Funny you mentioned that, I was just talking to OB Saturday (her old coach) about those specific tactics that they implemented to get her to learn to read the group, attack in different ways other than just riding off the front. They would deep dive sessions just going over tactics. And again at that level, every coach and athlete knows every scenario that is going to play out. They have scenarios 1-20 and how they'll react. Again you can look at a start list and the terrain and know within probaly ~90% certainity how the race will play out to T2. Everyone knows Knibb needs a small gap and/or to ride the run out of some of the key favorites to win a medal. I think the good news is that Knibb is closer to running stronger than she was when she came back to senior elite level post college. So the "gap" she may need now may be doable on 20s, etc. A few years ago I would have guessed that would have needed to be a 1 min gap to think she's going out run the runners. Do I think she gets a gap? Probaly not, but I just think the gap she needs is somewhat doable as she's improved her run.

So again this is where if I'm kinda an USAT PTB......let's use the resources we currently have in the sport. Let's use Spivey and KZ (or Kasper) to play some tactics that actually may help Knibb get to T2. Putting GJ in the race when you know that she wont come back if it's not together in T2 is almost a "waste" (of course if she AQ's that's her spot).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Knibb should be praying Duffy comes back fit and healthy, could be the key to both medaling in Tokyo, it wouldn't be easy, and id bet against it, but them two gapping the rest and coming off the bike with a decent enough lead to podium?

Even if they can't gap the rest she'll have someone to take turns with of equal bike who wants to shred everyone else's legs for the run.

I think there is a scenario where Knibb can win Paris that doesn’t involve attacking a small or medium group and getting away solo. I think there are a variety of reasons why it’s hard to get away from a group in triathlon, some physiological and some psychological. But as we’ve seen at certain times in the past, certain combinations of people at the front of the bike can turn the race attritional, and that strongly favors Knibb. In a hard bike ride the only people I would say that Knibb doesn’t have the possibility to outrun are Potter and Beaugrand.

First thing I think needs to happen is Knibb needs to be close to the front leaving T1. She also probably needs GTB and Duffy to be up front with her. Possibly someone like Lindeman would be useful too. Beaugrand could be there, but Potter can’t be. They could have a few sandbags even. Out of a smallish group with some strong riders (who also don’t want to see Beaugrand) Beaugrand could get dropped and they could stay in front of Potter. With the injury history from GTB and Duffy, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to predict that they might suffer on the run. They might even come in extra swim and bike fit and motivated to be off the front with Knibb. Of course the Brits could fuck that all up by telling GTB to sit in unless Potter is in the group. That would be lame and she might just get out there and do what she wants anyway. idk. All this to say, I think there are still a lot of majorly different ways the race can play out and there are multiple ways to win despite a bit of a lame bike course.

You're dismising too many good runners in this scenario, in a really hard bike, GTB and Duffy are the two that immediately spring to mind that will outrun Knibb, GTB has already came back and shown good run form, Duffy still has a huge question mark over her. Waugh on last seasons form, Lombardi, Tertschs run has gone up a notch and Lindemann and maybe Coldwell if she's selected.

Waugh on last seasons form, Lombardi, Tertschs run has gone up a notch and Lindemann and maybe Coldwell if she's selected. //

Yes all that is correct, but you keep indicating that Knibb is not capable of out running these ladies. She already did one in the test event, and she is young and certainly has improved from then, where Potter and CB just barley out ran her...And guess what, if the ride ends up being super hard and surgey, it will be Knibb most likely to be able to run better in that scenario. And also guess what, she is the one that can make it be that way too...

I believe she would love to be in a break with Duffy, Kingma, and perhaps Spivey and a few others that are not named Potter and Cassandra. All the rest I give her an even money shot at out running, even GTB and Lindeman. And both those ladies motivated would certainly help a break survive..At any rate, gonna be a great race regardless, and certainly things may happen we have not even considered here. almost always does....

