Mike Woods too. Will be interesting to see if he can build on Vuelta and Liege successes.

I don't know, that Sky start list doesn't exactly strike terror in me. And Sky hasn't looked good in the Classics, even by Sky standards for Classics.

(Froome aside)

Also curious to see dynamic of Froome likely having to go on attack just to come even, considering how TD smoked him in worlds ITT last year.

Too bad Jungle Bob is lining up here, would be interesting with his form, even as a stage hunter.

I mean we have Mt. Etna, Zoncolan, Jerusalem TT, Stage 16 ITT, Sestrieres/Bardonechia, and Cervina/Zermatt...that's the last climb of the Giro, 19 km to the summit finish with a few 12 percents...Froome could easily have Dumoulin on the ropes and Nibali should be attacking like a madman on his final chance.

Who decides and how do they decide what the "Queen Stage" is....and can I put my two cents in for Stage 19 with the mtn top finish and the brutal, gravel climb mid way?

PS. I'm still on the fence about Hoogerland

there's 3 of us decide that.

....RE: Ai_1, I think Vegni is just so sure that Froome will win this one.

Not sure what to think about this if true, would this be unprecedented?

http://www.velonews.com/2018/05/giro-ditalia/giro-director-uci-assured-us-froome-wouldnt-stripped-giro-win_464992

Lots of ways this Giro can go. The Froome vs Dumoulin thing is obvious, though I don't really know that either one has shown they're coming into this with great form. Lots of possibilities for who else could reveal themselves as contenders. Mitchelton-Scott have a few good cards to play, so does Astana. EF Education First - Drapac p/b Cannondale (had to write it all out) seem to be doing the opposite of what they did at the Vuelta (where they had Woods as a stage hunter, but switched into GC mode part way through), so he'll start with GC aspirations and switch to stage hunting if it's not looking good for him... the lack of TT mileage plays into his hands here (and against Froome and Dumoulin).

Lots of other exciting riders who can go for some stage wins, and of course, the Giro being the Giro, unexpected stuff will for sure happen. Should be great.

As of now he is assumed to be innocent, he has the legal right to race. My understanding Is that even if he is given a ban this result would stand. I tried to look up the specific rules and could not find them. This whole doping case is stupid and killing the sport.

I just created my velogames.com team

Looks like the Slowtwitch league from last year is still there.

League Code: 521835710

It’s GT time. Seems pretty wide open, what with Tom “Wait Up” Domoulin just rounding into form and Chris “Weezer” Froome looking less like a super freak. Expect the unexpected at the Giro. Snow, dysentery in the ranks, podium babes who don’t mind being called podium babes, it has it all. Abondanza.
Let’s chop it up.

As of now he is assumed to be innocent, he has the legal right to race. My understanding Is that even if he is given a ban this result would stand. I tried to look up the specific rules and could not find them. This whole doping case is stupid and killing the sport.[/quote

The UCI tweeted later, that "they are not in a position make that call", it's complicated.
https://cyclingtips.com/...o-result-will-stand/

It comes down to the UCI anti-doping tribunal in concert with WADA rules.

I predict Froome will be stripped of his Vuelta result, and be given a 6 month back dated suspension

---

res, non verba

Jimmaaayyyy, thanks for starting this. Surprised you can do something productive after those binge drinking sessions with Bunk :)

All jest aside (that was alluding to the Wire above), this should be a good one

Are we even certain that it would be Froome v Domoulin? There's also Nibali, and of course, Chavez. I really hope Chavez do well here

Tommy D!

impressive he went as fast as Dennis

also, made a mistake above. It's Nibali's brother, not il Squalo himself, who's at this race

dayum................i went with RO RO.......

Little guys ballin' in the short TT! Pozzovivo, Yates!

Took the balls out of him on a course that needed them.

On the other hand, almost every GT victory involves being tested with serious adversity multiple times, and handling it gracefully. (e.g. Froome himself running a bike uphill). I was a little surprised that he'd get snakebit by something that didn't look, on the surface, all that big of a deal. Buy, of course, often reality is bigger than surface perception. Good chance Froome will show up in a big way for the rest of the race. (even though as a card-carrying Froome-hater I hope he undergoes a complete meltdown).

Yeah, surprising to see both in the top 10, Yates actually faster than Tony Martin and Pozzovio tied with him. And with Froome losing lots of time things are shaping up for an interest race.

I'm pretty sure I read a quote somewhere that Sunweb has absolutely no intention of protecting the jersey now and riding at the front for 3 weeks.
They know as well as anyone that they will need to keep their troops fresh for the last week.
I bet they let a breakaway go up the road and dare the sprinters teams not to chase.

Outside of TD and Froome, my money is on Pinot to be on the podium, he finished 4th last year and has shown himself really strong this spring, Lopez could well upset the apple cart if he can climb like he did at the Vuelta last year.
Those other names you mentioned, while they are all good riders I just don't see them on the podium, top 5 yeah, Woods and or Yates top 5 if the chips fall right.

He is not making the call. I'm predicting it here - win or lose, leading or trailing, Froome is disqualified during the Giro. Black eye for the UCI? Yes. BIGGER black eye for Team Sky? YES. I think that the UCI is pissed that they are stuck in the middle here - Froome can keep racing while waiting to clear his adverse finding. No one benefits if Froome does well/ wins the GdI and then gets sacked for last year's problems. This should have been resolved before the GTs and the fact that it is not - well, lots of folks are potentially swinging in the wind. UCI can't run the risk of a Froome victory in the GdI overturned. They will find a way to disqualify Froome if he survives he first 1/3-1/2 of the race.

To be fair Froome has never really been great at short TT's, Martin also seems to struggle with short technical TT's......what is the deal with Martin he seems to have completely lost his ability to be a serious TT contender.

One potential issue is now Sunweb has a lot of responsibility early and i am sure Sky is perfectly happy to allow them to hold the pink jersey. If i was TD i would rather BMC have the jersey early and chill out for a week. Can sunweb protect TD for three weeks? TD cannot climb to the same level as an on form Froome, which begs the question is Froome on form or close to ideal form?

Who do you think is a serious contender outside of TD/Froome? Pinot, Yates, Woods, Bennett, Aru, do we know who Movistar is riding for?

Well Woods isn't going to be a true podium contender until Vaughters glues his ass to a TT saddle for a couple months. He got caught for a minute by Campaerts (sp).

I am sometimes amazed that Slipstream went from a team that has won ITT and TTT events to what they are today. Except for Phinney, everyone n the team is a pretty weak TT rider. Maybe Uran can put in an OK ride from time to time, but most of his TTs are stinkers these days

You are right, it was Ryan Mullen, he gave that interview earlier this year after he won a TT on his new (trek) bike/team.

---

----------------------------
http://www.instagram.com/cyclewise

Reading his interview he seemed to be trashing more of how old the bikes were (referencing them being 5 or 6 years old and super flexy due to their age/use) versus being a significant aero disadvantage. I also thought he made reference to the lack of adjustability and not being able to get in his ideal position. Definitely telling that he won a TT in one of his first races with Trek.

being on Cannondale bikes doesn't help :p. I think there was a former rider who trashed them for having unaero bikes (though this could just be publicity stunt for his new team)

Jest aside, wait and see. This Giro is quite hilly, who knows how it will shake out. That 2016 edition was quite something: Kruiswijk seemed to be in control, only to crash; then Chavez couldn't follow one Nibali acceleration (the only one he had trouble with), and his quest for the Maglia Rosa was over. Quite chaotic.

I used to never fully appreciate the chaos introduced by high mountains, but descending those things is no joke.

breezy in the desert this morning....maybe some echelon shenanigans?......it's usually QS who does this but no incentive today

What other cycling boards do you follow? I occasionally stop by weight weenies then remember very quickly why i left there years ago.

I am somewhat surprised that Sam Bennett was not penalized for his sharp move into the barriers today, if it was Sagan or Cav the keyboard warriors would be in full mobilization. This stage was a good teaching stage to watch how splits form in crosswinds and how to move into position. The last 5k was interesting from a technical standpoint.

paceline.net (formerly serotta forum). I used to hang out on the road racing subsection of bikeforums a lot, but the place got so snarky and inane over the years. I went from averaging a few posts/day to barely making a post every 6 months. Never spent much time on weight weenies. Particular reason you left?

