Well for starters, one of the demographics hardest hit by covid is black Americans and we all know they're staying home and not out jogging.

Do I need to put this in pink?

I live in Atlanta and honestly not much has changed. Businesses and restaurants are open but not a ton of people are out. Most of the people working from home still are. Many restaurants are still takeout/delivery only. So while there is more activity than in the early weeks when it was literally a ghost town, it's not that different than 4/23 before things were open. Allowing limited in person dining and haircuts doesn't really change much. My barber is open now (I haven't gone in yet) but at slightly reduced capacity so he's seeing maybe 30 people a day with his team. That's really nothing compared to a concert or bar or festival all of which are still closed.

Last week bars were getting ready to open - saw the beer truck making multiple deliveries but then the order closing them is extended until end of May I believe. Also while gyms are open, many of the big chains like LA Fitness are still closed. The gyms I saw around here open are all specialized personal training or class gyms with small groups. And while they're technically allowed to open, movie theaters are still closed. Not sure what will happen once crowds are allowed again.

I think behavior has changed which is why things haven't exploded. Having said that, if we didn't have the lockdown and people just kept on as normal, I think things would be much worse.

Alternatively, they could just be playing with the numbers as apparently they're moving the data however they want to justify the opening...

Like the other poster said, it is all about what people are actually doing. I'm afraid that here in CA, it is not going to be good in a week or two. We are still somewhat locked down, at least that is what all the protesters are saying. But I see big crowds all over the place, parks, beaches, restaurants, etc. I think we had 2000+ new cases today, more than lately. I would imagine that number is just going to climb over the next weeks. I guess good news is we have room for all the dead people we will be getting, and that hospital ship didnt go too far away.

I really hope for peoples sake that summer takes the RO on this thing down considerably, but I haven't seen any evidence of that thus far, here and around the world. I think the prediction that someone made that we will all have been close to someone that will have died of this virus by Xmas time, is going to proven right. I already have two friends gone from it, hoping it doesnt hit my immediate circle or family..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...nts-get-coronavirus/

---

“Read the transcript.”

We are just starting to open up which I think is needed but WTF? Across the street yesterday a party with about 15 people on the lawn no social distancing. People going places in groups. Like why do you need to go to the hardware or grocery store with two people to pick up one thing. The best is two people going to gov't liquor store to get one bottle of wine? With what we are going through you are going to be back tomorrow. Almost no masks. I am flummoxed. I just don't get it. Like what did we just go through 9 weeks of hell for anyway.?

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Fixed it for you I think but maybe miracles do happen

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

It takes a few weeks for cases to spread, and deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks.

Agreed. Way earlier to be celebrating. It’s the next 3 weeks that will tell the tale.

I hope you weren't referencing the chart our health department put out with the dates on the X-axis out of order so that it showed a gradual decline in cases. They gave some BS excuse why they did it that way and finally succumbed to rational thought and took it down. It worries me our governments are doing everything they can to get people to return to their normal lives. It's growing increasingly difficult to take anyone seriously anymore.

Just saw South Korea shut schools again because of a couple of students tested positive. If we plan to open up and close back down after a couple of new cases are exposed, we are considering opening up entirely too early.

Georgia Department of Public Health is backfilling data. And in this case backfilled 20 days.
this will cause a rolling curve

Attached are daily screenshots of 24apr confirmed cases. Data for 24apr was inclining over 8may to 13may.
on 14may a decrease of 9 from they day before.

Can a clear decision be made based on shifting data? Are the test protocols being updated for better precision?

A good dataset might be how many Hospitalizations... 08may 5974 .... 20may 7089 over a 12 day span an increase of 1,124

Probably because lots of people are still staying home.

And probably luck where there are crowded places.

Drove up to Georgia and spent Wednesday through Sunday there. Rode mx at the Georgia practice facility for three days . Got to get some cycling in with a few pro supercross riders on some great country roads. Dined in at longhorn steakhouse twice in Thomasville . Sunday went to Silver dollar mx and attended the first national since the pandemic. Over 1200 entries! It was bananas and a blast. Nice to see folks being Independently responsible and not overwhelmed with fear and paranoia waiting for orders from some Overlord

mobility data shows that people in GA and FL are hunkered down.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

As they should. The goal should be to implement measures to manage the spread while creating the least amount of disruption to normal life as possible. In some areas, it feels like they're doing everything they can to keep us from normal lives even if the numbers are good.

According to this analysis of where the outbreaks are happening, there's a lot we can do to get back to somewhat normal lives while still managing the spread. https://www.erinbromage.com/...know-them-avoid-them

And the data from restaurants shows the same.

Just like mobility and other data showed people staying home before the stay at home orders. People are genuinely concerned about the situation and simply telling restaurants to open won't make people suddenly go.

Stopping the stay at home order won't make things return to normal or lead to a recovery. You need people believing the virus is under control. That should be the focus, not the complaining about stay at home orders.

It will be interesting to see how the reopening is different in different areas. Will areas like Seattle see a slower or faster return than other areas? Will it be slower because of more caution or faster because there is trust that the local government has things under control? What about New York City where the local government messed up and there were lots of death? I think the return is going to show a clear connection to how much people trust the local and state government.

