thanks for starting this - looking forward to the surprises; does an extra week prove beneficial to those that rode the Giro, or not, and to those that tried it before but not this year (Quintana). How does Moviestar make it work, Sky train, which French rider shines ? So many others to mention (Roglic, Soler etc)
oh boy here it comes plus World cup

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

It'll be interesting to see how the Tour plays out this year with many new factors. It could be conservative boring tour; or be wide open, changing of the guard with new sprinters claiming wins and many first-timers donning Yellow. If it's wide open it'll be due to some of the changes such as:

The reduction of 1 rider per team bringing the total peloton down from 198 to 176. Will this equal less crashes? Probably not. But if a team has a few injuries, it will definitely change that teams dynamics and race strategy.

15 cobble sections traversing 13 miles on Stage 9 will also be interesting. Especially if it ends up raining!

The NASCAR-esque grid start on stage 17 of a short (39-miles) but hilly race will make for some interesting drama if the Yellow Jersey is at Pole Position with there team in the back.

Love to see Taylor Phinney in Yellow again in the early stages! And maybe Tejay gets his first win in the Pyrnees?!?!

I cannot wait for stage 17.....

Still bummed about Velogames, we had so many teams registered for the Slowtwitch league.

Here are my predictions:
Who I want to win: Uran or Tom D
Tom D has impressed me in the last 2 Giro's, I hope he has recovered fully & can give it a go.

I think the cobbles will add excitement and we may not see a Froome victory lap like the past.

Its funny Geraint Thomas thinks the leader will be decided. Froome will always be the leader, he needs to change teams.

Top 3:
Froome
Tom D
Bardet

Porte will have a great first 2 weeks with a strong team, but he will fall in Week 3.

Dark House:
Dan Martin
Fulsang
Watch out for Bernal from Sky- he is the future

I think we are going to have a lot of great stages with riders like Roglic, Alaphilippe, Benoot, Kwiatkowski, Stuyven, Jungels

Green Jersey: Sagan. Cobrelli may give him a challenge
White Jersey: Not sure of the age of riders so I am putting Bernal
Polka Dot- Barguil/Martin

The TTT on stage 3 will be the first test. Gc riders can lose a lot of time with not so good TTT effort.

With teams starting only 8 riders this year, the TTT could look a little different

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Will be interesting to see how/if 8 riders opens racing up. With this route GC teams have to have a couple classics guys to get through first 1/3 of race. Subtract 1 more domestique and the mountain stages could get interesting.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see GT finish higher than Froome.

C. Spack!
We will populate this thread.
"I will say that people dressing up as giant inhalers is a lot better than people dressing up as giant syringes. It seems a step forward."

The sprinter field is super deep. Can’t wait to see the fight to the finishes.

French in yellow. Calmejean in an upset.

Just flipped the TV on and looks like they've had a nasty crash already. Didn't hear who the rider was but someone riding back to the peleton with the aid of a teammate while bleeding from up around the cheekbone and his kit all torn.

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"You can never win or lose if you don't run the race." - Richard Butler

what channel are you watching on?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I got 10/1 on Cav winning this 1st stage, I'm fuming this is going to clash with England v Sweeden!

NBCSN

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"You can never win or lose if you don't run the race." - Richard Butler

yeh lawson craddock from ef drapac. Riding, favouring his left shoulder, looks like a collarbone or scapula fracture. Still sitting in at the moment, not sure if he turns up tomorrow.

Gaveria looks strong if he gets a run to the line

gold app or regular app?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Just the regular channel on my TV

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"You can never win or lose if you don't run the race." - Richard Butler

Ha! Those French are creative.

What a *boring sprint stage* — GC carnage. Interestingly, looked like the weaker TTT squads all got the minute back that they’ll lose Monday.

There’s going to be ST pandemonium in another thread considering 1-2 were on disc bikes...

What happened to Cav?

Gold app works really well and is only like $40 for a year. Well worth it, because it also replays stages in case you miss in am. Mathew Keenan and Robbie McEwen also do the announcing.

Thank goodness, I really dislike the Phil’s

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

And I was thinking that Roglic was a ballsy pick! This is waaaay out there

Good to see Degenkolb in the top 10, that makes him my favorite for Stage 9.

Today reinforced my thinking that first 1/3 of race will suit GC guys with classics chops like Nibali, GT, TD, Valverde, Martin and Bardet. Crashes are partially bad luck but Porte was way back when he got held up, and Froome also looked out of position. Quintana’s flat was purely bad luck at worst possible moment; even had his team dropped back they couldn’t have helped that much when it was full gas to finish.

I’m with you..I watch cycling on http://tiz-cycling.live ....just becareful with the few popups

Sagan in 2nd - who would have guessed?

Eganski lives on ST! I knew *another TdF* thread would be worth it. My work is done here.

Stage 9 is going to be outstanding. Hopefully it will rain and be especially shitty. Also hoping Degenkolb’s compadre Tom Skujins has a good race.

While fight for yellow might last almost until Paris, the fight for green might be over by stage 10.

As long as ASO doesn’t kick him out before that for throwing a phantom elbow

While certainly after stage 1 I would never count anyone out. But to lose a good 50 seconds to a handful of GC guys I’m going to say what I’ve been saying. The double is impossible. Sure 50 seconds can be made up but to lose them on a flat stage... who knows there might be a surprise and TJ finally lives up to his potential. I see it essentially as fumbling the opening kickoff in the Super Bowl. Yeah sooo much time forget it and move on. But down already...

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

50 seconds is nothing, especially early in the race. In the mountains, Froome will dust off those riders like old cobwebs.

He better take something or that dust might get in his chest...

Lol. TJ will drop out on stage 17 from “illness”

Is TD racing the tour? I didn’t see him mentioned at all. I thought he was.

very well played... chappeau

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Yeah, Froome doesn't give a shit about 50 seconds, especially when he still put time into Quintana. Some guys are acting like Froome has never crashed on the first day of a grand tour and still ended up winning.

That needs some pink font.

Anyone who doesnt think loosing time is a concern, is drunk. Certainly doesn’t end Froome’s race or anything dramatic but nobody wants to give up an inch in a GT. Especially when there’s more of this ahead, not to mention stage 9, plus unknown of double. Bernal also wasted a lot of energy chasing unnecessary instead of riding it in and saving to fight another day; not exactly an ideal start for Sky.

Saw that Quintana hit a curb and broke both wheels so it wasn’t all luck.

I meant Laporte for today. Got my Frenchmen mixed up. Still like Roglic for a stage. Laporte beat out the nut job Bouhanni for a spot.

There looks to be room for rolleurs and breaks to stay away this year. The cobbles are going to bust things up too. Froomie hit the deck already? Going to plan. I made the mistake of following Carlton Kirby on twitter. I like him as a commentator but damn, another Froomie apologist. The Brits are quite....loyal. Go team.

Phil Gil and Terpstra got Bora on the back foot today. Looked to really spring Gaviria.

Thank you! Considering last years race was decided by 54 seconds I’m pretty sure losing 50 seconds on a flat day is a pretty huge deal. Again not like it’s over. But that’s a bad start on a year he’s tried for he already difficult double.

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

It was reported that he ran into a traffic island and broke both wheels, so perhaps partly his fault. I'd say it was good luck he stayed upright. I wonder if the strategy shifts to Landa, but it's probably too early.