As for Bennett, that was a bit ridiculous; more than 1 lane width of drifting. Perhaps him being non-Italian had something to do with actually being sanctioned, as usually such a move doesn't get penalized unless the person behind got impeded. In this case, Viviani still came around. Hopefully they'll be as strict on other stages.

Ron_Burgundy wrote:

I do enjoy the technical information and bike builds posted on weight weenies, lots of interesting builds and hacks people detail. They also tend to have some "semi" objective reviews on equipment failures and items to avoid. Their wheel building thread is very helpful. But, their road racing discussions are not constructive. Just a lot of misinformed viewpoints arguing for no point. You also have a lot of the old school campy is king crowd and Etap is the devil which can muddy the discussions.

another win for QS. I don't know how sponsors view ROI but all this winning is probably good.

paceline.net (formerly serotta forum). I used to hang out on the road racing subsection of bikeforums a lot, but the place got so snarky and inane over the years. I went from averaging a few posts/day to barely making a post every 6 months. Never spent much time on weight weenies. Particular reason you left?

As for Bennett, that was a bit ridiculous; more than 1 lane width of drifting. Perhaps him being non-Italian had something to do with actually being sanctioned, as usually such a move doesn't get penalized unless the person behind got impeded. In this case, Viviani still came around. Hopefully they'll be as strict on other stages.

][/font]

Why are we talking about going off to other cycling forums on ST....that's like being in a bar and talking beside the bartender about why the other bar across the street is so much better!!!

devashish_paul wrote:

Yes, this should be really interesting. I assume the Jerusalem TT will tell us what to preview in stage 16 in terms of the delta between these two in the stage 16 TT later in the race and what they have to do in between and after to secure the win (assuming no mishaps). I would think Froome has the advantage on Zoncolan.

Dev

Back at it tomorrow. Lumpy fast stage. Who we like?

Gruppo compacto? Or Stickabreakatto?

Woods; b/c i cant stand Ulissi (a cheating scum)

Or Woodsie, even better but they're not letting him go.

formolo is cannondale education first no more. alas.

GODDAMIT! I made this same mistake with ex-C'dale riders about 86 times in the Classics thread. I'm stuck in 2017.

The biggest obstacle seems to be the transfer back to France and all the riders potentially having to do a red eye flight in the middle of a Grand Tour.

<fantasy>

C'dale might send Formolo up the road since he's an Ardennesy-type sprinter, and not a 2nd-tier GC threat like Woods. That way Woods can kick it back in the field and maybe clean up the mess if Formolo is caught.

</fantasy>

Love this pictures, that place looks awesome.

As far as Formolo.. c'mon in the middle of the Vualta it looked like the team was going to fold, you can't exactly blame someone for trying to get a job.

OK, well feel free to speak your mind here....this thread is a safe place..:)
I like Wellens to go late after the break is controlled by BMC. Or maybe they let Wellens go? Or Woodsie, even better but they're not letting him go.

good Lordy.................what racing..................WOODSIE.....thought he was going to come around.........Dennis has guts

Wellens perhaps to go early, with 3-4 km to go rather than on the final hill

17:48:13 CEST
Tim Wellens digs deep and takes the win

17:48:41 CEST
Michael Woods crosses the line in second place

I love that type of finish, I guess its the Classics fan in me!

My online feed sucks! Tiz Cycling does not work for me on my work computer and trying a different feed but it freezes all the time.

How how is everyone watching? Which Feed? Which Browser?

A couple of observations on/from todays stage.
With Froome losing another few seconds today and tomorrows stage finish being similes to todays, I wonder if we will see
some of the big GC teams (Sunweb, Mitchelton, FDJ) driving hard to the finish tomorrow t see if they can get another 20-30 seconds off Froome.