Obviously a lot will be decided with Yoko. I think if Knibb is on form and podiums and no other US woman podiums, to me that's your answer. Go all in on the Knibb train. Besides, you already have every US athlete except GJ as a front pack athlete who can basically officially or unofficiaally domestique. But this is where not being an AQ means, they can dictate who makes the team and what their team orders are. But Spivey / KZ (or Kasper) could both be picked and do a great job in the front group. Of course other federations can counter, etc, but if your telling me what's the US's best chances....Knibb. Again I don't know that it'll end up working out, but every medal will come from the front group. So either you have to 1) beat the best runners in a heads up run race OR 2) put them in the hurt locker prior to the run. With a Knibb + US domestiques- that can atleast be a real shot. Again other feds can counter, but that to me is the best chance.

From what I saw from GJ's bike ability in the France indoor WC, she'll be lucky to even be 1 min behind in Yoko, so at some point- if you aren't in the front group in WTCS, I don't care what your run looks like, your not winning medals. 1 extra person in the front group for the US could be a real strength play.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Did he also share why she swapped him out for Lorang?

Can't see the US going in on a domestique scenario, would be worth it to get Gwen into T2 with enough of a chance to medal, but not much/enough to benefit Knibb.

There's potential he could come on ST to talk shop. There's a lot that goes into coaching athletes's at that level. Very rarely does an athlete stay with the same coach their entire career. As GJ's current coach once told me over beers:

Coaches are troughs for athlete's to come and graze and then go to the next one.

Another nugget from Joel Filliol:
-the moment you lose trust in the other person, you better end the relationship sooner rather than later. That's from the coach or the athlete side, it's sometimes very much a 2 way street with what either party will allow from the other person.

It's part of high performance. For context since Knibb post junior racing years- this is her 3rd coach at age 26. OB- Henderson- OB- DL


I also think it's really hard to coach athletes at the WTCS level that are from the same federations inside your private squad. There's just too much messiness that then comes into play. Obviously if your the federation paid coach (US doesn't really have 1 centralized "coach"; they sorta let the athlete's get whwoever they trust to coach them) then your coaching everyone, but if your a private coach, it's almost better to keep it 1 gender per federation in your squad. You can have different levels of athletes like WTCS level athlete and a "development" athlete, but if you have 2 US women going for basically the same spot; it's really really hard to keep everyone happy in that situation.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'll agree to disagree, if you have 25% of the front group all racing for 1 goal.....you best bet that can be an advantage. Again not saying other feds can't counter, but there's tons of things having 2 others riding for Knibb in front group can do.

Again if no one AQ's in Yoko- that certainly better be a damn discussion point. This is about winning medals and funding. When you can't AQ in 3 different chances, if your told to work for someone else- that's business.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

These girls runs are also going to improve though, it's not just Knibb who's developing, Lombardi is younger, Waugh, CB are about the same age, and Potter has developed as a triathlete at an incredible rate (so will be even better this year)

GTB despite injury and other issues is absolute peak age, so could even go up a level, it's going to be an exciting year for sure!

These girls runs are also going to improve though, it's not just Knibb who's developing,//

Right, but you seemed to indicate that all those ladies you mentioned were faster than Knibb, they are not. Well at leas they weren't the last time they all pitched up and raced fully tapered and rested at the test event. Yes they are all great runners, but sometimes I think Knibb just gets overlooked as some uber biker that is just going to get caught on the run by everyone. Fact is that all of the ladies minus Potter and CB, have to up their run games to try and beat Knibb, and that's after swimming at the very pointy end of the front pack and then riding watts they usually dont ever see..


Lets just hope everyone shows up healthy and ready, that gives us fans our best race to watch. And I agree with Brooks to some degree about the US domestic situation, but with a slightly different tactic. The more obvious one is to send Spivey and Katie into full drill mode with Knibb and whoever else will join in. But a more palatable tactic for the two ladies might just to interrupt any chase after a Knibb attack. Hopefully with a Duffy or Kingma that can help pull, but then just sit 2nd and 3rd wheel in any chase and make others go around. You just keep doing this over and over, which makes one person pulling too long and eventually they either give up, or a few burn a ton of matches chasing, all the while the two US ladies get pulled along, with just a few surges to get onto any attacks.


