Not her debut. This will be her second. She ran New York in 2016.

True but for all intents and purposes it’s her debut.

so, marathon gurus, how does this fit in with her overall plans? and what kind of course is chicago? will it suit her (and/or her competition)?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

How do you figure? Chicago isn’t more prestigious than New York. It’s not her Boston debut.

Her debut as a runner and not a triathlete! (pinkish)

So what's the guess on times? Her recent races don't seem to be good indicators given she has been running long miles around those events. Assuming it isn't a hot day, anyone thinks she can do sub 2:25?

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I didn’t say it was. She ran New York for fun with very little training. This is her first marathon since retiring from triathlon and committing to train as a marathoner with the goal of making the Olympics.

Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her. Chicago is where Gwen's olympic ambitions are going to get crushed.

Dibaba - 2:18:31
Kosgei - 2:20:22
Hasay - 2:20:57
Perez - 2:24:44
Kipketer - 2:28:05
Weighman - 2:28:45

It’s a fast course (unless you get a freak heat wave like 2007). The start list is loaded and it’ll be a good preview for the Olympic trials competition wise as two favorites for the Olympic team - Amy Cragg and Jordan Hasay - are racing as well.

I’m really looking forward to the men’s race. Rupp vs Farah. Plus 7 other international men who’ve got PR’s under 2:07. And Yuki Kawauchi, though unless there is some wacky weather he’ll be a non factor.

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Matt

There are 7 women who’ve have gone under 2:23 and 4 under 2:21. It’ll be interesting strategy wise to see how fast they go out and who tried to hang on.

Last year the lead group (which included Hasay and Brigid Kosgei who are both running this year) went out in 1:09:10. If Gwen wants to win gold then she’ll have to go with them. But that could lead to a big blowup or DNF. Or she could surprise everyone and hand on to run a 2:20. We’ll see. Should be fun to watch

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Matt

I think her half marathon PR is something like 71 flat or just under. I think going out in a 69 would be a stretch. I agree though it will be fun to watch.

What is the dynamic between the two Nike teams - BTC and Oregon Project? Are they treated differently by Nike (treatment, pay)? Is one thought of as more elite than the other? I don't see any interaction as far as training social media, etc.

I don’t think Nike treats them differently. But they are definitely distinct groups for sure. There has been some animosity in the past between them.

I’d say NOP is a bit more elitist. It’s a smaller group, pretty much only top level guys and gals. BTC has their elite sqaud but also has some ‘sub-elite’ runners as well as some youth and masters squads. So from top to bottom it’s a bit bigger. Their (non top level) runners would show up Stumptown cross country series. Tge only time I saw a NOP athlete at a local (Portland) race was when Rupp ran the Holiday Half in 2015 to qualify for the marathon Olympic Trials

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Matt

Also - wasn't she pregnant when she ran NY?

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"It's good enough for who it's for" - Grandpa Wayne

2:25:47

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Eh, if she was it would have maybe overlapped by a couple days. I don't think anything that would have impacted performance from a physical standpoint.

I wouldn't call that elitest, I'd call that coach a gaping asshole. Ever heard of Sportsmanship?

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

2;25;33

And her 10k time would suggest that she could run a 1;09+ 1/2 marathon, so probably not going out with the leaders if they are near that pace. I think she will/could go out in about 1;12 flat and run a great race, all supposing she is actually rested and pointing for a good time in this race. There should be a group running that pace, so she should be able to sit in and run her pace, until it is time to go full gas, or struggle in. Seems like that is how most marathons finish for folks that race them..

ANd I would hope her coach has that in mind, fine to have run through her other races, but this is the one she is pointing for, so don't give her a bad taste in her mouth. In fact, she needs to get that bad taste from her one and only marathon, running pregnant and entering brand new territory in racing...

2:24:53

2:26:03

2:29:30. Hopefully faster, but I think that's the slowest time she can run and still feel positive about things. 2:30+ = bad day, huge hit to confidence.

Of course, guessing female performance is a whole lot more complex than men's performance. None of the hormonal shifts of menstruation, etc. Hopefully it works out!

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

2:27:23

---

Mike Plumb, TriPower MultiSports
Professional Running, Cycling and Multisport Coaching, F.I.S.T. Certified
http://www.tripower.org

you just outbid me by 10 seconds

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

you just outbid me by 10 seconds //

Actually it is 14 seconds, and have you never played the price is right???

No expert, but I’ll take the under.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

2.35.50

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http://www.goalicego.co.uk

You may very well be right about her not breaking 2:30 but that doesn't mean her Olympic dreams are over. She's got until Feb. 2020 to get ready and this is only her first season of high mileage. The real test will be how she's running a year from now, not how she's running this fall.

I'm going to say 2:29:45, barely squeaks under 2.5, though I'd love to see her go faster. Quite possible she could also be a bit over 2:30. Don't see her doing the ~2:25 some are predicting, don't think she's been running high mileage long enough, although I'd love to be proven wrong. Still hoping she makes the US Olympic team but realistically she's a long shot.

On a cool day, I vote 2:24:30 but outside the top 5

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her.


These BIG World Majors Marathons are all set up with pacers for the front group. If you are NOT able to make that front group, then you are often running on your own, unless, the race organizers set up secondary pacers to pace these sorts of groups - this does happen, but it's rarer. Don't know if this will be the case at Chicago

This is where Gwen may find herself, based on performances to date, if she's running reasonably, and within her means, for a first really serious crack at the marathon. As for times - I would agree with others who have said around or just under 2:30. Chicago is a flat and fast course. I'd love to be proven wrong - just being realistic based on performances going in.

She's got a steep and quick learning curve to work with as she'll really only have this one marathon this fall (Chicago), then maybe one other one next year sometime (Spring, realistically), and then the Olympic Games Marathon Trials (winter 2020).

As for the Olympic Marathon aspirations, Gwen jumped in, just as the U.S. women's marathon rankings, probably doubled in depth of that top-10 or so women in a very short period of time, who all have a shot at those three coveted spots. Of course, it will all come down to one race at the U.S. Olympic Trials on Feb 29, 2020 - https://www.teamusa.org/...Team-Trials-Marathon

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I'm with you. This will only be her second marathon, and her first with a decent amount of mileage under her belt. For her sake, I'd love to see her go under 2:30, under 2:25 would be awesome and would boost her confidence a lot. Realistically..I'd probably go with 2:31:05.

Spoken like a true misogynist.

2:29:36

How so? Do you disagree that a woman's performance on a single day has more variables for success than a man's? I find female physiology and effects on endurance performance isn't reported or acknowledged nearly enough.

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

2:27.13

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Let food be thy medicine...

She went 1:11 in a half and earlier 15:15 in a 5K.

An experienced marathoner who is built for the marathon should take those results to a couple minutes under 2:30, I'd think.

She is clearly not the former, and maybe not the latter. Optimistically, because I think it would be cool for her to do well, I'd say 2:30. Olympic gold in 2020 seems...unlikely. (It would be fun to be wrong, but I think just making the team will be really tough.) 2024? That idea seems interesting.

