Has he not been doing much running since the Commonwealth Games? if this is so, you are right, he won't medal.

Judging from this article earlier in the month and his Instagram he hasn't done much intensity running wise this year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/...t/triathlon/44688160

He'll still beast the swim and bike so his presence will change the complexion of the race. Will be an interesting one to watch.

Coninx and Vanriel are both great swimmers and strong on bike, he might end up working as their domestic without meaning too. They both run well.

I think what we are seeing now again is a new evolution. And as strong as JB is, his greatest strength was he had to badass guys in the break with him that were intent on pushing the pace. Now that's gone most of the time to the point that it's really 1 vs 1 vs 1 in the front group now on the bike. So in essence his single strength is way more neutralized and so while he has a strong swim/bike, the chase group has some very very very strong bike/runners that the front pack swim is now not a factor anymore. For all the times JB "pushes" the front group, he has an equal in Mola who does that for the chase pack now. There's no more "sitting in" with them in the back, they know if they make the catch, their strong runs are going to decimate JB now. So they are even more motivated even more so than I would say the front group is at the moment.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If you set Mola and Jonny off head to head on a Oly course, I'd be willing to bet Jonny would finish about a minute ahead of him at least, even on his current form.

Mola wouldn't even see Jonny till after the race with no one to draft off in the swim, and he's no where near as strong a biker as suggested just because he's started to do a few more pulls in the chase pack.

Mola not a strong cyclist? This is probably the one race which has had the least drafting out of any itu race, and his time was second to Alistair Brownlee's on the bike. This was back in 2013.

https://www.triathlon.org/...on_kitzbuehel/259525

Read what I wrote again, its been said twice he's as strong a cyclist as Jonny, I never said he's not a strong cyclist. Its Blum doing the majority of the work in the chase packs actually.

Just because someone is doing the majority of the work in a chase pack does not necessarily make them the 'stronger' cyclist. It may be that Mola runs as fast as he does because he is putting out less effort on the bike than others and that is because of his 'strength' as a cyclist, and his tactics/strategy where he generally chooses to do less work on the bike than others.

This... A few years ago, Mola was super guilty of sitting in the chase pack and then trying to run for the podium, but in the last few seasons he has stepped up a lot, and is usually at the front of the chase pack trying to get back in. That combined with there being a bit less bike firepower in the lead packs, has meant a lot more of the packs coming together before the end of the bike. The other obvious aspect is the loss of a couple of horses from the lead pack (AB for one, and since basically the CWG, Schoeman has been out too), making it a bit more feasible to bridge up than it was a couple of years ago.

I wouldn't write JB off, he's still a consistent top5 threat, even when he works in the break and they get caught which means he's no slouch. On the right day I'd recon he can still beat anybody currently racing ITU... A race like Montreal with the right dynamics on the swim could be one of those days (the bike course is hard/technical enough for the right break to stay clear).

Interesting to see the current simulations that suggest 17 MTR teams for Tokyo (based on current rankings, there are 17nations that have at least 2men and 2women qualified for the games, and are MTR eligible). The MTR rankings and qualifying just guarantees that number of countries automatically get 2 and 2, but countries not auto-qualifying for the MTR could still potentially line-up, if based on individual rankings, they still qualify at least 2 athletes of each sex.

Also interesting that only France and Australia (based on current olympic qualifying rankings) would have 3 and 3... (US has 3 ladies, 2 men, same with GBR)

I'd agree that the rumours of JB's demise are slightly exaggerated. But what you say regarding Montreal highlights the current problem for JB (and AB) - in the past the course and race dynamics would be an irrelevance as either Brownlee could control the dynamics of the race. That is no longer the case. This is further compounded by the fact that injuries are starting to catch up with them and this is reflected in their declining run splits (which are still pretty good by the way).

Well I finally got caught up watching the Edmonton races so I have been avoiding this thread. Glad to see Mola vs Brownlee in a theoretical 1 on 1 triathlon race is still a popular topic for discussion. I am however disappointed that no one is bitching about the course in Edmonton. So I will. I understand that there may have been some road construction issues this time around, but that was disappointing course selection and set-up. The bike course had portions out and back on a 2 lane road with no physical separation, the run course had long sections coned off at maybe 7ft width, and in the relay the run to the swim start was about the same distance as the swim itself. The racing was good though. The British women in particular are really looking good late in the season. I still think the US women look flat. I know Zaferes has sometimes struggled to keep the form going at this point in the season but still came through in the GF last year. I feel bad for the poor Canadians. Brown had a tough crash early in the year and then a great race at Commonwealth games and then has been AWOL since. Oh but the award for best dive goes to Valerie Barthelemy hands down.

You mean you didn't like the one guy from France who basicallly face/leg/belly flopped (I think it was the 4th leg). It was as if he wanted to dive while running on top of water at the same time.


That dive entrance was also a little weird/sketchy. It's like they were having to dive over the stairs that made up the bottom part of the swim exit, and it was shallow but kinda deep?

