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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.

My fantasy team is big winner again! 1-2-3 on finish and GC.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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And Pinot too. Loosing :12 on Yates but getting almost another minute on Froome is a win for TD.

Starting to look like TD, Yates, Chavez and Pinot battling for podium. Not sure I believe Pozzovivo can be there all the way until end.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.

indeed

Pinot kept burning matches in the last km. I bet he'd have given Yates a run for the latter's money had he taken a few more chill pills.

I think Yates will ship ~2:00-2:30 to Dumoulin in the time trial. What would hamper Dumoulin is the cumulative fatigue from the few days before, so if they really put him under pressure, he may not recover in time to really put the hurt on the willowy climbers. Were the TT scheduled for this week or early next week, he'd have extracted more.

This is shaping up to be an intriguing battle. Orica's team advantage may very well give them the title when Dumoulin burns one too many matches following attacks.


devashish_paul wrote:

In any case, 1985 got me hooked on the Giro. Since then, that's the part of year that I really get into my cycling overdose....this year the final week of Giro coincides with the Champion's league finals. I will be completely useless on the weekend of May 26/27!!!!


Champion's League? what sort of effete European BS is that? ;)

Jest aside, I hope the Scousers sock one on Madrid; and if Ramos gets a literal socking, that wouldn't be half bad either. I do wonder for whom Xabi Alonso will be cheering? He's seems to be a bigger Scousers at heart, and admittedly, that final in Istanbul was nothing short of magical. Rafa most certainly would cheer for Liverpool.
Last edited by: echappist: May 13, 18 8:34
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
McNulty wrote:
TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.


My fantasy team is big winner again! 1-2-3 on finish and GC.

great...wonder what your world ranking is now..i got 2-3...........really messed up not taking Yates, I'd be giving you a run for it
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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TD didn’t necessarily follow every attack last year and conceded little bits of time here and there. When he stays steady—which he does as well or better than any GC guys there— it could almost be in energy conservation mode.

Sort of looks like he’s holding back a bit or might not be on same form at Yates, Pinot and Chavez yet, saving for 3rd week.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [trener1] [ In reply to ]
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trener1 wrote:
Good bye asthma boy
He's saving himself for the fourth week.

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
McNulty wrote:
TD is a big winner here. Yates is spooky fresh.

indeed

Pinot kept burning matches in the last km. I bet he'd have given Yates a run for the latter's money had he taken a few more chill pills.

I think Yates will ship ~2:00-2:30 to Dumoulin in the time trial. What would hamper Dumoulin is the cumulative fatigue from the few days before, so if they really put him under pressure, he may not recover in time to really put the hurt on the willowy climbers. Were the TT scheduled for this week or early next week, he'd have extracted more.

This is shaping up to be an intriguing battle. Orica's team advantage may very well give them the title when Dumoulin burns one too many matches following attacks.


devashish_paul wrote:

In any case, 1985 got me hooked on the Giro. Since then, that's the part of year that I really get into my cycling overdose....this year the final week of Giro coincides with the Champion's league finals. I will be completely useless on the weekend of May 26/27!!!!


Champion's League? what sort of effete European BS is that? ;)

Jest aside, I hope the Scousers sock one on Madrid; and if Ramos gets a literal socking, that wouldn't be half bad either. I do wonder for whom Xabi Alonso will be cheering? He's seems to be a bigger Scousers at heart, and admittedly, that final in Istanbul was nothing short of magical. Rafa most certainly would cheer for Liverpool.

Keep in mind tha TD lost time on the double Stelvio stage last year, but otherwise survived the week three mountains OK and then buried Quintana on the TT. Yates should be a bit stronger than Quintana on the TT, but not by a ton, so week three is the battle for sure.

So what's the odds of Froome packing in his Giro training camp middle of next week, and getting back on the regular plan, showing up at the Dauphine and then the TdF in A form?
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Greater than 50:50. Sky pulled the same thing with Wiggo in 2013
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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Most of this week is flat to rolling. On Wed there is a short 16% grade before the finish. Then on Saturday is Zoncolan. I think Froome sticks around till Zoncolan and tests things out. There is no reason to gain or lose any time between today and Zoncolan unless he is really badly banged up.



If he gains back time on Zoncolan, I think he hangs out for week three. If he blows apart on Zoncolan, I don't think he hangs out for the next day's stage which is also pretty sawtooth-ish:


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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
So what's the odds of Froome packing in his Giro training camp middle of next week, and getting back on the regular plan, showing up at the Dauphine and then the TdF in A form?
I'd be a little surprised if he starts Tuesday's stage. Not much in it over the next few stages for a rider like him. And if he's going to lose even more time when they get to the mountains next week...........

Maybe the pre-race crash before the prologue affected him, but he hasn't seemed to be very fired up about the Giro.

Is it too late to get rid of the white jerseys and go back to the black (evil empire) jerseys?

