RoYe wrote:
Jason N wrote:
Carl Spackler wrote:
Lot of racing left in this one, way too soon to crown a victor. It’s gonna come down to third week and who is hitting form versus gassing. That’s the big question in my mind for TD or Yates.
Yeah, there is plenty of opportunity to gain or lose boatloads of time the between stages 14 and 20. And the way stages 19 and 20 are set up, it gives opportunity for guys to send teammates in the break and swing for the fences early if they are down on time. I also wouldn't count Froome out just yet. I think his chances of winning the Giro are extremely small...but I think he might stick it out to go out on the attack for training purposes and may shake things up.
If I am TD, I'm not feeling very comfortable right now. At this point, even if he puts 3 minutes on Yates and Chavez in the TT, he's got to hope that they fade and he gets stronger in the mountains as the tour goes on. At his rate, I think he bleeds more than 5 minutes to both of them in the remaining mountain stages.
A lot of people thought TD would lose many minutes to Quintana in last years Giro during week 3 in the mountains, but it didn't happen like they envisaged [nobody anticipated his nature stop tho]
He was able to hang with the climbers through most of the very difficult stages and lost a handful of seconds; I'm anticipating the same this time around, especially since Sunweb brought more climbers in the roster for week 3.
I thought the same last year. What is working against TD this year though is that the TT is before the last 2 mountain stages. So assuming TD has pink after stage 16, his competitors will know the exact time they have to gain on him to peel the jersey off his back and can plan appropriately.
Also, I look at last mountain stages of last year (18-20), compared to this year (19-20) and see big differences that does not favor TD. I ask myself, could TD make it to the base of the final climb with the GC group and manage his losses from there in each stage. Or would there be long range attacks from the GC group and it would be a free for all well before the final climb of the stage.
When I look at last year's 18-20 (hindsight is 20/20 of course), I see crazy amounts of climbing and nastiness, but a profile where the lead group is likely to still be together at the base of the last climb. There was just too much descending and flats/rolling into the final climb for a GC guy to take the risk.
This year on the other hand, I look at the Finestre, and I ask my self if TD can hang with the GC group who will want to attack from 85-95 km out knowing the rest of the stage is all uphill or downhill. Sunweb will likely keep their entire team with TD in the peloton, but all the other GC teams will send guys in the break. If even just 2 GC contenders crest the Finestre with a 20 second gap on TD (I expect it will be more), look out. Their teams will pull guys from the break back and suddenly you'll see 4-6 guys working together to distance TD who may not have any teammates left with him. Same goes for stage 20 with about 40 km to go...there is a legit launch pad prior to the final climb that is relatively low risk high reward for the GC guys to make their move early.
If TD wins this year's Giro...he will have proven he can climb with the best of them.
