I'll second the DNF prediction. Its nothing against Lionel, his toughness, or whatever. I just imagine the calculus in his head, when he's halfway through the run and 12 minutes behind, will tip in favor of making sure he's ready to go for the KQ attempt

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Does he lose money if he drops out at 15 miles into the run?

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I would doubt it. Nice appearance fee is probably what it is

So, that’d be my strategy…

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I just don't think that Lionel's psyche would allow him to stop short of the finish line. True, in the scenario you lay out, most professional athletes would pull out of the event; however, this is not just a payday for Lionel. Nor is he like most professional athletes.

Zwift had a great year, it's possible that zwift appearance fee here is more than Kona prize money

Yeah fair enough. Wouldn't be shocked to see him carry on in that scenario either

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Thanks for the link, I clicked "send a reminder" to get a notification when it starts

Sanders hasn't been in an ideal training environment as of late. Spending too long in too hot of a place can be a death sentence. Maybe it works out for him. I love Tucson but you have to get out of there in summer or at least not be training outside in the bulk of the day IMHO.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he do a majority of his bike/run training indoors?

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.
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Lionel looks like someone from Economy who has been invited to the First Class Lounge for the first time and doesn't know how it all works.
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I agree, sub 7:30 is on tap and will be darn impressive.

S: 46
B: 4:01
R: 2:40
T1&2: 1 and change

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This is a good analogy actually. Did you see him ask Jan about the air pressure? Jan was like: "Uh no. I don't check that sh*t every day. We are racing head-to-head, you know, so we will both have to deal with the same air pressure."

"On July 18, they will race head-to-head in a fun and fast duel on the roads of southern Germany to settle the score on who is the fastest"

So getting schooled by the same guy (and a few others) for years does not count as settling the score.

Makes me wonder whether they (his own fan base) are going to break the guy mentally one day with this kind of pressure and unrealistic expectations. Picture Frodeno goes 7:30 and Sanders falls apart again.

Gee you guys can be sad...and dare I say pathetic in the petty mocking.

The context as always is key, it was actually Frodo who raised the topic of air pressure when discussing how quick the bike might be.

Sanders then went on to explain how when he was going for his hour record he was monitoring it as it can make a difference of 20 Watts. Frodo then gave the back hander of 'not checking that shit' which I thought was pretty rude and arrogant.

Absolutely, in a real race. I think he feels sorry for Lionel though. According to Talbot they want to promote the sport. I don't think Jan destroying Lionel on this "team event" makes sense. We will see though. I guess to your point he could be using Lionel to motivate him to a 140.6 record. Maybe Lionel knows that's the plan and is honored to be part of it.

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No ST poll on this event?

If you listen to Lionel talk finishing every race he starts is paramount. It seems in his mind it is more important to finish what he starts on a given day even when things unravel than to pack it in and save it for another race. He just has a totally different mindset from most pro level athletes.

I personally like it as it's more I'm line with the approach of the rank and file age group athlete who does not have another race to save it for. We get that race on that day and get it done fast or slow but we get it done because on Monday we go to our day job and make money and don't have an option of going to another race. Lionel has the option of another race and he can't get money going to the office on Monday but he still plows thru like the rest of us. This is why so many amateurs join his fan club . He is a faster version of us.

I wasn't a fan of LS at the start when he arrived. I've grown to respect his approach and like the down to earth blue collar bust yer rear approach, no excuses. Agree with Dev, he is a faster version of us.

This is nothing more than a *ick swing contest and media draw, hopefully bringing $$ to their or sponsor pockets. LS has 'Jan envy" so that will give him an M.O. to chase--but mentally gives some power away due to that envy. He's also beaten himself up recently with lots of racing and when is the last time you saw Jan lose? It's been a while. How many have beaten LS in that time period? Quite a few. This will pan out 1 of 2 ways. Either Jan makes a show of it to make it closer for television...or he just get a lead from the get go & it gets larger & larger of a lead--mentally cracking LS until he is crawling but won't drop. The off chance there is a flat or mechanical is always there though. Win goes to Jan.

Crossposting, sorry:
It looks like it’s going to be chilly, wet and slow.
Wonder how that ramp deals with rain?
They better have their data uplinks flood-proofed.
Tucson-Lionel might feel the inner cold before he even gets to the run….

Can't get over how cool Jan is in that latest Lionel video. And he's even managed to fool everyone into thinking this is about a one-on-one battle when he's actually getting paid big $ to smash the world record. What an f'ing rockstar.

I don't follow enough of his training but I watched the video today and he did a simulation out on the bike that was outside. He looked like death imho. The thing about Tucson is the bottles quickly become very warm so you are drinking very warm fluids. This is even with a frozen cooler bottles. They just don't last. After May 1st your training becomes very restricted in Tucson but hopefully he was smart enough to do much training indoors. I don't care if it is 110 in Coeur D'Alene. The radiant energy of 110 in Tucson in the summer is next level.

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Do you care?
Not even a little?

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Not a chance. He would literally crawl before flying halfway around the globe to challenge Jan then stopping to help KQ chances. I’m not saying that is smart, but he just won’t do it.

I could, however, see Jan racing in a way (just slightly slower swim pace and not biking quite as hard as he could) to allow Lionel to save a little face and force Jan to have to work a little on the run.