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
great...wonder what your world ranking is now..i got 2-3...........really messed up not taking Yates, I'd be giving you a run for it

195th! So inside the top 1%.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
TD didn’t necessarily follow every attack last year and conceded little bits of time here and there. When he stays steady—which he does as well or better than any GC guys there— it could almost be in energy conservation mode.

Sort of looks like he’s holding back a bit or might not be on same form at Yates, Pinot and Chavez yet, saving for 3rd week.

TD is sitting pretty, the ITT is 34.2 long, which means Yates will lose about 2 to 2.5 minutes.
There are only 4 montain stages left after today.
Froomebutol is looking uncharacteristically out of form.
This is turning out to be a dream sceanario for Michelton-Scott, Yates & Chaves lead the GC and M-S leads the team Category

res, non verba
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [RoYe] [ In reply to ]
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RoYe wrote:


TD is sitting pretty, the ITT is 34.2 long, which means Yates will lose about 2 to 2.5 minutes.
There are only 4 montain stages left after today.
F



I don't know. I wouldn't feel like I was sitting pretty if I were TD. TD only put 20 seconds into Yates in the opening ~10km TT. Yates beat Tony Martin, and was only 4 seconds down on Dowsett. That's serious TT street cred. He looks like he's upped his game, and has zero intention of being the next Andy Schleck

20 seconds extrapolates out to a little over 1 minute for ~34K. Plus factor in the conventional wisdom that little guys accumulate less wear-and-tear.

TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.
Last edited by: trail: May 13, 18 12:10
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:

TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.

+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD

I was actually a bit surprised that they didn't really try anything today (other then the last 500 meters).
Was todays climb to easy to really try a serious attack?
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.


+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD

Just watched the last 4km replay again. Do you think that Pinot was actually the strongest in the lead group and just kept burning all kinds of energy for no good reason. Meanwhile Yates just sat and marked patiently and saved his one real attack for when it counted?
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.


+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD

agreed, however TD is not so vulnerable to attacks on finishing climbs even 2-pronged ones. because he typically takes the steady pace approach rather than chasing after moves all the MS guys get is one of them sitting on which doesn't make much difference on a climb steep enough to favour them in the first place. in order to gain big time (ie the 2 minutes+ they need to account for the TT) they need to attack and isolate TD on a prior climb, force him to lead a chase group to the bottom of the finishing climb. that may be easier said than done. st14 only has cat 2&3 climbs leading to the zoncolan; st18 is just a finishing climb; st19 with the finestre mid-stage is a prime opportunity; maybe st20 with 3 cat 1s in a row and most domestiques fried by that point of the race.

i'm not counting froome out yet either - he hasn't looked good but if he's peaking in the 3rd week then the TT and mountains could see him right back in it - i hope so anyway, not that i want him to win but i want him in the battle
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [trener1] [ In reply to ]
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trener1 wrote:
echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD


I was actually a bit surprised that they didn't really try anything today (other then the last 500 meters).
Was todays climb to easy to really try a serious attack?

In and of itself, the climb wasn't killer but it's length after a 200k day and a long week of work and then the final pitch up made for a very tough finish. I think that since it's only a third of the way through and the GC still tight, no one was going to go for a kill shot. I think Yates and Chavez were pleasantly surprised to be able to go 1-3. I think TD has to be quite pleased. I too am looking for him to battle those two. And as much as I like the M Scott guys, I'd like to see TD hang steady and tough and maybe even swat them back a bit.

I think Kreuziger moving to the front after Astana shot their wad was big. That's a hell of a teammate to have in that situation.

EF got great rides from Carthy, Woods, and Joe D. Bodes well if the keep recovering.

It's still very early and the mountains get bigger and the weather gets crazier. The Giro is the best.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [pk1] [ In reply to ]
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pk1 wrote:
echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.


+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD


agreed, however TD is not so vulnerable to attacks on finishing climbs even 2-pronged ones. because he typically takes the steady pace approach rather than chasing after moves all the MS guys get is one of them sitting on which doesn't make much difference on a climb steep enough to favour them in the first place. in order to gain big time (ie the 2 minutes+ they need to account for the TT) they need to attack and isolate TD on a prior climb, force him to lead a chase group to the bottom of the finishing climb. that may be easier said than done. st14 only has cat 2&3 climbs leading to the zoncolan; st18 is just a finishing climb; st19 with the finestre mid-stage is a prime opportunity; maybe st20 with 3 cat 1s in a row and most domestiques fried by that point of the race.

i'm not counting froome out yet either - he hasn't looked good but if he's peaking in the 3rd week then the TT and mountains could see him right back in it - i hope so anyway, not that i want him to win but i want him in the battle

Watch Froome on the replay it almost looks like he was bonking or his form has a way to go. He did not look like he was phyically favoring anything from the crashes, but he looks so ungainly on the bike anyway that perhaps it is hard to say.

