None, Euros was probably his only decent go at an ITU race, but he was still on like 3 weeks of run training, on a slow course, after a hard ride, and still managed 4th... I'd still wager a healthy AB can run sub 30... Can he produce a run like Mola did in Montreal, nope (that was insane), but from a break, he won't have to...

I wouldn't select him on a supersprint relay team over Alarza. Even he knows he doesn't have the speed. His announcement stated he isn't planning on racing any sprint races, only Olympic distance because he couldn't win them. If Spain are interested in the relay he wouldn't be their guy. he will be 38, that is getting way up there for this type speed.

That’s not really how it works. You don’t go long to extend your speed. You go long when your speed has pretty much ended and then work to endurance efficiency.

I mean if the plan was to win Kona in 1 year that’s one hell of a plan because as I said earlier I thought it was pretty evident he would “struggle” in year 1 in Kona. I certainly didn’t think he had the bike legs to run 2:40 off the bike in year 1 of Kona. I said he simply needed to go race, take his lumps and learn from it. Of course he *thought* he would win, a bunch of athletes think that but I also thought the reality was going to happen and it did.


But as I said itu federations can replace athletes who aren’t medal winners. So he has a shot at making Tokyo. That may be shitty circumstance but they set the rules so they can if they set standard of 1 spot being “disrection”. I just don’t think medal is in the cards for a what 38 year old in Tokyo.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

physiologically it should be impossible, he is great, but no one is that great they can outsmart father time. (naturally)
Alarza is the athlete that would have the most concerns. Is Gomez planning on taking his points spot, he isn't racing for all his own qualification points otherwise he would be racing all the season, not just cherry picking. Is he expecting to finish inside the top 30ish of a 2 year qualifying period with only 3 or 4 races? if not then he is planning on making the minimum points for qualification and then the federation handing him the spot someone else worked for, I hope this isn't the case.

I am a bit shocked by the news...but understandable.
1. He is supported by Banco Santander... I guess he must be on the radar...going back to ITU will help a bit
2. He does not enjoy IM as much as ITU but he knew he had to give it a try after missing Rio. It is the natural step, right?
3. He said he will prove himself in ITU till June... the olympic simulation is a good opportunity if he is still in good shape... if not...he will go for the IM worlds in 2020 but I dont discard he leaves the sport... before the end of this year..

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Doesn't have to be only an individual medal he's aiming for. MTR, while shorter which is theoretically against him, is a very different tactical game.
Spain don't have the same depth on the womens side, but if they can lift someone to being a competent leg 1 he would make sure they were in the mix for leg 2, then hand off to Routier and have a shot at setting Mola up for leg 4. The last thing any other country wants is to take Mola into a 1 mile run on an equal standing.

Women always go first.

https://www.triathlon.org/multisports/triathlon_mixed_relay

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

That's why i had him down for leg 2...

Ah sorry, I misread.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Sure makes going long the last year an even weirder choice, cus MTR is an even more extreme top end effort than individual sprint.

Then someone said he’s only doing the oly distance WTS events, doesn’t really make a lot of sense from a demands of competition standpoint.

Unless they are saying Spain will be so far back that Gomez is just going to have to go for broke to get them back in it for the last 2 legs.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

But if it’s any team to do this Spain is it because as I said in the itu thread I think the MTR last chance qualifier will play out waaaay differently than the regular MTR’s because it’s the non-qualifier nations only so tactically they will be in better situations to be at front.

So I think Spain pulls out their all stars for LCQ roster and gets 3 spots with their 4 in top 20 ranking. As I said since only 2 are top 10 the other 2 are liable to be cut and replaced by Gomez. So unless they say it’s top 3 ranked athletes as their pathway I think Gomez can “steal” a spot cus I don’t think his points will get him the spot on his merit alone.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think Gomez can “steal” a spot cus I don’t think his points will get him the spot on his merit alone.

Thats a very weird statement, dont you think? So if he comes back, get a couple podiums(or near) but ends up 4th in overall points, you pick the guy that never got top 10 but has more points??