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Michael

2:28:14

2:26:42 if it's decent and mild weather.

She will have a decent amount of sub-elite men to draft off if she goes for 2:29, but I'm guessing she tries to hit half in around 1:13. Hopefully she won't be all alone. I'm guessing 2:26:49

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

a 'strategic' DNF at 17miles...

2:29:46

Because in your maleness you ass u me that menstrual cycle phase has a significant impact on performance, when in fact the evidence that it does is weak at best. In doing so, you denigrate women by painting them as victims of their hormones, and are only one step removed from the days when women were considered too fragile to compete in events such as the marathon.

The Chicago marathon disallowed pace makers in 2015

They have brought back pacers this year, guessing Rupp is going for the AR.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Lets call it.... 2:24:40

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

I'm in for 2:31:18.

Andrew Coggan wrote:

Because in your maleness you ass u me that menstrual cycle phase has a significant impact on performance, when in fact the evidence that it does is weak at best. In doing so, you denigrate women by painting them as victims of their hormones, and are only one step removed from the days when women were considered too fragile to compete in events such as the marathon.

Oxygen Addict just released a podcast dedicated entirely to this topic: http://www.oxygenaddict.com/...tt-z8gjd-zxc8a-effzn

Thanks, will have a listen. Stacey Sims discusses strategies for mitigating symptoms in a number of episodes on the Fitter Radio podcast. And has a book about female physiology and endurance training called Roar

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

Painting of the gender as victims is not my intention. I'll try chose my words differently next time...

Do you mean the published evidence is weak at best? How many woman have you talked to about this? The women I've talked to and listened to on podcasts disagree...

I think discussing a possible physiological scenario for race day time guessing games like this is as relevant as the other variables being discussed like the weather, rabbits, and competition. You also haven't given a guess for Gwen. Play the game with us Andrew

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

2:32:00

1. Sex, not gender.

2. Yes, the published evidence is weak at best.

3. As for talking to women about what influences their performance, that's why research is required, i.e., so that we don't have to rely on subjective opinions and anecdotal reports. That said, I see your women and podcasts and raise you one Leontien van Moorsel.

4. I'm not into playing guessing games, but if I were, menstrual cycle phase is not one of the factors that I would take into consideration (see point 2 above).

2:28.28

Dang it. That's my time (first post). Does that mean we have to split the winnings? :-)

Btw, I'm kind of surprised that there hasn't been a new video on her YouTube channel about this. Talbot must be out of town.

They have brought back pacers this year, guessing Rupp is going for the AR.

So what is it pacers or no pacers - again if it's yes, then they are usually set up to help the front group and front group only. Occasionally, you'll see pacers deployed to help secondary groups. Now Gwen might hold enough sway to ask for one herself, but I'm just speculating here.


Someone else mentioned pacing off sub elite men. Do the elite men and women start together in Chicago? It will depend on this . . but if you have ever stood on the sidelines of one of these big marathons - you see all the elite men come in 2:05 - 2:15, then a flurry of action when the elite women come in then from from 2:25 - 2:30 onward, very few runners, until the masses start coming in around 2:50ish. It's like 20+ minutes of nothing! There really are very few sub elite male runners, running in the 2:25 - 2:35 range. You may see some of the real elite struggling into the finish, but they would be going backwards at this point relative to Gwen's pace, so not much help.

---

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Whoops, I’ll go 2:27.27 😜

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Let food be thy medicine...

There are pacers, but they will likely go out sub 2:20 pace. Iirc male and female start at the same time so she should be able to draft off the sub elite men. I would guess that there will be two groups of men, those shooting for 2:25 and those going for 2:30 (not counting the oly trials hopefuls). Would be great if she could hang with the former.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Deifnitely pacers - https://www.nbcchicago.com/...-Race-485579911.html

Often pacers for the lesser elites as well as those at the front. And some bring their own pacer. Although that's for Berlin and London, not sure about Chicago. A runner I know (former Canadian rep) was asked to go to Berlin to pace Shalene to her PB with another US elite male.

Chicago has a great programme for the sub-elites (sub 2:31 men / sub 3:01 women) with their own tent and priority access to the start line behind the pros. https://www.chicagomarathon.com/...development-program/

An ok number of 2:25-2:30 runners. http://chicago-history.r.mikatiming.de/2016/
2017 - 30
2016 - 17
2015 - 31
2014 - 36

Prob not as many as CIM but CIM doesn't give out many appearance fees and prize money doesn't compare. (More lucrative for US athletes this year with it holding US champs) - https://runsra.org/...ernational-marathon/

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

Definitely not a fan of 'the price is right'

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

2:33:20

I really hope I'm wrong, but logically I don't see her doing well at the marathon.

2:36:58

2:28:31

---

------------------
http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

If I had done “the price is right” I would have said 2:27.14

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Let food be thy medicine...

 but logically I don't see her doing well at the marathon. //

Ok, I just have to ask, what is this logic that says she will not do well at the marathon?? And logic usually implies some sort of fact based application, not feelings or guesses, etc..


I'm thinking logically that someone that has done a 15;15/30high 5k/10k and was the best in the world at the 2 hour plus triathlon distance(winning olympic gold), out running the best triathlon runners in the world, probably might be good at 2 hour plus running races?? I mean logically a woman who runs that fast during the season on tired legs, and who is better at 2 hours than 15 minutes, probably ought to run at least what the tables suggest, or perhaps a little better on the longer stuff?


But hey, I'm no Mr Spock, what logic are you basing your prediction on??

She has the endurance base, that’s for sure, but even she’s stated that running at such high mileage for months on end is new for her. She recognizes that she’s more prone to injuries due to the high mileage on her legs, which is why she’s so keen on PT and doing foot and leg exercises to try and prevent issues from arising. Can she perform at a high level for two hour races? Absolutely, she proved it in triathlon. But she has yet to prove it in the marathon.

Logically...what is your experience as an elite runner or a coach of elite runners? Gwen is an elite athlete. She will be fine.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

13 seconds off my guess? Seriously? What is this Price Is Right? That's rotten tomatoes--it's like bidding $1 higher than me and Drew Carey calls you up on stage after that. Wrong thread, this isn't the "cry like a beeyatch" thread...

Well, some of the predictions here are pretty optimistic, but given she did 2:41 on no specific marathon training and her 5 & 10K times predict sub-2:30, your prediction covers the "really hot day" or "totally blew up" options.

2:21:36

Gwen's 5k and 10k times so far predict about 2:26 but those races were run in the middle of hard training, while breastfeeding, etc. So I'm quite confident that at Chicago, the first serious race in her build, she will outperform those predictions. Of course this is weather-dependent and barring other weirdness..

Hi all
I hope she breaks 2.30, so I bet for 2.29.00, best of lucks for her !!

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

I have nothing to saw about Gwen's marathon...but as a Dayton expat I strongly appreciate your handle name. I might be driving to Indy this weekend just to get my fix...

