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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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I am not buying his statement either, it's not like mola was a passenger in that pack, many times the cameras went back seemed be he or Birtwhistle driving it, even before blumm broke away they had spent a lot time at the front. There were 4 in that front pack all pulling turns, those 2 in the chase did more than their share.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Tubs] [ In reply to ]
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Tubs wrote:
Just watched the post race interviews. BLUMMENFELT was asked how much of a lead off the bike he needs over Mola. His reply: "If we are both fresh, nothing.". Brilliant. Really love that he is pissed off about the race and backs himself. I love the way he races and love his attitude and hunger. He just got a new fan.

For him internally it's absolutely the right attitude. And I can understand the raw frustration.

But looking from the outside in it seems a little delusional. If he really believed he could beat him on the run fresh then he wouldn't have destroyed himself on the bike! It's either questionable tactics or the statement is BS. I go for the latter as tactically I think he got it spot on.

He has shown in the past that on the odd occasion he can outrun Mola. But that usually happened when Mola has had an off day or, as in previous seasons, his legs have been toast from the bike. This season Mola is on a different level. And with the exception of Edmonton where Blum got close, he hasn't been anywhere near Mola run wise.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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It will happen one day because of the age gap, just not yet. Blummenfeldt and Birtwhistle are the next gen, Mola and Murray are now. Who knows how much more those young guys can improve by Tokyo, I am guessing a fair bit though.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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I thought the same thing also.

However, with a guy like blummenfelt, i would never discount him in a head to head battle with anyone.

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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [chrisb12] [ In reply to ]
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chrisb12 wrote:
It will happen one day because of the age gap, just not yet. Blummenfeldt and Birtwhistle are the next gen, Mola and Murray are now. Who knows how much more those young guys can improve by Tokyo, I am guessing a fair bit though.

I'd say they was all now, Murray isn't exactly having a great season and both the next gen managed to beat him today!

Without looking at the rankings I think they've both had better seasons than Murray.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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What I meant was they may not be beating Mola yet, but with Blummenfeldt 24 Birtwhistle 23 their best year's are still a few years ahead of them. I think the older guys we are seeing now, or have already seen their best.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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Adman wrote:
Tubs wrote:
Just watched the post race interviews. BLUMMENFELT was asked how much of a lead off the bike he needs over Mola. His reply: "If we are both fresh, nothing."...


For him internally it's absolutely the right attitude. And I can understand the raw frustration.

But looking from the outside in it seems a little delusional. If he really believed he could beat him on the run fresh then he wouldn't have destroyed himself on the bike! It's either questionable tactics or the statement is BS. I go for the latter as tactically I think he got it spot on...


Initially I thought Blummenfelt was talking about both he and Mario getting off the bike 'fresh' because they were both in the same pack (and not doing any pulls = fresh).

Later I wondered if Blummenfelt meant when he was fresh for the Final and that's where he will beat Mario. (Probably not, just trying to give Blum some wiggle in the reality room.)

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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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I think its absolutely the right attitude for Blum to have, Triathletes are too nice and complimentary to each other.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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On the men's side of things, here are 2 things we know at this point for Tokyo:

1) You don't want to start the run with Mola
2) You don't want Jake Birtwhistle to be anywhere near you over the last 500m.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [messien] [ In reply to ]
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chappeau

messien wrote:
On the men's side of things, here are 2 things we know at this point for Tokyo:

1) You don't want to start the run with Mola
2) You don't want Jake Birtwhistle to be anywhere near you over the last 500m.

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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [messien] [ In reply to ]
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messien wrote:
On the men's side of things, here are 2 things we know at this point for Tokyo:

1) You don't want to start the run with Mola
2) You don't want Jake Birtwhistle to be anywhere near you over the last 500m.

3) The American Men would probably win a medal in the women's race
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Well timed escape! I was really glad to see Schilling get a good result after being off the front for so long. Very exciting 2nd half to the race. Pretty good drama on the run. Mola makes up 10s every 1.25 km until he gets within 7 seconds and then Blu finds some more energy and takes almost another mile until they draw even! Mola was definitely on his limit. And that pass was masterful. Anyway that run was Gwen territory.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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A few notes from someone who was there and very close to the action in Montreal...

