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Re: Gomez back to itu [tof] [ In reply to ]
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What’s the recap for those non-Spanish speaking ppl? I heard Yokohama ?

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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The problem here isn't ability, it's suitability... Gomez has the ability that in the right circumstances, he's still a legit podium threat. But the suitability of the toyko course for him is extremely low. Similarly for Blummenfelt, if I were him, I'd be hoping for a medal in Tokyo, but betting on 2024 hoping that the course is more inspired...

In terms of tactics, it's hard to predict the exact unfolding of a race, because that comes down to who feels like what on race day, and the conditions... My only hope for Tokyo is that there are insane cross winds for the bike, and we get echelons and gutter riding, otherwise, the bike might be nap time while watching the broadcast (not the least because of the time difference)... Will there be breaks, yes, will a break make it to T2, less likely. The constitution of those breaks are harder to predict, because it comes down to performance on the day. I will predict that we have at least one to two lesser known athletes in the early break of the swim... Like Stornes in Bermuda, you'll get some stud swimmers that we haven't seen that much at the pointy end on the WTS, who realize that gambling on an early break is their only shot at a medal (this was effectively what Schoeman did in Rio... he was an established FOP swimmer, but with sporadic individual results)... I think that we'll need some adverse conditions to keep a break clear on that course all the way to T2 involving any contenders... It's not impossible, I'm really hoping that there's epic conditions to make the race more exciting, but if I were betting, I'd say that you'll have repeated break attempts, which will result in a killer fast ride (I'd guess if it's a calm day, the contender pack will split in the 52min ish ballpark or faster with the hyper aggression (probably a tad slower for the strong swimmers, and a tad faster for those who have to chase on)), and then it'll come down to a dash for cash as to who can run on fried legs... If there's epic rains as we've seen in Yokohama before, or killer winds, or killer swells on the swim, then all bets are off...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think this type of course will result in fried legs coming out of T2. I actually think it's going to result in very fast run splits. It's too flat and while technical in places, it's going to lead to big pack riding *more than likely*. And yes if the conditions are shit like 28mph wind and rainstorm, yes all that goes out the window then it's break pushing to maintain what I think a lead they can get to T2.


Probaly the whole key to Gomez's success will be the presence of his 2 biggest rivals- Brownlee Brothers. If they are there they have atleast 2 guys that arent afraid to put their head in the wind and "motivate" the others in the break to do the same at suicide pace. Without them I think there is just a difference in the mentality.....I don't know if anyone in ITU has that same "ride til you die" mentality. And no I'm not saying the front group now is "sitting in", I'm just saying there is a distinctness about a AB led front pack and a non-AB led front pack.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Gomez back to itu [luarca] [ In reply to ]
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luarca wrote:
Yokohama is not one of his three last races. He raced 6 more times after Yokohama 2017.

I’m not defending that he would be the favourite for the gold (that’s Mola, obviously) but arguing that he will be in the Tokio’s pontoon thinking in winning the gold, and my bet is that he will be fighting in medal positions with 5-6 athletes in the km 8. What will be happen then? If i would know I would bet all my savings, but I never bet in sports, nor say that Rafa Nadal or Roger Federer are old.




mag900 wrote:
he was 9th in yokohama (not 6th).

i gladly will take the other side of any bets you want to make about him winning the gold in tokyo for all of the reasons stated by multiple people on this thread.
He came into Yokohama with a tooth ache if memory serves me right... 9th is pretty good IMO. He finished 2nd overall in 2017 in spite of focusing on 70.3 and some health issues.

I don't necessarily think Tokyo suits him but I wouldn't bet against him, even at 37... he gets on the bike with a small group of swim-bikers and gaps the field by 1:00... game on!
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
I don't think this type of course will result in fried legs coming out of T2. I actually think it's going to result in very fast run splits. It's too flat and while technical in places, it's going to lead to big pack riding *more than likely*. And yes if the conditions are shit like 28mph wind and rainstorm, yes all that goes out the window then it's break pushing to maintain what I think a lead they can get to T2.


