So did Kona break him or was this his plan all along? (except maybe he thought he would win in his first try)

He ran a 1;08 in the worlds 70.3, while walking and having to slow down a bunch for a stitch, and you think he has lost his speed? I think a few weeks on focused speedwork and he will be right where he ought to be.

No if you said its possible he is losing speed because of his age, well that is a valid hypothesis. Although I have not seen that guys in running necessarily lose their 10k speed in their early 30's. His best bet is to have Ali come back and they can form that lead breakaway on the main pack. There are just so many guys that have upped their runs that it really can be a crap shoot on the day among 15 different guys if they all come into T2 together. But good news is there are a couple more top lead group swimmers that can hammer the bike now too, so it doesn't all have to be on the Brownlees to push that early pace...

I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..

The release I saw made note that he will return to WTS racing to give the Olympics one more go, but not that he was abandoning long course... He's committed to race ITU LD Worlds in Pontevedra at the end of April, Not sure where he stands vis a vis Kona for the season, but I'm pretty sure he could just race 4 or 5 WTS stops this year and consolidate his ranking for an olympic spot... This is the guy who twice won 70.3 Worlds while racing a full WTS calendar...

Gomez imo has about 1/3rd chance of making it. I say that because while they have MASSIVE depth on the men, they only have 1 medal contender (maybe Alarza so 2 guys leaving the 3rd slot open) and no Gomez is not a medal contender anymore. He's lost top end speed and Tokyo is 99% likelihood to be a 40 man coming into T2, and no Gomez cant outrun Mola, Luis, Blumenfelt and Birtwhistle anymore. That's not a knock, that's reality.

So essentially if he "replaces" one of those top guys it's not as if he's bumping anyone out who's likely a medal contender. They could go with Mola, Alarza (ranked 9th) and then Gomez replace the other top Spaniard who is *only * ranked 16th and 25th.


So Spain is DEEP, but ITU federations can "create" unfair situations where athlete X replaces athlete Y (who's in front of athlete X) simply because some suits want them too.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

He'll be closing in on 38 years old when the Tokyo games come a knocking.

So his chances are likely total shit.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..

--------

I'm surprised only in that he's not coming back to ITU and winning. He's just not. There are 5 guys who can easily out-run him now. And he and AB can't use the breakaway because they'll just be pulling the best athlete in ITU now with them- Luis. The only real guys who have issues now are Blumenfelt and Birtwhistle with their swims.

I said and thought Gomez would "struggle" in Kona, not because I don't think he's LC ready, I just think as you said- there's a feeling out period you need. Frodo coming in and just crushing Kona sorta skews the reality that Kona is a madame that you need to learn how to handle especially as I think LC racing now is much more deeper (of course this year Frodo didn't race so that was a big blow for competition of race). I'm not really sure what going back to ITU does for his ability as I think it just stunts LC development. Like you can't do IM training and WTS training, it just doesnt work that way....or should I say to excel at either. Sure you can do it, but your taking away from both top end records by doing it this way. They are just basically 2 different energy/racing styles that if he's truly moving back to ITU training and out of the LC focus, I think this only stunts his IM growth while imo not being a successful "return". I think he's much closer to 8th-10th than he is podium with the studs in ITU now. Of course 8-10 is hella good but I'm saying this idea of going for gold- yeah right.

Now Tokyo in all *liklihood* is designed to have a large group ride vs "breakaways" like Rio or Bermuda. There's 1 chance on the bike course when it goes through a small park and has some tight road that compresses, that's the only real part I see on the course that has any teeth. Which is why it pisses off many but at the same time for the U.S. this is the ideal course for the guys who can run (we have 2 guys who can run top 10 splits....now obviously not medal contender imo but it's a course that atleast gives them a shot to be at the front of the race from T2).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I don't write off his chances yet at the WTS, two years ago, he combined a very successful 70.3 season with the WTS and managed a win in Montreal... I completely agree that the game has changed a bit, now that there's a healthy Vincent Luis, so it's really tough for the guys who try to Break early, since you're dragging along the best all-rounder in the sport at the moment... If anything the person who stands to lose the most from Gomez returning is Mola, that's one more big engine making it harder to close breaks down... That said, I still see him as someone with a chance on the really hard courses (Bermuda/Montreal/Edmonton), His solo chances in Tokyo are pretty slim, it's a course built for the Mola/Murray type guys, not the Brownlee/Gomez types, but I'm sure the spanish federation is salivating at the thought that they might have him for the MTR...

assuming the HM was the full distance (I don't think it was), 1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race? He's arguably the greatest triathlete of all time but he isn't super human and clearly was slowing before his long course stint. he will be 3 years removed from then in 2020 and will be even slower on the run. his best shot at a gold would have been on a rio-like course where he could get in a small break on the bike and grind up everyone so the run would be more of a race of attrition but that's not happening on the tokyo course.

Bradley Wiggins syndrome ?

Going back to team pursuit in Rio 2016 was a challenge, but it was successful for Bradley.

Viviani coming back to the track for Omnium in Rio 2016 was also a success.

And... Olympic is such dominant in term of marketing. Even an unsuccessful attempt will bring more hype and money than relatively anonymous Kona. Think of TV coverage in Spain / Europe. Other TV exposure. Sponsors visibility ....

With the schedule these days WTS races can at times be "soft", as you can miss what 3-4 and still score a max score. So i don't really care that he can maybe do well at X race, etc. But when the full men's field races, Gomez has zero shot. There's a reason why he hasn't raced ITU since 2017, it's cus he was seeing the writing on the wall. As the saying goes, father time is undefeated. But does he have a shot of sitting at the front for 80% of the race, absolutely. I think he has great visibility to sit in with them until 8k left in the race (or maybe not even if they go blazing out of T2) and then "hanging on" in the background of the TV shots 120m back, etc.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race?//

You are usually pretty reasoned and smart when talking triathlon, but I'm scratching my head at your statement here. You do know that "everyone" in running, runs faster in a 10k than a 1/2 marathon? If he runs 5;12 or whatever for the 1/2(and like I said, while walking, and slow rolling the last couple miles), he most likely is not far off sub 4;50 pace for a 10k, with room to improve on that over a couple months.


I'm not saying he is going to come back and just win, but he should be in the final mix of top 6 coming in off the bike still, and on a good day that is a podium.


And to all that keep harping that any Killer B's/Gomez break is just going to pull around Luis, what are you smoking. I have watched that guy race, and he will be right in there taking his pulls, and probably contributing as much as Ali usually does. He is not a sandbagger, and if he were, they would shut that down very quickly, to the point it is just easier for him to take his pull, than play games and let runners who could beat him get on...

This year I'm not sure you will have any soft WTS races, as people are coming out of the woodwork in pursuit of olympic qualification points, you might have the odd stud skip a race here or there, but 2018 was the chance to score olympic points against possibly diminished fields, 2019 less so I think... that said, this year's calendar is pretty compressed (grand final is the Aug 30/Sep1), so you could potentially race up and through the grand final, and still tack some long course at the end of the season.

Not sure about your theory. 2017 he won two fully stacked races and finished second overall, that was coming from an injury. He sure must have lost speed but he had only missed one season and might still be capable of winning.

However, he has only committed to race ITU until June. I think he will then assess his possibilities for Tokio and make a decision.

Also a reason both Brownlees haven't *properly* cometed to win the ITU series for a few years is the travel etc makes it work better for Mr and Mrs steady-and-consistent, rather than 'fastest full stop'. A reason Ali hasnt won the ITU series in donkeys years. But has 2 Olympic golds.