With this strategy, you hope Knibb(and group if one) gets their gap), and then the two ladies are much fresher than the rest because they kept their noses out of the wind the entire time. And both of those ladies are no strangers to surges and attacks, both known to have this as one of their strengths. Then they get to do their runs and let the chips fall for each, probably in better shape than if they had just race for themselves...But it would have to play out that way, the drilling the front group to death is gonna kill any run legs, but Knibb can survive that scenario quite well as we have seen before...

Lets just hope everyone shows up healthy and ready, that gives us fans our best race to watch. And I agree with Brooks to some degree about the US domestic situation, but with a slightly different tactic. The more obvious one is to send Spivey and Katie into full drill mode with Knibb and whoever else will join in. But a more palatable tactic for the two ladies might just to interrupt any chase after a Knibb attack. Hopefully with a Duffy or Kingma that can help pull, but then just sit 2nd and 3rd wheel in any chase and make others go around. You just keep doing this over and over, which makes one person pulling too long and eventually they either give up, or a few burn a ton of matches chasing, all the while the two US ladies get pulled along, with just a few surges to get onto any attacks.

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I've been on the "disruption" ploy a few pages back actually (it's not going to be an US TTT if that's what you thought I was suggesting). Me and Ajax had our back and forth on it a few pages back. Again I've never said this is working. I've said this is how you play the strength in numbers game if your the US. Yes other countries can do the same, and when it works to perfection it's fun to exclaim (see French at AD GF a few years back).

But it's almost certain that if they went the "domestique" route, they would be used to "soften" the legs of the front group for 10-15km before allow Knibb to roll off the front and then them "disrupting" the chase. And again I've never mentioned anything about brake checking or riding dangerous to support another athlete (even though brake checking isn't technically illegal). There's plenty you can do to disrupt a chasing group that won't even be seen on the telecast or come off as "shady".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I really dont think other countries could do the same, there is just a different dynamic in the couple that might get two ladies+ in the front group. GB are not going to throw either of their ladies into that role, because on a given day GTB or Potter could win the whole thing, certainly podium. Same for France too, their women are just so good that a podium on a great day is possible..Who else get two women in the lead group of perhaps 10?

But with our group we have some super swimmer/bikers who almost always make the front group, but often are just off the podiums. So unless we see Spivey run onto the podium in Yoko and show she has improved her run form, we are left with very good athletes in the front group, likely to be outrun. So as you say, perhaps time for a strategy to work for the one possible medal contender, and make that the reason for the picks..Then you put Spivey and Knibb on the relay with KZ as a back up in case someone loses form, gets sick, or crashes out...

Of course we have to see this race play out first, so much on the line since the latter cancellation. It really is getting down to all or nothing here, full tapers and shaves no doubt...

I meant more that other countries can "counter" the US tactic; not by doing the same, but they can sorta collectively cover moves by the US. If you know Spivey and KZ are going to "slow roll" their rotation, they'll just get cut out eventually of the rotation. But again it may not need much to create a gap, even better if say an Knibb + X (looking at you Duffy!) gets away together and they can try and gain more time together.

FRA doesn't need to attack....they need to protect CB (or just not fuck it up). GB is going to be interesting because they sorta have an chance it turns into no one riding for the other, more mano y mano.

Knibb is the only one that needs tactics to go her way, she's not going to do well imo if the front group rides all together.....She needs the front group of 12 shredded to 6 etc by T2.


Do I think they'll go with the "domestique" route- No I dont. It should be reminded that Knibb AQ'd with a 5th place at the test event. That may not be considered "medal worthy"......which is why I think an podium in Yoko could be HUGE for her in that aspect. It would sorta show you "see this tactic can work". Especially if your looking at deciding between GJ vs a 3rd front pack athlete for the last spot. Picking GJ basically goes against every other US athlete in Paris. So if your only saying she can be the "if all things go wrong", I just dont see it. Again good news is we'll be able to see it play out in a month. I just don't think in any scenario she is at the front of T2 in Yoko. And with the athletes on the start list (no AD means every other WTCS is going to be "strong" by default), she may beat some US women, but she won't be near a podium.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If Gwen qualifies, Switzerland are her best allies. She'll have two super domestiques in Cathia Schar and Julie Derron.