Probaly the whole key to Gomez's success will be the presence of his 2 biggest rivals- Brownlee Brothers. If they are there they have atleast 2 guys that arent afraid to put their head in the wind and "motivate" the others in the break to do the same at suicide pace. Without them I think there is just a difference in the mentality.....I don't know if anyone in ITU has that same "ride til you die" mentality. And no I'm not saying the front group now is "sitting in", I'm just saying there is a distinctness about a AB led front pack and a non-AB led front pack.

One of us will be right, I'm not sure which. Either the ride is quite easy for folks sitting in and everybody has fresh legs in T2, or because of the incessant attempts to try and break clear, the pace will be so elevated, that those who don't get ridden out of the pack will all have fried legs (albeit on a much harder course, if you look at the ladies race at WTS Montreal last year, the chase group rode across the to the break, but by the end, it was more or less a breakaway, because the pack was clipping so hard, anyone who wasn't super strong on the bike had long since been dropped out the back, you can look no further than someone like Sophie Coldwell who hung onto the group, but who looked like a ghost, and was a shell of herself by the time she crossed the finish line)...

I'm hoping for said epic conditions, so we end up with a race that surprises the hell out of all of us... And yes, Gomez's chances improve drastically with two healthy Brownlees on the start, because you have big day racers, who aren't afraid to stick their faces in the wind and race to win, as opposed to the majority of the bunch who are likely racing not to lose...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [xeon] [ In reply to ]
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he gets on the bike with a small group of swim-bikers and gaps the field by 1:00... game on!

---------

2017 WTS season w/ Gomez in the race


Abu Dhabi (olympic) - 1st overall- made front pack and came into T2 w/ 1:10 lead on chase pack (sunny weather)
Gold Coast (sprint)- 4th overall-made front pack but chase + front came into T2 together (sunny weather)
Yoko (olympic)- 9th overall- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (pouring rain storm)
Hamburg (sprint)- 5th- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (sunny weather)
Edmonton (sprint)- 6th- front pack + chase pack came together into T2 (sunny weather)
Montreal (olympic)- 1st overall- made front pack (+ Blum) and came into T2 w/ 0:58s lead on chase pack (sunny weather)
GF Rotterdam (olympic)- 4th overall- front pack + chase pack came into T2 together (overcast/damp conditions)

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Oh I think some people will be fresher than others. A guy like Mola, the moment he gets from the chase group to the main group is shutting it down completely. You wont see him the rest of the telecast til T2, he'll sit in 12th spot the rest of the ride. But a guy like Blum or Van Riel is going to constantly want to push effort. Brownlee is going to want to push the efforts til probaly the groups come together, then it's sorta just watching others. Birtwhistle isn't going to put his nose in the wind anymore than he needs too. Luis likewise, he's going to want to be an active participant in the break, but he's also going to be "smart".

So even if "surges" occur because someone is trying to break off every chance possible (which I think will happen), there's going to be guys that are "sitting" in on a course like what we likely will see and you don't really "break" a group of 30 on simply surging hard. Yes that can put pain in the legs, but this isn't really imo going to be a "punishing" bike course. I just dont see it, I dont think Yokohoma is punishing course, and I'm guessing Tokyo will be similiar. Athens was a punishing course, London wasnt. Tokyo I just dont see as a punishing course where it's survival of the fittest.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Trauma wrote:
The problem here isn't ability, it's suitability... Gomez has the ability that in the right circumstances, he's still a legit podium threat. But the suitability of the toyko course for him is extremely low. Similarly for Blummenfelt, if I were him, I'd be hoping for a medal in Tokyo, but betting on 2024 hoping that the course is more inspired...