We have had these discussions before on different countries qualifying procedures, especially ours here in the US. But I have no doubt that the Spanish federation under those circumstances(or even near them) will make the right choice, and give the spot to the guy that earns it, Gomez. Remember the goal at the games is to win medals, not to send the most consistent non top finisher who just happens to score more points. And its ok to use the point system for the top place, or even two, but when you have 3 spots, best to use them wisely. Perhaps even a domestic if the situation warrants..

No it's not a weird statement, it's an statement made by understanding the qualification process (funny enough I do know some stuff with ITU regardless if you want to give credit that I do). As I said everything you wrote in your paragraph I already wrote at the top of this thread. It's also why I used quotation marks around steal because he's going to merely "replace" the guy that' not ranked in the top 10 (Mola and Alarza are imo safe- barring major injury) because those guys aren't medal contenders and federations aren't into feel good stories.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Maybe he looked at the fact that he dedicated 6+ months towards one goal and went home with $0? All the while his ITU buddies were going around racing the ITU circuit then spent the fall traveling to exotic locations, having a blast earning very good money racing Super League...

As you mentioned father time is catching him so maybe he and his mangement think its much wiser to go short and get on the Macca train while it lasts. Pretty certain the Brownlee Brothers are having the same conversations inside their camp. Ironman hasn't raised the purse in kona in over a decade and continue to cut purses and or offer ridiculously low purses of $15k for 70.3s and $25-40$ for Ironmans....

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Scott DeFilippis
Professional Triathlete
Coach and Co/Founder
KIS Coaching

Do you realize the Gomez´s actual weight in Spain Team?

Gomez (also Knowns as Noya) has scored a 1st and a 4th in Montreal (WTS) and Rotterdam (Grand Final) 2017.

He come back after his elbow injury with a win in WTS Abu Dhabi beating (and running faster) Vincent Luis and his teammates (Alarza and Mola)

So, that´s your Opinion, which I respect, but not reality.

My opinion is that Gomez will be a medal contender.

Do you realize the Gomez´s actual weight in Spain Team?

——-

Spain? Have you seen the reaction from ITU? This is huge news. Gomez is basically the patron saint of triathlon. This is great for ITU.

But all the results you just posted happened over 1.5years ago and this is an athlete that left DL for exact opposite training and will be what 38 years old in Tokyo. For as long as he left that’s still how far of a time frame we have til Tokyo.

I was in small minority on ST that said Gomez would struggle in Kona and not race well to what his other IM looked like. I knew he’d struggle on the bike and it’d fry his legs. So I’ll go on small island and say he ain’t a medal contender going into Tokyo.

Eta: athletes age out and slow down and move on. Hardly ever can athletes hang on to podium status this long in a career. Gomez helped put studs into LC just like guys will do to him. So what I’m suggesting isn’t some out of the realm reality. As I said this is the natural progression of athletics....when you age you slow down. So I’m not knocking him I’m kinda stating more obvious “facts”.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I agree it is great news for ITU

I agree also that ageing does not help speed.
Sport wise, IMO it would make sense for him to concentrate for LD (older = longuer), even if he might not be the king there

Sponsor and money wise, Olympic make more sense (especially in Europe)

Probably not going to win in Tokyo, but will make the buzz (only before the start ?)

I predict a silver at best in Tokyo.

Future facts are only known by wizards. :-)

Age decrease performance? That’s a fact
To be 37 years old slows N=1 significantly to put JGN out of the battle? That’s not a fact, that’s a prediction based in statistics

Even if Noya don’t get a medal, we wouldn’t know if that is because the age or another cause.

I’ve not said he’s been out of battle. I’ve said Tokyo is the worst course for an athlete like him and that he’s more likely to be 10th ish than a podium. Tokyo is a terrible course for front pack athlete as it’s going to in all likelihood have all the runners coming out of T2 together and that’s the worst scenario for Gomez. Gomez would have a much better chance on a harder course as Tokyo is basically built as a drag strip run venue. It’s very likelihood going to be a very ho hum swim-bike. I really only see one area of the course that is trouble and that’s going to be the ride through the park if the road narrows. But it has little to no elevation gain so it’s really not likely going to be able to keep a breakaway.