I'm watching on Dutch TV and saw an interview with Dumoulin. He was spinning his cooldown while being interviewed and almost fell off his bike laughing when asked about competitors falling and flatting. He knows it matters much. The time, the physical effort, and the mental damage all count.
There's 3 more weeks but the race may have been decided today. It has definitely changed the strategies for the TTT and probably the cobbles.

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NO

Was I hallucinating? I could swear those were podium girls I saw at the award presentations, the ones that I was led to believe had been banned from le Tour. Are they calling them something new now? Or was it a package deal, reinstating them with Froome?

What do win? I want podium girl kisses

If a long race could be decided that early then Andy Potts would be a 10+ time Kona champion. Hang tight, there's still a lot more racing to go!

Chavenel is rolling disc brakes. Peloton better be careful at the catch. I’ll cut you, man. (In French.)

Today looked like a brutal finish, Sagan once again positioned perfectly. This first week has already been really interesting and the following stages will continue to get better !!

You're not kidding. I'm amazed how Sagan can always find his way up to the front. It's almost like once you knew he avoided the crash you knew he would somehow find a way to win.

I think one of the main reasons the margin was so tight last year was that Froome was trying to win while expending as little effort as possible, as he was saving himself for the Vuelta. He looked to have a fair bit in reserve. Obviously this year he has the opposite problem of having the Giro in his legs already, but at least he can burn all his matches this year and not worry about any more racing. Unless of course Sky are planning on winning all 3 GTs in a single calendar year...

Agree 50 seconds is far from ideal, especially with Bernal also having gone down so that's 2 Sky riders who have crashed, and the soreness normally comes up 2 days later, just in time for the TTT tomorrow!

Not only that but he always avoids the crashes. Demaire is not at the same form he was last year but I was surprised to see him at the end after flatting.
Interestingly Greipel was there at the end and didn’t sprint. Is he over the hill?

Griepel had a flat with about 4 miles to go.

I thought it was Demare with the flat. Greipel flatted too? At any rate, he was there at the front and had nothing left to give.

You may be right.

Nope definitely a weak sprint from Greipel. He has accomplished a lot in his career but is getting to old.

Kittel with the flat? Also, what was the deal with Degenkolb? He waved his hands during the sprint as he was overtaken by Sagan and then also pointed at him as he won. Unhappy about something or cheering him on (which would be odd)?

Something about dangerous behavior by Sagan, not sure exactly what happened though.

Clearly a much faster stage today - much higher normalized power / TSS numbers than yesterday...

Kristoff didn’t either. Looks like they started too far back and didn’t jump quick enough.

As if he everyday jersey isn’t good enough before he switches to green he also gets yellow for a day.

In post race interview he didn’t seem excited about have the yellow for 1 day. Lol
He looked gased. I think Bora will be taking it easy in the TTT tomorrow.

He was whining about Sagan in his line.

With reason - he almost hit the deck after Sagan swerved all the way from the center to the right, thereby pushing Degenkolb into the barriers.

Dege couldnt hold Demare's wheel, Sagz could close it and shut the door on Dege, it was even reviewed and no fault found.

Agreed, you have to assert yourself to win sprints. That is why Sagan has over 100 wins and degenkolb is a sprint pack fodder. Degenkolb had no chance anyways and the gap opened and Sagan grabbed it. Degenkolg could have fought for position but instead gave way and complained.

Exactly. He didn’t have the snap or positioning to follow Demare’s wheel, and Sagan had both. So did Colbrelli—he’s going to nab some big wins at some point.

TTT predictions: BMC, Sky, Sunweb, all within 15 seconds.
*edit: and Gaviria takes back yellow.

Dang, 34.1 mph (54.8 kph) for Sky team. Mechelton Scott only 5 seconds slower.

Nothing to do with the race result, but I got a chuckle out of seeing the driver of the Steve Porino motorcycle (NBC Sports). Old guy with a handlebar mustache and orange framed sunglasses like my daughter wore when she was five years old.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

I think GVA gests yellow, we will see how EQS goes. Does Bora have any chance at all? Lots of TT chops in the team if they wanted to be serious, but are they going to conserve for the rest of the week?

Bora has big engines, not impossible. GvA is a good call too. And if any team could benefit from the yellow jersey it's BMC.

I have a question.
If youre a rider and get dropped by your team and worried about missing cutoff, can you recover for a couple minutes and jump on the wheel of the next team that passes you for a few min, recover, and repeat with the next team that passes? Is that against the rules? Is it a faux pas?

Having said that, I think the cutoff is generous enough for these guys for that not to happen.

You cannot draft in any way with another team during the TTT or ITT. That being said you occasionally see this occur but often a penalty will follow.

QS just keeps on winning. That Gaviria guy might turn into a decent bike rider...

I remember watching Gaviria on the track simply ride off the front in sprints like it was nothing. He has transitioned extremely well to the road. Sagan had a rough day yesterday but clearly felt fine today. Dumb crash but EFD did a good job helping Uran. I did enjoy QS complain about the lack of cooperation in the chase.

Yep, Sagan looked fine today, although he was surprisingly a bit slow to react to Gaviria and Greipel's initial accelerations. If he reacted quicker, he wouldn't have had to spend so much energy just catching back up to them and likely wins (though helped by Gavaira being forced to go a little to early when his teammate pulled off)

Sagan is just so damned impressive with his feel and fluidity in traffic. (And that bike throw to completely rob Greipel of 2nd right at the last sliver of a second!)

(How do you embed a YouTube video player here?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgKAaauiH5o

The flip side is that I Griepal had any kind of leadout today he might have won, glad to see the Gorilla back in business.

Sagan in 2nd again ;). Actually I was surprised he didn’t wreck trying to squeeze through on the barrier. And then the way he moved around from complete left to far right was wreckless and could have caused problems. Good thing for Cav that he didn’t/couldn’t hang on his wheel today (pink)

Yep, nice teamwork by EF. Super impressive lead out for Gaviria and then he holds off Sagan and le Gorilla into the head wind. Would be nice to see Cav grind it out and stay off the deck well into the tour, maybe get some. How far does he go? Has he said?

Tomorrow look like a rolleur day.

yea, good day for QS. good year really. they are an impressive squad. not much for us to grouse about this year.

on the other hand, I think the next few days should be more entertaining. at least have more entertainment.

2nd from being enveloped in a tight pack quite a few wheels back with no lead-out man to protect him, as usual. If you look again, Arnaud Demare pushed Sagan toward the barrier while trying to steal Gaviria's wheel, and he defended his position smoothly, staying on the gas and avoiding a crash. The move from left to right was done on the accelerator, clearing the wheels he was overtaking and avoiding problems, which he often does. It's these subtle, fluid moves modulating the throttle and surfing with feel that make him so deft at working traffic in the most frenetic moments coming to the line. Meanwhile, Cav got off the throttle and protested when someone seemingly came across him accelerating into the gap he'd left ahead of him by not committing to the sprint (he continues to erode his legacy with poor attitude, which I wish wasn't the case, as he's accomplished so much---he should be a class act with more than stats).

nothing dangerous about that move since there was a clear path.

Sagan's ability to float is starting to become numb to me, as I pretty much have come to expect it despite how difficult it is. He just makes it look so damn easy.