In terms of tactics, it's hard to predict the exact unfolding of a race, because that comes down to who feels like what on race day, and the conditions... My only hope for Tokyo is that there are insane cross winds for the bike, and we get echelons and gutter riding, otherwise, the bike might be nap time while watching the broadcast (not the least because of the time difference)... Will there be breaks, yes, will a break make it to T2, less likely. The constitution of those breaks are harder to predict, because it comes down to performance on the day. I will predict that we have at least one to two lesser known athletes in the early break of the swim... Like Stornes in Bermuda, you'll get some stud swimmers that we haven't seen that much at the pointy end on the WTS, who realize that gambling on an early break is their only shot at a medal (this was effectively what Schoeman did in Rio... he was an established FOP swimmer, but with sporadic individual results)... I think that we'll need some adverse conditions to keep a break clear on that course all the way to T2 involving any contenders... It's not impossible, I'm really hoping that there's epic conditions to make the race more exciting, but if I were betting, I'd say that you'll have repeated break attempts, which will result in a killer fast ride (I'd guess if it's a calm day, the contender pack will split in the 52min ish ballpark or faster with the hyper aggression (probably a tad slower for the strong swimmers, and a tad faster for those who have to chase on)), and then it'll come down to a dash for cash as to who can run on fried legs... If there's epic rains as we've seen in Yokohama before, or killer winds, or killer swells on the swim, then all bets are off...

stornes isn't a stud swimmer and was 24th out of the water in bermuda.

schoeman didn't gamble with a break in rio. he swam FOP, landed in the lead break coming out of t1, hung on for dear life on each lap of the bike and then pulled out the run of his life to hold off mola and murray (with maybe some extra help). he did not take a gamble like stornes did in bermuda with a 3-person break on the bike.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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I think it could very well be that he misses the thrill of itu racing. You are racing shoulder on shoulder with your competition week after week. I like following long course too but it is not as exciting to watch (let alone race) as itu. So for a guy like Gomez who has been racing that way year after year and being at the very front for a very long time I think it could be hard to train and live without it. Escpecially when you still feel that you have "it" in you and only this one thing is missing.

For me Gomez will not be the favourite. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him podium. Yes there are very fast young guns out there. But in an Olympic Triathlon a lot needs to go well. From the fast runners one could be injured, another one chokes and a third one will have an off day. Stuff happens and Gomez will be right there should anyone show weekness.

It's still a mainly aerobic sport and not a 100m dash, so training age can bring you a far way.

And even as a swiss I didn't really see spririg taking silver halfway into the Rio cycle. I believed there were too many running studs emerging. Now, of course Rio wasn't flat but she still got into T2 with a lot of the runners still in the game.

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Fair point. There will certainly be a fried gradient... The guys who are backing their run are likely to be on the less fried end, because they will be racing not to lose the race before T2, rather than those who know they need to race to win before T2, because if Mola is off with a sniff, the writing is on the wall...

In terms of Yokohoma as a reference, based on the maps, Tokyo looks to be even less selective than Yokohoma. At least Yokohoma is a smidge more technical, that if you get a few drops of rain, it can separate those who can handle their bikes well (case and point Flora doing Flora in 2017, which if memory serves was the biggest gap to 2nd place in WTS history)...), from those who can't... Looking at the map, there are only a couple of points where I can see someone using the course to create a gap... The rest is going to be hail mary suicide attacks... Anything else will have to form on the swim/T1...

