Please... Nice nonresposive response. You clearly stated Kienle "SMOKED" Lance, and in reference to Lance, said that "it's amazing how badly pro cyclist start to sucking at cycling after the swim, when they actually have to do with triathletes do." As I mentioned Kienle rode the wheel of Lance the entire ride. He tried to overtake him and could not and then rode in a pack of 3, 3rd wheel behind while Lance was leading the pack. Lance came into T2 #1, in first place, against whom everyone is saying is THE uberbiker, and eventual Ironman World Champion. Hardly getting smoked. Hardly sucking.

And whether he was 40 or 41, Cam Brown, while still amazing, has not competed against, nor has not biked with, top Ironman athletes - and certainly not the likes of Kienle - in ages.

Ned the lung is still crushing it.
He was a hero of mine as a boy in the 90s.
Did he ever race xterra?

I think you need to add Ol'man Chris Horner to this list :-) wasnt he like 42 when he won the Vuelta?

I dont know if I would use the term "less fit", but I thinkt most people would accept that you excel at what you train for. Triathletes train to hold steady power for 180k after 1 hr swim. I would imagine pro-cyclist train a bit differently. I think a long course triathlete would be totally smoked in a competitive road race becuase they dont train for the high number of surges and changes in pace you could experience. I would think this also goes the other way around, where the long course triathlete has the advantage when it comes to holding steady power as close to FTP as you can for 4 hrs.

Also - as others have noted - the triathlete goes for a 1hr swim before heading out to the TT - which adds to the equation.

Finally - go read the great interview with Don himself (http://www.slowtwitch.com/...rd_smasher_6381.html). Fantastic interview and a BIG kudos to Don for his answers. Regarding his bike-split he said amongst other things:

"The course is 100 percent closed to traffic. You are on the right side of the road but near the center lane. So there are cars going past on the right and they create a wake that adds to your momentum."

Also note his target, power of 4w/kg - 254watts. (I would say I wasnt way off with my assumptions above..). Sure he punches a smaller hole in the air, but as he acknowledges himself with reference to the conditions and the traffic, I think it's fair to say that it will be hard to go 4:06 unaided on 254watts, which I think also Don acknowledges.

Are you suggesting two of the best three rides by Don followed missed drug tests? I wasn't aware of the 2008 episode, is this correct?

I am not really suggesting anything other than Tim can bike.

Agreed, one of the strongest bikers in the sport

awesome interview with the Don: http://www.slowtwitch.com/...rd_smasher_6381.html

OK, so he's shooting for 4w/kg. What w/kg is needed to ride with Sanders, Seb, Frodo, AB, Hoffman in Hawaii, assuming surges from those guys are being responded to?

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Faris has been on the record that 4W per kilo was neccessary target to ride near the front of the Kona race (like just behind the Ubebike breakaway). Of course Faris' gauge is skewed because of his own shitty aeroness. Nevertheless he set that as a target for his athlete Lang. But 4W per kilo for a 75 kilo athlete gets you a lot faster to T2 than 4W per kilo for a 62 kilo athlete. Both have to push the same wheels from Kailua Pier to Hawi and back through the air, so its a higher percentage of the 62 kilo athlete's top line wattage.

Here it comes!

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Adam Hinshaw still holds the 10 and under NAG record for the 400 lcm free, 4:36, which he swam in 2004. His best ever 400 lcm was 3:53 in 2012; in the 1500 lcm, he went 15:32 at the '12 Oly Trials. In scy, he went 4:17 for the 500 and 14:49 1650.

Just by chance I noticed that 4:36 at age 10 some yrs ago when looking through the NAG records, and it just stuck with me as a pretty amazing time for a 10 yr old!!!

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

but not saying it's a bad discussion to have - would Don be better off on 650 wheels?

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It's nice to know Tim's goal wattage but it would be way more interesting to know the actual wattage he did for the ride. He did mention how nice it was to see so many other pro's data on Strava.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

that was my thought too as I read it: 'ok, so you enjoy looking at those strava files... guess what?! so do we - post your ride!'

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that was my thought too as I read it: 'ok, so you enjoy looking at those strava files... guess what?! so do we - post your ride!' //

After reading the article I think he believes he inoculated himself from a wonky power file to time comparison. He talked about the traffic right next to him sucking him along, so of course that would screw the comparisons. But what he left out is why didn't all the other pro men get the same advantage?? You think they don't know a suck when they feel one? I guess maybe they "all" just had a bad day...