Also agree on Woods, he has got a win in him soon, but also the difference between a well run and organized team vs a ramshackle team couldn't have been more obvious today, I would say that Wellens and Woods were equally able to win today, on the one hand you saw the whole Lotto drilling it coming into the finish and giving him the perfect lead out, on the other hand you have the EF "team" just scattered through the peloton, with no obvious plan (and if they did have a plan it sure wasn't executed very well).

Woods had Hugh Carthy with him all day, even in the final k. He even sat up looking for Woods when the lead group split. Having 2 guys at the end after that run in isn’t ramshackle.

Tomorrow things get down to business. Could be an interesting day--on paper it's a good one for TD and not as much one for pure climbers.

indeed; though just a prelude, there should be some fireworks

Simon Yates has looked *really* good too. He's had no problem being up near the front to avoid any risk of getting on the wrong side of a split in the finale. While Froome has struggled in doing that.

So much for that prediction, and climbers not winning today.

Froome doesn't look very good. They need to attack and hold it; instead they are just soft pedaling after half a minute

-----

Really good to see Chaves up there. He's been through a lot...

on a wholly unrelated note, i've been looking to buy a new road bike to replace my 5-year old Scott Foil. My TT bike is a Scott Plasma (with the rare shark tooth stem). So naturally, I'd like to stick to another foil (despite it having a messier front end than a Trek Madone).

What turns me off at the moment is that the standard issue aero road bars on it are compact/anatomical/whatever inflexible people use, whereas I want a classic round. Seems like Yates has one of those (seems to be an one-off), and i'd really like to get my hands on a copy. That'd be very swell, and i could even tell Scott that their sponsorship sold a bike.

Froome looked like he was hurting but he always looks terrible.

That's the funny thing with Froome, I've never seen him look like he was feeling good. His riding style never even makes him look fast, but somehow nobody can drop him.

Give him until week 3.....then we will know what he's really doing. I'm not a Froome fan by any means, but he's not one to count out just yet.

If he looked less ungainly, and didn't ride for Sky, I'd probably be a big fan, in spite of puffergate. I thought today would show a lot and it did. He's right there.

i've been thinking Yates for this stage for some reason

Fan of Chavez, happy for him today. But was wondering why the team didn't get Yates to cross the line first to get the bonus seconds. Having two leaders in the team always complicate things IMO. (But what do I know.)

I think that the team was the antithesis of Sky today, actually taking into account human feeling and emotions, after all that Chavez has been through the last 12 months and how much work he put in the break today, they just figured that he deserved to have the stage, it seems that Yates was on board with that plan as well.

Froome doesn't look very good. They need to attack and hold it; instead they are just soft pedaling after half a minute

I think that the team was the antithesis of Sky today, actually taking into account human feeling and emotions, after all that Chavez has been through the last 12 months and how much work he put in the break today, they just figured that he deserved to have the stage, it seems that Yates was on board with that plan as well.

I am glad I'm not the only one that dislikes the ultra compact bars the manufacturers are infatuated with at the moment.

I think that the team was the antithesis of Sky today, actually taking into account human feeling and emotions, after all that Chavez has been through the last 12 months and how much work he put in the break today, they just figured that he deserved to have the stage, it seems that Yates was on board with that plan as well.

Yes, and nice that still exists today.

Not like in 2012 when Froome won a stage and Wiggins said something along the lines of he now had his little glory and can now do his real job supportint me.

He lost nearly 1:30 to TD at Worlds last year and :27 or whatever in only 10k. It's not only unlikely he won't gain anything in 30k ITT, but likely he'll lose gobs of time.

Little surprised TD gave away that much time to Yates today. He looked in control the whole way, and is perhaps being patient for what's to come. That said, was probably worse outcome for Froome.

On a different note, what's going on with Joe Dombrowski? He was in the break at the start of Etna climb, and then he was gone. Looks like he finished 5 minutes down.

How can I watch the Giro in the US?

How can I watch the Giro in the US?

Good interviews with Chavez and Yates. Both gave credit to their teammates, smiling Chavez says, "We now go to the mainland and keep it dreaming".
I'm rooting for them.

Happy to see Sam Bennett finally win in a GT!

The QS train delivered Viviani a perfect lead out, Bennett stayed patient and rode around him in the final 10 metres - Outstanding

Happy to see Sam Bennett finally win in a GT!