I think (epic conditions aside) it'll probably take a gap out of T1 in the 2min ballpark with some heavy firepower (such as Luis, Gomez, the Brownlees, Van Riel, etc.) to give a break a chance of upsetting the podium before T2...
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Course width is an important factor in how the bike ride plays out. Yokohama is super wide with plenty of space for the pack to tightly bunch. From the map it looks like the Tokyo course has lots of corners and zig-zags, but the lane widths are pretty generous. However if the organizers decide to put up barriers within the car lanes it could be much more narrow leading to long single file lines. This can sap legs with the accordion effect out of the corners. I guess we will get the first taste at the test event. But recall that the race at the test event rarely plays out like the big dance.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Trauma] [ In reply to ]
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Tokyo is still 1 and a half seasons away, a lot can change. in the top 6 at the moment 2 are still quite young Birtwhistle 23 and Blumm 24, they will still be improving a lot between now and Tokyo, getting closer to endurance peak age. No doubt other young guys will be moving up also, and the guys who are around 30ish now, may be needing to work even harder to avoid slowing a bit (injury risk). Interesting to watch, but I will be very susrprised if Gomez is on the podium more than once in his run for points, if he is I might be querying the testing protocal, because, you know, age stops for no-one, its natural.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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So if we're playing the hypothetical "how could he win" (given that on paper he currently is a long shot) this is my scenario:

Stud group of swimmers breaks away. Brownlee, Luis, Kanute, French guy X, Schoeman, Gomez, etc.

They bike with the knowledge that they have to hold off the Molas of the world. The chase group takes a bit of time getting organized and never catches them.

Ali's not fully run healthy because only the balls of his toes touch the ground and his lower limbs explode. Johnny can't hang. At this point the main threat is Luis. He forgets that killer edge he's shown in the Grand Finals/ Super League and reverts to 2015/ 2016 form where he can't quite close it out. Gomez pulls away on lap 3 and avoids Vincent's kick.

Any better scenarios out there?

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gomez back to itu [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Pretty much, I'm going to guess Gomez to medal needs 45s head start on the chase pack of athletes and needs one of the Brothers to have an bad day (assuming both brothers, Gomez, Luis make front group) . However that needs to happen, that's imo how he medals. If T2 is 30+ men together, I'm going to go with my 1st post prediction of closer to 8th-10th finish.

ETA: I won't post anymore on it but I just cant see a 37+ year old who's aging out of the sport and going up against guys who are aging into their best form, I just dont see how he beats them in a heads up run race. Gomez brought in a new style of racing with AB and they put medal winners out to pasture in the process, so one day the shoe falls on the other foot, and one day Gomez will be the guy where the sport has passed him by. It's not disrespect, it's just sports. #life #athletics

He's probaly come back to ITU cus it's just more of a fun life. IM racing kinda sucks. You race for a paycheck once every 6 weeks or 2 months or 3 months, while ITU/DL you can race for a paycheck 2-3 times a month (they also usually race domestically for teams in FGP or GB leagues). Granted I dont think Kona was a disappointment, I think it was a good result for where he was. You sometimes just need to take your lumps and learn more than go into a race and think your a podium and if you don't it's a failure. If that was the goal or plan, then I think that's mighty big bar to set. Gomez is triathlon royalty. He can name any job he wants when he retires. I think all this means is that IM just isn't what he wants to do. I also think it'll be really hard to go back to IM if he spends the next 2 years going ITU. I think this move back just means it's more not his cup of tea. Going from ITU style training to IM training it's just different. Hell he's going to have raced for what 4th olympics (3rd cus he missed Rio, but you know what i mean) if he makes Tokyo....that's one hell of a long successful career.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Jan 16, 19 21:19
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Re: Gomez back to itu [chrisb12] [ In reply to ]
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This is very true, and there are more norwegians to worry about as well! Iden, Stornes and Blu make for a dangerous group. I think that Iden will surprise many!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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I’d think the Norweigens would need some sort of bike break as well. As awesome as Blum’s style is, I just can’t see him medaling in Tokyo if everyone comes off the bike together. He’s a fantastic athlete, but as of today I’d bet Mika, Luis and...someone else.

Not sure Schoeman can do it again. The swim and bike gave him enough of a lead in Rio, but Murray was closing in. Birtwhistle might have the legs, but he doesn’t seem to be a big stage guy quite yet. Maybe one of the 3 London medalists? Some young guy who’s building endurance?