I suspect Mola is the one for Tokyo with his great run.
It will take Ali being on top form again+ maybe some tactics with a few select fast-swimming friends to get a decent break out on the bike to drop Mola out of the equation.

The other peak-at-the-right-time performer to be in there with him is Luis.

I really like Gomez, but just can't see him being fast enough to get on the podium in 2020.

you used his 1:08 as evidence that he has the running chops to outrun the top itu guys in a 10k today. i'm saying that a 1:08 is evidence of supreme strength but you can't simply use that time and extrapolate down to figure out a 10k time at the end of an itu race. it's not a simply linear conversion. AB ran even faster -- 1:07:40 -- and he wasn't even in the same zip code on the run as the top itu guys last year (did you see him at GC?).

look at his last elite itu race -- rotterdam grand final 2017. he was with luis, blummenfelt and mola on the run until he got dropped. there's a big difference between his 30:27 split and the 29:59, 30:11 and 30:12 splits the other guys put up. that was the difference between the podium and being fastest non-podium. do you think that he will reverse father time and CLOSE the running gap between 2017 and 2020? no way naturally.

IS anyone allowed to have an off day in your world? We can all cherry pick this or that race to prove our points. My point is that he is still in the mix, and if he can get in a break that leaves 1/2 the better runners behind, he is still a podium threat.

Remember when he was the guy with no kick, and then that race where he out kicked Jonathan down the last 400meters? See what I did there?? (-;

And I dont think he is going to do long distance training at the same time, I bet he does a super sprint focus since he is all in for this 2020 games..He's a smart guy, that much we know for sure...

It doesn’t matter if Luis works or not in the front group. The point is he’s essentially replaced them. He’s the best swimmer and runner not something you want when your trying to be in the front group like Gomez. So instead of it Gomez or the B’s brothers as the top royalty in every front group now they are the secondary figures.

Like I said I’m not really sure why he left itu other than I think the writing was on the wall. He’s aging like that’s not a knock. Thats what happens when you get old, you get passed by younger faster ppl.

Gomez is my fav athlete of all time. I just think he’s excellent at everything and just a pure Diesel engine with almost complete efficiency. He’s what I look to as the total package. Brownlee while faster is unique he just “mashes” himself. Not much you point to and say replicate that other than guts/desire. But he has terrible form mostly, he’s just a beast and will outworks everyone else. Gomez is the picture of pretty much perfection when you are a triathlete.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So why did he take the entire 2018 year off and move completely to IM + 70. You can get away with itu + 70 training but you don’t really mix IM + itu. They are pretty much polar opposites in terms of demands of competition.

Like it’s no knock to say Gomez is losing his speeed. It would create far more questions for him *NOT* to as he ages and could still outrun younger/better athletes.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I believe he thought his best shot at winning both Kona and Olympic gold was winning Kona this year and returning back to ITU in 19. Since that didn't happen, this is plan B. Giving Tokyo a shot and then Kona. Actually, this is plan C. Plan A was winning Rio and going to Kona.

That's my opinion.

Maybe he realized he is getting older, and decided to take a year of "base" training (ie. long distance/ lower intensity) to reduce chance of injury and prepare for one last kick at the can.

To be fair, read nothing into AB's run in Gold Coast... firstly, he got slaughtered in the swim, and secondly, he knew he was Disqualified by the time he hit the run, so other than pacing Varga for a little bit, he totally mailed it in...

I got the pleasure of working with Javi during his lead up and execution in London. He has unfinished business there and he’s the only one who knows if he’s still got the leg speed. He’s been doing a training block in Spain and my guess is they were testing Javi now against Javi then and determined it’s all there.

On the flip side I was watching him run down Alii Drive. I’ve watched him race live all over the world. The look on his face and the distended belly were shocking. I think that result and some recent testing probably made his decision.

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Dave Jewell
Free Run Speed

so which race in 2018 do you think indicated that he was in top 10k running form? the euro championships a month earlier when he split 32:47 or the commonwealth games in april when he split a speedy 16:05? when he was in top shape in his prime, he probably was the best 10k runner ever in triathlon but in 2018 he was a shell of himself on the run and he still split 1:07 in the HIM WC. HM times in a HIM are not indicative of how fast someone can run a 10k in an itu race!

we get it and we strongly disagree with you. he is not "in the mix" for gold in tokyo. he's still "in the mix" for gold at the HIM and IM WCs.

None, Euros was probably his only decent go at an ITU race, but he was still on like 3 weeks of run training, on a slow course, after a hard ride, and still managed 4th... I'd still wager a healthy AB can run sub 30... Can he produce a run like Mola did in Montreal, nope (that was insane), but from a break, he won't have to...

I wouldn't select him on a supersprint relay team over Alarza. Even he knows he doesn't have the speed. His announcement stated he isn't planning on racing any sprint races, only Olympic distance because he couldn't win them. If Spain are interested in the relay he wouldn't be their guy. he will be 38, that is getting way up there for this type speed.

That’s not really how it works. You don’t go long to extend your speed. You go long when your speed has pretty much ended and then work to endurance efficiency.

I mean if the plan was to win Kona in 1 year that’s one hell of a plan because as I said earlier I thought it was pretty evident he would “struggle” in year 1 in Kona. I certainly didn’t think he had the bike legs to run 2:40 off the bike in year 1 of Kona. I said he simply needed to go race, take his lumps and learn from it. Of course he *thought* he would win, a bunch of athletes think that but I also thought the reality was going to happen and it did.


But as I said itu federations can replace athletes who aren’t medal winners. So he has a shot at making Tokyo. That may be shitty circumstance but they set the rules so they can if they set standard of 1 spot being “disrection”. I just don’t think medal is in the cards for a what 38 year old in Tokyo.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

physiologically it should be impossible, he is great, but no one is that great they can outsmart father time. (naturally)
Alarza is the athlete that would have the most concerns. Is Gomez planning on taking his points spot, he isn't racing for all his own qualification points otherwise he would be racing all the season, not just cherry picking. Is he expecting to finish inside the top 30ish of a 2 year qualifying period with only 3 or 4 races? if not then he is planning on making the minimum points for qualification and then the federation handing him the spot someone else worked for, I hope this isn't the case.

I am a bit shocked by the news...but understandable.
1. He is supported by Banco Santander... I guess he must be on the radar...going back to ITU will help a bit
2. He does not enjoy IM as much as ITU but he knew he had to give it a try after missing Rio. It is the natural step, right?
3. He said he will prove himself in ITU till June... the olympic simulation is a good opportunity if he is still in good shape... if not...he will go for the IM worlds in 2020 but I dont discard he leaves the sport... before the end of this year..

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Doesn't have to be only an individual medal he's aiming for. MTR, while shorter which is theoretically against him, is a very different tactical game.
Spain don't have the same depth on the womens side, but if they can lift someone to being a competent leg 1 he would make sure they were in the mix for leg 2, then hand off to Routier and have a shot at setting Mola up for leg 4. The last thing any other country wants is to take Mola into a 1 mile run on an equal standing.

Women always go first.

https://www.triathlon.org/multisports/triathlon_mixed_relay

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

That's why i had him down for leg 2...

Ah sorry, I misread.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Sure makes going long the last year an even weirder choice, cus MTR is an even more extreme top end effort than individual sprint.

Then someone said he’s only doing the oly distance WTS events, doesn’t really make a lot of sense from a demands of competition standpoint.

Unless they are saying Spain will be so far back that Gomez is just going to have to go for broke to get them back in it for the last 2 legs.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

But if it’s any team to do this Spain is it because as I said in the itu thread I think the MTR last chance qualifier will play out waaaay differently than the regular MTR’s because it’s the non-qualifier nations only so tactically they will be in better situations to be at front.

