Gomez has been hiding injuries for a long time. We even don't know if he was 100% at Kona.
After London OG, he starts to run massive volume and was really successful... But with the Rio build up...

I have the feeling that he wants to be back on the ITU circuit only because he is feeling that his body is back on track. We have the same phenomenon with Alistair Brownlee. When he is 100%, no one can beat him and actually, I don't believe that we have seen an athlete with higher athletic performance in the 3 sports.

Honestly, we can say that Mola or Luis are now better but on my personal view, with no Brownlee and Gomez, the race dynamics were really different and probably, less competitive.

BTW, what's up with Alistair. Won't be shocked at all if he wins Tokyo...

BTW, what's up with Alistair. Won't be shocked at all if he wins Tokyo...

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Whoever is going to win I think is going to have to do it by outrunning every single stud runner from the start of T2. I just dont think Tokyo is technical enough course, but maybe it is and it forces Birthwhistle/Blummenfelt/Murray (I think Mola makes the front group) to burn all their matches, but I tend to favor them catching on and having a 30 min remaining hand holding session on that type of course. Then it's a drag race among all the runners. I just dont see Brownlee/Gomez/Luis led front group staying away. But that's why they race, it just would shock me if it's an tactical bike leg. So whoever is going to win is going to have to run a smoking fast run, and imo that's just not Gomez anymore.....injuries or non-injuries be damned.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No. I’m JUST posting age medalist. I’m not a wizard, just a coach that thinks that chsnces for a medal at 37 being JGN is not utopic

BTW. JGN will be 37 in Tokyo.

So, 28% of his WTS starts after a long term get a medal.

Mario Mola; 87 % of his starts in 2018 WTS get a medal
Vincent Luis; 50%
Richard Murray; 50%
KB; 44%
Jacob B.42%
Fernando Alarza; 16%
Alistair B; 3 major ITU Races; 0%

Not in the 3 favourites, but would yo bet against JGN 3 to 1?

So, 28% of his WTS starts after a long term get a medal.

Mario Mola; 87 % of his starts in 2018 WTS get a medal
Vincent Luis; 50%
Richard Murray; 50%
KB; 44%
Jacob B.42%
Fernando Alarza; 16%
Alistair B; 3 major ITU Races; 0%
Gomez: No major ITU races,; 0%

Not in the 3 favourites, but would yo bet against JGN 3 to 1?

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Check my bolded, or tell me who he's going to beat in 1.5 years from now at age 37. Who's he going to out run when the very liklihood he's going to have to outrun every single person that is in this list and in his last year of ITU competition he more often then not WASN'T able to out run them? But 1.5 years from now he's suddenly going to? What trend are you looking at? That he did it 1 time out of 7 in Montreal, only to 1 month later get beaten by guys on that list?


I'm stoked Gomez is back in it, I think he's the most efficient and gentleman in the sport. He's a stud. I just think at some point your not good enough to win and/or podium. That's not a knock, at one point Michael Jordan couldn't hack it either, he had to bow to the young guns. So like I said, for everyone telling me he's going to podium, how? 2 years ago he regularly was beaten by the top guys. He then left the very specificity that he needs in order to run well all the while others improved their game, but he's going to come back and podium?


Help me see the light because the stats/results aren't showcasing what yall are suggesting. ETA: But if your sitting on that he has a "shot" at podium, that's true for about likely about what 9 people going into that race, but you wouldnt stake your claim with every athlete would you? Of course not, some have much better odds than others, so again that's how I feel w Gomez. He's low down on the odds in my book. But I guess if your just saying he has a "chance", that's kinda not really all the difficult to say (and so yes by default I'll give you he has a "shot" at a podium, just low odds, so if your saying that's enough to stake your claim that he'll podium- cool).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I just wanted to spitball some numbers. If Gomez races the top level Olympic distance calendar between now and the end of qualifying, that comprises probably 6 races. (3 WTS this year, test event, GF, and 1 early season 2020.). If he averages a 3rd place finish that gives him around 5000 points. It is hard to predict what 30th place on the list will be. But looking at Rio, which had similar point allocation rules, that is 17th. Well within the top 30. I will argue that anyone ranking within the top 30 has more than demonstrated competence to make the Olympic roster, and then the mater simply falls to a national federation’s selection process. By this measure, Gomez (or AB) wouldn’t be taking a spot from another athlete they would have clearly earned a place for their federation and then the federation decides who goes.

TLDR: Top athletes like Gomez or Brownlees need maybe 5-7 races to ensure a high ranking.