---

Superfly Coaching
http://www.superflycoaching.com/eric

IL PIRATA VI GUARDA

the much more interesting way of looking at this is how she will fare against her competitors. Chicago can hit or miss weather wise. This race is a success if she is within 2:30-3:00 of Hasay. GW is racing because she is ready to be successful at the marathon. So that is my prediction.

EDIT: (actually nah, that won't happen I'll go hasay + 6:00)

My understandingTalbot is covering WC 70.3 in South Africa this week... that might answer your question.

DNF

I don't think she will finish after she falls off her goal pace around the half way mark

Is it not the case that most elite women would plan their cycles such that they have minimal effect on performance? One can have a woman on continuous hormones such that they cycle one every three months for instance. I would think due to their weight many would be amenorrheic as well.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Gwen Jorgensen actually tweeted about this earlier this year.

My Guess is 2:31 :)

Anyways I am in Portland right now shooting Gwen. What are some questions you guys have for her?

Sorry for no videos the last couple weeks. We had some cooking ones in the que but decided to just hold them and wait until we got more marathon training content. so What do you wanna see?

Yeah, what does she think about your guess compared to the optimists here?

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

What pace is she going to set out at(first 10 miles), or if not pace, who does she plan to try and hang with???

2:31:08

Current forecast for Sunday is high 50's and overcast with ~10 mph northerly winds. Of course, this is still almost a week out but seemingly good conditions save for the wind. Anyone who has done it know how the winds affect the race?

I am still optimistic about her time at sub-2:25. If I have to get exact, I'll say 2:23:46

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

2 hours 38 minutes

I'm glad this thread got back on the front page, how about some links to where we can watch it live?? You guys are the best at finding free viewing, so give us a US centric site or two, and some for our overseas, northern, and southern neighbors who are also interested..

This is from the Chicago marathon website:


[/url]Broadcast information

Tune into NBC 5 Chicago and Telemundo Chicago on race day
NBC 5 Chicago and Telemundo Chicago will provide complete live TV coverage and live streaming of the Bank of America Chicago Marathon on Sunday, October 7. The NBC 5 Chicago and Telemundo live television broadcast will air from 7 – 11 a.m. and the live stream will be available at nbcchicago.com and telemundochicago.com from 7 a.m. – 3 p.m.

Awesome, thanks. Now just hope when I log in at 7am that it is not swamped and running smoothly. They probably budget for a couple 1000 folks for something fringe like this, but the ST and general triathlete tune in for this is going to be Yuuuge!!!

I certainly haven't paid much attention to this race as it was going on in the past.

Guesses:

doug in co 2:21:36 hadukla 2:23:46 Brandes 2:24:40 nc452010 2:24:53 monty 2:25:33 ericMPro 2:25:47 joggernut 2:26:03 FFigawi 2:26:42 oscaro 2:26:49 logella 2:27:13 Mike Plumb 2:27:23 JackStraw13 2:27:27 Alfredo 2:28:14 nickwhite 2:28:28 Lock_N_Load 2:28:31 juanillo 2:29:00 nbrowne1 2:29:30 Rocky M 2:29:36 tttiltheend 2:29:45 mbwallis 2:29:46 Fleck 2:30:00 Experior 2:30:00 talbotcox 2:31:00 HeartRN 2:31:05 Run Jim 2:31:08 Chadwick 2:31:18 Sanuk 2:32:00 narcomoeba 2:33:20 Alice82 2:35:50 Yeti racer 2:36:58 fruit thief 2:38:00 hobbyjogger DNF endoverend DNF

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

2:30

2:28:12

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Ryan Waddington
Professional Triathlete
http://www.ryanwaddington.com
https://www.instagram.com/waddington_r/

Where are you seeing this forecast? Every forecast I have looked at says low 60s at the start to high 60s or low 70s later in the day.

I'd much prefer your forecast, but I haven't seen it.

I use Dark Sky. the specific location I picked was around race start. Haven't yet decided how accurate it is but I figure if it is what BBS uses, it's good enough for me!

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I'll say 2:25:57. It would be a heck of a time for her, and that number also reminds me of a Married with Children episode.

2:27:40

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make a difference. today.

 
10 Fastest American Marathoners on Record-Eligible Course: Women
Runner
Finish Time
Pace/Mile
Marathon
Deena Kastor
2:19:36
5:19.5
London, 2006
Jordan Hasay
2:20:57
5:22.7
Chicago, 2017
Shalane Flanagan
2:21:14
5:23.2
Berlin, 2014
Joan Samuelson
2:21:21
5:23.5
Chicago, 1985
Amy Cragg
2:21:42
5:24.3
Tokyo, 2018
Laura Thweatt
2:25:38
5:33.3
London, 2017
Kara Goucher
2:25:53
5:33.9
New York City, 2008
Desiree Linden
2:25:55
5:33.9
Olympic Marathon Trials, 2012
Sara Hall
2:26:20
5:34.9
Ottawa, 2018
Magdalena Lewy Boulet
2:26:22
5:35.0
Rotterdam, 2010

Any prize for the winner? LOL

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Interview posted yesterday on letsrun.com. "I know that in this marathon I will have to pace myself and not go out at a pace that I cannot sustain." - http://www.letsrun.com/...en-chicago-marathon/

2:27.59

Thanks for the link. Good stuff in that interview.

Nah. Just being able to say "I knew it!" If you were the closest (without going over), I'd buy you a cup of coffee if I ever ran into you.

Delaware Street Nap?

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I think that is pretty close.

2:28:12

2:26:26 - cause it's got lots of marathon-y numbers in there and probably pretty close to what she could run.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

2:26:26.22 - it's a numerical palindrome

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

2:28:33...or 10 minutes off of winner, whichever is lower. Hot day will be slower. Cold day maybe break 2:28.

Bringing this to the top so we can talk about today's race. Go Gwen!

If you have the Olympic Channel, they’re showing the race live.

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Also streaming here: https://www.nbcchicago.com/...tream-494152791.html

It's probably a good thing but I haven't seen Gwen in the lead women's pack the few times they've shown the women. Broadcast said they are currently on 2:20 pace.

At the 5k mark Gwen is in the second pack with the other US runner at 1:12 back from the lead. Estimated finish is 2:31:46 at the moment.

Yeah - would have been stupid to try staying with the leaders and have a real bad 2nd half of the race.

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

What's up with most of the men wearing the same shoes? Are these the vapor fly knit whatever? The pink shoes.

Doesn’t she always negative-split her races, or is she out of it?

See that another triathlete named Jorgensen is running - Lars Jorgensen, who has held the Kona swim course record for 20 years.

Is the tracker working for others?

Wow, and I though coverage of the Tour was bad.

Not sure about whether she neg splits but I don't think anyone has ever thought she would ever be "in it" for this race. It would be suicide for her to try to stay with the Africans. She's where she needs to be for this race, in the second pack.

Seems to be working well for me.

Tracker working “on-and-off”.