And I don’t care to give the reason why he won’t medal. If he comes out with top runners that’s reason enough why he won’t out run Mola, Blumenfelt, birthwhistle, Luis at minimum. As I said I think it’ll be a great feat if he hangs on for 2k out of T2 cus he’ll be there for that long. I just don’t think he’ll be able to hold their pace. Just like when he broke older guys, at some point the tide will turn on him. Like I said it’s not really outlandish statement to say older athletes very very rarely medal in itu.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sydney Men 25-28-27
Sydney Women 33-31-29
Athens Men 33-27-23
Athens Women 34-29-35
Beijing Men 27-33-31
Beijing Women 27-23-24
London Men 24-29-22
London Women 30-28-27
Rio Men 29-27-25
Rio Women 30-34-30

Rarely, but no so unfrenquently and of course not impossible.

To break down the races even further, here's his run splits and his overall split from his last year in WTS 2017.

Grand Final (olympic)- 4th best run split, 4th overall
Montreal (olympic)- 2nd best run split, 1st overall
Edmonton (sprint)- 6th best run split, 6th overall
Hamburg (sprint)- 7th best run split, 5th overall
Yokohoma (olympic)- 12th best run split, 9th overall
Gold Coast (sprint)- 4th best run split, 4th overall
Abu Dhabi (olympic)- 2nd best run split, 1st overall

Avg run split- 5.2. Avg finish- 4.3

2/7 times he had a podium split run. 2/7 overall podium positions


And yes we can say he "slowed" down if he was leading, but I'm just giving you stats, cus if your telling me his 1st and 4th are showcasing he's a medal contender, I'm giving you splits to why he's obviously slowing down. So I think it's more on yall to show me how he's going to medal other than "it's gomez man". And again I'm not trying to knock his return. This is badass. ITU does hella better at promoting their pros then IM does. So he can fail and finish in 7th, 12th, 19th and I think it'll be a spectacular return (just like I thought his Kona result was good, he wasn't going to show up and win, I thought that was fairly obvious as I thought he just needed to race and gain experience....you can't win every single event, there are times when you just need to take results and learn from more than have this end all be all that it's win or he cant hack it). But the question was asked how would he do, and I"m showing you why I think he's not going to be a medal contender unless you want to say any guy out of T2 is a contender...which as I said Tokyo is going to be a not so good race venue for an athlete that is lacking the likely speed necessary to win. There's nothing about Tokyo except speed. There's no real strength component of the event like there is at Bermuda or Rio.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

And just to show you the run splits within ITU for Gomez at this time period in 2013. So 2013 vs 2017 WTS splits

2013 WTS season
Auckland- 1st run split; 1st overall
San Diego- 8th run split, 8th overall
Yokohoma- 3rd run split; 2nd overall
Madrid- 7th run split, 2nd overall
(i'm not counting Kitz as this was not a normal event, it was basically a TT up a mountain)
Hamburg (sprint)- 5th run split; 3rd overall
Stockholm- 1st run split; 1st overall
Grand Final- 1st run split; 1st overall

Avg run split- 3.7 Avg overall finish- 2.5

4/7 times he had a podium run split. 6/7 times he had a overall podium finish.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

my feeling is that for a lot of ITU guys, IM racing is just not that appealing. it's slow, it's boring, it's lonely . . . you lose your federation funding and all the support you get with that, and you go from racing every weekend to a few times per year.

it's natural to want to give it a try, since for many kona is the pinnacle of the sport, but to my mind guys like ali and gomez have nothing to prove. if gomez had never raced the IM distance he'd still have one of the best palmares in history.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

you are posting the age of all medalists that shows the oldest medalist ever was 34 as evidence that a medal at 38 is possible???