The QS train delivered Viviani a perfect lead out, Bennett stayed patient and rode around him in the final 10 metres - Outstanding

Propers to our man Trail who currently leads (and may well stay there) in the Velogames thing. His team is 631 out of 21000+.

that did look like a bit of line deviation from Bennett though; not sure what to think of it (I liked the win, but also those types of moves are dangerous, and he did actually body check a rider)

Wasn't going to say anything because I've *always* come in near dead-last in velogames, and usually less than half my team makes it to the last day.

I thought it was a bit of a risk taking two GC-types from the same team. But these two seem to be genuinely happy for each other. Chaves handing out thank-you drawings to every member of his team after his win nearly brings tears to my eyes. It's funny to think of Wiggins-Froome/Landa-Quintana/Armstrong-Contador handing each other thank-you drawings.

Bennett's line was questionable the other day when he drove Viviani to the barriers on the right and then swung across to the left again but today looked okay to me. The rider he contacted was a Quickstep rider looking to obstruct him from chasing Viviani. I think it was legit.
A good win. First GT win in a while for an Irish rider.

Yep, the minimal bumping today was completely legit. Nice to see Bennett win, he was obviously very pleased to get his 1st GT stage win. He's usually impetuous but took his time to launch, even freewheeling briefly not that far from the line. Nice job!

I think since Nick Roche? Dan Martin hasn't won one, which is interesting. A little, anyway.
It's refreshing to see a wide open race and no dominant team for the GC.

Pretty sure Martin won a stage at the Vuelta (back in 2011 or 2012); also a stage at the 2013 Tour. A good while back, sure, but he's had success.

in unrelated news, Andrei Griepel just won solo after attacking his break mates on a climb. Always liked the Gorilla, and his solo/small group raids in the classics in service of his teammates were always commendable, but this is a bit different. Perhaps he could seriously challenge for a spring classic if the stars align

Love him too, but winning a stage against the guys who didn't get picked for the Giro or ToC is a far stretch from challenging for a classic.

first real major climbing stage, and only in the Giro is it rated a 3/5 in terms of difficulty.

Would be interesting to see how Dumoulin copes with the altitude (iirc, that was partially what contributed to the nature stop last year)

Think Orica and Pinot could do well

TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.

TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.

In any case, 1985 got me hooked on the Giro. Since then, that's the part of year that I really get into my cycling overdose....this year the final week of Giro coincides with the Champion's league finals. I will be completely useless on the weekend of May 26/27!!!!

My fantasy team is big winner again! 1-2-3 on finish and GC.

Good bye asthma boy

indeed

Pinot kept burning matches in the last km. I bet he'd have given Yates a run for the latter's money had he taken a few more chill pills.

I think Yates will ship ~2:00-2:30 to Dumoulin in the time trial. What would hamper Dumoulin is the cumulative fatigue from the few days before, so if they really put him under pressure, he may not recover in time to really put the hurt on the willowy climbers. Were the TT scheduled for this week or early next week, he'd have extracted more.

This is shaping up to be an intriguing battle. Orica's team advantage may very well give them the title when Dumoulin burns one too many matches following attacks.




Champion's League? what sort of effete European BS is that? ;)

Jest aside, I hope the Scousers sock one on Madrid; and if Ramos gets a literal socking, that wouldn't be half bad either. I do wonder for whom Xabi Alonso will be cheering? He's seems to be a bigger Scousers at heart, and admittedly, that final in Istanbul was nothing short of magical. Rafa most certainly would cheer for Liverpool.

So what's the odds of Froome packing in his Giro training camp middle of next week, and getting back on the regular plan, showing up at the Dauphine and then the TdF in A form?

great...wonder what your world ranking is now..i got 2-3...........really messed up not taking Yates, I'd be giving you a run for it

TD didn’t necessarily follow every attack last year and conceded little bits of time here and there. When he stays steady—which he does as well or better than any GC guys there— it could almost be in energy conservation mode.

Sort of looks like he’s holding back a bit or might not be on same form at Yates, Pinot and Chavez yet, saving for 3rd week.