So I think Spain pulls out their all stars for LCQ roster and gets 3 spots with their 4 in top 20 ranking. As I said since only 2 are top 10 the other 2 are liable to be cut and replaced by Gomez. So unless they say it’s top 3 ranked athletes as their pathway I think Gomez can “steal” a spot cus I don’t think his points will get him the spot on his merit alone.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think Gomez can “steal” a spot cus I don’t think his points will get him the spot on his merit alone.

Thats a very weird statement, dont you think? So if he comes back, get a couple podiums(or near) but ends up 4th in overall points, you pick the guy that never got top 10 but has more points??

We have had these discussions before on different countries qualifying procedures, especially ours here in the US. But I have no doubt that the Spanish federation under those circumstances(or even near them) will make the right choice, and give the spot to the guy that earns it, Gomez. Remember the goal at the games is to win medals, not to send the most consistent non top finisher who just happens to score more points. And its ok to use the point system for the top place, or even two, but when you have 3 spots, best to use them wisely. Perhaps even a domestic if the situation warrants..

No it's not a weird statement, it's an statement made by understanding the qualification process (funny enough I do know some stuff with ITU regardless if you want to give credit that I do). As I said everything you wrote in your paragraph I already wrote at the top of this thread. It's also why I used quotation marks around steal because he's going to merely "replace" the guy that' not ranked in the top 10 (Mola and Alarza are imo safe- barring major injury) because those guys aren't medal contenders and federations aren't into feel good stories.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Maybe he looked at the fact that he dedicated 6+ months towards one goal and went home with $0? All the while his ITU buddies were going around racing the ITU circuit then spent the fall traveling to exotic locations, having a blast earning very good money racing Super League...

As you mentioned father time is catching him so maybe he and his mangement think its much wiser to go short and get on the Macca train while it lasts. Pretty certain the Brownlee Brothers are having the same conversations inside their camp. Ironman hasn't raised the purse in kona in over a decade and continue to cut purses and or offer ridiculously low purses of $15k for 70.3s and $25-40$ for Ironmans....

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Scott DeFilippis
Professional Triathlete
Coach and Co/Founder
KIS Coaching

Do you realize the Gomez´s actual weight in Spain Team?

Gomez (also Knowns as Noya) has scored a 1st and a 4th in Montreal (WTS) and Rotterdam (Grand Final) 2017.

He come back after his elbow injury with a win in WTS Abu Dhabi beating (and running faster) Vincent Luis and his teammates (Alarza and Mola)

So, that´s your Opinion, which I respect, but not reality.

My opinion is that Gomez will be a medal contender.

Do you realize the Gomez´s actual weight in Spain Team?

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Spain? Have you seen the reaction from ITU? This is huge news. Gomez is basically the patron saint of triathlon. This is great for ITU.

But all the results you just posted happened over 1.5years ago and this is an athlete that left DL for exact opposite training and will be what 38 years old in Tokyo. For as long as he left that’s still how far of a time frame we have til Tokyo.

I was in small minority on ST that said Gomez would struggle in Kona and not race well to what his other IM looked like. I knew he’d struggle on the bike and it’d fry his legs. So I’ll go on small island and say he ain’t a medal contender going into Tokyo.

Eta: athletes age out and slow down and move on. Hardly ever can athletes hang on to podium status this long in a career. Gomez helped put studs into LC just like guys will do to him. So what I’m suggesting isn’t some out of the realm reality. As I said this is the natural progression of athletics....when you age you slow down. So I’m not knocking him I’m kinda stating more obvious “facts”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I agree it is great news for ITU

I agree also that ageing does not help speed.
Sport wise, IMO it would make sense for him to concentrate for LD (older = longuer), even if he might not be the king there

Sponsor and money wise, Olympic make more sense (especially in Europe)

Probably not going to win in Tokyo, but will make the buzz (only before the start ?)

I predict a silver at best in Tokyo.

Future facts are only known by wizards. :-)

Age decrease performance? That’s a fact
To be 37 years old slows N=1 significantly to put JGN out of the battle? That’s not a fact, that’s a prediction based in statistics

Even if Noya don’t get a medal, we wouldn’t know if that is because the age or another cause.

I’ve not said he’s been out of battle. I’ve said Tokyo is the worst course for an athlete like him and that he’s more likely to be 10th ish than a podium. Tokyo is a terrible course for front pack athlete as it’s going to in all likelihood have all the runners coming out of T2 together and that’s the worst scenario for Gomez. Gomez would have a much better chance on a harder course as Tokyo is basically built as a drag strip run venue. It’s very likelihood going to be a very ho hum swim-bike. I really only see one area of the course that is trouble and that’s going to be the ride through the park if the road narrows. But it has little to no elevation gain so it’s really not likely going to be able to keep a breakaway.

And I don’t care to give the reason why he won’t medal. If he comes out with top runners that’s reason enough why he won’t out run Mola, Blumenfelt, birthwhistle, Luis at minimum. As I said I think it’ll be a great feat if he hangs on for 2k out of T2 cus he’ll be there for that long. I just don’t think he’ll be able to hold their pace. Just like when he broke older guys, at some point the tide will turn on him. Like I said it’s not really outlandish statement to say older athletes very very rarely medal in itu.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sydney Men 25-28-27
Sydney Women 33-31-29
Athens Men 33-27-23
Athens Women 34-29-35
Beijing Men 27-33-31
Beijing Women 27-23-24
London Men 24-29-22
London Women 30-28-27
Rio Men 29-27-25
Rio Women 30-34-30

Rarely, but no so unfrenquently and of course not impossible.

To break down the races even further, here's his run splits and his overall split from his last year in WTS 2017.

Grand Final (olympic)- 4th best run split, 4th overall
Montreal (olympic)- 2nd best run split, 1st overall
Edmonton (sprint)- 6th best run split, 6th overall
Hamburg (sprint)- 7th best run split, 5th overall
Yokohoma (olympic)- 12th best run split, 9th overall
Gold Coast (sprint)- 4th best run split, 4th overall
Abu Dhabi (olympic)- 2nd best run split, 1st overall

Avg run split- 5.2. Avg finish- 4.3

2/7 times he had a podium split run. 2/7 overall podium positions


And yes we can say he "slowed" down if he was leading, but I'm just giving you stats, cus if your telling me his 1st and 4th are showcasing he's a medal contender, I'm giving you splits to why he's obviously slowing down. So I think it's more on yall to show me how he's going to medal other than "it's gomez man". And again I'm not trying to knock his return. This is badass. ITU does hella better at promoting their pros then IM does. So he can fail and finish in 7th, 12th, 19th and I think it'll be a spectacular return (just like I thought his Kona result was good, he wasn't going to show up and win, I thought that was fairly obvious as I thought he just needed to race and gain experience....you can't win every single event, there are times when you just need to take results and learn from more than have this end all be all that it's win or he cant hack it). But the question was asked how would he do, and I"m showing you why I think he's not going to be a medal contender unless you want to say any guy out of T2 is a contender...which as I said Tokyo is going to be a not so good race venue for an athlete that is lacking the likely speed necessary to win. There's nothing about Tokyo except speed. There's no real strength component of the event like there is at Bermuda or Rio.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

And just to show you the run splits within ITU for Gomez at this time period in 2013. So 2013 vs 2017 WTS splits

2013 WTS season
Auckland- 1st run split; 1st overall
San Diego- 8th run split, 8th overall
Yokohoma- 3rd run split; 2nd overall
Madrid- 7th run split, 2nd overall
(i'm not counting Kitz as this was not a normal event, it was basically a TT up a mountain)
Hamburg (sprint)- 5th run split; 3rd overall
Stockholm- 1st run split; 1st overall
Grand Final- 1st run split; 1st overall

Avg run split- 3.7 Avg overall finish- 2.5

4/7 times he had a podium run split. 6/7 times he had a overall podium finish.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

my feeling is that for a lot of ITU guys, IM racing is just not that appealing. it's slow, it's boring, it's lonely . . . you lose your federation funding and all the support you get with that, and you go from racing every weekend to a few times per year.

it's natural to want to give it a try, since for many kona is the pinnacle of the sport, but to my mind guys like ali and gomez have nothing to prove. if gomez had never raced the IM distance he'd still have one of the best palmares in history.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

you are posting the age of all medalists that shows the oldest medalist ever was 34 as evidence that a medal at 38 is possible???

