I think we're all extrapolating way too much from a season that isn't close enough to the Olympic cycle to really dictate a ton.

Additionally I think it's pretty unfair to assert that Kanute has to go earn the extra spot for the US or he isn't worth sending on the team. The US doesn't have a male medal contender, so what you're saying is Kanute should go through the meat grinder of getting an individual slot so the men can have three guys race. That makes no sense for his career. He's not an individual medal contender.

He earned his spot straight up last time, and the addition of the relay means simply you're going to pick your best person for that format, because the US men don't have a medal contender this cycle. That's a simple fact. The US has a legit shot at gold in mixed relay, so why would you throw that away to give someone else experience?

I'm all for fair evaluation and if Ben's form isn't good enough going into Tokyo, cool. But I don't think you can convince me as of this moment that he is clearly not one of the two best options for the relay.

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Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

[quote

I think we're all extrapolating way too much from a season that isn't close enough to the Olympic cycle to really dictate a ton.

Additionally I think it's pretty unfair to assert that Kanute has to go earn the extra spot for the US or he isn't worth sending on the team. The US doesn't have a male medal contender, so what you're saying is Kanute should go through the meat grinder of getting an individual slot so the men can have three guys race. That makes no sense for his career. He's not an individual medal contender.

He earned his spot straight up last time, and the addition of the relay means simply you're going to pick your best person for that format, because the US men don't have a medal contender this cycle. That's a simple fact. The US has a legit shot at gold in mixed relay, so why would you throw that away to give someone else experience?

I'm all for fair evaluation and if Ben's form isn't good enough going into Tokyo, cool. But I don't think you can convince me as of this moment that he is clearly not one of the two best options for the relay.[/quote]
True, but.. he needs to enter and do well enough to achieve the minimum olympic points before USA can consider entering him, no matter how good he is at MTR if he doesnt meet the minimum points criteria he can not be in. There is still a full year plus, but he will no doubt need to race a fair bit to get these points as he isn't really a top tenner, and many are also trying to achieve the same.

True - I just kinda assume that he and Jim have the math done on what they need to do and feel comfortable with the needs. Plus, helps to do all these races that have some money behind them so he can pad the bank account

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Interview with 3x Norseman winner Allan Hovda here

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Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

What you can extrapolate is specificity. Specificity in that ITU racing is almost going exclusively to the sprint distance racing- means it is going even closer to the energy system + racing specifics required that matches the MTR specific demands of competition. If you can say taking on 70 training works to help that specifics, I'd be interested in hearing that conversation. (and yes ITU athletes have on occasion jumped into 70.3 events, I've not seen many sorta skip out entirely on an WTS schedule for 70.3 races specifically though).

Athletes have to make all kinds of decisions in their career. Especially at the ITU level, outside of 10th you might as well be a "no body" cus that's how your paid (not including federation stipends). So I cant fault an athlete who's trying to make the best decision for themselves. All I can say is that with all decisions in life, when you take the right pathway instead of the left pathway at the fork in the road, you may lose out on what was down the left pathway. If you can accept/handle/understand that then you've done all you can to make the most sound decisions in life. That's how you want to approach any decision and when that's done, then you take whatever happens down the road.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

In regards to your comment about Eli Hemming and not being able to compare him to Kanute, I think we can get some analysis. Earlier this year in March, there was a Continental Cup that was the sprint distance in Sarasota in which Eli outperformed Ben. In addition to this, on the WTS circuit in Nottingham, Eli threw down the fastest run split out of everyone in that race. While ben is an aggressor on the bike and one of the better swimmers, if Eli can match that then outperform Ben on the run then there would be a very solid relay member.

Threads like this have me laughing my ass off and shaking my head. I am amazed sometimes at what people will say on here, as tho facts should play no role in the discussion.

Do carry on tho...I’m entertained!

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Jim Vance
http://TodaysPlan.com.au (Disclosure: I am contracted with Today's Plan)
http://www.CoachVance.com/
Twitter @jimvance

why don't you enlighten us?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

USAT's selection process is out and here's link to it.

https://www.teamusa.org/...thlete-qualification

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Can you summarize?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Auto spots:
2 will be given at the Tokyo test event. If 2 athletes finish top 3, they are on the team. If 1 top 3, then the next person in top 8 gets the spot and those 2 make the team.