Spain Criteria

Being in the top 140 Olympic Ranking;

1st Spot; Best Spanish Athlete in Tokio Test Event 2019 (being top 3) OR Best Spanish Athlete in Olympic ranking by 31/12/2019 being Top-8

2nd Spot; Best Spanish Athlete in Olympic ranking by 31/12/2019 being Top-15

3rd Spot; Technical Decision considering Medal Options in Team Relay.

he was 4th, 1st and 9th in his last 3 ITU olympic distance races in 2017 and you think that he is going to be going top 3 in his next 6 in 2019 and 2020, which include the GF and test event where everyone will be there and in top tapered form?

4-1-6.

I do not think about future performances, just saying that I will not bet against this man.

he was 9th in yokohama (not 6th).

i gladly will take the other side of any bets you want to make about him winning the gold in tokyo for all of the reasons stated by multiple people on this thread.

Yokohama is not one of his three last races. He raced 6 more times after Yokohama 2017.

I’m not defending that he would be the favourite for the gold (that’s Mola, obviously) but arguing that he will be in the Tokio’s pontoon thinking in winning the gold, and my bet is that he will be fighting in medal positions with 5-6 athletes in the km 8. What will be happen then? If i would know I would bet all my savings, but I never bet in sports, nor say that Rafa Nadal or Roger Federer are old.

As a coach do you think Tokyo will create an front pack breakaway that can keep several top runners likely away or will a large peloton come into T2 together where all the top runners all start the run together?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

As coach; would you have predicted that a norwegian (Casper Stornes) could make a soloride and winning Bermudas?

Would you have predicted that front pack breakaway in Athens 2004 without Ivan Raña?

Would you have predicted a Jan Frodeno win in Beijing?

Would you have predicted Lisa Norden in photo finish against Spirig?

In 5 Olympic Games predictions were OK just in London and Rio. (Even in Rio I was expecting, not predicting a Mola’s Medal, not Schoeman’s)

I do not make predictions, just coach and make plan A, B and C in different tactical scenarios for my athletes.

I do not make predictions, just coach and make plan A, B and C in different tactical scenarios for my athletes.

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EXACTLY....but you make plans based on how the other athletes around you race and how it affects you. So you do make predictions and tactics for each prediction.

All I'm doing is talking out the tactics by applying the stats from Gomez and how that then formulates into plans and results. Your suggesting he's going to do it because he's Gomez. I'm betting against it based on stats of how he's performed with all the guys around him in the last year he raced in 2017 + tactical scenarios that I think will happen.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

luarca...nz media were predicting a front pack breakaway in Athens well ahead of the Olympic tri, with the nzers setting the pace. although can't recall anything about Rana not making the break.

Another thing to consider when comparing all the different contenders for Tokyo, is experience and who is able to put it together for the big moments.

On that measure alone, I think the Brownlees (especially Alistair) and Gomez are the favourites. Mola has shown time and again that he had trouble delivering during those big important races. Even if the last WTS finals he finished on the podium (awesome result), he was still beaten by Vincent even though he was the overwhelming favourite. Mario has never been able to deliver at the Olympics (yet). Vincent Luis, on the other hand, even if he seems to have turned a corner and shown us that he can target a big event and deliver (those last two years winning the grand final), there's still somewhat a bit of mystery how he can handle the pressure of the Olympic Games.

No matter what happens, it'll be exciting to watch it all unfold in the next year and a half+. Just a bummer that the Tokyo course is uninteresting (and Paris, and L.A. too). I don't understand how this can't be top priority for the ITU (put on a course that will do the race justice). If it's too hard to find such courses, just change the format to Enduro then (SBRSBR).

it was one of his last 3 OLYMPIC races, which is what i said (i don't care about his sprint race because he is a worse sprinter and tokyo isn't a sprint).

so now your arguments for why you think gomez will win the gold are because (1) he is gomez (how did that concept work out for carl lewis in 1992 in the 100 and 200?), (2) races are unpredictable (if they are so unpredictable, then how can you be predicting with such confidence what someone who will be 37 will be doing in 2 years?) and (3) two tennis players, who are 32 and 37 years old and who play a skill racquet sport that doesn't involve an all-out 10k at the end of it, still are successful. i sure wish i could take the other side of your bets.

I’m suggesting that he could (conditional) do that becauses ITU race scenarios change season by season and Gomez has won in both scenarios

We had several years a front pack breakaway (BB brothers, Alesandro Fabian, Richard Varga, Gomez and others, and in 2017 and 2018 big groups together in T2.

With 2 full seasons before Tokyo, to predict that Plan A will be a big group in T2 is too risky, but that big groups could be the smart bet TODAY.

Is it impossible that Blummenfelt could try a breakaway with Gomez?

I’m just opened to several scenarios, but as I said, will see another perspective after Bermudas

Pretty sure that it’s my fault with my english Yoda-Style and not a lack of your reading skills.


