Fleck wrote:
Attention now shifts this week to Milan-San Remo - the longest of the classics at almost 300km and one of the trickiest races of the year to predict and handicap!
I always find it a fascinating race - typically not much happens before they reach the Cipressa with about 30k to go, but then from there it can be high-drama all the way to the finish line with the outcome in doubt right to the line.
Both the Cipressa and the Poggio the other climb that comes with just 6km are not that long, but with nearly 300km of racing in the legs, they can really take a toll on riders. There is then the tricky twisting and turning descent of the Poggio right into San Remo and the about 2km drag-race from there to the finish. What's interesting is due to unusual nature of the race - in the finale mixing it up you will usually have a mixture of contenders still in the game - pure sprinters, strong-men and all-rounders, and even some climber/GC types all going for it. That's why it's such a hard race to predict. Just because, say a Mark Cavendish a pure sprinter and former winner makes it to the finale, is no guarantee of a win if it does come down to real sprint at the end. Cav like the other pure sprinters will often have no real lead-out, and they have WAY more miles in their legs then they are used to - in other words is ability to really sprint they way he is used to is diminished significantly.
More recently, it's been more of a race for the strong-men-all-rounder types - and Fabian Cancellara's stellar record here of making it to the finale regularly and being on the podium a number of times and winning it out-right one year is a testament to that.
In that light - an on-form Peter Sagan, has to be a good pick for the win. He has the fitness to go 300K, can mix-it up and win from various scenarios, and has great bike handling skills to master the descent of the Poggio (or last year avoiding a crash in the final 1K). Sagan for the win!
Who do you like?
The big problem with this race is the finish line is 1k too far, if they moved it up it would be a much more dynamic race and Cancellara would probably have 4 wins. That last 1k is just enough to neutralize any late attacks and often the one who dares does not win in this race as Cancellara is all to aware.
Last year was incredibly slow towards the finish and i suspect that will not happen again, teams like Sky, UAE, and BMC need the race to be very hard. Additionally Sagan wants a hard finish so Bora also has a vested interest to drop the pure sprinters and hurt the more dynamic sprinters such as Gavaria, Kristoff, Demare, Degenkolb and company. I don't think Cav is seriously racing this spring, he has stated multiple times he is trying to take it easy and recover from last year. Cav has to be in peak form and weight to not get dropped.
Dan Loyd, commenting on Sagan, suggested that he has developed even more as a rider this year evidenced by his ability to hang with the GC riders yesterday while GVA/Kiwat/Boonen were all 1+ minute back. I think Sagan's ability to hang on steeper climbs and sprint alongside Gavaria makes him the most dangerous rider for MSR, but Sagan does not want Gavaria/Demare/Kiristoff on his wheel. With all this preamble here is what i think develops:
Sky has to go long, possibly Thomas goes on the Cipressa to set up Kiwat, similar to last year. Gilbert decides to make a move, drawing out a few other attackers, at this point its strung out going down the Cipressa. Up the poggio the pace is extremely hard, some attacks and Sagan gets on the coat tails, pushes the descent. Reduced bunch sprint of 10-12 riders, main field right behind.
Sagan
GVA
Valverde (why not)