Not sure what happened with Ashleigh Gentle, must have been a total brain fart, she rode through the dismount line (I think she expected it to be after the 180, not before, despite riding over the line on the previous 8 laps...) by a solid 10m and almost caused a pile up, as the rest of her pack where unsure whether or not to dismount (Sophie Chase almost went over the bars, but pulled it off, her rear wheel got a few inches of air though as she slammed the breaks). Holland's result was impressive given her slow start (apparently the speaker on the start signals malfunctioned for the ladies start, which is what caused the confusion) and navigational challenges... The riding in the chase pack was insane, as we saw the ladies who got shelled from that pack ride by they were shells of humans, absolutely shattered by the pace that (mainly) Spirig & Knibb were setting on the front... Not at all surprised by the relatively slow run splits compared to other WTS races after that ride...

Mola is insane, the run course distance was accurate, and with that hill and those weather conditions, that was an insane run split. I think Blu could have had him if he had held on to the downhill, but that was nuts. Richard Murray was a class act, when Birtwhistle blew by him in the finish straight, all he could do was applaud him. It's pretty crazy that everyone kept it upright on that course, with how wet it was (wasn't raining that hard during the race), but during most of the transition check-in, it was pretty epic... Charles Paquet's ride was insane, but with the home province crowd, he was for sure getting an extra push from all of the support...

Also, watch out from Emma Jackson's return... there was a conti cup sprint race in the morning before the ladies WTS race, and she absolutely manhandled the field (the description I heard was that she won before she jumped in the water, which is basically true, because she led solo tape to tape)... I suspect we might see her in some late season WC races, and back on the WTS tour at some point next year... I don't envy the olympic selectors for the US, GB or AUS ladies teams... It'll be hard for them to go wrong, but they'll likely be in for a few sleepless nights trying to choose...
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Trauma wrote:
Holland's result was impressive given her slow start (apparently the speaker on the start signals malfunctioned for the ladies start, which is what caused the confusion) and navigational challenges... .

Watching the start live and then viewing several replays, I had the impression that there was no "on your mark" given and then a quick series of three blasts of the horn that I took to mean there was a false start and the whole bunch was being called back. That lead me to believe that Holland and Casper were the only ones who didn't false start rather than the only ones asleep at the switch. Vicky is certainly running well and will be tough to beat in the GF is she holds her current form.

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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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the bad start and navigational challenges made no difference. She could have come out 20 seconds later or 30 seconds earlier and she would have been at the exact same spot starting lap 3 of the bike.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:

At this rate with the Brit women the selectors are going to have an absolute nightmare selecting 3 girls for this lot.

It will be fun.

If the Olympics were at the Gold Coast I would take Holand, GTB and Learmouth. I'd take Learmouth over Stimpson as the final pick because I want the one who I know will be in the lead pack. Now if Non makes it back...

The US Women are equally befuddling.

In both cases, though, I suspect things are going to get a lot clearer in the next 12 months.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Talking to the start team, the on your marks signal was given, and the horn, but the malfunction in the PA system made it hard to hear for spectators and potentially for the far end of the pontoon. There was no false start signal given either... So I don't think they were asleep at the switch, they were the furthest from the starter, and may simply have just not heard the signal...

It's tough to predict the dynamic of the grand final for a number of reasons:

Ladies
- Flora might be back
- (at least based on current plans) No Spirig (which is a huge blow for anyone missing the break at T1, since there will be a lot less horsepower in the chase)
- Some of the emerging studs will be racing U23 rather than elite (Knibb, Coldwell (she's currently on both elite and U23 start lists, her social media suggests she's racing with the big girls, but that puts GB over their limit for racers?), Vander Kaay, Beaugrand, Miller).

Men
- Return of Brownlee squared... (a relatively on form set of Brownlees, Vincent Luis along with team Norway have the potential to make a bike break that could put serious pressure on the Mola/Murray/Birtwhistles in terms of being able to run them down... This might finally be Blummenfelt's best hope for a WTS victory...).
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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The start list this morning does not show Duffy or Spirig. They were previously listed so this looks pretty certain that they are not going to be there. Plus Barrie said something about Spirig not going to Australia during the Montreal broadcast.

