Yeah, not going to attach a name (but not Yates), but a buddy of mine remarked on the behavior of the winner of a recent brutally hard WorldTour race. Usually when guys cross the line after having spent 5-6 hours at near-full gas, and the last 30 minutes at full-full gas, they appear to be exhausted. They go sit down for a while, or gingerly cool down. This guy was just utterly non-chalant after having shelled some huge names, like he'd ridden to pick up a six pack. Chatty, bouncy, etc. My buddy wasn't commenting out of suspicion, just admiration, but your words make me think about it.

My only similar experience was just with plain old ibuprofen in a running ultra. It was like 20 hours in, and I was in the depths of the abyss, angry, sullen, wanting to quit, and would have if there'd been a way out (I was in the boonies). I found 4 Advil in the bottom of my salt pill container, and downed them. My world completely changed. I became cheerful and giddy, and started flying.

Drugs - legal or otherwise - can really help.

it looks like being an interesting last week :)
i see dumoulin more or less even with yates after the TT. if yates can keep climbing like he has been then i see him gaining back any minor time he may fall behind - he seems to be able to gain time at will in the mountains!
pinot will probably skip ahead of pozzivivo into 2nd but not by too much so that will be a good ongoing battle
if the froome we've seen in previous seasons shows up he should get close to that battle for the podium too.
lopez and carapaz sit 5th and 6th but seem more intent on battling for the young riders jersey which may or may not align with overall gc position
bennett in 8th still seems to be to enthusiastic and attacking early, he'll likely see dennis skip up into 8th in the TT anyway

Question: assuming everyone is equally fatigued, who loses more from their fresh TT performance - the usually strong TTer or the climber? i'm inclined to think the TTer can do a good TT regardless of their legs whereas a climber is inclined to fall apart when tired. but then being in the pink jersey will give yates all the motivation you could want

Also let's not forget that TT day is the day after the rest day. Anything can happen. Pretty sure Froome and Dumoulin will be on though. I can't remember the last TT when Froome sucked other than Jerusalem after a crash. Same deal with Dumoulin. He is always on for a TT.

I don't understand why tramadol hasn't been banned or at least regulated under a TUE (where at least it's abuse would be documented...), given that everybody has been talking about it for a couple of years, and also that there would seem to be a clear health risk - over-riding the body's sense of pain to allow riders to dig deeper surely risks them damaging themselves, as will the increased likelihood of crashes due to the detachment and confusion that tramadol apparently brings.

Yates still gets benefit of the doubt for me. He's certainly riding at a higher level than previous years, but he's young enough (25) to make big natural gains from one year to the next, and has a solid pedigree and progression including junior and senior world track titles, multiple top 10 finishes in big stage races over the last 3 years, and a couple of top 10 GT finishes including TdF white jersey. Not like he's come from nowhere, he's the sort of rider you'd expect to have a breakthrough at some point as age, tactical awareness and team support all come together. Also worth noting that despite being a small guy he was a decent pursuit rider as a junior so should be capable of turning in a better TT than you might expect from a specialist climber.

I also think he's been somewhat flattered by the competition this year. Dumoulin hasn't had a great season to date and I think was always going to be slightly vulnerable to aggressive attacks on the steeper stuff - he surprised us with his tenacity last year but he's not quite in the same form and I also don't think either Nibali or Quintana were at their best last year either. Froome has clearly either been more affected by the doping case than he's letting on (would be surprising if he hadn't been to be honest), is really focusing on the TdF and/or just timed his peak wrong. No Nibali or Quintana, Pozzovivo would be delighted just to round off his career with a GT podium finish, Aru and Pinot have been disappointing.

I wouldn't lump Pinot with Aru. I think Pinot's doing well so far. In the past he's always had a really bad day that just destroyed his GC chances. So far in the Giro he hasn't had that really bad day.

He's raced aggressively when he can, maybe a little too aggressively at times. He's just not nearly as good as Yates or TD. But I wouldn't call that disappointing. Sometimes in bike racing you're not the best guy, and he's doing really well just to stay in the game. When you're in the game sometimes good things happen.

I will give you all the points on Yate's progression and him having a solid past track record of success in previous grand tours (but that past record includes a suspension too) and the competition perhaps not being as strong as past years. I think the Zoncolan VAM data will be a great way to know how legit or shady these performances are. It is good to see Froome vulnerable after emptying the tank. This is what we used to always count on in the pre epo era where all the favourites would have off days. I will concede that all the non pharma sports physiology knowledge about how to recover quickly for the next day helps us more today than in 1985, and perhaps it is possible for a clean rider to have no off days, and I kind of buy when they don't have off days if they are constantly holding back, but when they are attacking every day, all the time and not blowing up (like Landa in the TdF or Yates now) then you wonder. Even Contador at last year's Vuelta attacking like a madman, also had bad days (early in the race, so maybe he was rejuiced to the gills in in swansong grand tour). Froome in his last bunch of Grand Tours has raced just hard enough to stay in contention daily, but not so hard that he self buries for the next day. Yesterday is the first time in the long time that we saw him launch a long range attack and pay. Yates pretty well matched Froome and did not pay, but as a few have said, the cumulative load on a lighter rider is less and they may recover faster (maybe the organs of a small rider relative to body size are larger resulting in faster recovery....don't know, but I would be curious as to why smaller athletes tend to recover faster....I can see impact sports like running why they do, but cycling is a head sratcher unless if has to do with organ size/efficiency....maybe why we see some small people living long lives too).