Gomez has been hiding injuries for a long time. We even don't know if he was 100% at Kona.
After London OG, he starts to run massive volume and was really successful... But with the Rio build up...

I have the feeling that he wants to be back on the ITU circuit only because he is feeling that his body is back on track. We have the same phenomenon with Alistair Brownlee. When he is 100%, no one can beat him and actually, I don't believe that we have seen an athlete with higher athletic performance in the 3 sports.

Honestly, we can say that Mola or Luis are now better but on my personal view, with no Brownlee and Gomez, the race dynamics were really different and probably, less competitive.

BTW, what's up with Alistair. Won't be shocked at all if he wins Tokyo...

BTW, what's up with Alistair. Won't be shocked at all if he wins Tokyo...

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Whoever is going to win I think is going to have to do it by outrunning every single stud runner from the start of T2. I just dont think Tokyo is technical enough course, but maybe it is and it forces Birthwhistle/Blummenfelt/Murray (I think Mola makes the front group) to burn all their matches, but I tend to favor them catching on and having a 30 min remaining hand holding session on that type of course. Then it's a drag race among all the runners. I just dont see Brownlee/Gomez/Luis led front group staying away. But that's why they race, it just would shock me if it's an tactical bike leg. So whoever is going to win is going to have to run a smoking fast run, and imo that's just not Gomez anymore.....injuries or non-injuries be damned.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No. I’m JUST posting age medalist. I’m not a wizard, just a coach that thinks that chsnces for a medal at 37 being JGN is not utopic

BTW. JGN will be 37 in Tokyo.

So, 28% of his WTS starts after a long term get a medal.

Mario Mola; 87 % of his starts in 2018 WTS get a medal
Vincent Luis; 50%
Richard Murray; 50%
KB; 44%
Jacob B.42%
Fernando Alarza; 16%
Alistair B; 3 major ITU Races; 0%

Not in the 3 favourites, but would yo bet against JGN 3 to 1?

So, 28% of his WTS starts after a long term get a medal.

Mario Mola; 87 % of his starts in 2018 WTS get a medal
Vincent Luis; 50%
Richard Murray; 50%
KB; 44%
Jacob B.42%
Fernando Alarza; 16%
Alistair B; 3 major ITU Races; 0%
Gomez: No major ITU races,; 0%

Not in the 3 favourites, but would yo bet against JGN 3 to 1?

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Check my bolded, or tell me who he's going to beat in 1.5 years from now at age 37. Who's he going to out run when the very liklihood he's going to have to outrun every single person that is in this list and in his last year of ITU competition he more often then not WASN'T able to out run them? But 1.5 years from now he's suddenly going to? What trend are you looking at? That he did it 1 time out of 7 in Montreal, only to 1 month later get beaten by guys on that list?


I'm stoked Gomez is back in it, I think he's the most efficient and gentleman in the sport. He's a stud. I just think at some point your not good enough to win and/or podium. That's not a knock, at one point Michael Jordan couldn't hack it either, he had to bow to the young guns. So like I said, for everyone telling me he's going to podium, how? 2 years ago he regularly was beaten by the top guys. He then left the very specificity that he needs in order to run well all the while others improved their game, but he's going to come back and podium?


Help me see the light because the stats/results aren't showcasing what yall are suggesting. ETA: But if your sitting on that he has a "shot" at podium, that's true for about likely about what 9 people going into that race, but you wouldnt stake your claim with every athlete would you? Of course not, some have much better odds than others, so again that's how I feel w Gomez. He's low down on the odds in my book. But I guess if your just saying he has a "chance", that's kinda not really all the difficult to say (and so yes by default I'll give you he has a "shot" at a podium, just low odds, so if your saying that's enough to stake your claim that he'll podium- cool).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I just wanted to spitball some numbers. If Gomez races the top level Olympic distance calendar between now and the end of qualifying, that comprises probably 6 races. (3 WTS this year, test event, GF, and 1 early season 2020.). If he averages a 3rd place finish that gives him around 5000 points. It is hard to predict what 30th place on the list will be. But looking at Rio, which had similar point allocation rules, that is 17th. Well within the top 30. I will argue that anyone ranking within the top 30 has more than demonstrated competence to make the Olympic roster, and then the mater simply falls to a national federation’s selection process. By this measure, Gomez (or AB) wouldn’t be taking a spot from another athlete they would have clearly earned a place for their federation and then the federation decides who goes.

TLDR: Top athletes like Gomez or Brownlees need maybe 5-7 races to ensure a high ranking.

Spain Criteria

Being in the top 140 Olympic Ranking;

1st Spot; Best Spanish Athlete in Tokio Test Event 2019 (being top 3) OR Best Spanish Athlete in Olympic ranking by 31/12/2019 being Top-8

2nd Spot; Best Spanish Athlete in Olympic ranking by 31/12/2019 being Top-15

3rd Spot; Technical Decision considering Medal Options in Team Relay.

he was 4th, 1st and 9th in his last 3 ITU olympic distance races in 2017 and you think that he is going to be going top 3 in his next 6 in 2019 and 2020, which include the GF and test event where everyone will be there and in top tapered form?

4-1-6.

I do not think about future performances, just saying that I will not bet against this man.

he was 9th in yokohama (not 6th).

i gladly will take the other side of any bets you want to make about him winning the gold in tokyo for all of the reasons stated by multiple people on this thread.

Yokohama is not one of his three last races. He raced 6 more times after Yokohama 2017.

I’m not defending that he would be the favourite for the gold (that’s Mola, obviously) but arguing that he will be in the Tokio’s pontoon thinking in winning the gold, and my bet is that he will be fighting in medal positions with 5-6 athletes in the km 8. What will be happen then? If i would know I would bet all my savings, but I never bet in sports, nor say that Rafa Nadal or Roger Federer are old.

As a coach do you think Tokyo will create an front pack breakaway that can keep several top runners likely away or will a large peloton come into T2 together where all the top runners all start the run together?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

As coach; would you have predicted that a norwegian (Casper Stornes) could make a soloride and winning Bermudas?

Would you have predicted that front pack breakaway in Athens 2004 without Ivan Raña?

Would you have predicted a Jan Frodeno win in Beijing?

Would you have predicted Lisa Norden in photo finish against Spirig?

In 5 Olympic Games predictions were OK just in London and Rio. (Even in Rio I was expecting, not predicting a Mola’s Medal, not Schoeman’s)

I do not make predictions, just coach and make plan A, B and C in different tactical scenarios for my athletes.

I do not make predictions, just coach and make plan A, B and C in different tactical scenarios for my athletes.