Or maybe we are going to see that small changes, like some mask wearing and no large events, is enough to control it. I kinda doubt it based on the cases seen in South Korea, it seems everything can be under control and then very quickly spike, so a very good test and trace program is required even with the small changes.

See here is where I believe you're wrong.. It's not about paranoia and fear.
It's about protecting the vulnerable..

While you may believe that everyone adhered to proper protocols, I doubt 1200+ adhered to them 100% of the duration.

It only took 1 infected person to lead us to where we are today.

post removed

It worries me our governments are doing everything they can to get people to return to their normal lives. It's growing increasingly difficult to take anyone seriously anymore.


Governments are just doing what the business community is demanding. Large stores can open, small local stores can't, that just about sums up what is going on. It has nothing to do with helping people, it once again has everything to do with profit. I feel bad for those people who stayed at home and lost 2 months pay while others flout the laws and carry on with their normal lives.


People suck.

#allivesmatter

#mybodymychoice

#imafuckingimbecile

Your post got me thinking since I am from Atlanta but now live thousands of miles away.

My very scientific questioning of old contacts on Facebook reiterates what other posters have mentioned.

Most behaviors are staying the same according to my friends and relatives. In other words people are still mostly staying home, lots of visible mask wearing when they do go out, spacing when in parks, mostly take out from restaurants. These are all around the metro Atl area.

My aunt lives in Helen (cheesy Bavarian-themed town in the Mtns) , and she said the businesses are trying to adhere to guidelines, but tourists are acting like it’s a normal spring outing..few to no masks, crowding, etc. I wonder If some of th e vacation mentality creeps in where people act differently than at home? You know...eating poorly, skipping exercise, drinking more, staying up later, etc.

I just got home from a 5 mile run through midtown/downtown. Downtown is deserted except for homeless people. Very few businesses open. Midtown has people everywhere. I would guess about 1/3 wearing masks. Most businesses are open. 70% of restaurants. Even group fitness centers like Orange Theory are open.

I am now going to play some sand volleyball and then out to dinner.

Now it has been over a month since many businesses were allowed to reopen April 24th. Things still looking ok. Hospitalizations have been going down. (Tiny blip up in latest numbers.)

Becoming pretty clear that most business can be conducted with minimal risk. Subways, buses, dance clubs, indoor concerts, full churches, full restaurants, etc., remain higher risk.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Evidently not in NYC where they weren't shut down, and only recently received additional cleaning.

-
The Cuomo response was very bad, nevertheless, he spoke well about said response, and for that he was lauded for not being Trump. Just now starting to see stories out pointing out the realities of how badly he screwed up and how much better states like FL did.

https://www.theguardian.com/...onavirus-catastrophe

Don't think subways remaining open meant they weren't high risk, just that they were essential. Public transport is a very different thing than a club or bar.

Here in Atlanta they suspended a bunch of peripheral bus routes to divert buses to the heavily trafficked areas in order to lighten passenger loads on each bus. That caused issues with people who live outside the city and don't own cars.

Not really sure what you can do with public transportation in time like this other than modify service and clean more.

I bike 2-3 times a week from Buckhead through Decatur, Midtown, and Downtown. Midtown and Decatur look pretty normal now and you see people at restaurants and just out. But if you look closer, you realize that there's really only 3 tables of people on patio and huge space inside is basically empty. Downtown basically became a giant homeless shelter but it's still coming back a little. When I was going through early April there were zero cars or non homeless people. Now I see some office workers and a few open restaurants - most companies including my employer are still WFH. It's unfortunate that shelters had to close so there's less support. Noticeable increase in homeless throughout and especially in Buckhead where I am.

Seeing people in gyms for group class still looks weird, not used to it yet. Walked by F45 the other day to see a class and several people were using Lysol wipes to hold the weights while working out. I've been following the restaurant openings and most are open but quite a few of the high end ones are still carry out only - most of those are scheduled to open this week and next though.

A few studies have come out that show that a small number of infectious people (between 5% and 20%), are responsible for 80% of infections, ie a small number of people spread it the most. We don't know if that is due to the behavior of those people or if the virus is more contagious in those people. But this can explain partly why some places did not get as bad as others.

So everything looks fine, then you get some superspreaders overlapping at the same time and cases jump very quickly. Now you have more people infected, which means more superspreaders, and so on and so on.

Also, this helps with contact tracing, because isolating a super spreader really helps control the spread. Just by luck contract tracing may be pretty effective.

Agreed. But in some studies I've seen referenced, super spreaders need proximity and time with people. Continuing social distancing should reduce the ability of super spreaders to super spread.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

POP

This did not age well.

Every post like this and every victory lap needs to end with "yet". Until there is a viable vaccine or treatment, bad news is just a matter of luck and time.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

x2. Particularly in NYC, where a ton of people don't have cars. Or have them and can't effectively use them to get to work.

Part of the huge increase in bike sales is likely to get around subway use. But tons of essential workers probably use the subway.

from what I see every day there is no stopping that upward swing until we've all had it

That is not funny.

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_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.

I’ve been saying that for months. But everyone wants to fight and drag this thing forever. Sometimes, the best approach is letting the opponent score.