At10k Gwen is 2:30 down ... I guess top 10 is still in the picture

get these men mixed up with the Elite women off the road...

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

At the 15k mark Gwen seems to be losing touch with the other Americans and is 12 seconds back.

oh no... bummer.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

At the half way mark it looks like Laura Thweatt has pulled out. Leading the Americans is Sara Crouch at 1:15:10 with Gwen as third American at 1:15:48. In between is Taylor Ward at 1:15:37.

according to the tracker it seems that Gwen is getting dropped and also that there's not another pack behind her to run with, so she'll be running alone for the 2nd half.

Too bad, I was hoping for Gwensanity.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Just saw her on the course between 20 and 25k. She is running with a group of men with 2 other American women a few seconds up front and running alone.

Gwen looks solid and focused, albeit a bit labored.

At 25k she's lost even more time (about 10-12 secs) but she's got a couple of women with her now.

I don't see how this bodes well for her training or her psyche... she's going to fade to a 2:36 which is nowhere near where she wants or needs to be. Wouldn't it have been better to run with the lead pack until she couldn't and then pull the plug?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Definitely not, I think today is mainly about getting her ticket to Atlanta and not losing too much on the back half. She knows that her shape is no where near where it needs to be, but after today she will have a lot more experience and her qualifier done.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

good point. don't get me wrong, I think top-10 is amazing and Gwen is amazing.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Looks like she picked up the pace slightly which is good. I do think it is better for her confidence to do even splits rather than going out in 2:25 pace and blowing up, but I was still expecting a 4-5 min faster time.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

yeah, presumably she could have showed up at a mid-tier race and cleaned house. she chose a fast race with a tough field for a reason!

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I'm not at all concerned with her results, or winning a smaller race... I'm concerned that her marathon potential is much closer to 2:26 than 2:36 which she might run today if she fades. I'm thinking long term.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

tough field? do you really think that sarah crouch is going to be her competition in atlanta (and she can't even run with her)? this is the softest american women's field in chicago in years because of injuries.

15sec/mi fade at 35km... ruh-roh

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

are any non-american women allowed to do marathons?

---

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

6:27/mi for 35-40km... who had mid-2:30s in the prediction thread?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

you might be right

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Alice82, Yeti racer, and fruit thief are still in the running....

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Close! She’ll get there - sub 2.30 would have been incredible in only her second marathon.

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http://www.goalicego.co.uk

Looks like you were the closest. Finish time was 2:36:23. Congrats!

2.36, very good time for a female triathlete.

Wasn't Alice82 closest?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Uh oh. Upon further analysis you may be the winner.

Finish time was 2:36:23 so you were 33 second under.

Yeti predicted a 2:36:58 and was 35 seconds over.

2.36.23...yeti racer and fruit thief guessed better than the others...
Anyway, from km.30 her pace was 4m/km. just blown out...
Still wish her the best...yet to come

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Yep, just corrected it. Very close contest. Looks like many of us were overly optimistic.

Well I’d rather run a 2.36 than win a guessing game but it’s the little victories, haha.

Well dones to all for having a punt. Excellent performance, Yeti ;)

---

http://www.goalicego.co.uk

GJ is as far from a gold medal in the marathon in 2020 as I am.

There is no way to spin this as anything other than a complete disaster. It was clear she wasn’t going with the leaders and had her goal as more like a 2:30, and even that was well beyond her today. As far as American womwen’s marathoning goes, she’s a non-factor with a good PR machine. My (female) training partner is faster than she is.

I mean it makes sense... Gwen pulls out of triathlon, commits to run training, goes all-in on the marathon... and only improves less than five minutes vs her debut at NYC just 9 weeks after rio. NYC being the harder and slower course.

I think we wanted to believe there was a lot more run potential there, but it seems she was pretty well optimized at Rio.

How is this amazing? She ran 2:41 in her debut with minimal training. A 2:36 i would consider pretty concerning after a year with Bowerman. Is it even qualifying time for trials?
I am a fan and i guess i expected a lot more. I assumed she would break 2:30.

Yep

And all the Tri peeps are still going to think that. Is there better than 2:36 potential? I believe so. I think GJ can challenge sub 2:30 but Olympic gold never. As far as the current state of US marathoning I would not put any money on her making the team.

Yep. I guess i bought in to the hype. And hope. I wish her luck but i wonder if she has plan B?

Kudos to Jorgensen for chasing a new dream. Time for a nice vacation, maybe in Kona?

Eh I think the problem is 2 fold. You don't massively change olympic sports and think your going to be close WITHIN the same olympic cycle you say you'll win. Like when she committed "full time" to running, this was already what 1 year post Rio. So 3 year window to "win gold in marathon".....now of course I have no doubt she didn't really think that (i mean of course she thinks she's going to win, but her comments were more PR machine), this was all PR fluff, and she's hugely successful in getting paid by sponsors.

You don't go from a "low volume" athlete to a high volume sport and not see these kinds of "setbacks". Even if she's on the low volume approach for marathon mileage compared to her competitors, you just dont change these type of training dynamics and set the world on fire.

So yeah I get it, she kinda has egg on her face because of all the pomp and bravada with the announcement of winning gold in Tokyo in the marathon and now this is her current output. But I also think that's all fluff, but yes the athlete has to own it when they come off that way- whether genuine or PR contrived.


Lastly I'll say what triathlon does for people- it gives you a reprieve from run pounding. I dont think people understand just how important that can be to run a super hard run day and instead of having to run again later that day, you can go shake out the legs with a 4k swim and get very similiar cardio-fitness benefits. Of course it's all about specificity and so triathlon running and speeds required to win gold are much different than the equal counterpart in run only events. BUT when you become a triathlete and your body begins to take advantage of that system of play- it's really really hard to get away from that for a much harder on the body system like running; where many days your recovery from running is well running some more. And yes I think she still "cross trains" *some* but nothing like she used to.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

This is pretty ridiculous and honestly she is flat out embarrassing herself. She ditched a sport that she was the best in the world at and that has given her so much to switch to something else - sure, I'm fine with that. My issue is that she seems to think that she can make the US team and take gold in Tokyo. That is insulting to the girls who have been working their whole life for a shot at the US team and a chance to win an Olympic medal.

She wont make the team. She has been training nearly a year for this race and turned in a worse performance than she did a couple months after Rio when she wasnt trained for the marathon. Sure, she went faster today but all things considered, she did worse than in NYC.

[pink]She would have run faster than 2:36 at NYC if she had the vaporfly shoes![/pink] Yeah, this was pretty much terrible. If it were me I'd probably just go back to triathlon, not too late for 2020 to do that.

---

Dimond Bikes Superfan

Was it raining in NYC?

I've never ran a good time in the rain.

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I dont know about embarrassing or egg on her face. Gwen has always been pretty humble and down to earth. With the one exception of her pronouncement regarding Tokyo. Which granted was pretty crazy. I dont know if she just got swept up in her Olympic Glory or what. But now it seems that she is pretty tempered in her blogs and such. I dont know about sponsors and even Bowerman. Will they continue to support her with these type of results? It will be interesting.