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EXACTLY....but you make plans based on how the other athletes around you race and how it affects you. So you do make predictions and tactics for each prediction.

All I'm doing is talking out the tactics by applying the stats from Gomez and how that then formulates into plans and results. Your suggesting he's going to do it because he's Gomez. I'm betting against it based on stats of how he's performed with all the guys around him in the last year he raced in 2017 + tactical scenarios that I think will happen.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

luarca...nz media were predicting a front pack breakaway in Athens well ahead of the Olympic tri, with the nzers setting the pace. although can't recall anything about Rana not making the break.

Another thing to consider when comparing all the different contenders for Tokyo, is experience and who is able to put it together for the big moments.

On that measure alone, I think the Brownlees (especially Alistair) and Gomez are the favourites. Mola has shown time and again that he had trouble delivering during those big important races. Even if the last WTS finals he finished on the podium (awesome result), he was still beaten by Vincent even though he was the overwhelming favourite. Mario has never been able to deliver at the Olympics (yet). Vincent Luis, on the other hand, even if he seems to have turned a corner and shown us that he can target a big event and deliver (those last two years winning the grand final), there's still somewhat a bit of mystery how he can handle the pressure of the Olympic Games.

No matter what happens, it'll be exciting to watch it all unfold in the next year and a half+. Just a bummer that the Tokyo course is uninteresting (and Paris, and L.A. too). I don't understand how this can't be top priority for the ITU (put on a course that will do the race justice). If it's too hard to find such courses, just change the format to Enduro then (SBRSBR).

it was one of his last 3 OLYMPIC races, which is what i said (i don't care about his sprint race because he is a worse sprinter and tokyo isn't a sprint).

so now your arguments for why you think gomez will win the gold are because (1) he is gomez (how did that concept work out for carl lewis in 1992 in the 100 and 200?), (2) races are unpredictable (if they are so unpredictable, then how can you be predicting with such confidence what someone who will be 37 will be doing in 2 years?) and (3) two tennis players, who are 32 and 37 years old and who play a skill racquet sport that doesn't involve an all-out 10k at the end of it, still are successful. i sure wish i could take the other side of your bets.

I’m suggesting that he could (conditional) do that becauses ITU race scenarios change season by season and Gomez has won in both scenarios

We had several years a front pack breakaway (BB brothers, Alesandro Fabian, Richard Varga, Gomez and others, and in 2017 and 2018 big groups together in T2.

With 2 full seasons before Tokyo, to predict that Plan A will be a big group in T2 is too risky, but that big groups could be the smart bet TODAY.

Is it impossible that Blummenfelt could try a breakaway with Gomez?

I’m just opened to several scenarios, but as I said, will see another perspective after Bermudas

Pretty sure that it’s my fault with my english Yoda-Style and not a lack of your reading skills.


I’m NOT arguing that Gomez is gonna win the gold. I’m arguing that be 37 will not be a problem to try to be fighting for the medals. Maybe he gets the gold or maybe he gets the 9th, but if Gomez is in Tokyo, my bet finish in the pontoon and luckily I’ll be jumping in my couch to see a Gold-Silver-Bronze for Spain and a gold for Spain Team Relay (but I’m 99% sure that this will not be final results...)

As this is a never ending story, I will continue writing in this post after Bermudas Race.

My question was what tactic do you think gets Gomez to the medal on the Tokyo course? Because every tactic has a very real consequence. IE- your suggesting Blum goes in a break w/ Gomez. Ok great. So what's the consequence of that? Well considering Blum pretty much swims with most of the other top runners in the non-front pack (chase pack), it likely means the chase has caught the break and then Blum/Gomez is trying a break against like 30 guys (or atleast likely all the main contenders, is that fair assessment). It's going to be rare to see Blum drop the whole chase group catch Gomez and then attack the front group. So is the entire front group going to let Blum/Gomez ride off? I'd wager no, but will they try? I can almost gurantee you people will attempt attacks every lap and every major technical point in that race. But with it being an uninspiring course, it's likely to just be swept up. What athletes in ITU have been able to ride away from the front group? Handful of athletes? What athletes in the Olympics when everyone is primed and on point?

So that's why I'm curious how you guys seeing Gomez making a medal. If it's simply because he's Gomez...that's cool.


So I get it, your thinking Gomez is going to have this great rally and do well because well he's Gomez and he's one of the GOATS. That's cool, I wont poke at that idea anymore. Just hoping to hear how he was going to out run guys that are out running him now with the added caveat that he's getting older while the others are still in their "prime". And yes 1-2 people is going to have a "bad" day that day. It happens every olympics where someone we think should finish top 3, top 5, just has a piss poor performance.

But imo on a course with a very uninspiring bike course, it's a tall order for Gomez to out run the top guys who are the current ITU studs. Is that fair to end on? It'll be fun and it's great to have him back. Always good to have a legend back in your corner. Whether he gets a medal, finishes 8th, 15th it's good to have an athlete of that caliber on the circuit. It's just unfortunate that on a Tokyo course his advantage is likely nulled.

So it'll be fun to watch how all this progresses.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Let's do look at it... he was right there until the end coming off winning 70.3 Worlds the weekend before... I wondered how he'd do and he was right there. Mola dropped off as well but he worked hard on the bike as he was in a chase pack the first lap or two. It was an interesting day running on mixed surfaces, cool air temps... and Gomez was there until the end.

On thread topic I'll never bet against him but Tokyo isn't an awesome course for Gomez.

The evolution of race tactics always has a large element of unpredictability, that is what makes interesting sports interesting. This is why a road cycling stage is more interesting than a time trial. In Rio, Jorgensen was the heavy favorite. Not only that but really everyone knew that if you started the run even with a small lead, she would win. But the tactic to beat her was obvious: isolate her on the bike and break away over the top of the climb and onto the descent. But it didn’t happen. There were real hard attacks in the first few laps and she was dangling a bit but every other lady closed down anything and then when Sparig arrived everyone just watched her and just waited for her to break the race open. Jorgensen was then able to follow the pack easily.

So you want a tactical scenario where Javi wins? How about everyone knows AB and Blum are going to try to get away on the bike and so everyone follows them every time they move. But Blum just keeps trying because he is a beast. But Javi, he never attacks. Plus he’s old. So when he counterattacks on Blum’s 15th move everyone watches AB, who gesticulates wildly for some other knob (is that appropriate British slang?) to follow and Javi rides away to a margin only Mola can run down. (People on ST gripe about how the TV motorcycle was too close but he keeps his medal anyway.). Will that happen? I doubt it? But we will be watching and hoping something like that does.

Is Blum pulling the chase pack to the front before he's going to do all these moves in your scenario?

Or is he shockingly going to make the front select swim group (which I don't think he's ever done).


IE your scenario has 28 guys watching AB/Blum attack the group and then everyone sits in while Gomez just rides off the front? And he gets enough of a gap to out run all the guys who let him get that lead?

That's your scenario?

ETA: I guess you do get credit, I did ask for scenarios so thanks for the entertaining one.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Never said that. I will check my writing skills.



I said that you are SURE (what means reality?) that Gomez cannot beat those men, and I say that´s your opinion, based in statistics that I could agree, but that´s not a fact. That´s a prediction in the most possible scenario (Plan A).