I think the only way these guys really beat TD is if he has an off day and Yates has a perfect TT. Froome has bled away enough time, that I can't see how he can close on TD, but who knows? If Froome is truly riding his way into fitness and giving away some time now, he may be fresher in week three when others who were peaking earlier are on fumes.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.


+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD


Just watched the last 4km replay again. Do you think that Pinot was actually the strongest in the lead group and just kept burning all kinds of energy for no good reason. Meanwhile Yates just sat and marked patiently and saved his one real attack for when it counted?

might not be the strongest, but certainly 2nd or 3rd strongest.

It was a headwind in the final, so takes a lot of energy to get free, but not as much to follow. After he tired himself from all those accelerations, Yates put in a decisive one to go over the top, and Pinot still had enough to follow for the most part.

-----------------------------------------

As for how one works over Dumoulin, I'm thinking of the way Nibali worked over Chaves in 2016. Or alternatively, send a teammate up the road (Kreuziger or Nieve), attack the penultimate climb (or even earlier), link up with a teammate in the valley, make Dumoulin work. He got worked over in the last stage of the 2015 Vuelta
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
echappist wrote:
trail wrote:


TD is not in the danger zone yet, but those times bonuses, at some point, start to add up to real time.

Plus, as noted, Yates and Chaves look scary. You get the feeling they haven't thrown their haymaker yet. At some point you have to think they're going to go all-in to isolate TD with Yates and Chaves and just start tag-teaming him. And I have to think there'll be no agenda between those two. If Chaves gets up the road, Yates will absolutely sit on TD and let Chaves win GC if that's what it takes.


+1 on both points. Those pesky time bonuses might end up what does Dumoulin in. Time bonuses really don't favor the diesel types.

And I would love to see Chaves and Yates work over TD


Just watched the last 4km replay again. Do you think that Pinot was actually the strongest in the lead group and just kept burning all kinds of energy for no good reason. Meanwhile Yates just sat and marked patiently and saved his one real attack for when it counted?


might not be the strongest, but certainly 2nd or 3rd strongest.

It was a headwind in the final, so takes a lot of energy to get free, but not as much to follow. After he tired himself from all those accelerations, Yates put in a decisive one to go over the top, and Pinot still had enough to follow for the most part.

-----------------------------------------

As for how one works over Dumoulin, I'm thinking of the way Nibali worked over Chaves in 2016. Or alternatively, send a teammate up the road (Kreuziger or Nieve), attack the penultimate climb (or even earlier), link up with a teammate in the valley, make Dumoulin work. He got worked over in the last stage of the 2015 Vuelta

There is an additional scenario that starts playing out with Froome 2 min down. Suddenly Froome can become an ally of Yates because Yates MAY have enough time to hold off Froome in the ITT, but not enough to hold of TD. This could be kind of interesting on Zoncolan if Froome starts bouncing back from his crashes by then.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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Lot of racing left in this one, way too soon to crown a victor. It’s gonna come down to third week and who is hitting form versus gassing. That’s the big question in my mind for TD or Yates.

In other news, much to ST’s dismay, Gaviria somehow managed a W on disc bike. Lucky for him Sagan was uncharacteristicly too far back when it went down.
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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I see TD as a very similar rider to Froomebuterol and JiffyBrad who had a very specific team tactic working for them.. turning the last x km of each stage into a threshold ride and basically forcing all of their GC competitors to ride the approaches in the red. Which works in your favour if you have a TTer with a very high threshold, who can also climb pretty well. Used to see quite a few attempted late breaks failing under seemingly tired legs, which bored everybody to death but was an effective strategy for this type of rider.

I don't see Sunweb doing this for TD in the same way that the Sky train has for their leaders in the last few TDFs?
Last edited by: knighty76: May 14, 18 2:38
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Re: 2018 Giro D’Italia- SPOILER ALERT [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
Lot of racing left in this one, way too soon to crown a victor. It’s gonna come down to third week and who is hitting form versus gassing. That’s the big question in my mind for TD or Yates.

In other news, much to ST’s dismay, Gaviria somehow managed a W on disc bike. Lucky for him Sagan was uncharacteristicly too far back when it went down.

I watch these guys and I think, he who recovers best, wins. Pinot is great but looks like a Euro mess at the end; unshaven, bent over the bars. Yates looks like he just finished a high school soccer match. That was a 200k day of racing with mountain winds.

TD, we will see. He doesn't have a train on the inclines, he's Saganing it and just has to follow the right wheel, or group of wheels. I saw him sit right on Froome yesterday and he may do this again. Not a bad way to go, given the Sky team strength. He seems super steady and that is going to count for a lot on the long climbs coming up and if Weezy is out of it, they may ride some for TD just because. Or for Yates as he's a Brit. Or maybe it's time to set up their other climbers.

Discs- I'd rather ride a crit with a lot of disc brakes than not. The braking is so much cleaner and smoother, which in tight spots is so much safer. In a crash the last thing I care about is a disc hitting me. The ground hits much harder. I don't get the concerns.
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