It's true. I was 30yds from the line at the '16 TdCA stage 1 finish, he made his move right in front of me and my son, just incredible to watch. Then we saw the heli view on the jumbotron, and the work through traffic to set up his sprint was simply dumbfounding. He makes it look easy, and it's still unreal when you look at what happened after the fact, and you see it happen again and again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB0b0rHSc6Q

Today was a pure a sprint stage as you get, with a high quality field. Second is pretty impressive for a "non-sprinter". Clearly he's not as quick as some of the others but like you noted, his ability to be in the right place + extraordinary handling skills + never backing off unmatched.

Did nobody read the “pink” part? I am typing on my phone so that is only way I can indicate the sarcasm.

Yes Sagan’s ability to find holes and float through traffic is amazing. I was being sarcastic as that’s what Cav and his fans are always complaining about - particularly last year when Cav tried the same move, wrecked, then Sagan got kicked out of the tour.

Carry on.

Oooops! :-O

I just went over to a thread about Tejay. I won’t do that again. I almost replied.
I just need to be held. It’s crazy out there.

I'm still thinking Froome wins this thing. He's doing that thing where he lays low for the first half of the tour and then he will pop up and blow the walls off.

His trainer mentioned a few weeks ago that they just wanted to take it day by day and see how his fitness goes. I am surprised he started, he clearly does not have the form, but in some ways this is a great training block with the added sponsor exposure bonus.

Edit: there is speculation on other forums that Cav is pissy because Cervelo is currently sitting on a new aero bike but not allowing him to ride it at the moment.

#ByeFernando

what was GvA doing there, leading out with 400m to go?

What exactly did you expect Froome, or any other GC guy to do in the first 5 stages? Other than the TTT, every stage so far has been a field sprint, so "laying low" is really the only option other than trying to chase back on after you crash.

Listening to The Move podcast, and Lance mentions that USPS paid for advertising during the NBC broadcast.

This sport man

i think GvA thought he had a real shot at the stage, but that was a long 350 meters.....
Cobrelli had him....then he didn't had him.....Sagan is....yeah.....
Carlton Kirby managed to give Froome a reacharound while calling the finish for Eurosport....skillz

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tour-de-france-miscalculation-costs-van-avermaet-in-quimper


Apparently GVA was told there was 250m to go instead of 350m which explains his perfect Sagan lead out.

I think there is a difference between being told something (Implying it was someone else outside their team like a race official who gave unreliable information)...and...

When asked about how that mistake was made, Van Avermaet referred to a GPX-file that was used to determine the distance. The GPS Exchange Format (GPX) sets out a track with multiple trackpoints that can then be used to measure the distance between those points.

"I don't know. We watched the gpx file," he said. "Maybe it's not up until 100m correct [laughs]. We have to check. We measured from the point in the corner and that showed 250 metres. That's how it is. In the end, it would be hard to beat Peter after the effort I did to catch Phil. That's how racing is. You make some decisions and only the guy who wins did the right thing.”


Seems like they used an unreliable form of measuring distance to determine their strategy rather than having someone actually go out on the course and measure it themselves. For such an important stage that not only could have resulted in a stage win, but also retaining yellow, you would think they would have done more homework.

I don't disagree, you think they would verify. I didn't mean to imply it came from outside the team, he was relayed incorrect information from somewhere... I just assumed it wasn't GVA himself doing the measuring.

Sagan winning was less surprising to me than Colbrelli challenging him that close again. Peto has a lot of swords to cross with him on punchy finales and #ByeFernando on straight up sprints.

Tomorrow will be a great finish, so many options. Sagan could win if its just a hard tempo to the finish. If the climbers launch some attacks Sagan will suffer. QS has three real options tomorrow for the finish. Its going to be a cluster as every GC contender wants to be on the front for this climb. GVA will loose the jersey tomorrow. TVG could potentially take it if he is up front. Froome launch a late attack with 1k to go to test the legs?

I think a late attack wins, roglic possibly?

Was like a classics day in July. Gilbert goes for a long one and everyone has to run him down. Gaviria pulled the plug early. More smart QS stuff with PG getting the nod.
That was a hard 5th day.

Gaudin in the break! He's a beast.

And Toms in polka dots, even if just for a day. We’re going to talk to him Monday for quick podcast check-in on rest day.

Hard to look past QS today, especially Alaphilippe and Gilbert. Also looks good for Dan Martin, Valverde and even GvA.

I'll go with Alaphillipe but would like to see Dan Martin get one.

good call. I was hoping that Phil Gil would take a flyer yesterday or today. [cough, fan boy, cough]

I suspect today will be one of those suicidal climber pseudo sprints. Dan Martin for me.

that said, Sagan looks like he's bored right now. with 4k to go...how does he get beat? too steep maybe?

Yeah Danny Boy!!!

Panda Power!!! You knew LaTour was done for when he gap-checked with 150m to go.

Awesome! Thought for sure he went too early. Beautiful.

that only matters when you have a 90 degree turn

attack reminiscent of all of his famous attacks (2013 Liege and 2014 Liege). Also quite nice that he beat old man Piti, too

That was awesome, good for Danny Boy and UAE. One time Talansky told me Martin could get off the couch and bust out 600 watts for a minute. Got to think it took and more in last k.

Big bummer for TD and Bardet.

agreed. Bardet would have been in my wild cards for a day like this. he's been tough this year.

AND ... I am looking forward to the Sunday cobbles. this list could beat each other silly. its their last chance for yellow before the hills on Tuesday.

General classification after stage 6:

1 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team 22:35:46
2 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Team Sky 00:00:03
3 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 00:00:05
4 Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Quick-Step Floors 00:00:06
5 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Quick-Step Floors 00:00:12

And Jungle Bob, with huge motor and classics chops, is also within striking distance. QS will have a lot of cards to play Sunday.

Race is quietly going really well for Porte. No issues so far and GvA is perfect rider to defend yellow until Tuesday over these stages, taking all the pressure off Porte.

TDF cobble stage (with quite a few doozies sectors such as Mons en Pevele) should really shred things. You have all your big hitter classics guys, too, though some may be on babysitting duties.

And after the race, World Cup! I better get enough beer and cheese for all this

Tejay has been solid for Porte. They really need him to handle the cobbles and get into the hills with him. The Jungle could pick up some time, yes.
Phil Gil in yellow soon?

Well, when you really only have one card to play, you put it down and see what happens. Good for him.

Sucks for TD, but overall a great stage. Thomas looks good, and he's got himself, and his team car up to 2nd position which is huge for the cobbled stage.

I think Bora and Sky really rip that stage. Bora has a two fold interest in being at the front and they have essentially a full classics squad. QS similarly has a stacked squad for the cobbles and will be stage hunting. Sky will have a plan and you know they want to be at the front to try and create separation. There will be a few contenders who will loose minutes on that stage.

Speaking of only 1 card to play, Toms used his perfectly by gambling to take on last KOM points while tired from being in break yesterday. Cruel irony is he took the jersey off Dion Smith, who’d pulled even on penultimate KOM climb. They were teammates on the Hincapie team 3 years ago.

Sagan didn’t contest the scraps—too blown or not worth the energy for a couple points with sprint stage tomorrow and cobble showdown? No days off for him until Monday.