As I said, I cannot make predictions about Plan A, B, or C when Gomez has no ranking yet, AB seems to be out, Varga is not making differences in T1. I place you to make this fun predictions about scenarios in 15 months or at least after Gomez´s comeback

I do not coach ITU Male athletes (but women ITU athletes and LD male) so I just watch ITU male races as a spanish fan hoping to have the best result possible

https://www.youtube.com/embed/zmLXJ0RBkGE

What’s the recap for those non-Spanish speaking ppl? I heard Yokohama ?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The problem here isn't ability, it's suitability... Gomez has the ability that in the right circumstances, he's still a legit podium threat. But the suitability of the toyko course for him is extremely low. Similarly for Blummenfelt, if I were him, I'd be hoping for a medal in Tokyo, but betting on 2024 hoping that the course is more inspired...

In terms of tactics, it's hard to predict the exact unfolding of a race, because that comes down to who feels like what on race day, and the conditions... My only hope for Tokyo is that there are insane cross winds for the bike, and we get echelons and gutter riding, otherwise, the bike might be nap time while watching the broadcast (not the least because of the time difference)... Will there be breaks, yes, will a break make it to T2, less likely. The constitution of those breaks are harder to predict, because it comes down to performance on the day. I will predict that we have at least one to two lesser known athletes in the early break of the swim... Like Stornes in Bermuda, you'll get some stud swimmers that we haven't seen that much at the pointy end on the WTS, who realize that gambling on an early break is their only shot at a medal (this was effectively what Schoeman did in Rio... he was an established FOP swimmer, but with sporadic individual results)... I think that we'll need some adverse conditions to keep a break clear on that course all the way to T2 involving any contenders... It's not impossible, I'm really hoping that there's epic conditions to make the race more exciting, but if I were betting, I'd say that you'll have repeated break attempts, which will result in a killer fast ride (I'd guess if it's a calm day, the contender pack will split in the 52min ish ballpark or faster with the hyper aggression (probably a tad slower for the strong swimmers, and a tad faster for those who have to chase on)), and then it'll come down to a dash for cash as to who can run on fried legs... If there's epic rains as we've seen in Yokohama before, or killer winds, or killer swells on the swim, then all bets are off...

I don't think this type of course will result in fried legs coming out of T2. I actually think it's going to result in very fast run splits. It's too flat and while technical in places, it's going to lead to big pack riding *more than likely*. And yes if the conditions are shit like 28mph wind and rainstorm, yes all that goes out the window then it's break pushing to maintain what I think a lead they can get to T2.


Probaly the whole key to Gomez's success will be the presence of his 2 biggest rivals- Brownlee Brothers. If they are there they have atleast 2 guys that arent afraid to put their head in the wind and "motivate" the others in the break to do the same at suicide pace. Without them I think there is just a difference in the mentality.....I don't know if anyone in ITU has that same "ride til you die" mentality. And no I'm not saying the front group now is "sitting in", I'm just saying there is a distinctness about a AB led front pack and a non-AB led front pack.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

He came into Yokohama with a tooth ache if memory serves me right... 9th is pretty good IMO. He finished 2nd overall in 2017 in spite of focusing on 70.3 and some health issues.

I don't necessarily think Tokyo suits him but I wouldn't bet against him, even at 37... he gets on the bike with a small group of swim-bikers and gaps the field by 1:00... game on!

One of us will be right, I'm not sure which. Either the ride is quite easy for folks sitting in and everybody has fresh legs in T2, or because of the incessant attempts to try and break clear, the pace will be so elevated, that those who don't get ridden out of the pack will all have fried legs (albeit on a much harder course, if you look at the ladies race at WTS Montreal last year, the chase group rode across the to the break, but by the end, it was more or less a breakaway, because the pack was clipping so hard, anyone who wasn't super strong on the bike had long since been dropped out the back, you can look no further than someone like Sophie Coldwell who hung onto the group, but who looked like a ghost, and was a shell of herself by the time she crossed the finish line)...

I'm hoping for said epic conditions, so we end up with a race that surprises the hell out of all of us... And yes, Gomez's chances improve drastically with two healthy Brownlees on the start, because you have big day racers, who aren't afraid to stick their faces in the wind and race to win, as opposed to the majority of the bunch who are likely racing not to lose...

he gets on the bike with a small group of swim-bikers and gaps the field by 1:00... game on!

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2017 WTS season w/ Gomez in the race


Abu Dhabi (olympic) - 1st overall- made front pack and came into T2 w/ 1:10 lead on chase pack (sunny weather)
Gold Coast (sprint)- 4th overall-made front pack but chase + front came into T2 together (sunny weather)
Yoko (olympic)- 9th overall- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (pouring rain storm)
Hamburg (sprint)- 5th- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (sunny weather)
Edmonton (sprint)- 6th- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (sunny weather)
Montreal (olympic)- 1st overall- made front pack (+ Blum) and came into T2 w/ 0:58s lead on chase pack (sunny weather)
GF Rotterdam (olympic)- 4th overall- front pack + chase pack came into T2 together (overcast/damp conditions)

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Oh I think some people will be fresher than others. A guy like Mola, the moment he gets from the chase group to the main group is shutting it down completely. You wont see him the rest of the telecast til T2, he'll sit in 12th spot the rest of the ride. But a guy like Blum or Van Riel is going to constantly want to push effort. Brownlee is going to want to push the efforts til probaly the groups come together, then it's sorta just watching others. Birtwhistle isn't going to put his nose in the wind anymore than he needs too. Luis likewise, he's going to want to be an active participant in the break, but he's also going to be "smart".

So even if "surges" occur because someone is trying to break off every chance possible (which I think will happen), there's going to be guys that are "sitting" in on a course like what we likely will see and you don't really "break" a group of 30 on simply surging hard. Yes that can put pain in the legs, but this isn't really imo going to be a "punishing" bike course. I just dont see it, I dont think Yokohoma is punishing course, and I'm guessing Tokyo will be similiar. Athens was a punishing course, London wasnt. Tokyo I just dont see as a punishing course where it's survival of the fittest.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

stornes isn't a stud swimmer and was 24th out of the water in bermuda.

schoeman didn't gamble with a break in rio. he swam FOP, landed in the lead break coming out of t1, hung on for dear life on each lap of the bike and then pulled out the run of his life to hold off mola and murray (with maybe some extra help). he did not take a gamble like stornes did in bermuda with a 3-person break on the bike.

I think it could very well be that he misses the thrill of itu racing. You are racing shoulder on shoulder with your competition week after week. I like following long course too but it is not as exciting to watch (let alone race) as itu. So for a guy like Gomez who has been racing that way year after year and being at the very front for a very long time I think it could be hard to train and live without it. Escpecially when you still feel that you have "it" in you and only this one thing is missing.

For me Gomez will not be the favourite. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him podium. Yes there are very fast young guns out there. But in an Olympic Triathlon a lot needs to go well. From the fast runners one could be injured, another one chokes and a third one will have an off day. Stuff happens and Gomez will be right there should anyone show weekness.

It's still a mainly aerobic sport and not a 100m dash, so training age can bring you a far way.

And even as a swiss I didn't really see spririg taking silver halfway into the Rio cycle. I believed there were too many running studs emerging. Now, of course Rio wasn't flat but she still got into T2 with a lot of the runners still in the game.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Fair point. There will certainly be a fried gradient... The guys who are backing their run are likely to be on the less fried end, because they will be racing not to lose the race before T2, rather than those who know they need to race to win before T2, because if Mola is off with a sniff, the writing is on the wall...

In terms of Yokohoma as a reference, based on the maps, Tokyo looks to be even less selective than Yokohoma. At least Yokohoma is a smidge more technical, that if you get a few drops of rain, it can separate those who can handle their bikes well (case and point Flora doing Flora in 2017, which if memory serves was the biggest gap to 2nd place in WTS history)...), from those who can't... Looking at the map, there are only a couple of points where I can see someone using the course to create a gap... The rest is going to be hail mary suicide attacks... Anything else will have to form on the swim/T1...