America. The country where people are so self centered and weak they can’t handle stopping a virus like every other developed nation. Might as well roll over and take it.

Yes, no stopping it.

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----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

Yes there is. Everyone wear masks. Everyone stop going to restaurants/bars. Don’t do things indoors with many many other people. If you do (shopping for example) the. Everyone must wear a mask.

This really isnt all that difficult.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Then come to NJ, or go to Italy or Germany or Spain or Australia or Korea or...

But masks don't work and the media is using them to make Trump look bad.

https://twitter.com/...002329183662080?s=21

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?!?!?!?!?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

him, the male Trump impersonator, and the lady impersonator who lip syncs his briefings are all amazing.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Both you and Kay took my post out of context. I live in GA. That stuff isn’t happening and isn’t going to happen. Period. I’m not saying it shouldn’t. I’m saying it isn’t and won’t. There are only two ways to stop it here at this point. Everyone gets it or people have to step over their dead loved ones to get to Chik-Fil-A.

Slowtwitch. The place where people are so delusional that they think a flat curve is called beating a virus. Might as well have a victory parade in every other country and let America burn.

What are you showing me? I don’t see a zero virus count! What i see is people hiding in their homes thinking the virus is gone if the graph goes downwards. like a turtle who withdraws into its shell thinking the predator is gone when it can’t be seen. Meanwhile the predator is patiently waiting for the turtle to pop your head out.

Seriously! What is that graph and what do you think you are seeing?

 
Then come to NJ,

What exit? Har har. Boy I hated driving up the turnpike.

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Steve

Are you paying attention? That’s not gonna happen. Even in virus hotspots, like Houston area where I am at, more than half the people won’t do what you said. It’s not gonna happen!
But even hypothetically speaking if everyone did that, how long will you do that for? Until there is zero Covid? How can you be sure there is no Covid? Test 9 billion In the world? What about animals who can be vectors? The moment you open everything up, it will spread again.

Then let all your old people die then. Maybe herd them up and put them all in a bar and get it over with quickly.

Or hold it off until a vaccine is ready. That’s the choice.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

One other thing to consider that is if other countries can contain the infection and the USA cannot, that will have negative economic and political consequences to the USA.

As a Canadian I wonder about that. EU is making a list of countries to allow flights to/from and US wont be on it. I can't see us opening our border to non-essential travel any time soon given what's going on in the US (though lots of idiotic, selfish Americans are finding ways around that).

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Long Chile was a silly place.

3 points

They stopped it by getting a lot of their residents infected. Is that the solution you propose?... ;)

Do you think Hong Kong stopped it through herd immunity? Australia? Germany?

They aren't over it. They may have to keep stopping it forever...

The aspect that you (and everyone else) should find interesting is that areas that have experienced higher rates of infection are not seeing any flareups with opening. The flare ups are all occurring in states that had light cases before. "Letting it run" may not be such a bad strategy.

1) not everyone who get this dies. Very very few. Even in the elderly and sick population. It’s not a death sentence if you get it.
2) don’t hold your breath for a vaccine. I don’t care what they say about the vaccines going into phase 3, we are far away from that.
3) look up the charts. Texas has the lowest deaths per 1M residents of any state. So far.
4) I don’t think we have a choice. If you shut down people too long, they will rebel. You will see people out in the streets and into government buildings. And you certainly can’t keep writing checks to them for several months.

OK, I looked up "the charts". (or here) Maine, Utah, WV, Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii all have lower deaths per capita.

Not everyone dies, but we still don't know the number of people that have permanent damage to their bodies as a result of the disease. We don't know what that permanent damage even is. My brother-in-law sister still cannot taste or smell. We have no idea if that is permanent, it has been almost 3 months now, or what other damage was also caused. There could be serious life long effects that we still don't know about.

Death is not the only thing to worry about here. People with life long damage is not going to be good for the economy either.

It really is cavalier of you to think that it will be fine to let run wild. There is still so much we don't know.

It's amazing how defeatist some people are. Modern western civilization kicked the shit out of polio, smallpox, measles, rubella, tetanus, hepatitis A/B, rubella, Hib, whooping cough, mumps, chickenpox, diptheria, etc. Through a combination of targeted public health measures and vaccines.

But there's nothing we can do here - let's just roll over let a million or two people die (worldwide) and avoid the inconvenience of trying.

How many people have died with those diseases that we have kicked their asses? They will take your 2 mil and laugh at you.

There are ~60M deaths per year currently. So assuming this runs its course in a year, that's a 1.7 to 3.3% increase. And since C19 very heavily targets those who have little time to live in any case, you'd expect fatality rates to decline a bit vs baseline when it's over.

There is plenty being done... but is it really necessary to force everyone to follow some draconian mitigation policy for this? Why not let people can mitigate to whatever extent they wish?

Fine. But those states barely have a any metropolises. Or don’t. The biggest I can think of is SLC or Honolulu and they are definitely not big. Compare it to the big boys and you bc ant deny that the death rate is staggeringly low compared to them.

That seems to be the current plan. The rest of the world is getting their victory parades ready (with masks and proper social distancing.) Survivors aren’t always the strongest, but those that can adapt.