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Hamburg Blumm was in the lead pack, Mola still won.
Blumm crashed out of at least one race this season, Mola still won. He is strong enough on the bike and fast enough on the run to get the job done 1 on 1 . Mola isn't the only athlete beating Brownlee at the moment either, there are a few others stronger than B as he stands at the moment. Not writing him off for future races, but at this moment in time he isn't the dominant force he was.

I also read that as it stands at the moment 17 teams could enter the relay as have 2+2 qualified athletes. I am confused though that if this is thew case where is the relevance for the series? Earlier it was stated that top 7 auto qualify then rest race off and 3 more qualify. This recent release by ITU in which Marisol Casado was quoted, makes it sound like the series doesn't have the relevance first implied and anayone can enter if they have 2+2 qualified athletes. Anyone know anything concrete.

My understanding of the Olympic qualification process is that the first 20 places on each of the Male and female start lists are filled from the relay series and the "race off". This is particularly valuable for the teams that would struggle to qualify 2+2 individually but even for the countries that would expect to be able to qualify 2+2 via the individual rankings it is an insurance policy - why not make sure of having those spots and guard against missing individual spots because of injuries etc. Gaining individual spots is also going to be a bit harder because of some countries gaining spots via the relays that they wouldn't otherwise have had. On top of that everyone sees the value in racing as many good quality relays as possible as it is such a new discipline that there is a lot of learning to be had in tactics, team selection, equipment choice and training preparations.

you make the completely idiotic claim that JB currently is the best ITU racer "by a country mile," get called out on it (you obviously don't watch any races), then try and support your ridiculous claim regarding DRAFT-legal racing by stating that JB would destroy mola in a NON-draft race (notwithstanding the fact that JB basically never has raced a non-draft race) and then you STILL are arguing with the other poster??? what you should have posted was something along the lines of "i know i don't watch races and am talking completely out of my a$$ so thank you for pointing out the drivel i just posted and i won't post again until after i watch my first race."

JB has been off all year and isn't even in the top 3 this year (mola, luis, birstwhistle and even murray are having better seasons). you can blame it on no AB and gomez but he has been so off this year i think having those 2 push the lead pack would either blow him up for the run or he would be dropped. the sport is better when he is in top shape but, unfortunately, he hasn't been in 2018 and time is running out.

Completely miss represented the point I was putting across as well as twisted my words.

Can you quote me where I said Jonny was the best ITU racer? Also where he would 'destroy' Mola in a non draft race? (I think he'd beat Mola handily in a ITT over Oly distance or any non draft Triathlon race)

Not me speaking drivel here mate!

I say let it go, man. No one here know ITU would argue about JB racing Mola "in a ITT over Oly distance or any non draft Triathlon race"

Ok well I want to change course of discussion a little bit. Which GB ladies should make the Tokyo team? Sentimentally I would like to see Jodie Stimpson get a slot because I think she was deserving of Rio spot. She is definitely the best ITU triathlete in the last decade or so, to have never been to an Olympic Games. But realistically I don’t think she has top 3 potential still. Holland is obviously one of the best in the world and has medal potential in both races. Learmoth might be a good choice to guarantee a front bike pack. GTB is hot right now. Stanford when healthy is an individual medal contender. Anyone for Coldwell? I think I’d probably take GTB and tell her to focus on the relay. Take Learmoth and tell her to focus on silver or bronze from a small Duffy group. And take Holland to focus on the individual. I’d also tell any of the 3 to jog in after she was no longer in the top 5, (much to Sutton’s chagrin).

I would say if not top 10, then jog it in for relay. But will Learmonth just work as an unofficial domestique for Duffy, helping pull her further away from the other two if they don't make front pack, only to be run down and therefore costing GB a medal.

The way I envision it is if Holland makes a small front pack (4-8), she has her and GB’s best chance for a medal. If she does not, but the main chase gets to the front of the race by the end of the bike, Holland still has a very good chance for a medal. If this group doesn’t include Gentle or Sparig odds are of course improved. If however Duffy goes with a small group off the front which doesn’t include Holland and this group stays away then GB should want someone in that group. That would be Learmoth. I’m not sure what the time gap between a Learmoth and a chase would need to be but in my estimation it is a number that is certainly possible to see with Duffy in the race.

Tokyo race course is published.
https://www.triathlon.org/...aratriathlon_courses
Looks like a 2 lap swim and a bike with a lot of side walks/ bricks. Better get some grippy tires.

2K run on the MTR and no mention of hills on the bike so it likely will be another london pack ride. what a letdown after rio.

Oh crap, does that mean narrow bike so no width for passing, first out of water-first into transition? boring if so

From what I know, some of the strong cyclists wanted a break at the hill (obviously) but the pack kept them in, but when Stornes made his move, the Norweigans moved to the front, slowed the tempo, allowing him to get away, and then I guess everyone just assumed their little break at the end wouldn't be fruitful

If you were trying to convey something other than you think JB destroys Mola in a non-draft race, you did a bad job.

Whatever. Is the point you are trying to make that JB will be "back" (by his standards) by Tokyo. Because I think so too.