Read some history

“The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.”

From the data in you link:

Corona: cases - 84,119 | Deaths - 2,871 | Mortality Rate - 3.4%
Seasonal Flu: cases - 1,000,000,000 (approx) | Deaths - 291,000 - 646,000 | Mortality Rate - .03% - .07%

So, PER YOUR DATA SOURCE, CV is significantly more deadly than the seasonal flu.

The one caveat is delete China from the analysis. The rest of the world is a fraction of China. My hunch is China was trying to suppress information and therefore response, which caused very high transmission and death rates.

Yeah, I’d agree with that. I think we are still learning a lot about the virus, so I’m not going to claim to know it’s mortality rate. It’s clearly worse than the flu though.

I was more pointing out that his data didn’t say what he thought it said.

Yeah, this is one of those instances where a little knowledge of statistics is dangerous.

I'm an engineer who uses statistics daily. But I still don't act like a professional epidemiologist on the internet. I tend to trust the consensus statements from the professional epidemiologists. They're very hesitant to say anything about case-fatality rates except in specific contexts, like the JAMA paper summarizing cases in China.

yep. To do it correctly, the data need to be of the same cohort—resolved cases. So, the denominator should be resolved cases, not total cases. But, all the news outlets are reporting death rates against total cases.

* I am not a statistician, but I have a pretty good handle on statically analysis. And at one point, I had dozens of epidemiologists working for me.

I think there are no stats YET on total cases. Total cases MAY be way higher. Lots of people may have this and have no clue they have it (and they will live). Without proper studies we don't know mortality rates anyway...reports are 2-3% based only on known cases. Its probably a lot lower mortality rate.

Stop it. You're not an epidemiologist. It's fine for us to play internet expert in aero or training. This is real life. Let the experts figure this out for us.

Exactly! "Probably" a lot lower mortality rate. What the eff does he know about the coronavirus other than what's being said in the news.

I don't know why people keep trying to downplay the problems associated with this outbreak. It's a bad situation for everyone and acting like it isn't a problem is foolish at best. I wish people would just open their eyes and not be so dense and insensitive. It's pretty ugly and disrespectful to the victims of this terrible illness.

Wait... is it asinine at best or foolish at best? And wish is worse?

You don't get to decide what others on the internet talk about. I am entitle to my OPINION that rates are LIKELY lower. We don't know if all cases have been identified and recorded (well maybe they are, but my opinion is we don't know). Lots of governments around the world have an incentive to under report.

Its all opions on the internet. We won't have a any real facts for a long long time. Right now we're dealing with a cross between facts, propaganda and cover ups along with media hype, so its just a ton of misinformation all floating around for everyone to discuss.

Heck the latest talk is no one from any teams (management/workers/riders) at the UAE tour tested positive for Covid19 and it MAY have just been hyper reactions. Or maybe not depending on where you read what.

All anyone knows is how many people actually died. We don't know how many people have been infected, so we can just go by how many cases have been reported. This may be 100% of cases reported, it my be 99.999, it may be 50%....no one knows.

Its not downplaying anything other than a lot of people are going to get laid off and loose jobs pretty soon because of the reaction to this which may or may not be proportional to the threat. Right now it may be out of proportion. Once Wall street sneezes, the little guy down in the factory gets the pink slip (sadly this is how the world works)

Both sadly. You would think people would care more, but most live in a bubble and don't give a rat until it hits them. Put yourself in someone else's shoes for just a minute because these things can easily happen to anyone.

You're free to think however you want. We are also free to have an opinion about you based on the factless statements you're doubling down on. It may be hard for you, but try to have some perspective and empathy about what others are going through instead of acting like you're the smartest guy in the room.

What makes you think that I would no have empathy for someone personally affected. I just had an employee who needed to visit Iran around all this stuff and was in and out of hospitals there helping support a family member potentially fighting a terminal disease around all of this craziness. Another employee has elder family members in an affected zone who have self quarantined to just be safe. For the former employee when that person left the affected zone got immediately tested (clear). Other employees of mine have made trips to China recently (at least after this would have all started). I was traveling 2 weeks ago through places now affected. Personal empathy is separate from a discussion on top level reported deaths and reported/recorded cases. They are not mutually exclusive.

You're reading too much on a discussion about reported total deaths and total reported cases and comparisons with other causes of death (and we're all going to die anyway)

So you've had several personal experiences with this virus and employees, yet you think the number of cases is overinflated and that the threat is overstated? If I had the same experiences I would have a much different opinion. Keep being such a great public health advocate for your company and the world. We need more of those all knowing, selfless, caring humanitarians. I'm glad you're not displaying any narcissistic qualities. Also, the final statement about how we're all going to die anyway shows a lot of that empathy you speak of.

