Anne haug? //

He said recently...(-;

As you said, German women are sorted, with Laura Lindemann and Nina Eim who both qualified at the Paris test event by being top 8, and Lisa Tertsch who qualified in Pontevedra at the grand final. Tough for the other 3 or 4 really good German women but I guess from the German national federation point of view that's a great problem to have.

German men, both Tim Hellwig and Lasse Luhrs have qualified (Paris and Pontevedra results). One spot left, likely to be fought between Schomburg, Priester and possibly Henseleit.

France, Beaugrand and Lombardi are almost qualified (still need to show form, top 6 at WTCS this year to validate). The likely 3rd spot will probably be given to Perriault. On the men's side, again both LeCorre (Pontevedra) and Conninx (Paris test event and Pontevedra) have pre-qualified while also needing to show form in 2024 to validate this qualification. This is interesting, because LeCorre who wasn't on the Abu Dhabi start list, may be injured or not (have heard rumors this may be the case, but really not sure). If he can't validate, then it becomes a discretionary choice between Bergere, Luis and him. Otherwise, it's between Bergere and Luis. Talk about a tough choice.

Spaniards: Serrat-Seoane is qualified. The other one or two men spots will be fought between many. If you asked me last year, I would have said it was likely to be Roberto Sanchez Mantecon (former U23 world champion in 2019). But this year in both world cups in Napier and Hong Kong Alberto Gonzalez Garcia has been on fire. Then there is also David Castro Fajardo who was European champion last year. Plus Sergio Baxter Cabrera and Genis Grau (the latter a long shot). Girls will have two slots most likely, and it's between Anna Godoy, Myriam Casillas, Noelia Juan and the in-form in 2024 Cecilia Santamaria (6th last weekend in Hong Kong).

UK: Potter qualified. You'd think GTB is very likely the second selection. Then it's between Waugh and Coldwell, but has Sian Rainsley entered the conversation here? Will she even be given a chance (to race Yoko or Cagliari) by her federation? Men: as discussed in previous pages of this thread, it's all about Alex Yee who is obviously qualified. Who goes with him for the relay? Likely Jonny, and the rest can carry the torch into the future knowing that behind Alex there are spots to take for L.A. 2028.

Because those who are at the top of short course usually stay in short course (or move up at the very end of their career like Nicola Spirig). Those who move up earlier have a defined weakness in short course that handicaps them too much. Ashley Gentle was the swim (she still had great results but that was before the race dynamics moved to favour a top level swim-bike combo). Same for Anne Haug or Daniela (she had one big strength, the bike, which was not often rewarded at ITU level).

Those who move up earlier have a defined weakness in short course that handicaps them too much.//

To be fair, many who stay in short course ITU may be successful and have a weakness, but it is the bike where it can be hidden. Yes the weaker swimmers and/or runners need to move up and often have great success, but those with weak bike rides do not move up well unless they make a big jump in the TT style. I think Gwen would fit into this category as well as a few others that have/done well in ITU racing...

That's why I think Spivey may have a chance to do very well in the T100 series, just have to see how her bike translates to TT style.

Yes agree, and unlike some others who always mention that they would like to see her go long, I don't think Gwen is a person I have in mind for moving up in distance for the very reason you stated here above (relatively weak bike ability and power).

The one I see possibly moving up after Paris and being successful is Georgia.

The one I see possibly moving up after Paris and being successful is Georgia. //

Yes her and Katie Z would probably be an instant success moving up. Both those ladies with front pack swims, and best in show runs. They always seem like one of the most aggressive riders in their groups, often KZ leading for over half the rides...GTB probably still too good at ITU to make a jump, but KZ should be right there either after the selection, or after the games if she makes the cut...

And in about 8 to 10 years, Cathia Schar :-)

He said in last 7 years. She was still doinjg ITU for Rio, so just squeaks in last 7 years.

Rainsley got kicked off funding at the end of the year so I am not sure she would get any nod before the others.

GBTri are using Italy as their qualification race which likely weakens Yokohama. Rainsley is on the WC Woollengong start list 20th April so if she is travelling back to the UK afterwards Yokohama would be a logistical probability.

And on the male side of course we've had quite a few high profile short course athletes move successfully to middle course at least but also long course to some extent. Alistair Brownlee (70.3 Worlds podium, Ironman wins, etc), Javier Gomez (70.3 Worlds podiums), Gustav Iden (70.3 and Ironman Worlds wins), Kristian Blummenfeldt (same as Gustav), Leo Bergere (won his couple of trips to middle distance), Vincent Luis (would have won if not for being struck by a car while leading), Jelle Geens, Marten VanRiel.

Girls: another candidate for long course success could be Loevseth (won her only trip to middle distance).

I've missed some too (Ben Kanute, ...)

I assume there would been others from ITU in countries other than USA (ie, not paid much attention to by stwitchers) who have won their tester into 70.3. Here in Aus Birtwhistle raced one last year and won, had a surprisingly amazing swim with Amberger. Likely be a few others we just dont know about. Any not front pack ITU swimmers are often strong tt bikers.

Let's face it with a world cup win you don't enter the conversation for oly slot in the British female team ,you enter there when you podium twice in world series races.

