Trauma wrote:
The problem here isn't ability, it's suitability... Gomez has the ability that in the right circumstances, he's still a legit podium threat. But the suitability of the toyko course for him is extremely low. Similarly for Blummenfelt, if I were him, I'd be hoping for a medal in Tokyo, but betting on 2024 hoping that the course is more inspired...
In terms of tactics, it's hard to predict the exact unfolding of a race, because that comes down to who feels like what on race day, and the conditions... My only hope for Tokyo is that there are insane cross winds for the bike, and we get echelons and gutter riding, otherwise, the bike might be nap time while watching the broadcast (not the least because of the time difference)... Will there be breaks, yes, will a break make it to T2, less likely. The constitution of those breaks are harder to predict, because it comes down to performance on the day. I will predict that we have at least one to two lesser known athletes in the early break of the swim...
Like Stornes in Bermuda, you'll get some stud swimmers that we haven't seen that much at the pointy end on the WTS, who realize that gambling on an early break is their only shot at a medal (this was effectively what Schoeman did in Rio... he was an established FOP swimmer, but with sporadic individual results)... I think that we'll need some adverse conditions to keep a break clear on that course all the way to T2 involving any contenders... It's not impossible, I'm really hoping that there's epic conditions to make the race more exciting, but if I were betting, I'd say that you'll have repeated break attempts, which will result in a killer fast ride (I'd guess if it's a calm day, the contender pack will split in the 52min ish ballpark or faster with the hyper aggression (probably a tad slower for the strong swimmers, and a tad faster for those who have to chase on)), and then it'll come down to a dash for cash as to who can run on fried legs... If there's epic rains as we've seen in Yokohama before, or killer winds, or killer swells on the swim, then all bets are off...
stornes isn't a stud swimmer and was 24th out of the water in bermuda.
schoeman didn't gamble with a break in rio. he swam FOP, landed in the lead break coming out of t1, hung on for dear life on each lap of the bike and then pulled out the run of his life to hold off mola and murray (with maybe some extra help). he did not take a gamble like stornes did in bermuda with a 3-person break on the bike.