Of course the power file will not come close to matching that time, that is why be even mentioned this car suck in the first place. Still would be nice to see it though..

good point. But, to be optimistic and to hope that Hawaii is that much more interesting, I'm hoping Don't assessment was spot on and we'll see him up at the front in Hawaii... due to his new approach to training, singular focus on Kona, and him changing up his nutrition with First Endurance to overcome the stomach issues that plagued him two HIM ago....

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Please elaborate on Faris' "aeroness." Do you know his watt/cda? His kona bike places were 6th, 4th, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th from 2003 to 2010. I gather he actually had a pretty good position even if not ST Aesthetician approved.

I don't think there is consensus that 650 wheels takes any less power to move from Kailua pier back to Kailua pier than 700 wheels (imagine, no rider, no frame, just the 2 wheels rolling from the pier back to the pier at 40 kph in 4:30). What we do know is that for any two riders this overhead of moving wheels to Hawi and back is a fixed number so if you have less Kilos and both of you are riding at 4W per kilo, a large percent of your top line watts goes to moving those wheels. That's just a fixed tax that allows larger humans to power a bike better on flat terrain.

In any case assuming that 650's and 700's take the same kilojoules to Hawi and back, then the only utility of 650's is if they allow the rider (be it Don or anyone else) to get into a superior position.

devashish_paul wrote:

But 4W per kilo for a 75 kilo athlete gets you a lot faster to T2 than 4W per kilo for a 62 kilo athlete. Both have to push the same wheels from Kailua Pier to Hawi and back through the air, so its a higher percentage of the 62 kilo athlete's top line wattage.

Seeing as this thread has completely derailed - I'll throw in the below.
Perhaps warrants a separate debate, but in response to the above:


Will it really though?
Have you any data to back this up?
I've tried to get an answer on this and in my opinion it's not necessarily.

And this is still something I've looked at many data files to try and ascertain and still haven't got a final answer but don't completely agree with your statement.
How much do greater watts count in a similar w/kg bike split?
CDA is very important but assuming similar position and attention to detail?

The bigger athlete will always be punching a bigger hole in the Air and have a worse CDA as a result.
On a windy course like Kona, I think this counts for a lot more than you'd think.

Data points:

I know an athlete that raced Kona'16 in 4:29 (Bryan McCrystal).
Said athlete lead the Amateur race to that point with the fastest bike split by a mile.
He's very aero, but a big guy and pushes massive watts to get those times.
Pays attention to all the details and is an uber biker from an amateur perspective and up at leading pro class (now racing pro).

Anyway, it took him 3.6-3.7 w/kg to get that 4:29 and 325w.
https://www.strava.com/activities/741785301

I've been using Best Bike Split for a while now and it's coming in bang on so I've my CDA to a reasonable accuracy and updated with actual race files etc.

If I punch in Kona, with same date and time for advanced weather, and my CDA to return that bike split I get just over 3.6 w/kg.
Now clearly I can't hold 3.6 w/kg, but point being CDA counts for a lot more than you'd think and w/kg is a fair indicator for many.
Ok so this is only an estimate, but BBS hasn't been far wrong for me yet if at all and for most I think is a reasonably accurate estimator.

Even if we take a 5 minute margin of error - that's still pretty damn close and not a massive advantage for the bigger rider like you'd expect.

Kinda results in FTP and W/kg counts. Assuming relatively similar aero attention and position relative to the rider size.

So if a Pro is racing at 4 w/kg, and has relatively similar aero position then I'd expect the gap to be barely a few minutes regardless of weight and watts pushed.

Obviously there will be exceptions to this, but my point is that bigger watts doesn't always trump and w/kg can be a better estimate than you give credit for.



Now, to counter my above data points:

Lange's file is also on Strava - and it states 248w or 3.93 w/kg.
https://www.strava.com/activities/740934179
Removing his 5min penalty would have returned a bike split of 4:33 - so 3mins slower than above but for an extra .3 w/kg if his power meter is accurate etc.
Lange is pretty aero though I'd class McCrystal as more aero with head being lower and having a better tuck so I'd explain this difference from aero position being weaker.

Another example in favour of my points:

Ben Hoffman - 265w for 4:28 = 3.63 w/kg same as McCrystal for faster bike split... and similar aero position it appears but Hoffman is a good 15kg lighter...
https://www.strava.com/activities/740732530

Slowtwitch's favourite:

Lionel Sanders - 300w for 4:25 on 4.1 w/kg (73kg??) . Now clearly he isn't getting the same return or his power meter is off or he broke aero too many times.



