Tough to bet against Sagan if it comes down to a messy sprint. His best bet might be full gas on the Poggio--especially after what he did in Tirreno--dropping Gaviria and a group committing. Some teams will be happy to settle for a podium and might become allies for Sagan.

But my bet is QS and Sagan neutralize each other, opening the door for someone to slip away. I think it's Bling's day, with Degenkolb and Eddy Boss also in mix.

Tough to bet against Sagan if it comes down to a messy sprint. His best bet might be full gas on the Poggio--especially after what he did in Tirreno--dropping Gaviria and a group committing. Some teams will be happy to settle for a podium and might become allies for Sagan.


It was interesting to what Sagan said this week in an interview regarding attacks on the Poggio - the wind is key. That a headwind going up the Poggio, tends to neutralize attacks. It's these little nuances/details that you can't really pick up watching the race.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

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you are free to incentivize things however you'd like for this hypothetical pick'em league, but point being, you havent set up said league, and we are going with the format i set up two years back and tracked through two entire spring classics seasons.

If i'd have my way, i'd do 7 total picks: California style podium (scoring if the rider finishes top 5) + 2 truly outside picks (for podium positions only). Picks are then weighed by the number of people who have selected these riders, so if everyone picks Sagan to win, then those people get rewarded with a pittance. If your outsider (who was picked by only one other person) finishes on the podium, you get a larger multiplier. But it's all a moot point.

As a tangent, both Demare and Bouhanni are wildcards. Doubtful Demare would have prevailed without the crash


I like this one, but you jinxed your boy by picking him to finish 1st :p


As for me,

Sagan, Matthews, and Cobrelli
Kristoff and Degenkolb

I'd love to see Eddy Boss do well, but I feel like he hasn't quite shown anything yet this year to say he's a contender.


Podium: Sagan, Degenkolb, Ewan

WC: Alaphillipe, D. Van Poppel

Degenkolb, Sagan, GVA

wc: Swift, Clarke

i know nothing i.e. my picks but hoping its on youtube live

ach - didn't remember Swift had been on podium twice so not really a wc
replace him with ...? Felline

haha nevermind

Well fairly typical so far, 71 k left and the break has a 2:33 gap.

this is similar to the stage of Nascar spectating after you have downed six cans of American swine swill and immediately passes out. In other words, still nothing to see.

I'll try to get a bit of work done in the mean time. Another 40 k to go until bottom of il Poggio, so about 45 minutes.

Sagan sitting too much to the front at this juncture of the race

I think he is just being careful not to get caught out, he is strong enough he can probably risk the extra energy expenditure. Time will tell. Still not hard enough to eliminate a bunch sprint.

wow, this is good

Kiwat will be dangerous

Kwiatkowski might nip this; i really don't want to see that

Tacky riding by Kiwat, took one weak pull the entire ride, then again what else would he have done? Sagan just went a little too early.

good GD, that was awesome! Holy Cow.

hat tip to Kwi, but if you like bike racing, you gotta love Peter Sagan. wow

at least at wasn't Alaphilippe...

Damn, Sagan started sprinting from way too far out. Think he could have held on if he started at 150-175m as opposed to 225-250m like he did

Kwiatkowski should be commended for having the reserves to close that gap, but damn...

Sagan needed to pull a Cancellara and just sit up, force them to ride. He is great for bike racing....he actually races his bike.

agree - gotta love the go big or go home moves PS does

Nah, they would have gotten caught and he already played his hand with the attack uphill so he would have been toast against fresh legs in the bunch sprint later.

He either should have started the sprint later or, knowing the gap, soft-pedal and force kwiatek to open up first -but that's risky and he probably didn't know he still had about 5 seconds in the bank. I can't blame the two for sitting on...Had they each done one extra legitimate pull Sagan would have won. As it is he only lost by what, half a wheel? Feed is off so I didn't see the photo.

Good stuff...Bummed he dragged another guy into first but that's racing.

Sagan did what he had to do to give him his best chance once he realized a shit-ton of sprinters were still there on the Poggio.
He chose tired legs vs Kwiato and Alaphalippe or fresher legs vs a dozen world class sprinters with MUCH stronger teams.

What, talent and balls - yet another race that just makes my jaw drop with amazement how lucky we are to be able to watch Peto race. Already a legend.

Also, Kwiato did nothing wrong in not taking the wind at the bottom of the Poggio- of course he's not going to pull...there's nothing questionable regarding his tactics.
Lastly, how about Alaphalippe hanging in there? And CONTESTING the sprint? Future world champ, possibly? Love that kid's panache.

Good stuff...Bummed he dragged another guy into first but that's racing.


It's the way it is!

A great win for Kiwatowski and MASSIVE chapeau to Peter Sagan. A great illustration of how you can really be the hero and story of a bike race, but still not win! If Sagan did not light it up on the final ramp up the Poggio, it most likely would have been a bunch finish, which anyone of 10 guys could have won.

Sagan asked for some help with 400-500 to go, but they did not come around, and he knew the peleton was closing so no real time to cat-and-mouse. His fate was kind of sealed at that point, but Sagan still almost got the win!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Sagan pulled the last 1000m before sprinting. That's probably 80 seconds during which Sagan rode at VO2max while Kwiatek drafted at threshold power.

This is the third time Sagan lost of Kwiatek in a sprint, the others being 2014 Strada Bianche and 2016 E3

Sagan did what he had to do to give him his best chance once he realized a shit-ton of sprinters were still there on the Poggio.
He chose tired legs vs Kwiato and Alaphalippe or fresher legs vs a dozen world class sprinters with MUCH stronger teams.

A wise choice. Have to make those choices on-the-fly and in the flow. Had Sagan NOT made that move it would have been that main group of 30 -40 finishing together, and yes much stronger pure sprinters with help in the bunch. Sagan made the right move at the right time!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

damn, what a messed up sport, but everyone knows who the king of the jungle is........watching Kwiatkowski I kept thinking oh no, he's got a bunch left and Sagan is just punching himself out, hanging on, what a ride... he made that race

....and think about the guys who didn't/couldn't get on Sagan's move.....there was a moment where Alaphillipe was looking back and shook his head as if to say, damn, I want to work to make this stick but they won't let me....it's always so close at MSR with the main group chasing, so tough to sit on and wait for Gaviria.....I thought Alaphilipe might take an early flyer after the Poggio descent