This is a fair point, I'd like to see Rainsley at least given a chance to back up the World Cup win with a WTC start though, she beat a lot of good women who are all desperate to qualify for Paris.

Yoko would be a good opportunity for GB to sub Rainsley in as all the big name GB athletes will be focusing on Caglari and with a WT ranking of 124, that likely won't get her in on her own. It's sorta an easy process to place hold/sub in in this instance if your GB.

@chrisb- A bit sad to see Birt finishing what 20th in Hong Kong. He in my mind is going to be one of the most affected athlete's by covid's world impact, it's like his development stalled out and now he's almost a shell of himself.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Brooks, I probably missed it in this thread but can any of the US women get an AQ at yoko or any other race? If so, whats the criteria? And then I assume the 3rd would be discretionary.

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blog

1 AQ for men/women in Yoko and must be top 3. If knibb is first American in top 3, she won’t count obviously but it doesn’t “roll down” to say 4th. Top 3 only

1 discretion for women (and men if they get 3rd spot, but that’s like 3% chance now)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Heck, even Matt Mac had a pair of 5ths (I believe) in the last 2 Oceansides. The swim and run are generally competitive, it just comes down to the bike.

Katie Z and Kasper are my picks. I wonder about Spivey, but others have pointed out that she is tiny and might lack the raw power. IDK. Haug is pretty small, right?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Haug transitioned just under 7 years ago: @sidelined ftw. Very well aware that there are loadsamen: not my proposition/question which was: "Moving up in the last 7 years, apart from Knibb and Gentle, name a female athlete who performed at short course top level (say ranked top 20 WTS any year) who has prospered in middle let alone long distance."
Loevseth is not a top 20 WTCS athlete - the only way she'll get a start in Paris is if Norway come first two in the Huatulco MTR. She won well at Indian Wells. Maybe she'll be given a T100 wildcard - but there'll only be an average of 4 women's wildcards from SF onwards and considerable demand.
She should jump ship to middle distance as soon as she can to realise her potential. Riding round in the third pack in draft-legal races cannot be fulfilling. She's only 24 though.

Your question is a ridiculous one because it excludes probably the 2 best 70.3/100 females on the planet right now. You are trying to prove a point by claiming that nobody has moved from ITU to LC successfully in the (random) last 7 years but you want to ignore the 2 most successful ones. as noted above, haug also made a smashing transition in the last 7 years as she debuted at 70.3 in lanzarote in september 2017, which was 6.5 years ago.

in general, you won't see as many itu women successfully transition to LC as you will see itu men because the men, on the whole, are much stronger cyclists than the women, and cycling has a much greater impact on LC than it does in ITU. if you are not a top cyclist, you will not be a top LC athlete but many non top cyclists still can excel in ITU (particularly on the women's side).

That’s a hot take if there ever was one 🙄 and to think I was the one being accused of “polluting” this serious thread with unsubstantiated ramblings 😂 no offense, I for one love the attitude!

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

My question was designed to highlight that very few top ITU women have been able (including the need to 'want to') to transition to success in long course. I'm "ignoring" noone: Haug, Gentle and Knibb: that's 3 in 6 years: a far lower rate than one might intuitively expect. I guess you could add Spirig in a casual (none of the big races) way. If GTB wants to race 100/70.3 after Paris (whether or not she gets the nod there) she seems to have all the weapons. Same for Spivey. But who else fits that mould and is older or otherwise 'done' with short course after Paris? Will there be more taking a hybrid approach, mixing standard and middle distance for the first two years of the XXXIV Olympiad?
I think your 'weak cyclist' analysis is spot on. Spirig, Gentle and Knibb all very strong short course cyclists. Haug much less so: she was "not a top cyclist" but circumvented that condition with her outrageous run speed which made up for her relatively weak bike (which got much better in 2023). We expected Duffy to crush it: she didn't (but that may have been other factors, including wanting to do both).

as a general reply would people agree this should be focused on short course , and a short course to long course transition thread could be started .
its the same old discussion ..... short course athletes cant go long vs after the olympics all the short course athletes will move over and the long course guys will be f.cked,when quite a few that have been short course athletes themselves.... it never turns out either way.
and every time we say nobody without short course background will have a chance in the future a magnus ditlev or sam long will show people otherwise. and AB will show us that being the fastest over 5 k does not necessarily win you a long course short middle distance race

Agree. I will try harder to stay 'on topic' even when the exit options for short course athletes are explored. But the way the forum hot topics front page dynamic plays out, any 'transition' thread would disappear into oblivion.

l Haug much less so: she was "not a top cyclist" but circumvented that condition with her outrageous run speed which made up for her relatively weak bike (which got much better in 2023)

I don't see any relative weaknesses nor the evident subsequent improvement that you describe. Tricky to compare year to year splits as conditions are always different, but just looking at the gap to the best bike split: at Kona 2019 she was 5 minutes off the best bike split (she won) and in 2022 she was 8 minutes off the best bike split (placed second) and it can be argued that LCB simply had a better overall performance.

She is not built to be an uber cyclist as she is 115 lbs and she is aero but not super aero. Despite this, she is one of the best cyclists in the sport.

Sarah True is another example of successful ITU to LC development post Olympic cycle.