I guess we both have a different perspective on life. Yes we are all going to die. This is nothing about empathy, we're just renting time on earth and its just a question of when we die and what we do in between. If the entire world locks itself down in fear, everyone is still going to die at some point of something else anyway. The downward economic impact of all kinds of people getting laid off and companies shutting down in my opinion is going to be way worse than some of us getting this virus.

The discussion was just about reported cases versus deaths. I'm saying that we don't know the entire picture yet. I can still have empathy for those directly affected while also discussing that the entire statistical picture is not yet known and that its way lower odds than heart attacks, cancer and driving deaths (for now).

I do hope that Ironman Switzerland (subject of this thread) goes on. Lizhou70.3 is cancelled. Other events are being postponed (ITU Abu Dhabi Postponed, fortunately IM70.3 Oman last weekend went off). Cycling Track Worlds in Berlin went on, but Paris half marathon go the axe. UAE Cycling World Tour Stage race got the axe right after the Thursday Jabel Hafeet climbing stage, but fortunately in that race, the GC was sealed up by Adam Yates...unlikely he was going to lose, so it was a few uncontested sprinter stages. Who knows what will happen with Milan San Remo and even Paris Nice (if they cancelled the Paris half marathon hopefully Paris Nice goes as planned).

I just booked hotels for biz meetings in another Canadian city. Hotels that you would normally pay $300 - $600 are going for $60 - $150. My wife noted that the same hotels this summer are jacked up even higher (I guess they are hoping to make up revenue in the future when everyone hopes the virus blows over).

I'll chime in a little. I'm not an epidemiologist, but I've received some training as an infectious disease specialist. I work in a moderately large private medical group. My partner, who happens to be my training partner too, is in charge of managing outbreaks and potential outbreaks for our practice. I've sat in with her on a couple conference calls with our primary care and immediate care docs.

I believe that the mortality rate is probably lower, but don't know for sure. We know the data isn't great. Who knows how reliable the data is from China. The test that's being used in the US is flawed. This is also cold and flu season (I'm currently seeing lots of flu A and human coronavirus). How many healthy people get tested when they get the cold or the flu? The symptoms of COVID are similar.

In regard to downplaying, I disagree. I'm afraid of mass hysteria. Some of the docs in my practice are already thinking irrationally. Some of my patients are even worse. One example is the masks. With the general public, it's only beneficial to place on those who are sick. Evidence for health people is mixed at best. I'm pissed that people are buying up and stealing masks. I need those especially if there an outbreak. I'm worried about this with my elderly patient and those with compromised immune systems. If I get sick, I can't take care of them and there are only 4 of us in our ID practice that cover 4 hospitals. I'm ethnically Asian and I'm sick of the racist/xenophobic BS (wearing a white coat protects me from a lot of that).

Am I worried about this? Yes, it's a strange virus in regards to the way it spreads/is transmitted. However, I am just as worried every year during flu outbreaks. I've unfortunately seen deaths from flu from every patient population (pediatrics to geriatrics, super healthy with no medical history to very sick).

I am a bit surprise that Ironman hasn't made a formal statement on this? So many sporting events (at least ones where there are alot of international folks flying in) have been either cancelled or postponed.

As you correctly mentioned, NZ might not have a registered case yet but what's equally important is that people are flying in from all over the world for an event. The risk of someone carrying the virus and spreading it and people taking it back to where they come from is real. Not being an alarmist here but this is why conferences and sporting events have been cancelled or moved over the last few weeks

IM should show some leadership and make a statement. At least reassure the general population that its safe or advising people who have flu like symptoms not to take show up etc

I have reached out to IM New Zealand 3 days ago about the coronavirus issue but I am yet to hear back...

So far, the only updates they give are stupid GIFs on their Facebook page.
After the change of schedule disaster (which I personally do not mind), I feel like there are communication issues in 2020 for IMNZ...

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/

As for the rates. People talk a lot about 2-3% death rate. If you look at completed cases it's currently 7%, but was 9% last week.
The survival rates in Wuhan could have been negatively affected by the sudden need for mass care, tens of thousands of people needed treatment. This will affected the level of care. In Europe there are now cases popping up left and right, but few hospitals deal with more than just a few patients, so patients can be monitored much more closely. As time progresses hospitals will get better in treating the patients, which will reduce the death rate further, will it get as close as 2%? Time will tell, I think the current worry is the amount of places it's popping up.

Looks like the first two rounds of Motogp have been cancelled as of yesterday. This is only getting bigger and some hard decisions on events will have to be made soon. Not looking good for the Olympics...

https://www.crash.net/...ncelled-motogp-class

Bingo!

My event is in July so there is time.

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A M E N !!!

OP here.

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I wrote the above only six days ago.

The death toll in Italy jumped to 79 today. Total infections have risen to 2,502 so far with 90 percent located in northern Italy, where we plan to visit. Italy has had by far the largest outbreak outside of Asia.

I am just waiting for IM to cancel IM Switzerland.

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