That kind of surprised me as well. The group he was with 150 from the line wasn't fully stretched out single file so if he did have something left in the tank he could have possibly moved up 2-3 places which would have been 4-6 points. Probably not worth it though if it meant digging too far deep and he looked gassed regardless. He already got 11 more points than Gaviria for being there at the end.

He's got a decent lead on Gaviria right now, but looking ahead there are not too many more stages that have Sagan written all over it from a point scooping perspective. Possibly stage 9 on the cobbles, and maybe Stage 15 if he can get into the break and take max points at the intermediate. But all the other stages are going to be GC driven or have a flat finish that should be a full field sprint. Given the flat stages are 50 points, it wouldn't take much for Gaviria to pull back 60-80 points (or more) on Sagan on the remaining 5 flat stages. If Gaviria stays on form, this could get interesting.

There is no way Sagan is getting beat for green. On flat stages, he is good for a top 5 finish and on the non flat stages, when the rest of the sprinters are in the groupetto, Sagan is battling in the front and getting points.

I agree with you...but...

Take a real close look at the stages that are left, and see how many opportunities are left when Sagan will be there at the end to contest the stage win and the sprinters will be left behind.

Now take a look at how many stages are likely to be a field sprint. Given that Gaviria has beaten Sagan every time (including at the ToC), the point loss potential is significant. Each time Gaviria wins and Sagan gets 2nd, Sagan gives up 20 points. If Gaviria wins and Sagan finishes 5th, he gives up 34 points.

So far the first 5 non TT stages have favored Sagan's style 3 to 2. That's why he has his 43 point lead. The rest of the stages favor Gavira more often then they favor Sagan. I still think Sagan wins Green...it's just that on paper Gaviria still has a decent chance. Sagan will either need to straight up beat Gaviria in a couple of the flat stages or hope that Cav/Kittel/Griepel/Demare show up and block out those 50 point opportunities.

In a couple of those non sprint stages, Sagan will be up there in the breakaway. He will get max int bonuses. Each one of those is 10-20 points over Gaviria.

Plus, I would favor Sagan over Gaviria on the cobbles on Sunday given that he is the Paris-Roubaix winner.

ASO did what they could to dethrone Sagan with points distribution of sprint stage vs finish like today. The great equalizer will be if he can stay consistent where Gaviria wins, then take points opportunisticly as he can. Big edge goes to Sagan and his GT experience.

Think Gaviria taking home green will be harder than pulling on Dan Martin’s jersey but not impossible if he keeps winning and has some luck. But based on past two days he’s only got a handful of opportunities to make count. Got to also wonder when the other sprint hitters are going to show up.

On the other hand, Gaviria has the winners of the Tour of Flanders, E3 Harelbeke, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Dwars door Vlaanderen, and La Fleche Wallone on his team. And Gilbert.

And Sagan has Oss and Burghardt.. More or less.

You know Quick-Step put a circle around this one in sharpie pen as soon as the course was announced, and they're gonna put whoever wants to win the stage through the Quick-Stop sausage grinder. Of course Sagan has gone through that grinder, and come out ahead a few times. But it's not automatic by any means.

Great point. That’s why I was intreagued by the sprint race more than the GC race. It’s turning out that both of them are pretty good so far.

Again...I agree with you based on past experiences. But look at the remaining stages and tell me which stages he's going to get max bonuses where Gaviria will get 0. I count stage 12...and maybe stage 15, but my guess is that everyone and their mom will want to be in the break for stage 15. I highly doubt stage 17 as that's likely to be full gas up the first cat 1 given the stage is only 65 km total. All the other stages have been set up where the intermediate sprint is well before the major categorized climbs. It was like this last year, but we didn't notice as much since Sagan was kicked out early...and we just assumed we would have smashed everyone for Green. He likely still would have since Kittel scooped up all the early points and then got time cut, but Sagan wouldn't have scooped up as many intermediate points as he has in the past if he finished the whole tour. As already mentioned above, the ASO is subtly changing the system (where they put the intermediate sprints and how many non mountain stages have a Sagan like finish) to make it harder for Sagan to win.

Before the tour started, I thought exactly as you did...then I looked at the stage profiles and I don't see this as a slam dunk unless Gaviria cracks. Which is very possible just like Kittel did.

ETA: The one thing I will give Sagan is that on the flat stages, like you said...he is consistently top 5...meaning if there are 5 flat stages left, he may not win any, but he's cashing significant points in each one. Other top sprinters may win more often on flat field sprints, but every once in a while they are a complete no show and get 0 points. I'm not sure if Gaviria can match that consistency in the 5 remaining flat stages, but so far he has when going heads up with Sagan. QSF also has the best team to support Gaviria...to prevent the no show possibility that some sprinters face when their team can't put them in the right position in the final 3 km.

jeeeeezus. when you put it that way ......



I think the Sky Train will have something to say. the rest of the teams will be in the cobble equivalent of the Groupetto.

I think 15,16,17,19 are all Sagan points. There is no way Gaviria is staying with Sagan on 15 over a category 2 climb. He is already falling back on 4’s and 3’s. I also think the intermediates in 8, 10, and 11 are Sagan advantage with sprints on the uphills or immediately after a punchy cat4. BTW, I can’t wait for Stage 11!!!!

Not only that, Sagan will surprise you with stages like today. We are all dissecting which of the climbers is gonna win today and here is Sagan grabbing 8th and getting points.

Just to further whip this dead horse, Gaviria is not a lock on flat stages. He really needs the massive lead out he's been getting and not all run ins are created equally.

Agree, today was a very fast finish. My thought is that Gaviria will fade over the tour due to the demands of this year. This first week is harder than normal and then you have some monster mountain stages. It's obvious and i know you know this, but that is why Sagan can lock up the green jersey, he does not fade over the course of the tour, often having his most inspired/daring stages in the last week.

Was thinking the exact same thing. Gaviria is already disappearing on stages with any bumps while Sagan hasn’t finished lower than 3rd other than TTT. That’s remarkable consistency, plus he has many more GTs under his belt and knows how to manage energy.

He is under a lot of pressure to win every sprint stage. Stage like today when Groenewegen takes max points, hurts him a lot.

And Groenewegen blew him away today. Tomorrow ought to be interesting.

Sagan definitely dodged a bullet by Gaviria not taking max points and he did well to bike throw for 3rd. Always amazed at his tenacity when the finish doesn't favor him. Keeping his point loss to 12 on this stage is a better than average day as it had potential for a 30+ point loss.

Are Cav and Kittel going to be complete no shows this tour? Kittel finished 118th today...dead last out of the peloton that came to the line and given the same time. Today was a very easy day for the peloton with the break caught so early...I can't imagine Kittel was "saving it for tomorrow."

Cavendish is done. Not sure if he knows it or not. Not only physically but also he seems to have developed PTSD. Today when he lost control of his bike just a tad, he stopped sprinting. He did the same thing a few stages ago. If you can’t be fearless in a sprint, you can’t sprint anymore.

Cav's crashed a lot, but that last one at MSR would probably give a lot of people PTSD.

Cav looks like he’s had enough of trading paint in sprints. Can’t really blame him with one hit after another. Boonen got to same point but was already a classics beast and had something to fall back on. Would Cav want to be last leadout man? Hard to see that. Back to the track with Wiggo?