Either there is a really good reason she ran so slow(like being sick) or her coach is just really out of touch with the kind of athlete she is. I blame the coach for this one, she could have run this time in a hard training run. I hope this shocks her and the coach, her potential was no where near this run, unless he had her do a hard 20 miler yesterday.

Other much lesser triathlete women have run faster than this, lots of them. Hell, I ran faster than this all broken down and old, and on 8 weeks of 40mpw training..Perhaps she needs to switch distance, 10k 1/2 perhaps? At any rate this run does not reflect the athlete she is, I hope Talbot gets us an interview..

If it were me I'd probably just go back to triathlon, not too late for 2020 to do that.

------

yes it is. She understands more than anything the demands it took to win gold in triathlon. She understands the sacrifice....eeeeer investments it took (that was a key point that her coach made her realize), and she with a new family really wanted no part of the grind that is ITU racing. She wouldn't imo make the team if she came back, the sport and athletes have already progressed that much forward. It would be too steep of a humbling experience and far too close to trials to re-do everything (1st trials race is less than 1 year away). It would mean a complete move of family and/or atleast herself. It would imo mentally grind her to breakdown going back and forth.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I agree. That ship has sailed. Besides she clearly stated her priority is her family. I doubt she would even consider leaving them to chase ITU.

Not even close to 2:30. As I predicted a year ago, she will not make the USA olympic team let alone marathon gold. Triathlon is a very different sport than standalone running.

Ha, relax. Her sponsors and coach aren't going to drop her no matter how this next 1.5-2 years goes. That's imo precisely why she came to running. This was going to be her golden ticket to atleast 1 olympic cycle worth of "cashing in" on her tri olympic gold- even if it ends in utter disaster and doesn't make the team. But she gets to stay home with her hubs and kid every single day. Quick....has she traveled outside of the U.S. yet for a race or training since she moved to marathon running? That's the win she was looking for- stability and training on someone else's dime. But she's set for atleast this cycle for sure with sponsors and likely most defintely her coaching/training group. For better or worse she's going to cash those big sponsor checks and keep running with the group. And even if it fails, she's already won. This is just gravy and filling her pockets for 2 more years with someone else's money with very little "investment" from her own.

That's why I thought her whole "i'm winning gold" was nothing more than PR bullshit. That was simply what happens when people around her were making decisions for her and thus when you want the sponsors money, you do what they say.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Perhaps she needs to switch distance, 10k 1/2 perhaps? At any rate this run does not reflect the athlete she is, I hope Talbot gets us an interview..

-------

I dont think switching would be the answer, I mean you can't keep switching sports; that's the whole issue here imo (and i mean the issue in that she sorta pigeon holed herself to being this badass marathon runner before stepping foot back in running...and the fact that she was going to do it in a less than 3 year window from PR announcement-Tokyo marathon). And sure one of those distances she may be best at, but at some point, you have to stick to your guns and go "all in", or else by switching she's not going to see her best 10k training either because she'll have now lost what another year of "specificity". So I think at some point, you have to accept the decision you make and accept the final result; eta: regardless of if it was a good/bad/indifferent decision.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yes, she just eked in under the 2:37:00 A standard

I dont think switching would be the answer, I mean you can't keep switching sports;//

Come on man, that is not switching sports. The training for 10k/1/2 marathon is not all that different than the marathon, in fact a lot of speedy 10k guys used to run a very fast marathon just coming off of 10k training.


But that is neither here nor there, this was her worst result of this lead up, the 5k and 10k she ran through were better races. I said this very early on, and believe it to be the case still, she does not need high mileage like some runners do. She can race very well on a lower mileage program, and what is becoming apparent now, she gets broken down on a traditional marathon program. I don't know what is going to happen, if she went to the 5k or 10k and dropped 30 seconds and a minute, she would be 14;45 and about 30;45. What does that get you in the womens trials, I dont really know. But with our great marathon runners, 2;25 may not make the team, so time for some real hard looks at what is going on here..

I think you kinda missed my point in why I suggested it's not wise to "switch". More so in that you, what happens on her 1st real 10k experience she sucks? Do you say she switches to 5k/half/1mi? Etc. So my point was more that by suggesting she switch yet again, until you find the perfect distance you then are left with nothing in the end. Because if you are suggesting switching now, she's now only 2 years left to "nail it" for Tokyo.

ETA: And I would disagree that it's not a new "sport" for an athlete like GJ. To me it would be more similiar to what she's used to in the past with far more intensity over volume. So it would be closer to what she's used to, but it would still be a new specificity that she would be undertaking.


Of course this is looking at specifically for Tokyo because I dont think she's going to be an elite athlete post Tokyo. I think she's going to back away, be a mom of 2-3 kids (maybe she cant have anymore kids because 1st one was really really hard on her body), never to be heard from again; unless she does conference talk touring to make a boatload of money.


Essentially all I'm saying Monty is that when you sorta pigeon hole yourself to this type of specific window, you don't get a lot of time figuring out which one works best for you. That should have already been decided and then now we should be working on excelling the specificity of said sport- not figuring out which is best what 2 years from Tokyo.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Essentially why I suggested she shouldn't be switching is that she basically doesnt have the timeframe to be looking for what is the best distance for her. That should have already been decided upon and a training plan built to excel in that specific event.....not using 2 years of a 4 year cycle to figure out what event works best.

And again I say this because I think post Tokyo she's out. She's throwing her hands up and saying "mom/wife" time full time now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

There's always Ironman...

Personally I didn't know what to expect from her here. She hasn't raced enough at the marathon for me to gauge here. How many marathons does Shalane do per year?

Whereas we see the top Ironman athletes do multiple 70.3s and 140.6's per year, that may be just the way qualification went because of points but I'm not so sure. This was her A race, but I'm not sure she did enough B races and she didn't have a B race that was close enough in training to adequately test herself (6-weeks out half marathon).

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

What is the path of least resistance for her to return to triathlon in Tokyo? Could she keep with the marathon through a Spring race next year, decide it’s not happening, and then resume training and minimal overseas racing in time to make the team? If she shows form by early 2020, couldn’t USAT use their subjective process to name her with their third discretionary slot? That would be tough to do to one of the other strong female Americans, but you have to believe USAT would want the golden girl back out there.

So you mean show little interest in itu and then only when every marathon option fails she comes back to USAT saying she’s ready in what early fall 2019?

And she’ll showcase her itu talent when and how in that scenario?

ETA: The whole reason why she is doing running and not triathlon is because she had ZERO interest in doing another 4 years of ITU life demands. She had zero interest in living/training in 4 different locations over a 10 month period. She had zero interest in raising a family that way. And that's what it would take for her to have success at ITU....she knew that more than anyone, she respected the sport and the process and understood it that much- look at how she did when she "part timed" it versus when she went "all in". So there is no "least path of resistance"; in fact it's the opposite of that. And that's the reality she faced and she knew it, so she mad a heady play of taking advantage of her fame and gold medal and parlayed it into another 3 years of paid training.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Little wrinkle in the plot line... Gwen just mentioned being sick today in instagram... Interested to see what that's all about

---

Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

Do we know where she wants to be? I haven't seen her discuss a goal time but maybe I've missed it.