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gomez back to itu [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Which is why I said Iden ;) He is a very fast runner and just 22 so will hopefully have built some more endurance by next year. But generally I agree that they would like to see a break.
I'm just really hoping that Alistair races and is in good shape as I want to see him open the first k sub 2:50 like in London, pure magic to watch!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Didn’t realize Iden was so young. Wow!

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gomez back to itu [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
ETA: I won't post anymore on it but I just cant see a 37+ year old who's aging out of the sport and going up against guys who are aging into their best form, I just dont see how he beats them in a heads up run race.

well of course not. But come on, you know these people. I guarantee if you hook Gomez up to a lie-detector and ask him if he going to win the Gold medal in Tokoyo he is going to say yes. That is why he is going for it. Because he believes in his heart and soul that he is going to win.

Now does AB come back? Nah. I think that ship has sailed.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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I think Dubai will be a good speed test for him, if he can outrun Blu he knows he still has it.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Gomez back to itu [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
I’d think the Norweigens would need some sort of bike break as well. As awesome as Blum’s style is, I just can’t see him medaling in Tokyo if everyone comes off the bike together. He’s a fantastic athlete, but as of today I’d bet Mika, Luis and...someone else.

Not sure Schoeman can do it again. The swim and bike gave him enough of a lead in Rio, but Murray was closing in. Birtwhistle might have the legs, but he doesn’t seem to be a big stage guy quite yet. Maybe one of the 3 London medalists? Some young guy who’s building endurance?
This is why I mentioned Birtwhistle earlier, still young at 23 and building endurance and by Tokyo will have a lot more experience.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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For sure, he absolutely thinks he has a chance. I'm a huge fan of his but I'm also a realist... we will see if he's capable of Gold after seeing him race a few times. The field in the ITU/Worldcup is somewhat dynamic and as I said earlier I'm not sure Yokohama is a great course for him, especially if it turns into a 30 person group ride.

AB is a threat if he can come in with some "proper training" and uninjured. He's another guy I wouldn't bet against until he shows that he can't compete with the current field.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Is this confirmed?

That's a shame, think I'd rather see him in Kona this year, however its probably going to sway A.Brownlee to come back to Oly distance now which is what I wanted.

Being injured for Rio must have really eaten Gomez up, obviously still playing on his mind, I don't see him as having much of a chance if any of a Gold.

He probably needs both Brownlee's fit and firing on all cylinders to have a chance of a medal in Tokyo (which judging 2018 is a massive ask) which then probably rules him out of a Gold as he's probably not going to outrun Ali (A fit one) and maybe not Jonny also Luis who will be in any front pack coming out of T2.
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Yes https://triathlonworld.com/...stance-racing-147053, but actually BE13 just posted that Alistair is continuing going long this year so Kona doesn't seem impossible for him. Kind of think he wants to win Kona on his first go just to best Gomez once again ;)
Agree on Rio, it was also prob his best chance of beating Ali as well, in London he was simply too good.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Jan 20, 19 6:17
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Re: Gomez back to itu [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Is this confirmed?

That's a shame, think I'd rather see him in Kona this year, however its probably going to sway A.Brownlee to come back to Oly distance now which is what I wanted.

AB is not going to go to Tokyo because Gomez is there.

He'd only be swayed by folk who he thinks could help him get gold, not sure he views Gomez as strong enough on the bike these days to be significant horsepower in a break that stays away. It's going to be very hard to stay away on that course anyway.

I was convinced AB would do Tokyo for the relay, strong GB women and chance to win gold with his brother. Then the individual as a no lose hail Mary. But relay is pure speed, so now having doubts with him on the 70.3 Dubai start list as he'd need to really drill speed from the off - even the prime AB was never as good over the sprint distance, let alone relay leg distances.

If AB is going to 'target' anyone I'd put Frodo on top of the list. He'll be smarting from 70.3 worlds defeat by someone he more or less chased out of ITU.
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