monty wrote:
Good news in that the bump in covid deaths in Georgia -- and Florida, California, and Texas -- seems to have been declining in last few weeks. // Yes good news indeed. At least in CA we have been moving down the death per million scale, now at about 25th, in the middle. The others you mentioned are moving the other direction in that metric, but the states popping now may stop their slides if they keep up the nonsense..
And I dont think we can use NY or NJ as examples of what could be, that was another time and place, with all things that could go wrong, actually do so. But they did give us the formula for getting out of not just a steep slide, but the minor ones just about every state has or is experiencing since the beginning of this. Looking at the death per million rankings for a moment I thought I made an error claiming the Georgia, Florida, Texas, and California death rates at peak were on order of magnitude less that NY/NJ, because currently, those states are about 1/5 to 1/3 of total deaths per million of NY/NJ (i.e. in total deaths there is less than order of magnitude difference). However, those states have been having deaths fairly steadily since March while NY/NJ peaked with much higher daily death rates but NY/NJ have now gone down to nearly zero.
Very different shape curves. You could even say that Ga, Fl, Tx, and California flattened the curve, but the curve continues whereas NY/NJ didn't flatten but seem done (hopefully). Daily death curves in NY/NJ look similar to UK, France, and Italy where deaths have for some time approached zero (or single digits).
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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev