Crowie podiumed in Kona on his first full ironman I believe.

Yes but it wasn't in Kona. His first Ironman was in Australia.

Where was it then?

Ironman Australia 2007 where he came 3rd..

AB is a smart guy. If he does not hold back it will be for a racing reason that, based on his experience, will pay dividend for the entire race. His tactics for Nice were good. He was beaten by a worthy champ who was better than him on the day. Iden did great to come out in the front swim pack which put him in a strong position from the start.

Nice was a long climb and likely AB did not fuel enough for the considerable effort. RvB also changed the dynamics that day with his intimate knowledge of the descent which, as shown, negated this effort.

If you have not caught up with the podcast below, it is worth listening to (and actually better than the one with Simon). Mark, the host, has a pub style type chat that relaxes AB to get some decent insights. It was recorded post Ireland and pre-Nice and demonstrates AB's passion for long distance from an early age.

https://www.spreaker.com/...athlon-brick-session

You could get a Kona spot in Smithers BC (Olympic) up until early 90’s.

Also wildflower was a perennial early season favourite Q among pros.

Maurice

Note: the interview with AB starts after 18 mins

Ahh!! For some reason I had it in my head he qualified by winning 70.3 world champs and then didn't do an ironman before Kona.

I'll have a listen, thanks.

Good point about RvB. Perhaps a very different result if it had been a flat course. I wonder if having a TT bike over road made any difference? My BMC road bike is 6.8kg, almost 3kg lighter than my BMC TT bike, it would certainly be quicker climbing and descending.

Haha. It's going to be a good race! Is this the strongest field for male Pros in a long time(ever)?

I don't think Ali will master Kona (at least for a long while) and I could see him doing a Simon Lessing type race and not even finishing

Part of my rationale is thinking

1. heat is not his friend especially for his first year where even a trained machine like he is, won't be use to the length of the day in conditions that are manageable for sub 4hr races but quite a different thing for 8hr races. I know some will say he races fine in heat but Ive seen evidence it takes a lot out of him given how he tends to race. He gets it done in heat at olympic distance but he's cleary had some epic torture fests when its hot.

2.I also think he is an emotional racer. Which for shorter events works just fine (as he has well proven). Again, I fear the patience needed for Kona is just not for him. I think he could start out patient and make the mistake of either getting bored sitting in and start mixing it up or simply thinking he'll hammer away off front early. I could see him being a major factor until later in the bike and then he falters and does not deliver the run weapon so many think he will do.

3. I have not seen proof he knows how to fuel for the distance. Ireland was not convincing he had that working and it was not the best practice with it being cold. And maybe he slowed it down on purpose but it did not look like he was going to rip off a sub 2:45 in heat based on that run. Saying that I suspect he'll be fitter and leaner by Kona

My 2 cents is Kona will simply not suit how he is wired and races. Feel free to bring this post back if he wins !

That is a damn heavy bike! My P5D weighs 8.1kg v my road bike at 6.7kg and in BBS it had my TT bike faster by several minutes (and it was spot on for actual day/bike I chose). One thing about Nice, it had about 35km of TT heaven flat that was a huge negative for a road bike. Also, the descent was not very technical, for a competent rider, so the bike choice there made little if any difference.

I enjoyed listening to AB in the podcast, and it was reassuring that he respects the race and has more rational thought than many here give him credit for. Also, spending a month in the heat of AZ and Kona will allow him to acclimate and test his fueling under those difficult conditions. I give him a shot at doing the unthinkable, but also see Kona as course that suits only a very few (those that magically don't lose any salt in their sweat) and it is a very tough race environment that regularly chews up the best and most well prepared.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

This gets mentioned a lot, but whenever anyone queries it, no-one can point out an instance where he has actually struggled in the heat. In fact a lot of his big wins have come in Kona like conditions, Rio, Beijng, Gold Coast etc There was one race in the heat where he ran a 35min 10km, but that was his first race back after a long injury lay off and the only reason is his brother has struggled a few times and so he gets tarred with the same brush.

Edit - just saw that he's currently training in the Arizona desert, 100F heat.

Sorry 2 kg. 6.8 vs 8.8.

Good to hear! I thought the BMC was lighter!

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

I cannot see him in the Podium. This why
- Not enough training for IM
- First time in Kona has a toll
- He suffers in heat. One thing is an 1.50h effort, a very different one is an 8hs'.
- Too many contenders to beat: Frodo, Lange, Kienle, Aernouts, Currie, Beals, Mc Namee, ...even Wurf or Sanders, and my dark horse, Eneko Llanos...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

For the love of God...

Lol I think heat has maybe even a bigger effect in shorter more intense races that can still go close to 2 hours as your body temperature is going be much hotter given the intensity. Witness some of the carnage at hot itu races.

My thoughts are he'll be fine until about 6 miles into the run. This is based on both IM Ireland and Nice. The drop off in his run in both races was quite a lot in both races and he didn't look great in either. What he eventually runs will still keep him inside the top10 but it won't be low 2:4X.

He has quoted he still thinks he could have run 1:07 for the run in Nice, but I honestly can't see where he is getting this from. That is over 3 mins quicker. So the only explanation for this belief is there was an element of under nutrition which for me is more worrying going into Kona. He has done this in a couple of 70.3s now.

Longer term I think once he gets things figured out and fully commits then I don't see anyone beating him in races outside Kona. Not even Frodo (age will catch up with him). 400W FTP? He can potentially ride 300-320W while having a sub 48 swim and if he gets things right a sub 2:40 run.

If only he had access to to world class coaches like Malcolm Brown or Jack Maitland or a heat chamber at a university or a great nutrition company backing him with custom products if so needed or even my email... 🤣🤣

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Ha ha. I actually think old Malcolm has retired but was a great influence on the brothers. Great coach.

Apparently AB is training with quite a lot intensity.

On the other hand Iden is training (thanks Arild for the insight in Norwegian training routine) with much more low and medium intensity, with his teammates Blu and Stornes.

IMO, from this simple observation, I would guess (not a very educated guess, however) that at 70.3 race pace, AB is relying more than Iden on glycogen, while Iden is relying more than AB on fat consumption.

FTP is obtained 100% from glycogen consumption. Great for an hour record, but does this have an impact on IM distance ?
No. Not directly.
A 70kg guy with a FTP of 380w can be much better in IM than a 70kg guy with 400w FTP, if its fat consumption is better trained. Because IM is more relying on fat consumption.

Don't get me wrong, AB is great.

But my view is that he is relying too much on sugar consumption, creating problems at 70.3 distance and even more at IM distance :
70.3 Nice WC : slowing at the end, and apparently getting gastric issues
IM Ireland : seriously slowing at the end, not capable of feeding the body.

My view for Kona :
AT not on the podium. Possibly top 10. Possibly not finishing with gastric issues.
If Iden was in Kona, he would blow AT away :-)

Where do you get this from?

Ahem...

I think we'll leave Luc out of any conversations