Here is the way you “beat a virus”
1) Flatten the curve
2) reduce the number of new cases to levels that are easily traceable (or zero if you are small enough)
3) gradually open things up while carefully contract tracing and isolating all new cases. Only return to full normal when it is eliminated or easily tracked.

Since every other part of the world is going with this plan the US will be isolated for the foreseeable future. We will be allowed to swing between opening and closing without any ability for long term planning while the global economy restarts without us.

You realize that the whole world is in this together, right? You can’t have a functioning world when a country has an outbreak going. The virus will find its way to you. Especially the USA since we are the top economic engine of the world.

Wearing a mask is draconian? You people are fucked up.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Good luck having other countries open their border with you.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Fine. But those states barely have a any metropolises.//

You mean fine, you caught me lying like my hero in govt., but I'm still not going to admit it. I will now begin the pivot to something else to hide my lie, even if I have to lie more to accomplish that., you have done well grasshopper..


And dont worry, Texas will now be climbing that death per million ladder(apparently from the bottom by your account), and will hit the halfway point in the next month or two. So get your misdirect talking points ready for that one, be here before you know it..

Don’t worry. I’m not worried at all.

Who cares? It will happen eventually. Whine about it all you want. At some point when your economy sucks, you’ll be begging to open the borders.

I doubt it. Tourism represents only 2% of Canada’s GDP and I’m sure Canadians will be happy for US visitors to stay away if they’re going to continue to act like idiots with respect to COVID-19.

Other countries are showing how this pandemic can be handled effectively. We just choose not to want to learn and change our behavior.

Everyone I have talked to here wants the border to stay closed until you twits get your act together.

Or until your herd is fully culled.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The bigger danger is that other countries will think if they can't get their shit together and fight a virus that kills people, why should we trust them with anything.

They would have to pay to defend themselves

From Russia whom your President is enabling.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Bitch please your navy is coastal and you rent your tanks

For Canada maybe tourism is small but there are other things rather than tourism that you need borders open for. But we treat Canadians like we do the state of Maine and New Mexico. They are there but not really. Europe and Asia depend on the US. We are the engine that runs their economies and the inventions. They will come to us eventually and beg us to visit them and do business with them.

Doesn't look like a pop to me.

Daily death 7-day rolling average is flat to declining.


But as JPO says: yet.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Deaths trail cases counts by a few weeks. How’s the Hospitalization rate doing? Is it flat to declining?

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Hospitalizations are up. We'll see where we are in a few weeks.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I heard Russia and China will sell them weapons on the cheap.

Death rate not up: "no pop".

Hospitalizations up: "we'll see".

Got it.

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

It's a little early to declare victory for other developed nations. Time will tell if they actually have it under control.

 
What is the R-nought value in your state?

Interesting analysis and charts here.

According to the link you provided, 1.22. Wisconsin.

Tennessee is right on schedule. Shut it down, get it under control. Start to open things up, jump right back up with cases.

---

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Ohio is right there with you. We weren't even making any progress, just holding steady. So we open it up and shockingly things start going south.

Instead of taking it as a sign to keep doing what we are doing we have taken it as a sign to throw all that out the window.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Well according to the Atlantic, we were supposed to be seeing human sacrifice in Georgia.

What is "pop"? Your home state, NJ, popped, with 170 deaths per 100k. Georgia is at 26 per 100k. (About 26 per 100k die per year of diabetes in the US, 52 by accidents, and 200 per year of heart disease.)

Hospitalization rate increase in Georgia from low 800s in early June to almost 1360 is concerning. There were 1500 hospitalizations on May 1. So they are still below their peak, and the peak didn't produce much of a pop in deaths by tri state standards.

About 450 additional people hospitalized in Georgia since early June is a concern, but that is not even half the number of deaths in, say, Middlesex County, Jersey.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Yes and no, the initial Cuomo response resulted in probably thousands of oldster deaths that DeSantis avoided in FL. Different scenario now based on re-openings and it is infections among the younger set that have little to no self discipline. Now the look is to how many deaths result in this younger population, but for now deaths are steady despite the infection spike.

edit to show that deaths are steady:

https://www.wesh.com/...-the-curve/32998369#

I'm hopeful that this is the case.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I see the circumstances as different as well but struggle with discussing DeSantis' response as anything other than nonexistent. Cuomo took a wildfire and brought it under control. During that time, rather than learning from the experiences of Cuomo and other embattled governors, DeSantis took a victory lap trash talking the media. There was no reason to allow this situation to spiral out of control over the last few months in Florida. The fact that the death rate is steady is a function of the virus and it's impact on certain groups, not of the control that DeSantis has exerted on it.

While not a hotspot for travel like Florida or NY, I look at Mike Dewine in Ohio, who has done a heckuva job so far on this stuff. The numbers in Ohio are still very low.

Mandatory mask laws forbidden by Kemp.

SMDH.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...orgia-mask-mandates/

Instead he "strongly encourages" masks. That is absolutely pointless.

The "it's a hoax" crowd will still not wear them.

Best of luck. I suggest that you move.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Nothing to see here, move along!

He just doesn't want to get shown up by Florida and Texas.

Here's the difference our Governor (Texas) realized he was wrong on not allowing cities to mandate masks and then a few weeks later, he put his own mask mandate in place.