If Holland doesn't make the front bike group that leaves Stimpson and Gentle (and maybe Brown) as the best remaining cyclists to help tow the chase. Of course Holland has now had 2 recent "almost great swims." She has been in contact with the front group only to let the gap open herself. If she gets to the front of the race I don't see her getting out run by Zaferes.

In the U23 race if Coldwell isn't there then the swim pace is slower, which keeps Knibb closer to the front of the race. Beaugrand will be at the front of the swim and Knibb will certainly ride up to her. Gold Coast is flat but a solid move could shake her. Knibb did some serious pulls on the bike in her last 2 races and Lotte Miller is certainly seen commonly at the front of bike groups. They could get away. Coldwell really should be in this race. She has little chance in the elite race and is a poor choice for Holland domestique.

The men's race could be entertaining, but Mola has the series locked up. He only needs 14th to win. If he doesn't crash he can still start 3 minutes behind a break and still pick off enough people to easily finish top 14.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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I hadn't noticed that Flora had scratched. Even if Holland doesn't have a good swim, she still gets out of the water well ahead of Gentle... With bike studs like Brown & Stimpson likely in that group, they could probably ride up to a Flora less break, even without a Spirig... If they get off the bike close, Holland outruns Katie for sure... The bigger concern for the race win would be whether hey can hold off the Gentle charge on the bike on that course... that being said, Brown outran Gentle and Holland for the bronze in the CWG (coming off a collarbone fracture at Abu Dhabi)...

There is a 0.0% change Mola doesn't win the series, unless he doesn't show up or crashes/mechanicals out...

In terms of getting a result, I don't disagree that Coldwell might be better off in the U23... Also not sure how long it will take her to recover from Montreal, she was in very rough shape after that race... But smart money would be on Knibb in the women U23, and Leo Bergere in the mens U23... (would have like to see Stornes in that race... but I can see why the norwegian federation is racing Blu/Stornes/Iden at the senior level in terms of rankings/points for olympic qualification/to help Blu drop Mola)
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
If the Olympics were at the Gold Coast I would take Holand, GTB and Learmouth. I'd take Learmouth over Stimpson as the final pick because I want the one who I know will be in the lead pack. Now if Non makes it back...

The US Women are equally befuddling.
You don't think there's a clear 3 US women? Zaferes, Kasper and Spivey. You just can't trust Cook on the bike. The wildcard is Knibb and how much she'll improve in the next year. She's so strong on the bike.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Curious if any one has heard if Kirsten Kasper is looking to change from team USA to team Canada?

She was born in Ottawa - I think both her parents are Canadian - don't know if she'd still have Canadian citizenship.

She's also dating Canadian triathlete Matt Sharpe.

She could walk onto the Canadian team for the Olympics.

Team USA is far more competitive, though she is #2 right now I think, and the selection process usually depends on performing well at 1 or 2 designated races, so some risk of not making the team.

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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [mbwallis] [ In reply to ]
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What about Chelsea Burns? I'd probably throw her in as a wildcard over Cook.
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [HeartRN] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe. A lot can happen over the next year. I just know that as of now, 3 US women consistently finish in the top 10 of almost every WTS race. If they had to pick a team now, the team would be obvious.

On a different subject, and it's probably discussed in this thread somewhere, is there no hope for Gentle and her swim? If she could just stay near the front pack, she'd really be dominant in WTS with her strong bike and killer run. But it seems she has actually regressed this year. Is it just not realistic to improve swimming, as an adult, by the amount she'd need to improve by?
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [mbwallis] [ In reply to ]
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Totally agree with you, I'd pick the same three. Just throwing out another wildcard that could potentially improve (along with Taylor Knibb) next year. Right now the five US women racing the elite race are Zaferes, Kasper, Spivey, Burns, and Cook...and I'd be willing to bet that's the order they finish in actually
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Re: Official ITU discussion thread... [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Curious if any one has heard if Kirsten Kasper is looking to change from team USA to team Canada?

I doubt it at this point. Although before Jorgensen switched sports I was a big proponent of the move. She has an excellent chance of a medal in the relay by staying American. She has a great toolkit now, she just needs to keep making steady improvements. She is a medal contender at WTS level and on a perfect day a medal contender at championship level. If she races how she expects to race, she will be on the US team in Tokyo.
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