Little wrinkle in the plot line... Gwen just mentioned being sick today in instagram... Interested to see what that's all about //

I mentioned this earlier, it is the only reason for a positive spin on this race, that she did it sick. But that begs the question, why is she racing sick in the first place?? I do understand the pressure for her to get in a qualifying time, and if it was not full blown flu or a terrible cold, but perhaps the beginning or end of an illness, I can see the urge to race anyway.

based on her 5k and 10k times she probably wants to be around 2:27, which those performances would predict.

Aside from that who knows... top American at Chicago? Run a even or negative split, regardless of the time? It's hard to say where she herself wants to be. Certainly better than 2:36, sick or not.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

No stated goal but am assuming faster than this. Especially considering it is only 5 minutes faster than NYC.

Whoops missed that. My guesses I can think of

-I think the OQ definitely could serve as motivation. She's now got the flexibility to do whatever she needs to build up to trials. That's considerable peace of mind, I have to imagine.
-Maybe there was a contingency plan in place? I'm not familiar with pro marathoning, could she have entered New York if she had pulled the plug early on today?
-She has talked a lot about one day championship style racing and having to show up to give what you have. Might have been a part to see exactly what she can pull together on less than a perfect day.

Would be fun to be a fly on the wall in a situation like this, because I'm sure there was some good talk within her team

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Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

This wasn't a big surprise. I thought she'd be in low 2:29-2:32 kind of time I just think the switch has to have some perspective . Gwen is a remarkable athlete but she's way behind he competitors i in regards to background in competitive marathons. Jerry Schumacher is an excellent coach who not only has background with Shalane and Amy Craig but also was Gwen's coach at Wisconsin . Having been around competitive running for 49 years I really thought it was an uphill battle to even make the team . She can still improve we don't know if she went in sick or hurt . Let's see if a spring marathon can yield improvement !

That's very interesting.

So a few years back I meet with GJ's coach. I asked him specifically when he knew she was ready to win the gold at Rio. You know what he told me?

London 2015 when she raced sick as hell, had snot flying out her nose the whole race, felt like shit, didn't want to race, didn't give a shit and still executed a plan (got the W as well). He told me he knew then and there that she was mentally prepared and would show up on race day ready to fight under any race condition. He said he didn't even give a shit about her result, but her ability to fight through adversity and execute- that's when he knew she was finally ready to take it on race day no matter the conditions.



I don't know what that means in terms of GJ 2018, but I found that interesting that he would pick that moment in her training, and again it to me was more noted what her mental game was in terms of nothing stopping her. And I'm not going to compare a ton today, because honestly I think we are just watching an athlete play out an "comfort" decision to finish her career. She's a gamer and she's going to give it her all in this sport and do everything she can, but I also think this was the "safe" decision in terms of her athletic career. Safe in terms of it was by far the easiest on her and her family moving forward, even if it wasn't the most successful but was very lucrative helpful decision as well. ETA: It was also an decision that was helped in that...what's it really matter if she fails at the marathon? She's endurance athlete royalty now with her gold medal, so whether she makes it or not in marathon running, it won't have much impact on her overall. She's still going to get a ton of money at speaking engagements if she chooses that route, she's forever an golden girl within USAT and triathlon. So this is sorta an easy gamble to do with very little negative associated with it.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Excuses

Just clarifying, are you saying you think her marathon career is more lucrative than triathlon? I think in the Outside Online article I just saw said she'd have to win multiple majors a year to equal what she was doing in triathlon. Or are you saying it's still lucrative just not as much

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Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

I'm saying that by switching to marathon running that she was able to get to train for 3 more years on someone else's dime and on her terms. That was never going to be the case with ITU.

And that's why I think it was an easy switch. She had zero interest in being away from family, she had zero interest in traveling and living out of a suitcase for weeks at a time.


So that's a far more lucrative lifestyle for her as a mother and wife than living the itu lifestyle, even if she was making more money. She realized the cost of that, and wanted no part of that for another 3 years.

ETA: So she gets paid full time to do her favorite sport, see her family every day, lay roots in an town in the U.S.....yeah that's a huge win win for her. Do I think it would have been the same without the funding opportunity? I doubt it, but I also know she simply took advantage of her opportunity.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

η

...and at that point we'll have another "magnificent" switch story, back to triathlon but long distance this time, to take KonaWC by "surprise"... Marketing is the name of the game here! Lots of it!😉

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"Discipline is the highest of all virtues. Only so may strength and desire be counterbalanced and the endeavors of man bear fruit."
Nikos Kazantzakis, The Rock Garden

She already had a trials qualifier based on her half marathon. So nope.

Also, to be accurate, what you mentioned above as an OQ should called and OTQ.

Kudos to Gwen.

In the past 2 years she has...

Won an Olympic Gold
Gave birth to her first child
Switched sports and found a new challenge
Trained for the highest level of running while being a mother

I don't get why people think she should do.....go back to ITU instead. She has stated that she did not want to travel around the world for racing, nor to do training camps. She has a family now and that is obviously her biggest priority. She never really enjoyed triathlon (has mentioned this several times) but more wanted to get the gold. She has also stated that she has zero desire for an Ironman. Marathon seemed like a great challenge for her that allowed her to be the person she wanted to be outside of sport while still earning a good career in terms of sponsors, pay, etc.

I commend Gwen for having such a great perspective and not giving into the public pressure (triathlon 2020/Ironman, etc). She has done what she wanted to do, accomplished a lot more than she ever thought she would while working 70+ weeks in finance.

I predict she will continue with this through olympic trials, give it her best and call it an athletic career after trials. Probably launch her own running or triathlon coaching company after this.

A lot of incredible arm chair quarterbacking going. I do think she will be lucky to make the US Olympic team and very lucky to ever get down to a sub-2:25 . With that said...it does look like she just blew up. Maybe she was already in 2:30, sub-2:30 form, but had a bad race. I mean, maybe her nutrition is not dialed yet, maybe she had bad taper or she's had a bit of a niggle that flared up and she couldn't push through. I still think she'd be better off going for Rio 2020 or Ironman 70.3 and/or Ironman. It is her life and if she isn't passionate for triathlon, I totally understand her reas9n for pursuing her run career.

The half marathon qualifying window is different than full. Half times start September 1st 2018. But i guess with her 2:36 today she is fine.

So we don't know. That was all I was asking

"I am gutted, I would say very disappointed with my result...To be brutally honest, right after the race I looked at my husband and said ‘Oh my goodness, I’m really questioning what the heck I’m doing.” -GJ

Yikes

Ah yes she needs to empower the 1 day racing rule and social media/coaching conversations. I have my athletes live by this creed- after a negative and I mean negative/bad/pissed off performance you

A)never go to social media and say what your feeling/thinking immediately post race

B)never talk to your coach with anything more meaningful than a check in immediately after race usually if they are there in person.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Well that clears it right up.