TD is sitting pretty, the ITT is 34.2 long, which means Yates will lose about 2 to 2.5 minutes.
There are only 4 montain stages left after today.
F

TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.

I was actually a bit surprised that they didn't really try anything today (other then the last 500 meters).
Was todays climb to easy to really try a serious attack?

+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD

+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD

In and of itself, the climb wasn't killer but it's length after a 200k day and a long week of work and then the final pitch up made for a very tough finish. I think that since it's only a third of the way through and the GC still tight, no one was going to go for a kill shot. I think Yates and Chavez were pleasantly surprised to be able to go 1-3. I think TD has to be quite pleased. I too am looking for him to battle those two. And as much as I like the M Scott guys, I'd like to see TD hang steady and tough and maybe even swat them back a bit.

I think Kreuziger moving to the front after Astana shot their wad was big. That's a hell of a teammate to have in that situation.

EF got great rides from Carthy, Woods, and Joe D. Bodes well if the keep recovering.

It's still very early and the mountains get bigger and the weather gets crazier. The Giro is the best.

agreed, however TD is not so vulnerable to attacks on finishing climbs even 2-pronged ones. because he typically takes the steady pace approach rather than chasing after moves all the MS guys get is one of them sitting on which doesn't make much difference on a climb steep enough to favour them in the first place. in order to gain big time (ie the 2 minutes+ they need to account for the TT) they need to attack and isolate TD on a prior climb, force him to lead a chase group to the bottom of the finishing climb. that may be easier said than done. st14 only has cat 2&3 climbs leading to the zoncolan; st18 is just a finishing climb; st19 with the finestre mid-stage is a prime opportunity; maybe st20 with 3 cat 1s in a row and most domestiques fried by that point of the race.

i'm not counting froome out yet either - he hasn't looked good but if he's peaking in the 3rd week then the TT and mountains could see him right back in it - i hope so anyway, not that i want him to win but i want him in the battle

Just watched the last 4km replay again. Do you think that Pinot was actually the strongest in the lead group and just kept burning all kinds of energy for no good reason. Meanwhile Yates just sat and marked patiently and saved his one real attack for when it counted?

might not be the strongest, but certainly 2nd or 3rd strongest.

It was a headwind in the final, so takes a lot of energy to get free, but not as much to follow. After he tired himself from all those accelerations, Yates put in a decisive one to go over the top, and Pinot still had enough to follow for the most part.

-----------------------------------------

As for how one works over Dumoulin, I'm thinking of the way Nibali worked over Chaves in 2016. Or alternatively, send a teammate up the road (Kreuziger or Nieve), attack the penultimate climb (or even earlier), link up with a teammate in the valley, make Dumoulin work. He got worked over in the last stage of the 2015 Vuelta

Lot of racing left in this one, way too soon to crown a victor. It’s gonna come down to third week and who is hitting form versus gassing. That’s the big question in my mind for TD or Yates.

In other news, much to ST’s dismay, Gaviria somehow managed a W on disc bike. Lucky for him Sagan was uncharacteristicly too far back when it went down.

right you are......11 for Vuelta, 13 for TdF..guess Roche won after that...in the discussion of Irish wins, Martin never came up....i guess 5 years is ancient history

195th! So inside the top 1%.

Your definitely running away with it. My only gamble is picking up Bennett. I wish I used my extra 2 credits not used and did not pick up Pantano and picked up Formolo instead.

The scenery on yesterday stage was stunning!

Lot of racing left in this one, way too soon to crown a victor. It’s gonna come down to third week and who is hitting form versus gassing. That’s the big question in my mind for TD or Yates.

What will be interesting is if Mitchelton sends Chavez up the road on penultimate climb on stage 14, putting TD to the sword early. The finale is so brutal that it's more or less everyman for themselves regardless. Stage 15 is no picnic either.

Yeah, there is plenty of opportunity to gain or lose boatloads of time the between stages 14 and 20. And the way stages 19 and 20 are set up, it gives opportunity for guys to send teammates in the break and swing for the fences early if they are down on time. I also wouldn't count Froome out just yet. I think his chances of winning the Giro are extremely small...but I think he might stick it out to go out on the attack for training purposes and may shake things up.