I think (epic conditions aside) it'll probably take a gap out of T1 in the 2min ballpark with some heavy firepower (such as Luis, Gomez, the Brownlees, Van Riel, etc.) to give a break a chance of upsetting the podium before T2...

Course width is an important factor in how the bike ride plays out. Yokohama is super wide with plenty of space for the pack to tightly bunch. From the map it looks like the Tokyo course has lots of corners and zig-zags, but the lane widths are pretty generous. However if the organizers decide to put up barriers within the car lanes it could be much more narrow leading to long single file lines. This can sap legs with the accordion effect out of the corners. I guess we will get the first taste at the test event. But recall that the race at the test event rarely plays out like the big dance.

Tokyo is still 1 and a half seasons away, a lot can change. in the top 6 at the moment 2 are still quite young Birtwhistle 23 and Blumm 24, they will still be improving a lot between now and Tokyo, getting closer to endurance peak age. No doubt other young guys will be moving up also, and the guys who are around 30ish now, may be needing to work even harder to avoid slowing a bit (injury risk). Interesting to watch, but I will be very susrprised if Gomez is on the podium more than once in his run for points, if he is I might be querying the testing protocal, because, you know, age stops for no-one, its natural.

So if we're playing the hypothetical "how could he win" (given that on paper he currently is a long shot) this is my scenario:

Stud group of swimmers breaks away. Brownlee, Luis, Kanute, French guy X, Schoeman, Gomez, etc.

They bike with the knowledge that they have to hold off the Molas of the world. The chase group takes a bit of time getting organized and never catches them.

Ali's not fully run healthy because only the balls of his toes touch the ground and his lower limbs explode. Johnny can't hang. At this point the main threat is Luis. He forgets that killer edge he's shown in the Grand Finals/ Super League and reverts to 2015/ 2016 form where he can't quite close it out. Gomez pulls away on lap 3 and avoids Vincent's kick.

Any better scenarios out there?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Pretty much, I'm going to guess Gomez to medal needs 45s head start on the chase pack of athletes and needs one of the Brothers to have an bad day (assuming both brothers, Gomez, Luis make front group) . However that needs to happen, that's imo how he medals. If T2 is 30+ men together, I'm going to go with my 1st post prediction of closer to 8th-10th finish.

ETA: I won't post anymore on it but I just cant see a 37+ year old who's aging out of the sport and going up against guys who are aging into their best form, I just dont see how he beats them in a heads up run race. Gomez brought in a new style of racing with AB and they put medal winners out to pasture in the process, so one day the shoe falls on the other foot, and one day Gomez will be the guy where the sport has passed him by. It's not disrespect, it's just sports. #life #athletics

He's probaly come back to ITU cus it's just more of a fun life. IM racing kinda sucks. You race for a paycheck once every 6 weeks or 2 months or 3 months, while ITU/DL you can race for a paycheck 2-3 times a month (they also usually race domestically for teams in FGP or GB leagues). Granted I dont think Kona was a disappointment, I think it was a good result for where he was. You sometimes just need to take your lumps and learn more than go into a race and think your a podium and if you don't it's a failure. If that was the goal or plan, then I think that's mighty big bar to set. Gomez is triathlon royalty. He can name any job he wants when he retires. I think all this means is that IM just isn't what he wants to do. I also think it'll be really hard to go back to IM if he spends the next 2 years going ITU. I think this move back just means it's more not his cup of tea. Going from ITU style training to IM training it's just different. Hell he's going to have raced for what 4th olympics (3rd cus he missed Rio, but you know what i mean) if he makes Tokyo....that's one hell of a long successful career.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

This is very true, and there are more norwegians to worry about as well! Iden, Stornes and Blu make for a dangerous group. I think that Iden will surprise many!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I’d think the Norweigens would need some sort of bike break as well. As awesome as Blum’s style is, I just can’t see him medaling in Tokyo if everyone comes off the bike together. He’s a fantastic athlete, but as of today I’d bet Mika, Luis and...someone else.

Not sure Schoeman can do it again. The swim and bike gave him enough of a lead in Rio, but Murray was closing in. Birtwhistle might have the legs, but he doesn’t seem to be a big stage guy quite yet. Maybe one of the 3 London medalists? Some young guy who’s building endurance?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Which is why I said Iden ;) He is a very fast runner and just 22 so will hopefully have built some more endurance by next year. But generally I agree that they would like to see a break.
I'm just really hoping that Alistair races and is in good shape as I want to see him open the first k sub 2:50 like in London, pure magic to watch!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Didn’t realize Iden was so young. Wow!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

 
well of course not. But come on, you know these people. I guarantee if you hook Gomez up to a lie-detector and ask him if he going to win the Gold medal in Tokoyo he is going to say yes. That is why he is going for it. Because he believes in his heart and soul that he is going to win.

Now does AB come back? Nah. I think that ship has sailed.

I think Dubai will be a good speed test for him, if he can outrun Blu he knows he still has it.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

This is why I mentioned Birtwhistle earlier, still young at 23 and building endurance and by Tokyo will have a lot more experience.

For sure, he absolutely thinks he has a chance. I'm a huge fan of his but I'm also a realist... we will see if he's capable of Gold after seeing him race a few times. The field in the ITU/Worldcup is somewhat dynamic and as I said earlier I'm not sure Yokohama is a great course for him, especially if it turns into a 30 person group ride.

AB is a threat if he can come in with some "proper training" and uninjured. He's another guy I wouldn't bet against until he shows that he can't compete with the current field.

Is this confirmed?

That's a shame, think I'd rather see him in Kona this year, however its probably going to sway A.Brownlee to come back to Oly distance now which is what I wanted.

Being injured for Rio must have really eaten Gomez up, obviously still playing on his mind, I don't see him as having much of a chance if any of a Gold.

He probably needs both Brownlee's fit and firing on all cylinders to have a chance of a medal in Tokyo (which judging 2018 is a massive ask) which then probably rules him out of a Gold as he's probably not going to outrun Ali (A fit one) and maybe not Jonny also Luis who will be in any front pack coming out of T2.

Yes https://triathlonworld.com/...stance-racing-147053, but actually BE13 just posted that Alistair is continuing going long this year so Kona doesn't seem impossible for him. Kind of think he wants to win Kona on his first go just to best Gomez once again ;)
Agree on Rio, it was also prob his best chance of beating Ali as well, in London he was simply too good.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

AB is not going to go to Tokyo because Gomez is there.

He'd only be swayed by folk who he thinks could help him get gold, not sure he views Gomez as strong enough on the bike these days to be significant horsepower in a break that stays away. It's going to be very hard to stay away on that course anyway.

I was convinced AB would do Tokyo for the relay, strong GB women and chance to win gold with his brother. Then the individual as a no lose hail Mary. But relay is pure speed, so now having doubts with him on the 70.3 Dubai start list as he'd need to really drill speed from the off - even the prime AB was never as good over the sprint distance, let alone relay leg distances.

If AB is going to 'target' anyone I'd put Frodo on top of the list. He'll be smarting from 70.3 worlds defeat by someone he more or less chased out of ITU.

So AB is racing an IM (I guess caveat is he has to qualify) 10 months before the Olympics? Well that sounds interesting, of course I cant see any males auto qualifying for the olympics and thus keeping him off the team, but doing all that endurance work and trying to double w/ the almost assuredly team relay....good luck with that. Of course the U.S. has their own sorta drama with one of our top relay guys (Kanute) having not raced an individual ITU race this qualification period either. #lovethedrama

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'm prety sure Ali won more sprint distance Tri's than lost, don't know where this myth come from?