Ah but she also said that she is not giving up and with that she was off to her scheduled meet and greet for her fans. Classy.

I think she's a really well performing professional athlete.
She's excellent at making money in her 9 to 5.
So whatever everyone may say, she's a highly successful entrepreneur, who seems to value get family life.
Maybe her results are not the best in the world, but she's definitely way out there in terms of being a great professional.
Depending on your definition of professional, that might make her one if the best professional endurance athletes ever.

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NO

"I am gutted, I would say very disappointed with my result...To be brutally honest, right after the race I looked at my husband and said ‘Oh my goodness, I’m really questioning what the heck I’m doing.” -GJ //

This is exactly why I'm a fan, she is not looking for any silver lining, just the facts of the matter. She knows, I know, and many others know, that she was ready to run in the 2;20's somewhere, but something serious is amiss. I hope that this shocks her enough to make the proper changes, I believe she knows what she has been doing wrong, but like most athletes, they hand over all responsibility to coaches, spouses, and friends. And it especially seems to be a thing with women, going all the way back to my day. Stop being told what to do, and just do what all your years of top level training and performance tells you to do. Dont be so skinny, dont feel you have to run the mileage of other ladies, just do what got you here. Maybe ride the bike again a bit, drop about 25% of the miles per week, eat some burgers, drink a beer..


But like others have said, she is fine financially and will be for the near future. But that is very little solace when your whole athletic endeavor starts crashing headlong into a brick wall. She can still pull up and miss the ground, but it has to be soon, and it has to be a change of something...

I swear I feel like once you become a triathlete, you can never go back in terms of training philosophy. It's why it kills me when I see these HS athletes who are top junior triathletes and run sub 15 5k off tri training, then get forced to D1 running programs, and coach axes out the cross training, the very thing that likely helped and allowed said athlete to get to the top end results.


How often for 6+ years would she do a long hard interval run and then recover by swimming or biking and not running again for 24 hours.....whereas what's the recovery for a runner???? Oh an "easy" 8k or easy 30 mins, etc.....when the answer to your question is, how do runners recover? By running....that's a very hard concept to follow for an elite athlete when they haven't been prescribed to that philosophy in many many years.

Now with that being said, there is sport specificity and with the marathon, you can't fake running 26.2 miles. You maybe can fake 18 or 20 of those 26.2 miles, but that last 10k is going to kill you if you don't have some volume on the legs. But I think there are some "junk" miles that an marathoner can subsitute with a bike to keep their body on schedule.

ETA: But there is also an thought that I likely wouldn't really want an itu triathlete to turn to marathon for their next immediate sport of choice, simply because it's f'ing hard to train up and race well at. As I said I think you can fake 70% of the race on fitness, but then you can hurt badly. So I likely wouldn't have prescribed an athlete like GJ to go to this specific distance, if she only wanted to run. But again, I think a lot of this was taking advantage of her gold medal and the "dream" that sponsors see/hope/think and thus $$ to train and live as she wanted (as a family in the U.S.), and that was a lot of variables that made it hard to turn down. So in that aspects I would think this is an unique case whereas most triathletes would make this type of change.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I was there today and also was in NYC last year. I struggled today as well after the 30k mark. There was a stretch there straight into the wind, maybe it would have been better to take the foot off the gas and make up the time in the last 4 miles cos it is a protected straightaway. I think that Gwen made the same mistake seeing how her time dropped between the 30k and 35k marks.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

The last 2-ish miles into the headwind didn’t help, either.

Its a marathon guys, of course over 26 miles there are going to be hard spots. But the top 6 guys went under 2;06+? and winning woman 2;18? Hard to call this anything other than a fast course, and of course she was not on pace very early, so there is that too. Along with her gutted comment, so it was not the course that defeated her today..

Yep, was just thinking that Nicola Spirig ran 2:37 in Zurich and I can bet she didn't run any 100mi weeks or do altitude training and all that crap...

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What's your CdA?

I totally agree that it is a fast course but I feel that it requires the right strategy to maximize the outcome. She went out too fast and I felt the same way about the way my race went.

But yeah, she ain't good enough at this point to contend for the gold.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

She went out in 17:59 (2:31 pace)? Care to explain how that was too fast? It's not like she went out with the leaders and blew up. She was with the meager field of American women and then got dropped by them running over 2:30 pace.

With all due respect, unless you were running under 2:20-2:25... comparing her race to yours is... well, I think a bit hard to do.

apple, meet orange.

Hopefully she can pull of some strong races before making a decision to go back to triathlon. She could be set up very well financially with a few more olympic golds and dabbling into 70.3/IM after that.

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Ruble Triathlon Coaching Average of 30 coached PR's per year
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Didn’t hurt mo

before making a decision to go back to triathlon//

I don't think she likes triathlon anymore, and it certainly doesn't fit in with her lifestyle either. I imagine this is it for her, running until the clock runs out on this new career...

she struggled from the start. it looks like the lead pack women followed some two guys to break wind for them - gwen is a foot taller than these girls

This is probably not a major factor, but anecdotally I find that women I work with who have little kids get sick more, kids seem to bring home all sorts of flu bugs and whatnot. So as Gwen's little guy gets older and interacts more with other kids, it may be more challenging for her to stay healthy compared to pre-kids.

I'm guessing she'll keep him anyway. :)

ALL RIGHT! I podiumed in silver!

I was at the race today around the elite athletes pre/post (my wife raced in the elite field - was also sick and DNF just after 25k).

The weather wasn't perfect, but it was fairly good I'd say. Cool and periodic rain, mild winds. Naturally, everything gets magnified late in the marathon, but the conditions today were far better than a hot year.

I did find it odd that the race billed itself as 'having pacers back', but only had them for the men (not that it would have changed anything). Men had pacers targeting 62:15 and 65:30, none for women.

Gwen looked pretty disappointed after the race and was walking around pretty gingerly. Was wearing Nike Free's like slippers post-race (heel crushed down). All said, I'm sure she will bounce back from this. The cold/rain would not pair well with being even mildly sick.

Might have been too fast for her fitness level today.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Joan Benoit Samuelson

3:11 at 61

That's impressive

This reminds me of Mark Allen's pursuit of an Oly Mary Q time back in '94. Despite being able to run 2:40 at Kona, he was only able to get down to 2:25 in an open mary, vs the 2:19:59 required to run in the Men's Oly Mary Trials. Also, at the risk of bringing up a hated-by-ST guy, Kevin Moats ran 2:20:0X before he ever got into tri, but yet I don't think he ever got much below 3:00 in an iron mary. Can't recall all his results, perhaps he went 2:5X once or twice but nothing close to Allen's 2:40. Obv the iron mary and open mary are diff animals. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

She must be gutted. Last year she ran 2:41 in New York off no long runs and triathlon training, including doing the Island House triathlons 1 week before the marathon.
New York is a few minutes slower than Chicago, so that she ran a 2:36 is maybe an improvement of 2-3 minutes.