I’m NOT arguing that Gomez is gonna win the gold. I’m arguing that be 37 will not be a problem to try to be fighting for the medals. Maybe he gets the gold or maybe he gets the 9th, but if Gomez is in Tokyo, my bet finish in the pontoon and luckily I’ll be jumping in my couch to see a Gold-Silver-Bronze for Spain and a gold for Spain Team Relay (but I’m 99% sure that this will not be final results...)

As this is a never ending story, I will continue writing in this post after Bermudas Race.

My question was what tactic do you think gets Gomez to the medal on the Tokyo course? Because every tactic has a very real consequence. IE- your suggesting Blum goes in a break w/ Gomez. Ok great. So what's the consequence of that? Well considering Blum pretty much swims with most of the other top runners in the non-front pack (chase pack), it likely means the chase has caught the break and then Blum/Gomez is trying a break against like 30 guys (or atleast likely all the main contenders, is that fair assessment). It's going to be rare to see Blum drop the whole chase group catch Gomez and then attack the front group. So is the entire front group going to let Blum/Gomez ride off? I'd wager no, but will they try? I can almost gurantee you people will attempt attacks every lap and every major technical point in that race. But with it being an uninspiring course, it's likely to just be swept up. What athletes in ITU have been able to ride away from the front group? Handful of athletes? What athletes in the Olympics when everyone is primed and on point?

So that's why I'm curious how you guys seeing Gomez making a medal. If it's simply because he's Gomez...that's cool.


So I get it, your thinking Gomez is going to have this great rally and do well because well he's Gomez and he's one of the GOATS. That's cool, I wont poke at that idea anymore. Just hoping to hear how he was going to out run guys that are out running him now with the added caveat that he's getting older while the others are still in their "prime". And yes 1-2 people is going to have a "bad" day that day. It happens every olympics where someone we think should finish top 3, top 5, just has a piss poor performance.

But imo on a course with a very uninspiring bike course, it's a tall order for Gomez to out run the top guys who are the current ITU studs. Is that fair to end on? It'll be fun and it's great to have him back. Always good to have a legend back in your corner. Whether he gets a medal, finishes 8th, 15th it's good to have an athlete of that caliber on the circuit. It's just unfortunate that on a Tokyo course his advantage is likely nulled.

So it'll be fun to watch how all this progresses.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Let's do look at it... he was right there until the end coming off winning 70.3 Worlds the weekend before... I wondered how he'd do and he was right there. Mola dropped off as well but he worked hard on the bike as he was in a chase pack the first lap or two. It was an interesting day running on mixed surfaces, cool air temps... and Gomez was there until the end.

On thread topic I'll never bet against him but Tokyo isn't an awesome course for Gomez.

The evolution of race tactics always has a large element of unpredictability, that is what makes interesting sports interesting. This is why a road cycling stage is more interesting than a time trial. In Rio, Jorgensen was the heavy favorite. Not only that but really everyone knew that if you started the run even with a small lead, she would win. But the tactic to beat her was obvious: isolate her on the bike and break away over the top of the climb and onto the descent. But it didn’t happen. There were real hard attacks in the first few laps and she was dangling a bit but every other lady closed down anything and then when Sparig arrived everyone just watched her and just waited for her to break the race open. Jorgensen was then able to follow the pack easily.

So you want a tactical scenario where Javi wins? How about everyone knows AB and Blum are going to try to get away on the bike and so everyone follows them every time they move. But Blum just keeps trying because he is a beast. But Javi, he never attacks. Plus he’s old. So when he counterattacks on Blum’s 15th move everyone watches AB, who gesticulates wildly for some other knob (is that appropriate British slang?) to follow and Javi rides away to a margin only Mola can run down. (People on ST gripe about how the TV motorcycle was too close but he keeps his medal anyway.). Will that happen? I doubt it? But we will be watching and hoping something like that does.

Is Blum pulling the chase pack to the front before he's going to do all these moves in your scenario?

Or is he shockingly going to make the front select swim group (which I don't think he's ever done).


IE your scenario has 28 guys watching AB/Blum attack the group and then everyone sits in while Gomez just rides off the front? And he gets enough of a gap to out run all the guys who let him get that lead?

That's your scenario?

ETA: I guess you do get credit, I did ask for scenarios so thanks for the entertaining one.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Never said that. I will check my writing skills.



I said that you are SURE (what means reality?) that Gomez cannot beat those men, and I say that´s your opinion, based in statistics that I could agree, but that´s not a fact. That´s a prediction in the most possible scenario (Plan A).

As I said, I cannot make predictions about Plan A, B, or C when Gomez has no ranking yet, AB seems to be out, Varga is not making differences in T1. I place you to make this fun predictions about scenarios in 15 months or at least after Gomez´s comeback

I do not coach ITU Male athletes (but women ITU athletes and LD male) so I just watch ITU male races as a spanish fan hoping to have the best result possible

https://www.youtube.com/embed/zmLXJ0RBkGE