monty wrote:
He ran a 1;08 in the worlds 70.3, while walking and having to slow down a bunch for a stitch, and you think he has lost his speed? I think a few weeks on focused speedwork and he will be right where he ought to be.
No if you said its possible he is losing speed because of his age, well that is a valid hypothesis. Although I have not seen that guys in running necessarily lose their 10k speed in their early 30's. His best bet is to have Ali come back and they can form that lead breakaway on the main pack. There are just so many guys that have upped their runs that it really can be a crap shoot on the day among 15 different guys if they all come into T2 together. But good news is there are a couple more top lead group swimmers that can hammer the bike now too, so it doesn't all have to be on the Brownlees to push that early pace...
I had a feeling after he had a bad race in Kona that this might happen. It is a much longer learning curve for some, even the GOAT has trouble at that first crack at Kona. It makes sense though, he can slot right back into where he was before, just with more guys around that pace now to deal with..
assuming the HM was the full distance (I don't think it was), 1:08:15 is 5:12/mile pace. since when is 5:12/mile pace indicative of the top end speed needed to stay at the front of a flat 10K in an ITU championship race? He's arguably the greatest triathlete of all time but he isn't super human and clearly was slowing before his long course stint. he will be 3 years removed from then in 2020 and will be even slower on the run. his best shot at a gold would have been on a rio-like course where he could get in a small break on the bike and grind up everyone so the run would be more of a race of attrition but that's not happening on the tokyo course.