Goodness, can we not move this to the lavender room? It's my fault for saying I don't see the need to wear a mask but I do so as required, regardless of personal feeling.

I should have known that would generate the extremists of either side that type paragraphs as if anyone thinking differently actually cares. I take it back.

Im excited and glad people will get to race. I like the new course.

To keep it simple

IM Florida 70.3 (what used to be called a Tinman) Nov 7th Sold out. Community Entry available at $1400

As of Oct 11th Florida had 5,570 new cases, 178 deaths, with 3 weeks to go this may rise.

Go for it.

Anonymous people with big cojones, dime a dozen.

Florida’s cases are once again heading in the wrong direction. After weeks of being in the 2,000s we are now firmly back in 3,000+ territory and went above 4,000 today. I know a week doesn’t necessarily make a trend but things are trending up in other states and Florida will be no different. If we start seeing numbers go up significantly, like increasing to 5000-6000 average per day over the next three weeks, I feel the two FL races will be in serious jeopardy. The Bay County area has been pretty measured and conservative with their COVID response (by FL standards) and if Florida COVID cases start making headlines again I feel the races will be canceled..

The AZ 70.3 this weekend might be the only US race that goes off. The timing is just going to work before the second wave starts to get hold.

Just my $.02.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

In fairness, that 5500 number was two days worth of data. That stated numbers have been creeping up (and significantly, IMO) this week as I noted in my most recent post.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Only Bay County cases matter. PCB packed today. Big swim meet at Frank Brown Park this morning. Was driving up 79 to Hwy 20 and saw several groups of triathletes and lots of soloists out riding the course. 3 weeks to go.

With basically a week to go I think this could be one of those races that could be a race week call as to whether it goes or not.

Here are the 7/5/3 day moving averages for FL and Bay County as of today:
FL - 4068/4324/4648
Bay Co - 30/36/39

Here's what it was a week ago:
FL - 3335/3352/3797
Bay Co - 27/35/40

10 days ago:
FL - 2986/2819/2505
Bay Co - 18/18/19

So there's been a significant uptick in cases in both FL and Bay County over the last 10 days with Bay Co. holding steady over the last week. Positivity rate is climbing as well.

There's no doubt the COVID situation is about to go sideways on us again. This race might squeak in under the wire before things really start turning south. I think the race would be canceled if this race were two weeks or three weeks from now. With a week to go it just might get approved. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets canceled though. Is anyone in the PCB area hearing anything beyond the vague and ambiguous "race is going forward for now"?

IM Arizona is the one in real jeopardy, IMO.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

When it comes to Ironman Florida, you are forever the pessimist and I am forever the optimist. Yes, numbers are going up - no question, but I cannot see this race being cancelled. As a related example, the Central Panhandle Fair opened today in Panama City for Fri, Sat and Sun. I would bet that Ironman's covid precautions are far better than the carnival operator. Note also that the PCB City Council met on 22 Oct 2020 without any discussion of COVID. Their next regular meeting is 12 Nov 2020. As far back as early July I've said on ST that this race will happen and I'm still holding to that. Neither Ironman nor PCB will pull the plug. Athletes can/should make their own decision whether they are personally at risk and should or should not race.

Realist and pessimist are not the same thing.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I've never said it should happen, only that it will happen. I think my forecast is more realistic than yours. Next week, we'll find out.

It'll happen, whether it's in the public's best interest or not.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

Yeah the county isn't going to cancel it and neither is the governor.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Unless BIden proves to be the victor... then he and the demorats will shut it down for sure.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

Just so we are clear, my stance has never been on the should or shouldn't happen part either. IMO, I don't think there's a huge risk in doing sports outside with what we now know. I'd do an Ironman outside ten times before I set foot inside a gym to workout. The risk with outdoor endurance events is what happens around the event itself (crowded start/finish areas, indoor expos, check-in, athlete briefings, banquets, awards) and with volunteers. Seems they have mitigated the stuff that causes crowding (expos, check-in, briefings, banquet, awards) by either not having them or virtually having them or designating specific times with small numbers. I do have some concerns with volunteers still but sounds like all drinks and stuff have remained sealed so they shouldn't be able to finger fuck my drink cups and such, which always skeeved me out at events in the past.

The local govt should have a grasp on whether or not they can extend emergency services to the event. Not my call.

Where I always take a realistic view is the optics of events and how it can be perceived. Having something non-essential and frivolous in a locale that is experiencing an obvious trend in the wrong direction will just never play well with the majority of people. Lubbock was the prime example of this. Numbers started creeping up badly in the couple of weeks leading to the race. But the optics on November 7th in FL/Bay Co. will likely be different than November 14th or November 21st. I personally don't think the optics will look good come next weekend either if there's another 25% uptick next week but like I said... it might squeak in before the shit really starts hitting the fan and we start seeing numbers like we saw this summer.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I'd like to also add that, IMO, until we get an established and well distributed vaccine that I think races will continue to proceed or get canceled based on timing, sprinkled with a bit of local politics. AZ70.3 happened when COVID cases were at it's likely lowest point for the last quarter of the year. IMAZ five weeks later is going to be a different data point. Cases have more than doubled in the last month and are currently 2.5x what they were on race day for the 70.3.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Also won't matter, we are having that race. Tempe is committed, the economic benefit is their focus. Our cases are up but it's not nearly as bad as it was and it's only a marginal upward trend. We have been in the 900-1300 daily new case range for about two weeks. There's an interactive chart at the bottom of this link showing daily new cases and deaths. We aren't that much higher then 2 weeks ago when we had Tempe 70.3 in daily new cases and if you switch over to deaths its a dramatic improvement.

https://www.azcentral.com/...o2qgdEVAG-Zn7zI1S2lg

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Please explain to me how Biden and the Democrats are going to do anything in 2020 after they win the White House and Senate on Tuesday?

It is in pink, so.....

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

The Deep State has its ways.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

Amen to that.

Outdoor is safer yes but the bad wrap that gyms are getting is criminal. I just don't see the data pointing to gyms being a problem anywhere. I haven't seen 1 gym shut down due to an outbreak. Utah spread is over 65% due to people that are family, friends or close contacts. Next biggest contributer is workplace, then long term care.

If you have been into a gym lately you would see why it isnt what you envision, most gyms have pretty good sanitation and cleaning going on.

That’s early COVID thinking when the concern was touch. Not discounting the importance of the touch/contact issue but far and away the biggest issue with COVID is the airborne spread. Gyms are full of maskless people breathing hard in an indoor space. That’s a problem. Gyms can sanitize and wipe down all they want but the ventilation system is the real fault system.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Never said surface contact was the issue but until a health dept can show me that a gym is responsible or pin cases or an outbreak happens there I will continue to defend gyms. Data and factual examples speak louder to me. Social distancing is happening at gyms and masks are worn during entrance and exit. So... gyms for me they are no riskier than any costco, grocery store, gas station, etc...

The most risky area are indoor group gatherings of family and friends that closely interact. Where social distancing and masks are few and far between.

Bingo! Knowing the local politics of Bay County is why I've said IMFL was going to happen all along. And even if COVID numbers continue to rise throughout Nov, I'm hearing that nothing short of the black plague is going to stop Challenge Daytona. You can move some of these events to another county/state with the same virus risk and they would be cancelled in the drop of a hat.

Here is some related research done by the CDC. Only indoor dining and bars/coffee shops reach the level of unambiguous statistical significance, but gyms don’t show the best.

https://www.cdc.gov/...mm6936a5.htm#F1_down

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Dimond Bikes Superfan