monty wrote:
more specifically in the opening 10km of the run. // Ali is a really smart racer, and I think that is one of the hard lessons he just learned in Nice. He underestimated the leader, put in a surge to catch and pass him, and then paid for that later. If Iden was not going to be on that day, it may have worked and he would continue to think this a good strategy. But getting spanked has a way of making one a bit more reflective, and listening to a couple of his interviews since that race, he admits that was a mistake. And he knows there are guys just like that going to Kona, and it is new territory for him, so I expect he will not race aggressive, but use what pace he believes he can hold. Of course in a marathon that is really tricky, it will feel super slow for him to actually run low 6 minute pace, when his is more used to 5 to 5;20 paces..But that's what watches are for....
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Should we put money on this
Brownlee
- first 3 miles sub 5:30 pace which is way sub 2:30 pace
- last 3 miles (including Palani donwhill > 7 pace (so in excess of 3 hrs marathon pace).
He needs to watch Dave vs Mark and Dave jogging on Alii Drive and Mark just copying Dave. The guys look like they are barely moving. Go to 4:18 in this video when Dave and Mark pass Wolfgang. I'd say they are generally moving slower than most of the top pros move at these days out of T2 because they are trying to play a tactical game and shed followers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOcz-wPLLRE
If you open part 5 of this series they say that they covered 4 miles at just over 2:40 marathon pace. So the guys actually negative split the day (keeping in mind that they had to do the pit in the first 4 miles so that would slow things down somewhat).