Sort of wonder if Greipel is in same place.

Kittel, OTOH, has no such excuse. He looks lost out there and can’t find any groove. Shows how good a manager Lefevere is, and how good a choice he made with Gaviria.

Or maybe he has mental issues again. Didn’t he take a year off for that?

Love Greipel. He’s an atypical sprinter who can and will help his team when he can and will ride just for the joy of it. Cav will too, just doesn't have the same mass. He’s an all time great but it seems like it’s time to move on. He’d make a great color commentator with subtitles.

I think it shows just how important the team is for their sprinter. QS were strong leading out kittel a few years ago and he won a fair bit off of that. However Gaviria looks really damn strong your right.

As for cav he’s just not in form imo. Coupled with age he’s a fair bit off it. Last tour I thought Eddie boss was riding very well when he didn’t have cav to look after, maybe dimension data should see what they can do with haegan.

Griepel wasn’t far off it a few stages ago. I like the gorilla but he isn’t getting any younger either.
When you have Gaviria and groenwaegen etc coming through as young hungry sprinters the old dogs have to find another gear.

Who I find looks lost is dengenkolb. Maybe not an out and out sprinter, but since his crash with giant he hasn’t unfortunately been able to come back to form for Trek. Speaking of Trek they have rumoured to sign Porte for 2 years after this year. Starting to think trek likes the older studs in the twilight of their careers

Word in the peloton- diva. Lacks grit and not a team guy. Massive talent, obviously. When he's on he’s a phenom.

You can’t ride for QS without serious mental toughness. Knew of a talented young American rider they were pursuing and said rider’s agent said flat out no, they’ll chew you up and spit you out. They’re all Belgian business.

I’m taking Kittel today. DS apparently read him the riot act this morning. If he isn’t top 3 he may be sent packing.

The Grooner looks like a young Cav.
Nice battle from the gorilla.
Katusha should try to trade Zakarin for some cash and send the team home and save a few bucks.
Danny Boy has a history of being lazy in positioning. Blaming the victim, sort of. Sucks for him but he’ll ride aggressively in the mountains.

tony martin hasnt done much with katusha either, speaking of martins. Something up with that team

He has a crazy burst of speed; not even close again today.

Alrighty, the first battle royale is afoot. Uran and Porte might have the best supporting cast around them. I’m predicting Nibali, Uran and GT up front with the rest of the GC contenders giving up some time. Going out on a limb: Froome, Bardet and Quintana lose big.

Want to see Sagan win but imagine it’ll be a bit of negative racing up front if a small group forms. Hard to look past QS in that scenario. And does GvA ride or wait for Porte?

I do think Froome does fine on the cobbles, he is too calculated not to have a specific plan and be well prepared. I suspect GVA can ride for himself but will not have team support during the stage as most others will be with Porte, likely same for Sagan. Nibali and Valverde could be the really dangerous GC contenders who could make some moves tomorrow. At the end of the day it comes down to mechanicals and wind.

Gaviria and Griepel both relegated, not sure what i think about that? In the end Sagan benefits the most.

Wow...Looked like Gaviria had enough pop to win and pounce on Sagan going too early to gain massive points if Griepel hadn’t closed him off, but in the end I guess Sagan is the one who gains 30 points on Gaviria.

Maybe a little bit of retribution to Sagan for last years ruling against him?

Interesting to see Sagan not lock on Gaviria in the final 500. Gaviria was too far back just like yesterday, but Sagan seemed impatient. Which is unusual.

I felt like Griepel should have been entitled to his line. He wants Sagan’s slipstream, and given his position over Gaviria at the time, it should be his to claim.

Sagan did not have a choice, QS final leadout man pulled off and Sagan is on the front with 250 to go, not much of a choice at that point. Did not notice wind direction in the sprint, might have been a cross/head?

I think Greipel was fine overall after rewatching the sprint, not a perfect line but no clear drastic movement with clear danger, Gaviria should get the relegation per rules.

If it’s based just on the shouldering well, I thought that was racing. They both gave as good as they got, looked like.

Tomorrow will be QS getting someone up the road and then bing, bang, bong. A good day for the big dudes. Maybe Gaudin?

Which team benefits most from a big split in the groups? Some GC contender who is way down in time can jump up big.

Just saw that Bernal is riding the tour and is only 1 30 off GC. Geez. They’re loaded.

I’m not qualified to dispense advice or anything, but maybe ~155lb Gaviria should consider the merits of trying to push someone named The Gorilla off his line...

Also appears that Gaviria does best with a proper leadout while Groenwegen is better at dealing with a messy sprint, like Sagan.

Gaviria's antics are really getting to me. Dude needs to simmer down a few notches

I say GvA just go for it tomorrow. Dude is looking for a contract and has put his faith in the team by not linking up with anyone before hand. I don't think a stint in yellow will help his cause, but a stage win on a classics-type stage will (either attracting other teams or attracting a sponsor).

Call the winner for tomorrow now:

GvA, Sagan, Terpstra
Stuyven and Vanmarcke

I'd be happy to see Vanmarcke finally win something on the cobbles six years after his last cobbled victory

I thing Greipel got relegation for a different infraction than his tussle with Gaviria.

I’ve going with Calmejane or Fuglsang for the breakaway succeeding in a win tomorrow.

Looks like Tony Martin is out with broken vertebrae too.

Sagan, GvA, Gilbert
Degenkolb, Terpstra

Right, but what was Sagan doing in that position? His trademark is to follow the wheel of the favorite and either stay in the slipstream for a high finish, or come around if he can. He went away from that bread and butter, which I think had to do with the fact Gaviria was hanging so far back instead of 3rd or 4th wheel. I suppose if Sagan gets the setup wrong only 10% of the time, that’s still pretty darn good.

I think tomorrow is going to highly depend on what type of GC splits are made and who is motivated to keep the pressure on to expand or close those GC gaps while not contending for the stage. So hard to predict as there are multiple motives compared to a 1 day classic.

For my laziness, and or to continue the discussion, where in relation to the stage start/finish is all the pave sectors? Is this a back half of stage fireworks only type of setup?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

 
Profile of stage 9 with the pave sectors. They'll hit the first sector around 4:45 - 5am pacific. I'm waking up early for this one.

Thank you.....I hope this breaks up the race, just for the duleness that I think Sky/Froome has put on the Tour over the past few years (yes I know he's bringing in more fatigue from the Giro). I like it, and it seems it gives the other rides some "pop" beyond just the normal sprinter stages.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'm hoping it's a GT domestique big day out tomorrow, like the caddie's pool scene at Bushwood. These one day guys never get a real shot at a GT stage.

I'm going with Sep, Theuns, Lampaert. Gaudin? Hayman?

Why wouldn't these guys target this stage? Stuyven too. Benoot? Sep should be fresh.

QS- we know they're looking to kill it. Who will they put in the break? Yves L I guess. It comes back then PG goes, etc.

The make up of the break will be interesting. Teams with great one day guys with no reason to stay back. I can't see any other way this will play out. Wouldn't BMC be the only team to really chase to maybe keep yellow? If the break is stacked, it could stick.
What am I missing here?

It's been a hard first third of the tour.

I hope Sep has a good result. BTW, Benoot abandoned a few stages back.

