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Gomez back to itu
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Gomez has put off Ironman as he wants a final chance at the gold in Tokyo. Sucks to see him go and I think this will make Alistair more likely to follow the same path.
What do you think of Gomez chances in Tokyo? Seems it will be tough to get the leg speed needed so seems like Alistair would be better suited as he could go for a breakaway.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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So did Kona break him or was this his plan all along? (except maybe he thought he would win in his first try)

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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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He ran a 1;08 in the worlds 70.3, while walking and having to slow down a bunch for a stitch, and you think he has lost his speed? I think a few weeks on focused speedwork and he will be right where he ought to be.

No if you said its possible he is losing speed because of his age, well that is a valid hypothesis. Although I have not seen that guys in running necessarily lose their 10k speed in their early 30's. His best bet is to have Ali come back and they can form that lead breakaway on the main pack. There are just so many guys that have upped their runs that it really can be a crap shoot on the day among 15 different guys if they all come into T2 together. But good news is there are a couple more top lead group swimmers that can hammer the bike now too, so it doesn't all have to be on the Brownlees to push that early pace...

I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..
Last edited by: monty: Jan 14, 19 8:43
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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The release I saw made note that he will return to WTS racing to give the Olympics one more go, but not that he was abandoning long course... He's committed to race ITU LD Worlds in Pontevedra at the end of April, Not sure where he stands vis a vis Kona for the season, but I'm pretty sure he could just race 4 or 5 WTS stops this year and consolidate his ranking for an olympic spot... This is the guy who twice won 70.3 Worlds while racing a full WTS calendar...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Gomez imo has about 1/3rd chance of making it. I say that because while they have MASSIVE depth on the men, they only have 1 medal contender (maybe Alarza so 2 guys leaving the 3rd slot open) and no Gomez is not a medal contender anymore. He's lost top end speed and Tokyo is 99% likelihood to be a 40 man coming into T2, and no Gomez cant outrun Mola, Luis, Blumenfelt and Birtwhistle anymore. That's not a knock, that's reality.

So essentially if he "replaces" one of those top guys it's not as if he's bumping anyone out who's likely a medal contender. They could go with Mola, Alarza (ranked 9th) and then Gomez replace the other top Spaniard who is *only * ranked 16th and 25th.


So Spain is DEEP, but ITU federations can "create" unfair situations where athlete X replaces athlete Y (who's in front of athlete X) simply because some suits want them too.

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Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Jan 14, 19 8:53
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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He'll be closing in on 38 years old when the Tokyo games come a knocking.

So his chances are likely total shit.

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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..

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I'm surprised only in that he's not coming back to ITU and winning. He's just not. There are 5 guys who can easily out-run him now. And he and AB can't use the breakaway because they'll just be pulling the best athlete in ITU now with them- Luis. The only real guys who have issues now are Blumenfelt and Birtwhistle with their swims.

I said and thought Gomez would "struggle" in Kona, not because I don't think he's LC ready, I just think as you said- there's a feeling out period you need. Frodo coming in and just crushing Kona sorta skews the reality that Kona is a madame that you need to learn how to handle especially as I think LC racing now is much more deeper (of course this year Frodo didn't race so that was a big blow for competition of race). I'm not really sure what going back to ITU does for his ability as I think it just stunts LC development. Like you can't do IM training and WTS training, it just doesnt work that way....or should I say to excel at either. Sure you can do it, but your taking away from both top end records by doing it this way. They are just basically 2 different energy/racing styles that if he's truly moving back to ITU training and out of the LC focus, I think this only stunts his IM growth while imo not being a successful "return". I think he's much closer to 8th-10th than he is podium with the studs in ITU now. Of course 8-10 is hella good but I'm saying this idea of going for gold- yeah right.

Now Tokyo in all *liklihood* is designed to have a large group ride vs "breakaways" like Rio or Bermuda. There's 1 chance on the bike course when it goes through a small park and has some tight road that compresses, that's the only real part I see on the course that has any teeth. Which is why it pisses off many but at the same time for the U.S. this is the ideal course for the guys who can run (we have 2 guys who can run top 10 splits....now obviously not medal contender imo but it's a course that atleast gives them a shot to be at the front of the race from T2).

-USAT L2 coach, M.S. Exercise Physiology
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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I don't write off his chances yet at the WTS, two years ago, he combined a very successful 70.3 season with the WTS and managed a win in Montreal... I completely agree that the game has changed a bit, now that there's a healthy Vincent Luis, so it's really tough for the guys who try to Break early, since you're dragging along the best all-rounder in the sport at the moment... If anything the person who stands to lose the most from Gomez returning is Mola, that's one more big engine making it harder to close breaks down... That said, I still see him as someone with a chance on the really hard courses (Bermuda/Montreal/Edmonton), His solo chances in Tokyo are pretty slim, it's a course built for the Mola/Murray type guys, not the Brownlee/Gomez types, but I'm sure the spanish federation is salivating at the thought that they might have him for the MTR...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
He ran a 1;08 in the worlds 70.3, while walking and having to slow down a bunch for a stitch, and you think he has lost his speed? I think a few weeks on focused speedwork and he will be right where he ought to be.