Fair point. I guess with those 2 I partly meant their whole progression over the last few years has been a bit disappointing, they've not really fulfilled the early GT promise they showed. Pinot's best GT result came 4 years when he was 24. I guess at this point in his career I'd expected more from him than staying in the game and hoping for a podium which is where he seems to be. Aru obviously has a GT win under his belt, but after a couple of years of focusing on the TdF I'd hoped to see him really challenge here on home turf and steeper hills which should suit him.

Agreed re the Zoncolan data, though I do think sometimes people analysing VAM data don't take the full context into account. E.g. temperature and wind can still play a role even on the steep stuff, and race context even more so - how far into the race it was, how early the attacks started, whether the riders went up at a steady TT-type effort or were constantly surging and recovering, etc. Can't remember exactly which mountain it was in the Tour, but a couple of years ago people were getting over-excited about Froome going up it quicker than Lance did, while not really taking into account that Froome's time was set as the finale to a stage while Lance's time was set in the middle of a stage with another couple of climbs still to come.

Has Yates really been attacking every day, all the time? Agree he went early yesterday and looked to be all out by the end. But on other days it's seemed more to me like he's hung with the group and then just put in 1 or 2 decisive attacks to get away and make time in the last few km. I haven't had the benefit of watching all the racing live, I've just been catching text updates, stage finishes and highlights when I can, so could be I've missed some attacks. But what's seemed most remarkable to me isn't that he's burying himself every day and recovering but instead is the decisiveness and efficiency of his attacks. Seems to combine the tactical acumen to know exactly when to go, with the acceleration required to break away at will and make it stick. If he was repeatedly attacking from a long way out, being reeled back in, and then going again, then I'd agree it would be more suspicious.

Do also think the psychological benefit of the pink jersey on a 25 year old leading his first Grand Tour shouldn't be underestimated - given we've just been talking about Tramadol which doesn't provide any physiological benefit (like burning fat, increasing oxygen carrying capacity, etc) but simply allows you to ignore pain and dig deeper. Yates seems like he's absolutely loving every minute of this experience, he's got that confidence/cockiness of a young gun having his breakthrough race, and that's got to help him eke out an extra percent or 2 when others are suffering.

I would say most of your counterpoints are accurate. It is true that he saves his attacks for the right time and does not do like others (ex: Pinot or Woods attacking too early). I do hope that after the ITT it all evens out mainly because I want to see the GC guys fight for the summit finishes on Fri and Sat and thus the time bonuses and not allow any breakaways to get too far up the road. If Dumoulin is too far behind after the TT, then the game will kind of be over unless Froome can pull off a miracle for the last few mountain stages after a solid TT.

Regardless of VAM data and what may appear like extra ordinary riding, the Giro to date has been really interesting. If Dumoulin can take the lead back on Tuesday, its going to be really explosive in the final days. I like it when the ITT is done earlier and you have a few mountain stages to go

I agree with everything you are saying here. Pinot has ridden a terrific race. H

Those are some interesting musings.

Isn't the size/lifespan issue connected to calories - the more calories processed the greater the toll on the body. (n.b I'm using processed on purpose, rather than consumed i.e. this isn't about being gluttonous or a fatty)

In which case, in a time microcosm, then the smaller rider consuming fewer calories over the race day may well lead to less damage (I don't know the process) and therefore faster recovery.

Lurking more than posting on the GT threads....so let's hear it guys.

Will it be virtual tie on GC tomorrow? Or will Yates hold on for ~30ish seconds still?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think Dumoulin pulls back enough time to take Pink. Maybe by 10-20 seconds. But it's not going to be enough unless Yates comes back to earth...or TD somehow joins him in the realm of the unbelievable. Yates is not just putting time on Dumoulin when the road goes up...he's putting time on EVERYBODY. Nobody can ride with him when he hits the gas. Well...maybe Froome for one stage...but we saw what happened to him the next day...while Yates was still fresh enough to attack solo from 16 km out.

I'm not sure if I want Yates to come back to Earth so the last few stages have drama...or for him to continue to dust everyone. I suppose for entertainment purposes, I can't go wrong either way. Worst case is Yates hangs onto pink after the TT, then rides conservatively the rest of the week only focusing on not losing time to TD rather than going on the offensive.

submit your predictions. how much time would Yates lose? i originally called 2:45 and I think i'll go with 2:30

bonus points only in effect if 5 or more participate

2:45.............he could barely do the interview after Sunday and they're looking to get even

1:45. It doesn't make any sense. But it's what I'm seeing on the road.

I'm going with Yates up 0:23 after tomorrow's stage, so going with 1:48 advantage tomorrow (for TD).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yates coughs up :70.

I’m just glad the rest day is over.

OK, you picked my number so I will go with Yates losing only 1:50 and still being way up! I really want TD to draw even or a bit ahead so the last few stages are fireworks.

Dev

you can pick the same number :)

Makes a bit of sense - a TT in week 3 of a GC when you've got 2 and a bit weeks of hard mountain riding in your legs is a very different beast to a fresh TT. The gaps between the TT specialists and the climbers are always smaller than they would be in week 1 (unless the TT specialists aren't in GC contention and have a team that allows them to take it easy in the mountains). Plus Yates was a very good team pursuit rider in his junior days (World junior silver medallist and GB national champion) so should be able to TT better than many of the smaller guys

Yates will lose 90 seconds and remain in pink.

I think 1:45 is more than reasonable. I’m revising down again, to 2:05

TD will respond and win by ...2:42 :-)

Watching the ITT stage live right now. Trying to figure out the arm pad positions on most of the riders. Overall the arm pads seem way higher than what I am seeing in competitive Ironman athletes. Despite this the backs of al the riders are flat. Someone enlighten me as to what is going on here. I am thinking it has something to do with the UCI frame compliance (of which I know nothing), but can't figure it out.