I'm not sure Groenwegen has the choice to try a proper leadout. I don't think his instructions to the team are, "OK guys I want you to sort of out peter out and drift backwards without about 500m to go to so we don't create any sort of organized finale. Whatever you do, avoid trying to get on even terms with Richeze."

Sep says he’s committed to helping Uran so maybe it’s a matter of how stage unfolds. Phinney is there too.

gaviria appeared to be shouldering on his rear quarter, didnt understand why he was wasting time and energy executing that manuever, but still had plenty left to vault himself forward afterward. seemed gaviria was trying to make a point vs smartest tactic for a result

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http://www.PatGriskusTri.com USAT Certified Race Director
2024 Races: USAT State of CT Age Group Championship/State of CT HS Champs/ CT Club Championship - Sat June 15th (Oly/Du/Sprint) Hopkins Vineyard Tri at Lake Waramaug Saturday July 13th http://www.HopkinsVineyardTri.com

Very unlikely Sep will be in the running for a win, it’s all about keeping Uran with the other GC contenders. But you never know how the race unfolds. He’s riding strong though, he should have an excellent race, just hopefully not in the background.

Lampaert and Gaudin are also good picks

I think in the end the cream will rise. Just like how things happened in 2010 and 2014. You have one or two GC contenders taking a few minute over the others.

so Nibs then? perhaps that was his motivation for this year's classics work. he knows the not the climber of Froome and some others but he probably is the best bike handler. take a shot, hope for the best, head to the hills with a lead.

Shit. Porte down, collarbone, out. Damn, I feel for him. Wtf.......
Racing sucks.

aw ..... that's some shjt. life can be cruel.

Strong break with Gaudin and De Ghent but BMC will clearly ride as will QS. Meanwhile, SKY keeps putting money in the bank.
Sheeeeeeeeeeet.

Specialized's new Sagan commercial ... shjt, the dude is cool. and funny.

The one for the e-bike? I usually watch the ad-free Aussie version so I hadn’t seen any commercials this year until I went to watch my Dad (NBC feed). My mom has an e-bike and is oblivious to how much it helps her... we just about lost it during that ad!

uh, no, I hadn't seen that. HS!!!, that's funny. The guy has the best smirk ever. I wish I was cool enough to smirk like that.

I was talking about this one:

shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiijjjjjjjjjjjjjjt partner

poor Porte... That's a small group on the front now. Watch out for Dumoulin

Sky looking solid but a lot of HP not far behind.

Sucks for Porte, guy can’t catxh a break. Imagine it’s all in for GvA now.

Well, there goes my Terpsta pick

not many BMC riders left on the front

good job that EF is stitching this back together. one name we haven't mentioned is that of Oliver Naesen

OK, that is hilarious, and in a way only one guy can actually do something like this. Thumbs up!

Surprised how big the Peloton still is.

Tejay... just can’t keep it together. At least they have GvA.

“Tejay crashed. Hit it G.”

Bout time the classics beasts come out to play.

Team Sky might well run out of HP when it really counts. Been doing a lot of time on front.

Sky has a has a bit of a problem staying on their bikes, but it hasn't burned them yet.

...and Landa down.

Living to his word. If he bridges Uran, he's my hero.

yeah. finally a world class commercial emanating from the cycling world. very clever. sagan's star just got yet brighter.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

They don't seem to be far behind and Sep knows what he's doing. The biggest problem is the guys going for the stage win keeping the pace up - Sagan totally looking like he's about to blow this apart.

Suprisingly Quintana has consistently had the best positioining of any GC guy, except maybe Geraint.

Fantastic teamwork by EF. All in for the TTT chase.

Replay of 2015 Roubaix here: Lampaert got away with GvA late, with Degenkolb bridging up. That trio didn't stay away though, b/c Degenkolb would win the sprint, but GvA has a reason to ride here

also, if Degenkolb has to drive this thing with 15 km left, he also exerts more energy, which would sap his sprint

Lead 3 getting quite the moto pace through that section. Despicable. At least they were getting blasted with dust I guess.

Sagan might have missed the boat. Fatigue showing?

Those guys are off to the races.

EF too far behind - all about limiting time losses now.

Looking promising for Degenkolb.

EF too far behind - all about limiting time losses now.[/quote]
Yeah. I think they can declare victory if they can get to the Landa group.

"tiny little Spanish climbers"

thanks Jens, LMAO
quite Hans und Franz

good call

Degenkolb's sprint way too strong. GvA never managed to get out of Degenkolb's slipstream

He was not going to be denied. Trek having a solid TdF.

Good on Trek and Degenkolb. As much as I don't like Trek (don't think I could ever overlook what they did during the whole LA thing), they did Degenkolb a solid. They trusted to have him on the roster despite 2 years in the wilderness, and now Trek has a marquee opportunity for advertising.

Did you see that monkey go flying off Degenkolb’s back?

Yeah, not a Trek or DG fan, but watching him in tears in the interview it's pretty hard not to be a fan for a few minutes.

I’m glad for him and Trek got the win. The past is whatever, sport can’t afford to lose another major sponsor.

GT looks set to take jersey off GvA Tuesday.

Great stage overall, very entertaining, somewaht surprised GVA did not try and early attack. Degenkolb found the one and only sprint he can win, honestly i think he is more of a classics rider than people give him credit for. Degenkolb needed this win. Sagan did too much and was boxed in when the move went, nothing he could really do. He was shutting down a lot of attacks the last 50k clearly helping Majka as the rest of Bora was absent in the end. I know Majka typically fails in the mountains but he has done well so far, no big issues, potential podium this year? When Gilbert attacked then flatted i think that was the move Sagan wanted to go with. Good late maove by Sagan to distance Gaviria, that was a huge effort to split the field. Kudos to Gilbert to understand the importance of trying to take points away from Sagan.

QS has to be the biggest looser of the day, they are built for this and could not come away with a win or shuttle Gaviria into position for the sprint.

Word on the street is Porte has no broken bones or significant medical issues, needs to observe rule #5 in my opinion, that is why Froome has 6 grand tour wins and he has zero. Heck, Dan Martin made the front group today!!

I rule.

I managed to avoid all spoilers, and just watched. What a stage, so much drama. Not for me, though, since I obviously knew who was going to win a week ago.

Love seeing the GC guys racing their bikes on the cobbles.

Non-displaced right clavicle fracture...

Kudos to Craddock for surviving the bumps with his injuries.

Ok, thanks, makes more sense. He could possibly target worlds with great form and freshness. I truely feel for Porte, i thought he would give the best challenge to Froome and make for an exctiting battle all the way to Paris.

Edit: looking at the power files on strava today was blistering, around 27.5 for the front group, classics type power outputs coming into and on the pave. There was no sitting in today.

Let me just remind you of my pick for today, a few posts up:
Sagan, GvA, Gilbert
Degenkolb, Terpstra

Super impressive day for all the spindly GC guys, Porte notwithstanding. We’re it not for bad luck Uran would have been right there too.

Now into the mountain stages and not needing to tune in until last 15k.

Kudos.
That was a baller first 9 stages.
No one has laid a glove on Sky. They’re always at the front of the race yet rarely work as they’re not looking for stages. They seem to run tires that do not flat and they don’t hit the deck. And they have cool team cars. They probably get all the local chicks too.
Who else has a legit shot at it now? Don't make me root for Valdbag.