No if you said its possible he is losing speed because of his age, well that is a valid hypothesis. Although I have not seen that guys in running necessarily lose their 10k speed in their early 30's. His best bet is to have Ali come back and they can form that lead breakaway on the main pack. There are just so many guys that have upped their runs that it really can be a crap shoot on the day among 15 different guys if they all come into T2 together. But good news is there are a couple more top lead group swimmers that can hammer the bike now too, so it doesn't all have to be on the Brownlees to push that early pace...

I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..

assuming the HM was the full distance (I don't think it was), 1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race? He's arguably the greatest triathlete of all time but he isn't super human and clearly was slowing before his long course stint. he will be 3 years removed from then in 2020 and will be even slower on the run. his best shot at a gold would have been on a rio-like course where he could get in a small break on the bike and grind up everyone so the run would be more of a race of attrition but that's not happening on the tokyo course.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Bradley Wiggins syndrome ?

Going back to team pursuit in Rio 2016 was a challenge, but it was successful for Bradley.

Viviani coming back to the track for Omnium in Rio 2016 was also a success.

And... Olympic is such dominant in term of marketing. Even an unsuccessful attempt will bring more hype and money than relatively anonymous Kona. Think of TV coverage in Spain / Europe. Other TV exposure. Sponsors visibility ....
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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With the schedule these days WTS races can at times be "soft", as you can miss what 3-4 and still score a max score. So i don't really care that he can maybe do well at X race, etc. But when the full men's field races, Gomez has zero shot. There's a reason why he hasn't raced ITU since 2017, it's cus he was seeing the writing on the wall. As the saying goes, father time is undefeated. But does he have a shot of sitting at the front for 80% of the race, absolutely. I think he has great visibility to sit in with them until 8k left in the race (or maybe not even if they go blazing out of T2) and then "hanging on" in the background of the TV shots 120m back, etc.

-USAT L2 coach, M.S. Exercise Physiology
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Re: Gomez back to itu [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race?//

You are usually pretty reasoned and smart when talking triathlon, but I'm scratching my head at your statement here. You do know that "everyone" in running, runs faster in a 10k than a 1/2 marathon? If he runs 5;12 or whatever for the 1/2(and like I said, while walking, and slow rolling the last couple miles), he most likely is not far off sub 4;50 pace for a 10k, with room to improve on that over a couple months.


I'm not saying he is going to come back and just win, but he should be in the final mix of top 6 coming in off the bike still, and on a good day that is a podium.


And to all that keep harping that any Killer B's/Gomez break is just going to pull around Luis, what are you smoking. I have watched that guy race, and he will be right in there taking his pulls, and probably contributing as much as Ali usually does. He is not a sandbagger, and if he were, they would shut that down very quickly, to the point it is just easier for him to take his pull, than play games and let runners who could beat him get on...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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This year I'm not sure you will have any soft WTS races, as people are coming out of the woodwork in pursuit of olympic qualification points, you might have the odd stud skip a race here or there, but 2018 was the chance to score olympic points against possibly diminished fields, 2019 less so I think... that said, this year's calendar is pretty compressed (grand final is the Aug 30/Sep1), so you could potentially race up and through the grand final, and still tack some long course at the end of the season.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Not sure about your theory. 2017 he won two fully stacked races and finished second overall, that was coming from an injury. He sure must have lost speed but he had only missed one season and might still be capable of winning.

However, he has only committed to race ITU until June. I think he will then assess his possibilities for Tokio and make a decision.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Also a reason both Brownlees haven't *properly* cometed to win the ITU series for a few years is the travel etc makes it work better for Mr and Mrs steady-and-consistent, rather than 'fastest full stop'. A reason Ali hasnt won the ITU series in donkeys years. But has 2 Olympic golds.

I suspect Mola is the one for Tokyo with his great run.
It will take Ali being on top form again+ maybe some tactics with a few select fast-swimming friends to get a decent break out on the bike to drop Mola out of the equation.

The other peak-at-the-right-time performer to be in there with him is Luis.

I really like Gomez, but just can't see him being fast enough to get on the podium in 2020.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race?//

You are usually pretty reasoned and smart when talking triathlon, but I'm scratching my head at your statement here. You do know that "everyone" in running, runs faster in a 10k than a 1/2 marathon? If he runs 5;12 or whatever for the 1/2(and like I said, while walking, and slow rolling the last couple miles), he most likely is not far off sub 4;50 pace for a 10k, with room to improve on that over a couple months.


I'm not saying he is going to come back and just win, but he should be in the final mix of top 6 coming in off the bike still, and on a good day that is a podium.