It was too late- as the damage was done by reopening early- and too little- not having a mask mandate in place prior to reopening could have helped- but he did do a course correction.

So- this far in the grading period- he get's a D in managing the pandemic and not a F like the governors of FL and GA.

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Suffer Well.

Yeah, but technically is that a “pop”? I mean, just cause it higher than ever and shows absolutely no signs of slowing down, can we really consider that a “pop” versus slow gradual decline into desperation?

You do realize this was started back in early May?

Yes it looks like it has finally "pop" but took a while. I fell for the other side of exponential growth. It takes a while to get going.

---

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

I don't live in Georgia. But I'm next door in Alabama and have spent much time in Florida lately.

I follow the numbers fairly closely. Oddly, while Alabama and Florida have seen a mild (so far) increase in daily deaths, Georgia still has not. Alabama and Florida have seen death rates double their prior highs (but not approaching NY, NJ, Conn levels). Georgia death rate still flat and lower than before.

Do you think the curve for Georgia, Alabama, or Florida will spike up like the earlier NY curve?

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

It really shouldn’t. Much has been learned in the past 6 months. It will spike but not like NY.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The sad thing is you can't believe a single number that comes from a state run by a Trump toady. Now with Trump demanding Hospitals send the numbers to the WH it will be even worse.

Which states are run by Trump? I don't see any governors named Trump.

So Trump can't even purge the Whitehouse of folks who are whistleblowers, yet you believe state governments are completely empty of people who might document the real numbers and then reveal the fraud to the NY Times or Atlanta Constitution Journal? That would be a big story and easy to document. Or is that the October surprise that tin foil hatters are hoping for?

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Sarcasm is difficult.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The operative word would be toady i.e. a Trump sycophant rather than Trump himself.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

2 things are keeping it from spiking up sharply, so far:

1) avg age of people infected is lower as more younger people are getting it and the nursing home, etc hotspots that we saw early in the NE are better aware/prepared than before; however, now that a greater share of the total population has been 'seeded,' how long will it stay that way before the kids end up infecting their parents & grandparents? A lot of folks who are fairly dismissive will just say things like "the elderly and high-risk will need to be extra careful but the majority shouldn't have to worry about taking all these added precautions." How long can they maintain those bubbles, and what other health effects will that trigger (like delaying other surgeries & so on) that maybe aren't caused by Cv, but will become more lethal because of Cv-related rationing of medical care?

2) we've managed to avoid overloading local ICU capacity; again, so far... But, it doesn't take a huge spike to get there, just a steady increase, including the cumulative strain on staffing (especially if/when some of them get infected too), and then you hit an inflection point where the mortality will increase sharply again because there won't be enough medical care to meet the increased demand. That's when they start to call in the reefer trucks because the bodies are piling up too fast (already starting to get there in parts of TX now). Some people won't survive who would have if they just didn't all get it at the same time.

Taken together, I see the current trend as simply resulting in a broader, more delayed 'pop' ~ maybe it doesn't look sharp enough on a graph to call it a 'spike' but that's getting to be just semantics. Call it a 'mound' or whatever, the death count may well lag more than it did in April, but it will begin to track up more closely again than it is right now.

This isn't even considering the likely compounding effects of kids going back to skool and more people returning to indoor activities in the fall/winter (although that part is less of a factor in the sun belt, but some of that seasonal behavior is still driven more broadly in response to colder regions too).

Kemp has now filed a lawsuit againt Atlanta, because the mayor has declared masks mandatory.

Florida have seen a mild (so far) increase in daily deaths,//

Really? you take a look at the graph of daily deaths and tell me that it points to a mild rise, then tell me how that graph differs from every other graph ever drawn. They had roughly between 25 to 50 deaths for a long time, and now in the last week they have 4 days that hit over 125, with today hitting a new record of 156. Does that seem a mild increase to you? To me it looks like the beginning of what started about a month ago in daily new cases, you know, the lagging indicator. Which unfortunately means that we should expect it to keep going up, since the daily cases just set some new records recently. But I suppose those were also mild increases from before too, so nothing to see??


https://www.worldometers.info/...navirus/usa/florida/

Listening to the BBC news earlier, they were discussing how in many countries in Asia - e.g. Japan, Singapore etc., they are completely flummoxed by the mask controversy in the US. They simply don’t get it. This is why Singapore has 26 deaths only (total, not per day), a little over 100 people in hospitals and none in ICUs.

Americans are showing their true colors through this pandemic, and it’s not a good look.

First, 156 was not a number when I posted. Second, you did not quote me fully, I said that Florida was running at 2x their earlier rate. That is true, high in April was 83.

So I said they were double yet I called it "mild (so far)." New York, with less people, and less elderly, in April had a stretch of days with over 900 deaths a day, peaking over 1000. So yeah, less than 200 deaths a day is mild so far to my way of thinking.

I'm concerned. I don't agree that there is nothing to see.

But I don't know where it will go. Do you? Compared to New York's 1000 death per day peak, what do you say will be the peak in Florida?

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

The simple and only answer is more than it needed to be. I’m just north of there in GA and my parents are in FL. I’m not sure which government is more inept at this point. It’s hotly contested.