To me if GJ AQ's- welcome to the team

If GJ comes out of T2 in Yoko 90s down; your answer is she needs too much help to be a "wildcard". Just pick Spivey (MTR + domestique) and then either KZ or Kasper as the "domestique" role. Spivey whether she is told to work for Knibb or not, she sorta wants the bike to be hard by default. So she's going to be an "domestique" for Knibb, for Duffy, for the German's. That's the fun thing in all of this; you have rival federations all being default teammates because they each have similiar needs. Like she's going to want the bike to be hard for her own self interest of putting the better runners under pressure (even if it lessens her chances cus her run is sorta big question mark rignt now).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

you are aware that duffy basically hasn't run in over a year and last finished a race in november 2022?

Which is why I said, has a huge question mark over her!

I think Yokohama will be a good test for Paris and will see the strongest. Maybe Beaugraund is skipping it to prepare Cagliari...who knows. I would say that Cagliari will be a good test too but many olympians will skip it if the have already get the spot.
Well, I know most of you are americans and go for Knibb or Gwen, but french think Beaugraund and Lombardi are favourites too, british think the same about Potter and GTB, Germany with Lindemann and so on.
As a spaniard, with no chances to medal for us I would say that the top top girls right now to medal are Beaugraund, Lombardi, Potter, Knibb and Lindemann. I would discard Duffy (she has not competed since 2022?) and GTB (unless she has a good block of running from now on). This does not mean that there will be no surprises...there are always some: look at Schoeman, Frodo, etc.
Both Coldwell and Waugh won't go, one will be reserve (I would pick Waugh).
My dark horse for Yokohama is Tersch btw.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Change of subject. Johnny Brownlee has disappeared from Superleague this weekend, think I should have said eSports.
Hope he isn't injured, was running track a week ago according to his social media

Well, I know most of you are americans and go for Knibb or Gwen, but french think Beaugraund and Lombardi are favourites too, british think the same about Potter and GTB, Germany with Lindemann and so on.

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But what the main issue with the Knibb is that she is in a very small category that she may be able to play tactics that have an affect on others. CB / Potter they aren't going to "attack" this bike. They are going to make sure they are in front pack and then ride smart as hell. That may mean doing some work, it may be sitting out a rotaiton. But Knibb needs to play tactics against the front group. Similiarly I think Lindemann does as well. Duffy I think is going to skip Paris if she can't run. I just dont see her showing up and crushing the S B and then her knee only lets her finish 38th. I dont think she has to win to show up, but I think she has to be "competitive"....dont really know what I feel that, just a hunch. And her knee really hasn't been well now for a long time. Funny enough she likely can't get on WTCS start lists but is easily inside the cut line to making the olympics from olympic points.

So CB has zero "tactic" to play other than sitting her ass on wheels and being strong enough that the "attacks" don't hurt her for the run. So the 3rd FRA woman can be used to "protect" her in that aspect.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Disagree. Knibb and CB/BP have the same number of tactics to play to win. One.

CB/BP - bike front pack, run for the win
Knibb - bike off the front, get enough of a gap in T2 to hold off the runners

He was the poster boy for this event, but couldn't see him on the start list yesterday, I thought I was going mad!

I'm finding his complete absence from races apart from this event and now gone from this, an odd build up to an Olympics!

Fingers crossed he's not injured!

Which is the point of why Knibb’s tactics are being discussed and anyone like Potter or CB who are far more likely to “sit in” and just be in the front group aren’t of much discussion value. It's also why I think the women have a more better chance at actual front group vs chase group being gapped, while we sorta all think the men are going to be 40 strong into T2.

So there are more favorites to win a medal than knibb. But her tactic to getting to a medal is more discussionable than even the favorites.

I would 100 out of 100 want to have CB’s “tactic” in Paris than Knibb’s.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II