So in summary, if we take Lange (exc 5min penalty), Hoffman and McCrystal for Kona'16 bike splits.
4:33, 4:28 and 4:29.
63kg, 73kg and 88kg.
248w, 265w and 325w.
3.9 w/kg, 3.6 w/kg, 3.6 w/kg


So sorry, but your statement of ultimate watts trumping w/kg doesn't ring true at all for Kona.
Perhaps would a little more on a flat course with no wind. But thankfully that's few and far between.


And I'd argue that McCrystal has the best aero position and head tuck than all of the above - as seen in below pics also.

Pictures of position at Kona (isolated examples).

Lange:
http://www.slowtwitch.com/articles/images/8/152328-largest_151033-largest_KonaMbike20.jpg


Hoffman:
http://professionaltriathlon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/bike-ST-Krabel-480x297.jpg


McCrystal:
http://i65.tinypic.com/m78gfa.jpg

Does that not kind of prove the point that the heavier rider has it easier on a quick course like Kona? Lange from your stats is pushing 8% more w/kg and yet he rides a slower bike split to the heavier guys?

No it doesn't. Well actually sort of but I think Lange's example is skewed.
I suspect Lange broke aero more than the others, or lost more time slowing/speeding up from penalty tent etc.
He also doesn't look as aero as the others.

The point is that 325w for same w/kg doesn't trump 265w. And I'd argue the 325w has better position and aero attention.

If watts trumped w/kg then there would be a greater deficit here. And in fact the 265w was 1min quicker.


So many aero variables of did they sit up, is there head as tucked as it can be, etc that I think the data points to CDA being very important, and w/kg being important, and then watts having a factor on flat courses if same aero details and w/kg.

I don't think you can compare McCrystal to the pros, he will have ridden the majority of his time on his own pushing all the wind and that's a very different race dynamic in Kona. Hoffman and Lange would have been in trains for most/all of the 112 miles. You could compare these two pros as they are experiencing similar pack dynamics but with the caveat that how well they manage these trains will have a big impact on their statistic.

A better comparison would be two age groupers but unfortunately I doubt there are age groupers riding close to McCrystal speed!

I'd argue that those stats don't prove anything, I'm not convinced either way.

True and fair point.
I'm not sure the pack dynamics make much of a difference to overall watts, w/kg and bike split time though other than potential advantage of legal draft, and leg fatigue from surges.

If McCrystal had a draft the whole way you'd expect a similar time for say 20w less, or a faster time for same watts.

In Kona, I don't think Hoffman had a full draft the whole way so don't think it's as skewed as you refer.
And as you point out McCrystal certainly had next to no draft for the entire bike leg, and possibly with similar surging at start to get past the trains.

But yes, 2 very different races, and yes, I agree I'm not convinced either way but have seen enough data to suggest overall watts are not as important as cda and w/kg imo contrary to popular opinion.
Open to correction as I said not convinced totally but think its a lot closer than some do.

Do you have any bike files you could share Dan as you've similar performances and Kona files that may help?
What watts and w/kg did it take for your 4:46 ?

I would agree that there are a number of variables that could effect how your finish-time relates to w/kg, w/cda and ultimate top line watts. I do - however - think that physics alone dictates that on a totally flat course - ultimate watts trumps w/kg, simply because kg does not equal cda. Sure kg COULD equal cda, depending on position etc, but all things optimized there should not be a linear relationship between kg and CDA.

An 80 kg guy has 33% more kgs than a 60 kg guy. Sure he may be bigger, but both guys optimized should not lead to a 33% higher CDA for the 80 kg guy vs the 60 kg guy.

I think its really hard to draw conclusions from a few data-files like attempted above (although I did enjoy the experiment - thanks!). My best point of evidence would be myself! :-) I'm kinda heavy at 78-79 kgs. I've ridden the same 70.3 numerous times, and it's a flat and rolling course. On that course I ride within 5-10 mins of the top "local" AG'ers and pros. I've ridden full distance courses vs same local AG'ers/pros - with alot more climbing/sustained climbs. I get out-ridden by more than 1 hr. According to strava we both hold similar w/kg's as we do on the flat courses. In both cases said local riders ride higher W/kg than me, but on a flat course said w/kg gets me ALOT closer to them then a couse with climbs!

Has anyone told Frodeno?

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29 years and counting