I would hope FL's would be lower, we have learned things in the last 4 months that hopefully makes things better.

FL has tripled the 7 day moving average since mid-June. The case count is still shooting up. Their governor seems adamant that he will not admit he has made any mistakes. I expect them to get worse, at least for the near term.

I would say you are using the wrong standard to compare to. You are using the worst case scenario as your standard. NYC went about as badly as you could get in a US city. If that is the bar we are staying under then we are going to have a lot of dead people.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

https://www.bloomberg.com/...tter_impression=true

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“Read the transcript.”

Compared to New York's 1000 death per day peak, what do you say will be the peak in Florida? //

Why not just compare it to a present state in the union, how about NY??


My prediction, more than mild..

I find these morbid questions interesting. Florida now has over 15X the number of new cases per day compared to their low points around 6 weeks ago. If that translates to death rates, then they should hit 500-600 deaths per day around mid-August. No reason to believe that will be the peak though given the new case counts are still growing.

I think you also have to take into account mass transit. NYC was hit hard due to how heavily the subway is used, on the other hand Florida has no subway. Can you imagine the numbers in Florida if the primary means of transit was the subway? Florida had months to prepare and yet they did nothing, hence the spiking numbers currently. Fortunately the death toll at this point isn't nearly as high.

unfortunately i have to listen to the majority of people I work with who share his views. It's asinine. It only got worse once we announced all customers will be required to wear masks starting next week. It was obviously in response to my letter to corporate and not our competitors beating them to the punch.

Georgia I think has now reached official POP.

Yes, but it’s all the fault of the protests.

Too much testing.

I heard they are putting Covid on the swabs before they test you, and that is why so many positives. And something about a chip in the vaccine..

As if to try to emphasize just how badly he's handling the pandemic response, GA Gov Kemp has pushed harder for residents to wear masks, while continuing to sue cities who have mandated mask wearing in an effort to scrap their mask ordinance.

This is, of course, the same governor who admitted he only discovered possible asymptomatic spreading of COVID in early April, even though health officials warned of this as early as January.

And he even got bad marks from Trump for re-opening too early.

A trifecta of stupidity.

The new going around in South Carolina. "Had a friend that went to get tested, waited in line for 6 hours and they shut testing down. He got home and they called and said his test was positive. They are calling everybody that fills out the paper work positive." This is what we are up against on social media in the South. Mean while our Governor is pushing in person school. SMH

yeah, starting to hit much closer to home. Two of my wife's employees are now in the hospital. One was just put on a vent yesterday. Black, morbidly obese, and previous heart condition. Not what you want to hear. Three parents of my nephew's friends are now positive. Good thing he was spending the night over at two of them while my parents where in town baby-sitting him and his sister.

On a side note, our MAGA and Make Liberals Cry Again tshirt/hat/sock wearing customer came in yesterday for the first time since we instituted a mandatory mask policy. Not shocked at all he had a Trump/Pence 2020 mask. And here all I've been told is the left was politicizing mask wearing. I guess this is the everyone does it defense.

Hey, take small victories when you get them. I'd give him a pat on the back.

Edit: Sorry, pat on the back isn't properly distanced. I meant give him a bro nod from at least 6 feet away.

Yes, I'd agree.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

That same bullshit is going around everywhere, including my part of Texas. Yet- at least here in my town- there seems that no one has come forward with documentation of getting a positive result and not having a test for local officials to investigate.

I don't know why people are so gullible or quick to jump on conspiracy theories. But Epstein didn't kill himself.

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Suffer Well.

My assistant manager told me the other day that the CDC admitted over half of the death count was from people dying from other causes, but having tested positive from COVID at one time. I asked him what he meant. He said if someone tested positive back in April and died in a motorcycle accident in June it was counted as a COVID death. Confirmed by the CDC.. I had to ask him if he was serious. You can't educate that kind of stupid.

If it's on the internet, it must be true.

It saddens me when I see college classmates referencing info from wingnuts websites and implying it's fact.

Is he now your former assistant manager?

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TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

He's been demoted once from this position and off to a good start to be demoted again after being promoted a couple of months ago. He's worked for this company for 17 years and is one of those guys who thinks his shit doesn't stink but hasn't seen enough of the world to know the difference. Either way, he's a nice enough guy and I'm just a part time chump.

The motorcycle accident covid death is a widely reported piece of truth that folks like him hold on to prove that the whole system is flawed. If they can find one flaw, it lets them cling to their conspiracy theory.

You are right you can't educate them. But they can learn when they are willing.

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Suffer Well.

Well, nearly three weeks later, I wonder if it is fair to say Georgia popped. Deaths have gone up from less than twenty per day to about 50 per day. However, it does not look like it is increasing in the manner of NY and other hard hit places in March/April.

The peak of the curve in New York was near 1000 deaths per day, or about 50 per million per day. For over two weeks the death rate was over 750 per day, or about 40 per million per day. Normal death rate in USA (CDC 2019 numbers) is 23.7 per million per day. Thus New York covid death rate during covid spike was substantially higher than normal death rate.

However, at 50 covid deaths per day, Georgia is at rate of 4.7 covid deaths per day per million -- much less than normal daily death rate of 23.7.