Technically Froome has gone down twice (more of an out-of-control dismount today), and got lucky both times.

I also don't see great team strength. Today Thomas and Sky were entirely alone up front for the important part of the race. Luke Rowe was next closet at 12 minutes back at the finish.

Movistar had Erviti and Amador to bail out Landa, which means 3/4 of their team was near the front all day.

Dumoulin had Andersen and Theuns.

Yates had Hayman and Impey.

Naesen has been unreal for Bardet.

But if Froome had been on the ground for 40 seconds instead of 5 seconds, Movistar could have gone all-in and Sky couldn't have done a damn thing about it.

Now that I've said this, I'm sure Sky will throw down a perfect back-breaking climbing train in the mountains.

In fairness, there were a lot of crashes early and Sky rode strong at the front one the shit show began keeping Froome and Thomas out of trouble. You can say there weren’t there at the end when things “could have” mattered or you could say they were at the front early when it did matter.

And responding to the above post...Sky went down 4x today. Bernal, Kwiatkowski, Froome, and the guy who went down in front of Froome and took him out. Looked like GvA actually rode over Froome’s bike...he’s lucky his bike didn’t break as a bike change would have really complicated things.

to be more specific, BMC and QS have had reason to work, chase......Sky stays out of trouble

missed a lot of the bedlam of yesterday but if Sky went down like that and stayed more or less in the front of the race then that's good on them and illustrates the kind of team they have.........larger point is that they're intact and ready to dominate this......which sucks, to me anyway........all due respect

only way to way find out how dinged up kwia, moscon, and bernal are after those crashes is to attack early and often tomorrow. problem is, how banged up is everyone else - dan martin? landa? it would be nice to see tjvg go for the early break to add to the pressure of the team trying to control things - which i would think must be sky with G in virtual yellow.
i sure hope teams are willing to take some shots tomorrow, but i understand the urge to hesitate after all the crashes, the unknown feelings after a rest day, the unknowns of the first extended climbs. i'd love to see teams with 2-3 cards to play to put some danger men in the early break (kruiswick? landa?).....

With 2 summit finishes to follow after tomorrow, I'm expecting the GC riders to be fairly conservative. Especially as you say with all the crashes yesterday and the rest day today. Would be a good day for somebody like Barguil to go for a stage win, but he's still close enough on GC that he wouldn't be given a long enough leash.

I'm expecting some relatively unknown riders to get in a breakaway, which will be hauled in on Col de Romme when the Sky train tests everybody's legs. Might see a few losing time if they're feeling it from crash or rest day. Probably not a lot of fireworks, but will be interesting just to see how everybody's form is on the mountains. Nibali has been unusually quiet to date, might see an attack from him tomorrow. I think the descent from Colombiere to the finish is fairly straightforward, so probably not an opportunity for a good descender like Froome or Nibali to get away. Valverde the most likely stage winner, though Thomas might also want to take yellow in style. Sky have been pretty clear that Plan A is still Froome, but I think they'll protect Thomas as well for as long as they're able to, and being in yellow might just prolong that point even more.

Didn’t start watching till 4-5 years ago soncan you clarify what Trek did during the LA era besides association? I don’t get the feeling that the same vitriol is directed to Nike.

Initially, Ochowicz on Porte: "“His collarbone isn’t broken. There are no broken bones. He’s been to hospital in Cambrai and is now on his way to Annecy. His bag is waiting for him there.”

https://twitter.com/.../1018508375825485825

I understood that as Richie saying "Fuck this" and Ocho responding "Fuck you, pack your shit. Pussy"

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

That is the same thing I read, and interestingly I have read mixed views on if is or is not broken.

Anyone figure out what happened with Porte crash? Was a spectator trying to cross the road? The whole thing was unusual and I’m surprised there is no discussion on this.

I would agree, but I’m wondering how some of the other GC team directors are thinking in terms of Froome’s fitness. On paper, Stages 11 and 12 are better opportunities to use energy and create time gaps, but do you make all three days hard to see if the Giro starts showing up in Froome’s legs?

Even if you can’t create time gaps on Froome, if he shows weakness (maybe dangling during a few surges) while Thomas continues to ride strong...maybe you can stir the pot in terms of Sky’s GC leadership?

Easier said than done though. While a few of the Sky domestiques hit the deck, a lot of the other GC domestiques had to work hard yesterday as well. Sucks that Landa went down and made half his team drop back for a long chase. Looked like Quintana and Valverde were very comfortable yesterday, and their team also looked strong up to the point Landa crashed. The had the numbers in the main pack just like Sky...except they didn’t really work at the front saving energy...until they were forced to.

Also curious if Movistar dropping back for Landa will pay off. They did well to close the gap to 7 seconds...very close to ST...but Landa also had a huge pain face on seemingly struggling to sit on his teammates wheels as they chased back.

Sky's position sort of neutralizes Movistar's, meaning from a long way out domestiques control tempo as usual but then GT marks Landa and Froome Quintana, the closest threats on time respectively. That said, curious how riders like Nibali, Yates and Dumoulin who came through in tact respond to test Sky's condition. Make it as hard as possible to try and crack or soften Froome up.

Nibali will certainly put in a few digs and see if he can spot any weakness. Not sure Dumoulin has either the inclination or ability to do that though, he's more suited to steady tempo than attacking on the climbs.

Would love to see Landa and Quintana tag teaming and putting in some big attacks, but fear that team politics may have them marking each other more than working together to crack Sky. Plus Quintana has been disappointingly conservative in the last few Tours.

I hear you. I don't think my "not a fan" reaches the point of vitriol. And my critiism of Degenkolb is purely on some of his racing tactics, and wholly unrelated to Trek/Lance.

But I just wasn't a fan out of how when Lance was trying to destroy people's careers, Trek looked the other way then had nothing to say once all those people were found to have largely been telling the truth all along. Tons of bike companies indirectly sponsor(ed) doping. Sponsoring destruction of individual livelihoods crossed a line with me.

But that new Madone is amazing. And I secretly lust after the Speed Concept even though it's pretty old now. So I may have to sell out my cherished, smug self-righteousness at some point.

But I'll never wear a damned pair of Nikes.

Looks like Toms Skujiņš's alleged motor-doping has been resolved

http://www.stickybottle.com/...s-wheel-tour-france/

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Can someone please explain to me why GvA can't win? Is it that he cannot climb with everyone else?

Basically, yes. He's a slightly heavier guy (listed as 74kg when most of the climbers will be at least 5kg lighter than that, and many of them 10kg), and his engine is more suited to shorter bursts of power. He can get over the shorter climbs but when it comes to the high Alps he'll drop off at some point.

Some guys his size have dropped kg and sacrificed some top end power to become all rounders. Dumoulin is one, Wiggins was another. Maybe he could do that, but if he doesn't want to because he prefers classics and stage hunting then that's also a great career. Some have suggested Sagan could convert himself to a GC rider if he wanted to but he's having far too much fun winning green jerseys, world championships and classics!

It's just about possible that GVA hangs on to yellow tomorrow if the climbers are all taking it steady. He will lose it by the end of Wednesday for sure.