Given that she has been concentrating on the marathon and has increased her mileage a lot, it really doesn't look good for her getting down to a sub2:20, which will be necessary is she wants to have a chance at a medal at the Olympics.

I agree that cycling as cross training is underrated for runners. Maybe the absolute elite need to just run, but the rest of us can probably do better by getting in decent run volume (<100k per week), backed up by bike volume.

I just felt sorry yesterday when I saw her finish time...she blew up and was almost dragging for the last 12k...sick or no sick
Anyhow, Gwen seems a nice girl, and she has to make a living like everyone else. I have read a lot of stuff against her...well, she has taken advantage of what she did in triathlon and she is also a good promotion for everybody who is around...nobody in these days gives you something for free..
Maybe the real goal would be to qualify for Tokyo...who is able to beat all the Africans??? Going to Tokyo would be a huge accomplishment and I am sure she will try her best... winning? just unreal
This reminds me of Shelia Taormina, olympic in 3 different sports, gold medal in the swim relay but not as high profile as Gwen...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

yeah, i saw her name on the elite women's draw and was delighted. good on her for cranking that out.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

On one of the last videos I saw of her she said something like she was doing pre-hab / strength, and recovery stuff like 6 hrs a day on top of running, I seriously question whether that iswhat she felt she signed up for when switching to running because she had more passion for the sport. Also nursing an Achilles injury which I know is not fun. In my case that never really went away without stopping running almost completely.

She said she had moved away from triathlon because she dreaded the pool and certain tedious parts of the training regimen, seems to me the marathon training has been just as much drudge work, and now she is seeing for very little reward.

Where is this mentioned?

i think i call nonsense on the 6 hours/day figure. doesn't that seem high?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Instagram story

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Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

In watching the race on TV, she looked caught off guard by the pace from the gun. There was a large gap she had to pull back by 400m and, although hard to see, she looked worried immediately. I think she knew she wouldn't have it today. She may know she doesn't have 'IT' period.

She will be watching Tokyo on TV. The real goal, as has been suggested a number of times, is to pull a decent paycheck for a few years without having to travel the ITU circuit. After being blown out of contention at the Olympic Trials Marathon in Atlanta on 29 Feb 2020, she will most likely retire from competitive sport. Less than 17 months away to a new life.

Right on. This is absolutely it. She is making - who knows - but maybe $300-500k a year doing this.

I do think she is earnestly pissed about the result, though.

Doesn't matter but: could she have made more money in the long-run doing a few 70.3's and being the #1 ambassador for USATriathlon?

On a side note: I'll need some odds but I'll take anyone up on a bet that she will be in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics. I am saying she will be there (but as an announcer : )

I think you added an extra 0 to that income estimate. Pros don't get much money

Post race video is up:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKVJUIa_xBI&t=0s


Reality settling in for her especially since everything seem to be going well up to the race. Her face when she finished and went up to Pat was hard to watch.

An Olympic Gold medal is the most marketable achievement on earth. If she is only scratching out $50K on it she is doing something wrong.

She said she runs for 2 hours, gets treatment/does prehab for another 2 and lies in bed for four. So it is an eight hour day but most of it is sleeping and resting.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Nah, she's pulling in at least she 300k. Kara Goucher, although an attractive and likeable athlete, never won a gold medal and she made that much.

This is exactly why I'm a fan of Lionel Sanders. he is not looking for any silver lining, just the facts of the matter. he knows, I know, and many others know, that he was ready to run in the 8:0x somewhere, but something serious is amiss. I hope that this shocks him enough to make the proper changes, I believe he knows what he has been doing wrong, but like most athletes, they hand over all responsibility to the internet. And it especially seems to be a thing with Canadians, going all the way back to my day. Stop being told what to do, and just do what all your years of top level training and performance tells you to do. Dont be so skinny, dont feel you have to run the mileage of other triathletes, just do what got you here. Maybe ride the bike again a bit, drop about 25% of the miles per week, eat some burgers, drink a beer..

Nice...(-;

The most interesting comment was before the race Pat mentioned a 5:40-5:45 pace (so 2:28-2:30). It seems the goal was to break 2:30.

I was questioning whether GJ was actually getting her mileage up and running a ton...video confirms it, she's running 120 mile week(s?). Seeing her finish, she looked almost crippled/hobbled. I hope she keeps plugging along, because I think it's hard to jump up to this distance and nail it, but I also think it's one of those things, that at some point, you don't get to keep "trying". Like you cant just go out and run a marathon a month type of deal. So it's going to be even more pressure on the next one, etc.

But that's life in the fast lane when you jump to a "new" sport and call your shot in a 3 year window.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Agreed. Amazing experience. More time will get her there. I know it took me 3 goes to get it right. And out of 15 now am at 2 really bad, 3 bad, 2 average, and 5 good, 3 really good. She's had 2 goes which vs expectations were good and bad. She'll get closer to expectations next time!

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

Indeed. Mike Eruzione, who had no future whatsoever in hockey, literally made an entire career on it.

Agreed. That video series moves her to a new level in terms of fan/consumer appeal and interest. If I was a sponsor, the content her team is creating would be my baseline of commitment from an athlete. And for an endurance gold medallist, trying to compete in the most competitive endurance sport in the world, I'd pay top sponsorship dollar for that content/exposure/promotion.

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

Agreed. Can't fake a marathon. And you can definitely sub in bikes and swims for easy runs. Different intensities for those though. In my mind, an easy 10-20k run is worth a hard swim, or a medium level 90min-2hr bike.

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

lol 🤣

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1

No, this is wrong. She was told not to go any faster than that at all. Meaning they knew she wasn’t in 2:30 shape. And she wasn’t. She started slow and faded big time.

I was working the first water station and snapped some pics as she ran by.

bingo - one of my old coaches used to say that anyone can run 20 miles; it's the last 6 that make you a marathoner.

in the video posted - admittedly just a short clip, at the very end of the race - she looked unwell. just seemed weak and tired and her stride seemed off. . .

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

It looks like someone who knows nothing about what professional athletes earn is opining on what professional athletes earn.

I have no clue what Gwen makes but I would bet that it is at least $100k. I am not sure of the inner workings of Nike but she has had multiple shoes made specifically for her and I imagine they only do that for their higher up athletes. The fact that she is a very high profile athlete that non runners/triathletes can relate to also helps her, again I only assume. She is a mother who is balancing a family life and a professional runner is something as well. Also, she was making a lot of money as a triathlete and I highly doubt she would have left triathlon to make less than half of what she was making there even if the lifestyle suited her.

Again, I have no clue what she is making as a runner but she was making $200kish in prize money as a triathlete so add in more for sponsors and we get close to $300-500k. So let's meet in the middle of that $30k and $500k and I assume it is close.

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