2nd qualifier will be 2020 Yoko May event (if 2 spots are already taken, then that gender isn't racing for the 3rd spot...3rd spot is discretion).

3rd spot and/or all unfilled spots (far more likely for the men's team) will then go to discretion- IE this is where MTR comes into play.

ETA: I should add the women are pretty much guranteed a 3rd spot. The men will be close to getting 3 spots. Matt McElroy was hurt the last half of the season with a foot injury so that really messed up his chances. Ben Kanute is also not ranked as he didn't do any races in the qualification period *yet*.


Tokyo very likely will have a 50 person group (or pretty much the entire main group of contenders) coming into T2, so make whatever theories you want on who that favors or doesn't favor.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Tokyo course has no real elevation, the only real advantage I can see is some type of attack/crash when they ride through what looks like a park around middle section of the bike course (green section on the map). So what I'm saying is that I see this as a Yoko style of T2 big group vs an Rio style that had a hill and that allowed athletes to make it count.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It is a very "If...Then" set of qualifications. This can make it confusing when taken as a whole. In my estimation the salient points are:
-There are 2 qualification races: Tokyo Test Event in August 2019 and Yokohama WTS May 2020.
-Top 8 is good, top 3 is better.
-The Tokyo Test Event is the more important of the 2 races for women
-This is the most discretionary set of standards every devised by USA triathlon for Olympic games selection.

As for prognostication...There is little chance for 3 male spots. I'm pretty sure no US boy currently vying for a spot has ever finished top 8 at any WTS. So a breakthrough performance will be needed. I give it 50/50 for a single guy to achieve auto-selection. The women will almost certainly get an auto-qualifier at Tokyo. They have a very good chance of getting 2. I would bet that 1 or 2 slots are still down to discretionary selection for the women. If only 1 US woman auto-qualifies, I would rate these selection criteria as a big failure, but I really hope this doesn't happen.

They have a very good chance of getting 2. I would bet that 1 or 2 slots are still down to discretionary selection for the women. If only 1 US woman auto-qualifies, I would rate these selection criteria as a big failure, but I really hope this doesn't happen.


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One note- The 3rd spot for the women (and men if they were to qualify 3 spots) will be discretion. There is no pathway for the 3rd to "automatically" qualify. (which is important when you factor in the MTR team).


On your note with the women, I don't think it would be a big failure on the selection process. It would be failure on the athletes, as we've had 2 US athletes in top 8 at every ITU race EXCEPT for the 1st WTS race this year but KZ crashed out hard as she was likely top 5 finish. So they would have 2 chances to "auto qualify" if they can't do what they've done for the past 1.5 years, that's on them, not a tough "selection process". Hell they have 4 ranked in the top 10, so top 8 isn't an "impossible" standard, especially with 2 chances to do it (if it's not done in 1st event).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think it is highly unlikely the US women with have 3 auto-qualifiers. But it is possible with 1 lady placing top 3 in Tokyo and a second lady in the top 8, then a podium for a 3rd lady at Yokohama would give 3 auto-qualified spots.

I will also stand by my opinion that discretionary selection is by its nature inferior to discrete achievement based selection and selections processes should reflect this. Furthermore, I maintain that these criteria leave open the possibility that one could achieve exceptional results in these 2 events yet not be awarded an Olympic start. (For instance twice finishing 4th would not guarantee a selection.) Your opinion, though potentially differing, is of course welcomed. In any case, I am very excited to see what will transpire.

Actually yes re-reading it, the only way we have 3 auto-spots is if 2 are taken at Tokyo test and a podium is then taken at the 2nd event. The unique situation with those situations is that if those athletes who have already auto qualified at event #1 race it kinda creates situation where by finishing higher, they are "pushing down" the available spots if they finish higher and on a podium (all legal to do of course). GJ did this at Yokohoma 2016. By racing and dominating it then meant really only 2 spots were going to be available for the auto spots.