If I am TD, I'm not feeling very comfortable right now. At this point, even if he puts 3 minutes on Yates and Chavez in the TT, he's got to hope that they fade and he gets stronger in the mountains as the tour goes on. At his rate, I think he bleeds more than 5 minutes to both of them in the remaining mountain stages.

A lot of people thought TD would lose many minutes to Quintana in last years Giro during week 3 in the mountains, but it didn't happen like they envisaged [nobody anticipated his nature stop tho]
He was able to hang with the climbers through most of the very difficult stages and lost a handful of seconds; I'm anticipating the same this time around, especially since Sunweb brought more climbers in the roster for week 3.

I thought the same last year. What is working against TD this year though is that the TT is before the last 2 mountain stages. So assuming TD has pink after stage 16, his competitors will know the exact time they have to gain on him to peel the jersey off his back and can plan appropriately.

Also, I look at last mountain stages of last year (18-20), compared to this year (19-20) and see big differences that does not favor TD. I ask myself, could TD make it to the base of the final climb with the GC group and manage his losses from there in each stage. Or would there be long range attacks from the GC group and it would be a free for all well before the final climb of the stage.

When I look at last year's 18-20 (hindsight is 20/20 of course), I see crazy amounts of climbing and nastiness, but a profile where the lead group is likely to still be together at the base of the last climb. There was just too much descending and flats/rolling into the final climb for a GC guy to take the risk.

This year on the other hand, I look at the Finestre, and I ask my self if TD can hang with the GC group who will want to attack from 85-95 km out knowing the rest of the stage is all uphill or downhill. Sunweb will likely keep their entire team with TD in the peloton, but all the other GC teams will send guys in the break. If even just 2 GC contenders crest the Finestre with a 20 second gap on TD (I expect it will be more), look out. Their teams will pull guys from the break back and suddenly you'll see 4-6 guys working together to distance TD who may not have any teammates left with him. Same goes for stage 20 with about 40 km to go...there is a legit launch pad prior to the final climb that is relatively low risk high reward for the GC guys to make their move early.

If TD wins this year's Giro...he will have proven he can climb with the best of them.

So assuming TD has pink after stage 16, his competitors will know the exact time they have to gain on him to peel the jersey off his back and can plan appropriately.

Thinking the same, TD could be in a defensive position. All things considered, didn't give up that much riding the Stelvio solo last year, and when Wiggo won ToC, he basically rode all of Mt. Diablo at a tempo that barely anyone could attack from far out. If TD did that it'd force the climbers to burn matches trying to get up the road.

M-S has looked solid but it'll be week 3 when it really counts, and the Sunweb supporting cast is on cruise control right now.

...deterministic number blah blah blah

Yeah, agree. TD has shown that while he can't necessary punch like the climbers he can go into TT mode and not give up a lot.

Egan Bernal... that kid is good.

No fan of Sky but that’s the smart play. Bit of a turn of affairs today.

Mohoric is such an insane descender. The weight of his massive balls must help him downhill.

No fan of Sky but that’s the smart play. Bit of a turn of affairs today.

Doesn't really help Sky's GC chances, though. Yates picked up 3 seconds because the break was caught. And now that Chaves is 15 minutes down, he'll get some leash to get in breaks. (assuming Chaves can recover from the effects of his TvG-style rest day). Very weird to struggle so early in the day.

In fairness to Sky, and I don't really want to be, other teams helped. I was really looking to see that break group interact.

Chaves is free now to start shit and this changes how he rides with Yates. No questioning roles. Chaves can cut loose and/or shepherd Yates when Kreuziger drops off. I don't see how this is bad for M Scott. Hope he bounces back.

Meanwhile other guys move up. How about Maxie Schachmann only 3:40 down? Joe D. 30 mins down, 47th with the bigger climbs to come. Movin' on up.......

WTF....I go off the internet for 4 hrs (well the sport channel on the internet, I guess i was on work channels) and Chavez plummets to the floor. I guess this gives Scott a hand to play now sending Chavez up the road stage hunting with an option to drop back and pick up Yates if need be.