And to all that keep harping that any Killer B's/Gomez break is just going to pull around Luis, what are you smoking. I have watched that guy race, and he will be right in there taking his pulls, and probably contributing as much as Ali usually does. He is not a sandbagger, and if he were, they would shut that down very quickly, to the point it is just easier for him to take his pull, than play games and let runners who could beat him get on...

you used his 1:08 as evidence that he has the running chops to outrun the top itu guys in a 10k today. i'm saying that a 1:08 is evidence of supreme strength but you can't simply use that time and extrapolate down to figure out a 10k time at the end of an itu race. it's not a simply linear conversion. AB ran even faster -- 1:07:40 -- and he wasn't even in the same zip code on the run as the top itu guys last year (did you see him at GC?).

look at his last elite itu race -- rotterdam grand final 2017. he was with luis, blummenfelt and mola on the run until he got dropped. there's a big difference between his 30:27 split and the 29:59, 30:11 and 30:12 splits the other guys put up. that was the difference between the podium and being fastest non-podium. do you think that he will reverse father time and CLOSE the running gap between 2017 and 2020? no way naturally.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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IS anyone allowed to have an off day in your world? We can all cherry pick this or that race to prove our points. My point is that he is still in the mix, and if he can get in a break that leaves 1/2 the better runners behind, he is still a podium threat.

Remember when he was the guy with no kick, and then that race where he out kicked Jonathan down the last 400meters? See what I did there?? (-;

And I dont think he is going to do long distance training at the same time, I bet he does a super sprint focus since he is all in for this 2020 games..He's a smart guy, that much we know for sure...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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It doesn’t matter if Luis works or not in the front group. The point is he’s essentially replaced them. He’s the best swimmer and runner not something you want when your trying to be in the front group like Gomez. So instead of it Gomez or the B’s brothers as the top royalty in every front group now they are the secondary figures.

Like I said I’m not really sure why he left itu other than I think the writing was on the wall. He’s aging like that’s not a knock. Thats what happens when you get old, you get passed by younger faster ppl.

Gomez is my fav athlete of all time. I just think he’s excellent at everything and just a pure Diesel engine with almost complete efficiency. He’s what I look to as the total package. Brownlee while faster is unique he just “mashes” himself. Not much you point to and say replicate that other than guts/desire. But he has terrible form mostly, he’s just a beast and will outworks everyone else. Gomez is the picture of pretty much perfection when you are a triathlete.

-USAT L2 coach, M.S. Exercise Physiology
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Re: Gomez back to itu [ecce-homo] [ In reply to ]
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So why did he take the entire 2018 year off and move completely to IM + 70. You can get away with itu + 70 training but you don’t really mix IM + itu. They are pretty much polar opposites in terms of demands of competition.

Like it’s no knock to say Gomez is losing his speeed. It would create far more questions for him *NOT* to as he ages and could still outrun younger/better athletes.

-USAT L2 coach, M.S. Exercise Physiology
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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I believe he thought his best shot at winning both Kona and Olympic gold was winning Kona this year and returning back to ITU in 19. Since that didn't happen, this is plan B. Giving Tokyo a shot and then Kona. Actually, this is plan C. Plan A was winning Rio and going to Kona.

That's my opinion.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe he realized he is getting older, and decided to take a year of "base" training (ie. long distance/ lower intensity) to reduce chance of injury and prepare for one last kick at the can.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [mag900] [ In reply to ]
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To be fair, read nothing into AB's run in Gold Coast... firstly, he got slaughtered in the swim, and secondly, he knew he was Disqualified by the time he hit the run, so other than pacing Varga for a little bit, he totally mailed it in...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I got the pleasure of working with Javi during his lead up and execution in London. He has unfinished business there and he’s the only one who knows if he’s still got the leg speed. He’s been doing a training block in Spain and my guess is they were testing Javi now against Javi then and determined it’s all there.

On the flip side I was watching him run down Alii Drive. I’ve watched him race live all over the world. The look on his face and the distended belly were shocking. I think that result and some recent testing probably made his decision.

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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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so which race in 2018 do you think indicated that he was in top 10k running form? the euro championships a month earlier when he split 32:47 or the commonwealth games in april when he split a speedy 16:05? when he was in top shape in his prime, he probably was the best 10k runner ever in triathlon but in 2018 he was a shell of himself on the run and he still split 1:07 in the HIM WC. HM times in a HIM are not indicative of how fast someone can run a 10k in an itu race!
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Re: Gomez back to itu [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
IS anyone allowed to have an off day in your world? We can all cherry pick this or that race to prove our points. My point is that he is still in the mix, and if he can get in a break that leaves 1/2 the better runners behind, he is still a podium threat.

Remember when he was the guy with no kick, and then that race where he out kicked Jonathan down the last 400meters? See what I did there?? (-;

And I dont think he is going to do long distance training at the same time, I bet he does a super sprint focus since he is all in for this 2020 games..He's a smart guy, that much we know for sure...

we get it and we strongly disagree with you. he is not "in the mix" for gold in tokyo. he's still "in the mix" for gold at the HIM and IM WCs.
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