deadline is start of the race, though no one on the East Coast is nearly psychotic enough to check at 4am EST ;)

i'm waiting until i get a better read on the weather. 6-day weather forecast is a complete crapshoot, but right now it says sunny, fwiw.

MSR has definitely gotten more interesting with Sagan winning yesterday and FC today. Tough race to predict with new (old) finish.

Have the tally from Strade (https://docs.google.com/...3RW2XLLB4/edit#gid=0)

10 participants so far.

Under old tally, Landyachtz (5), Carl Spackler (4), Kollac (4), Recall (3), Aidanlynch (2), yours truly (2), McNulty (2), LuisDF (1), Swimmer 04 (0)

Under new system, Landyachtz (6), Carl Spackler (5), Recall (5), Kollac (4), yours truly (4), McNulty (3), Aidanlynch (2), LuisDF (2), Swimmer04 (0)

The newer system provides bonuses if a) someone you pick on the podium lands on the podium (1pt) and b) you picked the winner (additional 1 pt).

Old system rewarded for winner, but if your 2nd place finished 1st and 1st place finished 2nd, you get no additional bonuses whereas under the new system you get two bonus points (1 for each pikc). I think the newer system is a bit more fair.

Agree. Mr. Fairweather Chancellara has been strong and Sagan's form is (finally) picking up too. Apparently Cav is targeting MSR as well but I'm not so sure what to make of it. He's done well in the past obviously but hasn't been doing all that well with climbing.

Very little of what I say/write is based on facts so take that with lots of salt:)

Rain forecast on Sunday. I'm a little torn between a field sprint due to new (old) finish or selection going clear. Field sprint I'd go Cav, Kristoff, Matthews. Selection I'd pick FC, Sagan, Matthews.

I'm betting on the shorter run-in and a gambler for La Primavera....

Cadillac: Greg VanA
Steak Knives: Degenkolb
Fired: Sagan

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"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

you can predict multiple scenarios, but you have to stick to just one for your picks. How do you think the five named would fare?

You get two more wildcard picks

Hmmm....for wildcards, I'll go with Cav and Kristoff since it will be a bunch gallop behind Greg.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

I'm going to try something different this time. Instead of unwavering faith in our Slovak Hulk and possible negative jinxing effects, I'll pick him for the steak knives:

Cadillac: FC (despite the rain)
Steak Knives: Sagan
Fired: Kwiatkovski

Wild card1: Cav
Wild card2: Kristoff

I think Van Avarmeat may be running out of gas.

didn't know you also like GvA
that's okay, i hear ozone is quite oxidative ;)

1: Degenkolb
2: Kristoff
3: Cancellara

WC: Sagan
WC: GVA

Can't go with GvA bc the other guys are riding clean and it's not fair. Woops, Sesame Street is coming on!
In a wet sprint, I'll go Kristoff bc I think he can go from further out better than Cav, while Cav surfs wheels and times his shots better than anyone. And Greipel too as he's just so powerful but he's looking beefy and this race will beat him down. If he's riding.
But I think if a group gets away, it should be Sagan. Dude does everything but win and now he wins. And I'll take his handling skills in bad weather.
But I'm waiting on the weather report and to plagiarize others' picks.

to taper off into the evening hours though. But the most salient point is the wind: 19-20 mph from NNE, which is mostly tailwind for the general direction and the descent and run-in to San Remo. It should make a fast race, which usually means a harder race. This would also be tailwind for all but the last two climbs, all of which are on the shallow side. The actual climb are hard to read as they head northwest, but the last mile of the Cipressa (at 3.1%) heads SW and the last mile of il Poggio (at 3.2%) heads NW.

My prediction is that if the weather holds, a late break is going to stay away.

Yeah, yeah, I know. More thinking out loud, need to narrow pick.

@Power - good call on Degenkolb, he's shaping up to be a classics beast. It's such a hard race that it's not who is the fastest sprinter, but how has the most sprint left after 290k. That's why I'm thinking it will go to someone with a few more classics in their legs.

YOu know what, I have been thinking the same. Guy has been racing hard since early in the season and I can't imagine him being able to maintain that till Flanders and Roubaix (or get even better).

In contrast, guys like Cancellara took a much slower start and are now really starting to ramp up. Sep also starts the season with minimal racing before Omloop (only Algarve) and rides Tirreno in energy-saver mode. It's a different approach and time will tell who's right, but I have my doubts GvA will still be as strong as he has been when we get to the Flanders & roubaix week.

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Don't forget to attack!

Got that right, Mr. Cav looked like he's had a few too many pastries with his tea at T-A. Hard to see him jamming with the classics guys up the climbs.

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1. Fab
2. VALVERDE
3. Sagan

Valverde is my "weird" pick :)

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

Saw that in Cav too but he's going to have a lot of help staying in. That said Etixx has a whole bunch of options so how hard do they work to keep Fatty McButterpants in the mix? They're going to want to have at least 1 guy in any break that looks sticky.

you are allowed two other "weird picks"

Cav was reportedly recovering from an illness that he picked up on a sponsor trip to South Africa just before the start of Tirreno. Hence his poor showing there...

Given his love affair with MSR, I expect that he'll be in the running when they hit the Poggio...then it all depends what happens on the Poggio...

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On twitter talking about Triathlon, Cycling & Sport Science - @taffytriathlete

1. Cavendish
2. Kristoff
3. Cancellara

WC - Navardauskas
WC - Boasson Hagen

I don't have any TV coverage of it until Monday morning (sportsnet, apparently curling is a big deal) so will have to either avoid the result or find a last 10k upload.....

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http://www.thedeludedcyclist.wordpress.com

1st: Kwiatkowski
2nd: Gilbert
3rd: Cancellara
WC: Degenkolb
WC: Lobato

Rain = Norwegian
1. Kristoff

WC: Edvald

Lobato- nice. Was thinking of him aa a semi dark horse.

watch me get pwned this round

i truly think the break would stay away this time. we shall see