I have a vague recollection of AB saying in post race interviews that JB was better than him over the sprint distance. So I will hypothesize that the myth came from Ali himself. But yeah...it is a myth. He has demonstrated more than adequacy at sprint triathloning.

Keep in mind he's not raced a sprint distance in nearly 4 years except for Commonwealth Games (10th there on what seemed like no training). Combine that with his injuries and now his LC training, he's losing top end speed every month he trains more aerobic based vs guys who are racing the sprint distances pretty much every WTS event these days and they are the athletes in their ITU "prime". Of course it's a no brainer to go LC training because that will help his injury issues (I still contend it's AB and that "injuries" will stick with him whatever route he goes), and it's likely the healthiest route. But it's not the route to win medals in ITU, there is becoming far too much specificity in each sport that you can't really "cross over" and perform really really well at both spectrums of the sport. ETA: I should also add ITU's "worldly" schedule was a major turn off for AB ever since about 2014 (he also hated the "Series" champion vs the 1 day world championship winner take all), as he thought it was putting way too much on the athletes to travel to what 4-5 continents to race within the series, and then they went from a yearly 6ish race schedule 8 years ago to now what 9-10 WTS events a year.

So combine AB's injuries that are severity of hip issues and achilles and you can understand that "sprint" racing just likely isn't his wheelhouse anymore. But as I said previously, no other male in team GB is going to get an auto-spot so as long as he can get what is it a top 140 or top 115 ranking, they can "choose" him to the team (and it would be a no brainer). He pretty much has zero to lose at this point. He's the greatest 1 day racer in the history of this sport. It doesn't matter how good or bad he does in Tokyo, and team GB just by the guys/gals on their relay squad will be in medal contention. It's not like a Spain that has only 1 female or Norway who has what very little female presence.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

it also has to be said that ali is still a celebrity in the UK, and his presence on the squad would sell tickets. that's maybe a bit cynical, but the olympics is big business and it would be in the best interests of the IOC, Japan, and team GB to have ali in the race.

-mike

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

So this thread had me recheck the last chapter of Maccas book. This guy tried to come back to itu and qualify for London after a whole dacade of none but ironman training. He writes about an 8 x 1000m tracksession before the London test event. He ran the first 6 reps all between 2:42 and 2:39 before his hamstring gave in.

Well, if thats true and Macca could turn his wheels that fast, than so can Gomez. Gomez is not 39, did only one year of ironman training (not 10) and was on another level as a 10k runner than Macca ever was.

Again, I'm not saying he is the favourite. But I would never count him out as a medal contender.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

I can't see Gomez with a Gold medal round his neck in Tokyo, he would need the stars to align.

I wouldn't rule him out of winning a 6th ITU World title though! I'd say that was well within his grasp.

I'd say at his age he needs to pick his races and maybe he needs to keep away from 70.3 also, won't do him any favours especially if he's mixing it with Frodo and Ali! That race seems to have wrote all 3 of them off for the rest of the year.

I wouldn't rule him out of winning a 6th ITU World title though! I'd say that was well within his grasp.

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I would especially as most of the WTS events are now the sprint distance. If he's going to "cherry pick" his schedule he most assuredly aint going to score well enough while other guys likely will be able to "offset" scores. You don't win world champs by only racing the standard distance races, that's just not going to score you well enough, when it means he then cant have one off race.


And to the other comment about Gomez being a "contender". By default Gomez will be a contender. By simply being a top front pack swim/biker he's going to almost assuredly finish top 10 (I've said between 8-10th). I've said this almost exclusively because he's aging, Tokyo is likely to be a very non-technical course and the fact that the top 5 runners (I'm not even counting Brownlees in that list) are almost assuredly coming off the bike together, and so do I see Gomez outrunning Birtwhistle/Mola/Blum/Murray/Luis; no I dont. I'm going to even go as far as say someone from the U.S. is going to finish in that 8th-12th placing due to the top run nature of the event. But by default Gomez is a "contender", I just don't think he's odds on favorite to podium like he was in Beijing, London, Rio (before injury). To say he wouldn't have podiumed would have made no sense. IMO to now say he will podium for a 3rd olympics (likely 4th if had raced Rio) to me makes no sense. That's objective as I can be with it.

2 seasons ago when all the big boys were together at events he couldn't outrun them then, he's suddenly going to be able to now? How? But is he a "contender", sure he is. He's a front pack athlete that can still outrun most of the front pack. What I'm talking about though is the 1% of the 1%'ers. So that's simply where I see he's slipped, but as I said this isn't some contreversial statement, he's put aging athletes out to pasture, just like some of the new ones will do to him and AB.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

How many are at sprint distance next year? Having Gomez back is more firepower in that front pack.

He was dipping his toe into 70.3 a lot in his last couple of years in ITU as well as injuries, I'm not making him my favourite to win the whole thing but I'd definitely say injury free he'll be in the mix top 3/4 and in with a shout come the GF.

March 8-9th
Abu Dhabi sprint
Abu Dhabi MTR Series

April 27-28
Bermuda Olympic

May 18-19 (begin of 2nd olympic cycle year)
Yoko Olympic

June 8-9
Leeds Olympic
Nottingham MTR Series (june 15)

June 28-29
Montreal Sprint

July 6-7
Hamburg Sprint (they don't have the MTR world's listed with this event so far)

July 20-21
Edmonton Sprint
Edmonton MTR Series

Aug 29-Sept 1
GF Lausanne Oly



WTS Standings- 5 best scores + GF score.....athletes can "offset" by racing more, etc. When athletes only race the bare min. they basically can't affford a bad result or they'll be out of it essentially. It's why many times the GF is never even close to being a "good" finish. It's always X can finish in 8th place and still win, etc. So most of the time the pressure is off. It's a big annoyance to AB back to even when they first doing it this way.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yes, seems far too many sprints there, not very Gomez friendly, why are ITU throwing so many Sprints in?

Sure there only used to be one or two a season max.

Doubt he did that session, that would indicate a way sub 14 which I do not believe he was capable of even when he was younger.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

So that post Tokyo Sprint distance can be the new “standard” distance. That’s my guess and hunch and yes I was told MTR was going to be in Olympics as early as 2013 from PTB in the sport. So you can kinda see the writing on the wall w different movements.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Honestly, I doubt it too. That would be a pure track guy or marathoner of high caliber workout.

Was wondering what you guys thought. Mola might be able to do that but Macca was no Mola level runner.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Some of this has to do with the MTR series, part of this also has to do with how tightly condensed the WTS series is this year. When races are close together they tend to opt for sprint distance versus when there's more downtime, they tend to be standard distances...

Hamburg is MTR worlds again, and yes Edmonton has to be sprint as well, because of the MTR the next day. Leeds was able to stay standard distance, because the MTR in Nottingham is a week apart from it... Montreal is a new venue this year (not far from the old venue, just two quay's over...) and the courses may be more conducive to a sprint race (I'm not positive, since I haven't seen the courses yet). But with the Grand final being 3-4 weeks earlier than it traditionally has been held, the WTS schedule is more condensed, which may be why we're seeing a couple more sprint distances this season...

3 major Races; 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

All OD
All with a pack of 20 or more in T2

In Leeds running faster than the "magnificent 7" but Birthwistle

4th Overall In World Series Championship with 3 races.

#STUD

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I hold my hands up and i'll say I didn't see him doing as well as he's done so far, I did think he'd do better than some was saying though.