And I'll stand by my statement....If our athletes who 4 of them are in the top 10 cant get 2 auto spots out of that criteria where the min qualification is top 8 and that's been achieved with 2 US athletes in top 8 at every WTS event except 1, I dont think that standard is so hard it creates an unfair process.

The only way to get rid of "selection process" issues that you are suggesting is simple- race. 1 race where spots are up for grabs. The issue becomes how do you do that. Is it an "US trials" where 22 guys are racing for the spots and the top 2 or 3 makes the team? I think it was actually done that way early on the first few Olympics and I *think* they realized having only handful of olympic caliber guys racing in a small race that mimmicks much more a CC type race situation vs WTS doesn't do much to mimmick real WTS results. So what do they do now, they create the "trials" within WTS events now. So essentially there is no skewing of the data, you are racing your Olympic race peers.

I remember Matt Chrabot suggested it wasnt fair that he led the olympic points and didnt make the 2012 team. I said to him and his coach, it sucks to do all that work, secure a "spot" for the US and not make the team. I also told him, you did have 2 chances to make it, and so just remember that part of it. These athletes have 2 opportunities to figure it out, and it's like what 8 months apart. So is double 4th's world class and crappy to not make it automatically- yep. But let's wait for it to happen and then we can say X athlete got robbed. I would put that way down on the "probability" lists and using that type of result as an big factor in deciding a "fair" selection process would be pretty worrisome.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think we're way ahead of ourselves, I don't know we can come top 8 and earn three slots for the men.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I think we'll sneak in and get 3 men's spots.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'd be shocked if the US can snag 3 spots for men. The only reason I am confident they could even get two, is because of the MTR rankings... They could easily qualify 5 women if there weren't a cap on team size, but unless a couple of guys step up big time I can't see earning a 3rd spot...

I think you have to look at how many athletes have 6 or 7 events scored now and realize that all they'll do now is replace their lowest score (with a likely similiar place so not much movement in points). It also means they likely aren't going to jump a ton vs athletes who have very few scores and then get big jumps from the 3 races left in the 1st qualifying period.

Guy like Henri Schoeman only has 3 ranked events, you add likely top 10 finishes the next 3 events and he's going to gain much more ground vs guys "replacing" events with likely similiar results as they've had.

So that's how a guy like McElroy (11th,17th,21st finishing WTS 2018 races) can go from 58th to 30-35th by the end of the 1st qualifying period. So then that means what 3 guys in the top 40? And you sit in much better position and the talk suddenly changes.


And I'm also looking at this very realistically, I'm not giving these guys *unrealistic* finishes to make jumps in rankings. I'm looking at what they've done, what they likely will do and apply it in the rankings. Yes others will move around as well, but Matt's finishes showcase he can most likely finish top 25 at the next 3 events. So I don't think I'm looking at this with rose colored glasses.

ETA: Pearson the 2nd/3rd guy hasn't even begun on the WTS full time yet. Like his 38th ranking only has 1 WTS score. But he just started triathlon in 2017...it's really unreal imo what he's doing. He's a hella better swimmer than I thought he would be with his studly run ability. So if yall are already writing U.S. squad off, don't be surprised if things change greatly.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

At Cozumel 2016, who ever would have thought that Josh Izewski would be a much more accomplished professional marathoner than Gwen Jorgensen just two years later?

Well he did beat her in that race but they started in different waves and she had that really heavy gold medal weighing her down. Plus how many babies has he had and does he even have Talbots movies?

How does the bike compare to London would people say? Which is flat as a pancake and prety much impossible to break.

If I remember correctly London only had 1 real issue with the course, I think it had those "speed humps" on a few sections. I believe that was the reason SW crashed out while trying to get into his shoes. I believe the women's race had rain and some crashed. But it was all on normal wide urban roads.

Tokyo looks like a section goes through an park which may make for tighter racing with likely tighter road vs the normal wider urban roads that London had.

I think Yoko added a small dogleg through a park this past year, and a few athletes got "pinched" because of the tightness.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II