GVA is an exceptional cyclist, in particular one day races. He has a unique blend of endurance and raw power over a wide range of power durations. But, this power comes at a cost, weight. Granted we are talking 15 pounds over froome but close to 30 pounds heavier than the pure climbers. The long climbs at steep gradients are pure w/kg and he has a few too many kgs to hang on. Furthermore, you have to specifically target and train for grand tours. You cannot train for both the classics and winning a grand tour, they are too different. Nibali might be the only grand tour cyclist who can on occasion compete in the classics, Wiggins is another example, but Wiggo had a track background so clearly a lot of top end power.

Edit: I do think GVA might be able to hang on to yellow tomorrow, he is a good climber, and just might make it through tomorrow. Stage 11 it is over for GVA.

agreed. GVA isn't dead yet. he's a great bike rider. plus, with Porte gone and TjV looking fragile, BMC may give Greg more resources than originally planned.
its quite conceivable that he could keep yellow through Stage 10's "descent" finish.





however, there is no way he survives these finishes. a guy like Quintana could put two to five minutes on Greg at the finish.

If GVA can crest the Col de Romme with the GC group, I think he hangs on to yellow and BMC will help him on the last climb and descent of the Col de la Colombiere to help make that happen.

I think tomorrow is likely to just be a feeling out and softening up stage for the GC. Small GC gaps might form on the last climb, but I don't know if any of the GC guys will be fully invested to go full gas on the descent to maintain or increase those gaps. If so, that will help GVA (assuming he gets dropped to begin with) to either chase back on or limit his losses to Thomas.

I'm kind of hoping we see early action though that would spit out GVA early. Not because I don't care for GVA...simply because I want to see someone test Froome's form every chance they get.

there are of course collarbone breaks and then there are big breaks and displacements...i watched it as it happened early and the team doc was on it fast, really pressing on it and examining and it was a little unclear and it took him a while to sit him down......I was hoping it was negative and that he'd at least try to get back on, and truthfully, I kept thinking he would......Martin sure has taken some big hits and kept going but riding hard with a broken clavicle is another level...Tyler Hamilton? or was that his B sample twin?

Listened to the Lance podcast and that was the first time I had heard Porte is leaving BMC for another team after the tour (or whenever his current contract is up...guessing August 1st). I don't follow pro cyclists contracts, so I didn't even know Porte's BMC contract was expiring...but I guess that explains some of the bitterness in his GMs tweet.

Everybody's BMC contract is expiring....that team in it's current form is history.

Didn't know BMC was pulling sponsorship. But seems just today that CCC is going to pick up the team next year, with GVA heading the team and focusing on classics. So there's at least one rider who seems to have a contract in place.

BMC's sponsorship is dead and word is they'll be bike supplier to Dimension Data next year.

New team is building around GvA with no GC aspirations. Sounds like an iteration of current QS squad for classics and stage hunting.

Porte has signed with trek for two years. Trek likes guys in the twilight of their careers

Strange to think of Porte as in the twilight of his career when through a combination of bad luck and bad days he simply doesn't seem to have had the highlights he should (yet?). Some decent one week wins, but in the GTs nothing - couple of top tens but no podiums, not even a stage win barring the TTT last week. Hopefully he can follow Cadel Evans who finally got his GT wins at a similar stage of his career (though earlier was arguably more thwarted by dopers than anything else)

yep. He is 33 i believe?

Yup, same age as Cuddles was when he won the Giro, then he was 34 when he won the Tour. There's a fair few Tour winners aged 32-34, very few past that and the oldest was 36 (and that was waaaay back in 1922). Records are there to be broken of course, and there's always Chris Horner's Vuelta win to look to for inspiration (albeit that win should have an asterisk next to it in many people's view), but have to assume that if Richie doesn't win a Tour in the next couple of seasons then it's pretty unlikely he ever will.

In cycling the same guys take part in multiple types of races but they serve different roles and have different targets depending on their strengths, weaknesses, what else they're doing that season, their team strategy, etc.....
It's not just a bunch of guys trying to do the same thing.

Who is the best road cyclist in the world? I assume most people would say either Chris Froome or Peter Sagan. But they can't really be compared. Froome races grand tours for general classification. Sagan does one day races like the monuments and the world championships and he also rides for stage wins and the points jersey in the grand tours. You won't see Sagan winning time trials or mountain top finishes, and you won't see Froome contesting many flat bunch sprints. Their skills overlap, but they're only occasionally in direct competition.

Victory in the grand tours is dependent first and foremost on ability to climb. The lightweight climbers may give up a little in terms of power to drag, but not too much and they can survive very well on fast flat stages by drafting. The really fast guys on flatter terrain can't do the same on the mountains where they lack a little in terms of power to weight and drafting is massively less useful. So GVA, will not be able to keep up with the real climbers for long. If the climbers play it safe for a while he might manage to keep up, but if they go for it, he'll be out the back in short order.

Looking good for break to make it and GvA to stay in yellow. Calmejane ftw...

Or to put it in a few words. He's too heavy to be quick enough in the mountains.

It had already been put in a few words. My answer is intended as a more complete explanation of what's going on to give some context for the uninitiated. I think it's fairly accurate and about as simple as I can make it. You disagree?

When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......

Great ride from him today though, always good to see riders result respecting the yellow jersey. Hell of a ride from Alaphilippe as well!

that is a good summary. well said. I love this


remember stage 11 of the 2016 TdF? there was a crazy crosswind and Sagan and Bodnar went off the front. Froome stunned everyone and went with him, as did Geraint Thomas. boom, the Green and the Yellow sprinting for a stage win. that was awesome.

Yep, you're not kidding. GVA gets much respect for today!

Anyone here doing the Velon Fantasy TDF?

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Great ride by both of them. Guess it's foolish to now bet again Alaphilippe in a break. Like Sagan, he has more patience and tactical noir. Look out.

Perfect day for a breakaway, non mountain top finish, early sprint point, generally an "easy" day. Uran is clearly done, Valverde was getting gapped off today, he will be done tomorrow. Majka/Zakarin also getting dropped today. If you get dropped today you are for sure not hanging on tomorrow.

Tomorrow will likely be the first test, 108km day, with a tough climb out of the gate. If your sky, tomorrow is the perfect day for a serious attack early, its either up or down all day. Conversely, Sky might simply control the pace all day to set up Thursdays final climb as their moment to take over the race. I do suspect that Sky would rather have Froome take the lead then deal with Thomas taking the lead. With the current situation they are effectively down one rider until this is sorted out. Alpe d'Huez is a perfect climb for Froome and the more i think about it he will likely target that climb. Thomas can often fake it for two weeks, but then fades.

Agree on all points. I'll bet Froomey will show us what he's got on Thursday.

I think even if Thomas was level or just behind Froome in the standings it would make sense to protect him and keep him in contention as long as possible, unless or until a situation arises where he needs to bury himself for Froome. You never know when somebody is going to crash out, and Froome has the Giro in his legs. Will be interesting to see whether Thomas fades, I know he has in the past but he's also had to work pretty hard in the past and has raised his stage race form to a new level this year.

Great ride by GvA. Only caught the last 22 km, but will go back as I'm interested to see how he got into the break and how he rode as the break dissolved and Alaphilippe got away.

Looks like Uran is done and dusted for the GC.

Kudos to Martin for being a competitor and making sure the lead group didn't let Uran, Zacharin, and Jungels get back as the crested the final climb.