It really shouldn’t. Much has been learned in the past 6 months. It will spike but not like NY.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The sad thing is you can't believe a single number that comes from a state run by a Trump toady. Now with Trump demanding Hospitals send the numbers to the WH it will be even worse.

Which states are run by Trump? I don't see any governors named Trump.

So Trump can't even purge the Whitehouse of folks who are whistleblowers, yet you believe state governments are completely empty of people who might document the real numbers and then reveal the fraud to the NY Times or Atlanta Constitution Journal? That would be a big story and easy to document. Or is that the October surprise that tin foil hatters are hoping for?

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Sarcasm is difficult.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The operative word would be toady i.e. a Trump sycophant rather than Trump himself.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

2 things are keeping it from spiking up sharply, so far:

1) avg age of people infected is lower as more younger people are getting it and the nursing home, etc hotspots that we saw early in the NE are better aware/prepared than before; however, now that a greater share of the total population has been 'seeded,' how long will it stay that way before the kids end up infecting their parents & grandparents? A lot of folks who are fairly dismissive will just say things like "the elderly and high-risk will need to be extra careful but the majority shouldn't have to worry about taking all these added precautions." How long can they maintain those bubbles, and what other health effects will that trigger (like delaying other surgeries & so on) that maybe aren't caused by Cv, but will become more lethal because of Cv-related rationing of medical care?

2) we've managed to avoid overloading local ICU capacity; again, so far... But, it doesn't take a huge spike to get there, just a steady increase, including the cumulative strain on staffing (especially if/when some of them get infected too), and then you hit an inflection point where the mortality will increase sharply again because there won't be enough medical care to meet the increased demand. That's when they start to call in the reefer trucks because the bodies are piling up too fast (already starting to get there in parts of TX now). Some people won't survive who would have if they just didn't all get it at the same time.

Taken together, I see the current trend as simply resulting in a broader, more delayed 'pop' ~ maybe it doesn't look sharp enough on a graph to call it a 'spike' but that's getting to be just semantics. Call it a 'mound' or whatever, the death count may well lag more than it did in April, but it will begin to track up more closely again than it is right now.

This isn't even considering the likely compounding effects of kids going back to skool and more people returning to indoor activities in the fall/winter (although that part is less of a factor in the sun belt, but some of that seasonal behavior is still driven more broadly in response to colder regions too).

Kemp has now filed a lawsuit againt Atlanta, because the mayor has declared masks mandatory.

Florida have seen a mild (so far) increase in daily deaths,//

Really? you take a look at the graph of daily deaths and tell me that it points to a mild rise, then tell me how that graph differs from every other graph ever drawn. They had roughly between 25 to 50 deaths for a long time, and now in the last week they have 4 days that hit over 125, with today hitting a new record of 156. Does that seem a mild increase to you? To me it looks like the beginning of what started about a month ago in daily new cases, you know, the lagging indicator. Which unfortunately means that we should expect it to keep going up, since the daily cases just set some new records recently. But I suppose those were also mild increases from before too, so nothing to see??


https://www.worldometers.info/...navirus/usa/florida/

Listening to the BBC news earlier, they were discussing how in many countries in Asia - e.g. Japan, Singapore etc., they are completely flummoxed by the mask controversy in the US. They simply don’t get it. This is why Singapore has 26 deaths only (total, not per day), a little over 100 people in hospitals and none in ICUs.

Americans are showing their true colors through this pandemic, and it’s not a good look.

First, 156 was not a number when I posted. Second, you did not quote me fully, I said that Florida was running at 2x their earlier rate. That is true, high in April was 83.

So I said they were double yet I called it "mild (so far)." New York, with less people, and less elderly, in April had a stretch of days with over 900 deaths a day, peaking over 1000. So yeah, less than 200 deaths a day is mild so far to my way of thinking.

I'm concerned. I don't agree that there is nothing to see.

But I don't know where it will go. Do you? Compared to New York's 1000 death per day peak, what do you say will be the peak in Florida?

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

The simple and only answer is more than it needed to be. I’m just north of there in GA and my parents are in FL. I’m not sure which government is more inept at this point. It’s hotly contested.

I would hope FL's would be lower, we have learned things in the last 4 months that hopefully makes things better.

FL has tripled the 7 day moving average since mid-June. The case count is still shooting up. Their governor seems adamant that he will not admit he has made any mistakes. I expect them to get worse, at least for the near term.

I would say you are using the wrong standard to compare to. You are using the worst case scenario as your standard. NYC went about as badly as you could get in a US city. If that is the bar we are staying under then we are going to have a lot of dead people.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

https://www.bloomberg.com/...tter_impression=true

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“Read the transcript.”

Compared to New York's 1000 death per day peak, what do you say will be the peak in Florida? //

Why not just compare it to a present state in the union, how about NY??


My prediction, more than mild..

I find these morbid questions interesting. Florida now has over 15X the number of new cases per day compared to their low points around 6 weeks ago. If that translates to death rates, then they should hit 500-600 deaths per day around mid-August. No reason to believe that will be the peak though given the new case counts are still growing.

I think you also have to take into account mass transit. NYC was hit hard due to how heavily the subway is used, on the other hand Florida has no subway. Can you imagine the numbers in Florida if the primary means of transit was the subway? Florida had months to prepare and yet they did nothing, hence the spiking numbers currently. Fortunately the death toll at this point isn't nearly as high.

unfortunately i have to listen to the majority of people I work with who share his views. It's asinine. It only got worse once we announced all customers will be required to wear masks starting next week. It was obviously in response to my letter to corporate and not our competitors beating them to the punch.

Georgia I think has now reached official POP.

Yes, but it’s all the fault of the protests.

Too much testing.

I heard they are putting Covid on the swabs before they test you, and that is why so many positives. And something about a chip in the vaccine..

As if to try to emphasize just how badly he's handling the pandemic response, GA Gov Kemp has pushed harder for residents to wear masks, while continuing to sue cities who have mandated mask wearing in an effort to scrap their mask ordinance.

This is, of course, the same governor who admitted he only discovered possible asymptomatic spreading of COVID in early April, even though health officials warned of this as early as January.

And he even got bad marks from Trump for re-opening too early.

A trifecta of stupidity.

The new going around in South Carolina. "Had a friend that went to get tested, waited in line for 6 hours and they shut testing down. He got home and they called and said his test was positive. They are calling everybody that fills out the paper work positive." This is what we are up against on social media in the South. Mean while our Governor is pushing in person school. SMH

yeah, starting to hit much closer to home. Two of my wife's employees are now in the hospital. One was just put on a vent yesterday. Black, morbidly obese, and previous heart condition. Not what you want to hear. Three parents of my nephew's friends are now positive. Good thing he was spending the night over at two of them while my parents where in town baby-sitting him and his sister.

On a side note, our MAGA and Make Liberals Cry Again tshirt/hat/sock wearing customer came in yesterday for the first time since we instituted a mandatory mask policy. Not shocked at all he had a Trump/Pence 2020 mask. And here all I've been told is the left was politicizing mask wearing. I guess this is the everyone does it defense.