Maybe a "POP" is in the eyes of the beholder, but I'd call Georgia's increase a very unfortunate bump, which I hope does not become a POP.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

You should go into politics. "2020 had some unfortunate bumps..."

Ontario has had 7 straight days of fewer than 100 new cases.

8 Covid deaths in the past 7 days. 8 too many.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/..._pandemic_in_Ontario

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Meanwhile, in an average week about 130 people in Ontario die from accidents and suicide. 130 people too many. Preventable.

Cancer, heart disease, stroke deaths are an order of magnitude higher.

I'm just saying death happens. Yet, until we get older, deaths of acquaintances are not an everyday event and people don't worry about dying day to day.

In Georgia, a potential 25% increase in deaths does nothing to change this. I say potential 25% increase because possibly many of the people dying from covid may have died anyway from underlying causes.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Or more probably, you are just making up complete and utter horseshit.

From June 20th - July 20th Georgia had 534 deaths - 17.8/day
From July 21 - today they have had 1023 deaths - 51.15/day

An extra 667 people have died in the last 20 days alone. In Georgia. But according to you, somehow, 29 or 30 of those 51 each and every day would have died form something else. Because you went to the University of Facebook for your medical degree.

Just stop.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Show me one thing I stated that is not correct. I have been doing some calculations based on reported numbers and could have made an error.

Per CDC 2019 numbers, in USA about 23.7 people die per day per million population. So for Georgia, that would be about 250 people per day. So in the last 20 days, even without covid, 5000 people would have died over the last 20 days.

With heart disease and diabetes leading causes of death and also risk factors for covid death, are you saying none of those 667 people who died in last 20 days would have died from heart disease or diabetes sometime this year?

Read this study from CDC and tell me if I'm correct reading that of about 10.6K decedents studied over 20% were over the age of 85 and of those 58% had cardiovascular disease. What is the life expectancy of someone over 85 with cardiovascular disease?


I'm not sure what you are saying and I don't think I said any such thing. I have no idea of what the exact number might be. Only time will tell (to some extent).

I was off in saying that 50 covid deaths per day is 25% of normal daily death rate of 250 in Georgia. 50/250 = .2

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

So, you agree that these people died because of COVID-19. What is it that you are arguing, then?

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"Go yell at an M&M"

Stop just making shit up. That is all you are doing. I have no idea what your motivation is and I don't care but you have been at it for a while. I assume it makes you feel better to think that COVID is being polite and only killing people already scheduled to die. That isn't how it works. That isn't how any of this works.

You have no idea what you are talking about. So you just make shit up. Stop.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

I stated my interest regarding the subject of this thread in my first post yesterday.

Anyone who wants to do critical thinking can draw their own conclusions regarding the facts and figures I presented.

If any of the numbers I presented appear in error to you, please let me know and I'll check them.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

You're being cute here, though. In areas hard-hit by COVID, it was the leading cause of death, full-stop. E.g. here, where COVID deaths absolutely dominated deaths in NYC between March 11 - May 2. It's on track to the 3rd highest cause of death in the U.S. even though most areas haven't been hit anywhere near as hard as NYC. How you can be so casually dismissive as saying "death happens, so what" is beyond me.

So takeway here is if we don't do anything to try and slow it down, it's unbelievably fucking bad. As opposed to just really bad if we do try to slow it down.

Tough to say. Per SS actuarial tables, the life expectancy of people who make it to 85 is about 6-7 years. The prevalence of cardiovascular disease in people aged 80 or older is over 80%.

So it's entirely plausible that, on average, we're talking about whole years of life.

We've gotten really good at managing cardiovascular disease. Dick Cheney has had it for like 40 years. It doesn't mean you're about to die. Neither does being 85..

You say I'm cute and to prove it offer up numbers that I posted -- in more detail -- in my first post yesterday, no. 134.

I agree with your takeaways.

Yet I don't think there is any harm with a comparative analysis of numbers in Georgia with those during the horrible spike in NY.


Sympathy and respect are due to those who have suffered loss of loved ones. My recitation of covid death statistics would be inappropriate in a thread discussing the death of loved ones.

I considered this thread more a more public policy debate, i.e, what should Georgia be doing. Such a debate requires consideration of the relative magnitude of the current situation in Georgia. Public policy decisions always have a cost benefit analysis, including potential of causing deaths.


We can debate whether Georgia or Texas, Florida, or California should be imposing further restrictions at this point.

I lost my 85 y/o mother and my 84 y/o father this year. It is difficult so I'm not unsympathetic toward those in their 80s. Yet my parents both appreciated that they lived long good lives and were coming near their end.

Meanwhile, I coach inner city Alabama kids who attend, or will attend (maybe), a city high school were only 50% graduate. All the outlying suburban schools are starting on time with optional remote learning. All those kids will graduate high school and most go to college.

In contrast, city schools will be starting first 9 weeks remotely. Sad LOL for as a practical matter there will be no school for most kids for nine weeks. Poor kids will suffer more and have even less chances in life.

Tough policy choices.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Etowah HS officially POPPED. This would be hilarious if it were a less serious subject. Florida, I'll see your bet and raise you a bazillion. This will magically disappear after August 31st. Wink, wink.

Obviously too much testing.

Good news in that the bump in covid deaths in Georgia -- and Florida, California, and Texas -- seems to have been declining in last few weeks.

Also good news is that the death rate at its peak in those states was far, far lower -- about an order of magnitude -- than the rate in NJ and NY when covid hit hard there.

Personally I think the Southern bump is due to hot weather and people staying inside (in unsafe manner, too many in too small space). That is cause for a few cases with which I'm personally familiar anyway.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Good news in that the bump in covid deaths in Georgia -- and Florida, California, and Texas -- seems to have been declining in last few weeks. //

Yes good news indeed. At least in CA we have been moving down the death per million scale, now at about 25th, in the middle. The others you mentioned are moving the other direction in that metric, but the states popping now may stop their slides if they keep up the nonsense..

And I dont think we can use NY or NJ as examples of what could be, that was another time and place, with all things that could go wrong, actually do so. But they did give us the formula for getting out of not just a steep slide, but the minor ones just about every state has or is experiencing since the beginning of this.

I don't know if I'd call this deaths trending down, although cases seem to be, so hopefully deaths will follow. Agree with your second point and I can see the logic in the last. My observation is the elderly don't tend to get out much in this heat, with good reason, and they still make up the majority of recent deaths.

I think states like FL and TX are going to see COVID cases coming and going in an irregular wave pattern. I think both states are at or near the bottom of a trough and events (school openings, Labor Day shenanigans, complacency as cases fall) have been set in place for another crest. So we should start seeing cases rise again in the coming weeks. Hopefully not like this summer but the rise is inevitable. Then comes the lagging data for hospitalizations and deaths. The X factor is how the fall and winter plays out as people move more indoors and we get both COVID and flu causing havoc.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Looking at the death per million rankings for a moment I thought I made an error claiming the Georgia, Florida, Texas, and California death rates at peak were on order of magnitude less that NY/NJ, because currently, those states are about 1/5 to 1/3 of total deaths per million of NY/NJ (i.e. in total deaths there is less than order of magnitude difference). However, those states have been having deaths fairly steadily since March while NY/NJ peaked with much higher daily death rates but NY/NJ have now gone down to nearly zero.

Very different shape curves. You could even say that Ga, Fl, Tx, and California flattened the curve, but the curve continues whereas NY/NJ didn't flatten but seem done (hopefully). Daily death curves in NY/NJ look similar to UK, France, and Italy where deaths have for some time approached zero (or single digits).

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I think schools starting up again will be a very interesting experiment. It is possible that we might see a bump in cases and not much of one in fatalities. The 2nd wave has a lower fatality rate than the first and it is possible that a third wave will have a lower rate than the second due to lower risk members of the population being more prone to exposure. Or maybe the fatality rate will remain about the same as the 2nd wave but the case numbers will go up as people are just giving up on precautions.

I stand corrected. Looking at 7-day average now, Georgia still may be flat -- though Fl, Tx, Ca have clear decline in daily deaths.


Interesting and sad. Elderly should be locked down if they want to avoid this.

Yet when I'm 85, I might well take the risk of the annual summer visit from the grandkids, reasoning that I might not be alive if a wait another year. I also know some people in their 70s who still have to work and can't avoid some risk.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Do you also lock down the health care workers associated with the elderly? How about the people who clean their facilities (assuming nursing homes or assisted living residences), or prepare their meals, or provide whatever therapies they need?

Just wondering about the mechanics of such a suggestion.

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"Go yell at an M&M"

I must have heard a dozen times this summer, "The Germans couldn't kill me in WWII, I'm going to live my life.....". It was usually followed by a comment about who knows what next year might hold.

I did try to keep mom and dad as distanced as possible but she is a hard headed person.

In general the mechanics are (a) for self-sufficient elderly to reduce contact with strangers and with family who may have been exposed, and (b) implement procedures to reduce risk for those in institutions.

My observation, especially when I was in Florida a couple months ago, was that many elderly were carrying on as if almost normal. Some may have decided, for instance, to accept the risk of grocery shopping without a mask, others may have no relatives and can't afford the extra cost of delivery services.

You can research what procedures that elder care facilities have implemented.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

As much as you can, yes. I work in a healthcare field that services the elderly. We would be in ALFs and SNFs everyday, but that is almost nonexistent currently. Same goes for a lot of their other vendors.
They also had to segregate staff and quite sharing staff across different locations. Just doing a lot of the basics(PPE, hand washing, etc) that was not consistent early on in the pandemic.

Not sure how I missed this photo on this forum - it was all over social media, reddit, and TMZ the day after it was taken.

This is my son's school. EHS shut down 7 days after starting in person classes. They go back in person on Thurday in hybrid mode. A-L on Monday/Thursday, M-Z on Tuesday/Friday. Will be interesting to watch the next few weeks.

And in the spring the refrain was "I think it will disappear during the summer due to the heat, like the flu does". Strange how looking backwards is so different than looking forwards.

Yes. Yet in a way it did -- in Northern climates where people can be outside more in the summer.

I think outdoor activities need to be promoted more. People should be encouraged to go to the beach and not shamed.

Expecting college students to isolate and not party is foolish. So instead they should be encouraged to party outside by allowing outdoor alcohol consumption.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev