The 2% is also assuming that everybody who currently has it will survive, so far 8% of the completed cases resulted in death.

You don’t have to worry about me anymore… I am 60 - 64 :-)

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

In the shorter-term, I am registered for IMNZ next weekend. New Zealand does not have any registered cases of coronavirus yet, probably because of a very strict immigration policy. However, IMNZ brags on being the most international race in the calendar, attracting mostly athletes from Asia.

As a person at risk (I have a weak immune systems due to my immunosuppressive MS drugs), I am a bit concerned…
- Is it reasonable to expect communications from Ironman?
- What prevention measures could they take if the races go ahead? no portaloo? Bring your own cup at aid stations? No aid stations at all…? (self-supported race)
- Does that sound too unrealistic?

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/

I got you in the 98% survivor bucket. You should easily punch a KQ once the top 2% in your age group are wiped out of the standings.

Do you live in NZ? If not, how are you traveling to the event and from where? I'd be more worried about potentially being exposed to the virus before and after the event, not during the IM. If this isn't your first IM, do you know or have a sense whether finishing an IM further compromises your immune system temporarily? There are studies that indicate that endurance events temporarily compromise the immune system of a person with a healthy immune system, but I don't know if it would have the same effect on you.

Good luck to you!

Exactly, but most people are so self absorbed they don't think about anyone else. My wife is in heart failure going on 6 years. She just had the flu and bronchitis. It resulted in 3 ER trips in 1 week. It took 4 plus weeks to recover. People need to safeguard themselves and others from illness for the sake of children, elderly and immuno compromised folks. Its our responsibility as society.

And of course don't forget those 2% are more likely to include your own young children or your own aging parents or family member with underlaying health problems than it will be you.
And the risk is of course Additive to the risks from the other issues.

The stat comes out from China shows very little impact on young/teenage. The deaths are mostly 60+ or ppl with pre existing condition.

Just heard that here in Switzerland all events expected to attract crowds in excess of 1000 people are banned until further notice. This decision is due to be reviewed again on March 15th. No specific news of whether this has an impact yet in IM Thun but worth being aware of the situation.

Received confirmation today that Liuzhou 70.3 has been postponed from April 14th to September 20th

No big surprise really

This!!!!

I'm supposed to be tapering for the my local HM this Sunday, the semi-marathon de Paris. It practically runs by my apartment, and for the past *8 years* I've had to watch it go by while being either too injured or too early post-injury to run it. Thanks to BarryP running for past 6 months, I was finally ready to run a very slow HM - my first, at the age of 48.

Problem is, I got a cold last week that I can't shake off.

While I'm not at risk for COVID-19 according to the docs (was just screened), I've been asking myself is it really worth potentially making myself sicker, and perhaps taking up medical resources, or more likely, infecting others when there is good probability of a pandemic in France? Is it really worth my own personal sense of accomplishment? It seems really, really selfish.

Yet at the same time can't help but feel in endurance circles to bail on a race that you are physically capable of completing is 'wimpy' and feel sheepish to bail on something I've wanted to do for so long.

Asia: Just an update from talking to our people in Asia. Many companies are back to work in China and everyone we know will be back by next week. Taiwan companies were back at work at the beginning of this past week so it looks like supply chains will be back on track soon.

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Dan Kennison

facebook: @triPremierBike
http://www.PremierBike.com
http://www.PositionOneSports.com

I ordered something from China and that's what the lady said. They will ship my stuff on Feb 29, so it looks like that's the date government gave companies they may start working. Obviously, China postal service will start working n 29th.

That's right, and the Geneva motorshow is cancelled which is pretty big news: https://www.gims.swiss/
A friend of mine here in Switzerland is organizer of a small regional bicycle race tomorrow; even for this the authorities asked for an evaluation of whether the event should be cancelled because of the coronavirus risk. I'd say likelihood of a quarantine being imposed in my region is going up daily...

Paris Half Marathon (44.000 peoples this week end) is going on.

we don't have to worry about travelling anymore, looks like we've imported the virus directly -

1. Fourteen infected people were flown back from Japan in a plane with healthy passengers, despite CDC warnings.
https://www.politico.com/...-trump-cruise-117760

2. Those infected people were treated as follows -
https://www.nytimes.com/...s-whistleblower.html

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees per HHS whistleblower.
DHS workers “health concerns were dismissed ...as detrimental to...’morale.’ They were ‘admonished’...and ‘accused of not being team players,’ and had their ‘mental health and emotional stability questioned.’”
These workers were also allowed to disperse into the general population.

3. resulting in new infections,
https://www.msn.com/...-BB10vPWh?li=BBnb7Kz


The patient didn't have any relevant travel history, exposure to another known patient and wasn't one of the evacuees repatriated from China, officials said.
"This does appear to be a person who genuinely did acquire their illness in the community," Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said in a news conference Thursday.


Next steps,

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...s-to-strike-the-u-s/

We should prepare, not because we may feel personally at risk, but so that we can help lessen the risk for everyone. We should prepare not because we are facing a doomsday scenario out of our control, but because we can alter every aspect of this risk we face as a society.

Prepare because your neighbors need you to prepare—especially your elderly neighbors, your neighbors who work at hospitals, your neighbors with chronic illnesses, and your neighbors who may not have the means or the time to prepare because of lack of resources or time.



As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected.

"As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected. "

I wish they would interview someone who has had it and is back to "normal". I talk to people who have had this year's flu and they say they are sick for a few days and then back to work and fully recovered in a week (or two). I think a few interviews like this would calm fears.

You absolutely cannot make the leap that this case was a result of the infected patients flown in without more information.

It's possible. But there are also other very plausible possibilities. E.g. the 10's of thousands of people who enter the United States daily from all over the globe.

I don’t think the issue is the death rate, I think it’s the impact a swift pandemic will have on emergency services and their ability to cope.

No vaccine and hospitals over filled can lead to all sorts of problems, especially if hundreds of thousands of people suddenly all need treatment at once

I think you should look at math in a different way
1) lets take Italy with 60millions people as example. every season, 6 millions italians get infected with flu. 1 out 1000 dies and we have an average of 6000 deaths for flu per season. Despite all the medicaments and vaccines available.
CV has about 2.5% mortality at this stage. without any available medicament. if it spreads like flu, we would have 150,000 deaths per season!!!!
Translating into US population, you would have every year 750,000 dead americans

2) "most people dont bother to get a flu shot": this is a terrible mistake because if it is not useful for you, young and strong, it reduces the % of you getting it and spreading it to weak people who still today unfortunately keep dying because of this

I get a flu shot every year. The Corona Virus is not as deadly as the flu. We don’t cancel marathons during flu season. Getting either the flu or CV would suck. I still go to work during flu season, but I think a lot people like the idea of being quarantined at home.

you contribute to disinformation

flu dead rate is 0.1%
CV 2.5-3.0%
about 25 to 30 times more deadly

you go to work during flu season because world is protected with medicaments and vaccines vs flu
otherwise trust me, you wont go out also with flu

please inform yourself before spreading wrong data

Last minute cancellation !

Just announced by Health Minister

 
As said by Plissken74, death rate of CoViD-19 is 25 to 30 times higher than flu.

Concentrating on old and weak peoples (same as flu). On this population, death rate is way above 10%. Probably similar % as Russian roulette....

Propagating as flu.

All peoples with friend and family person above 70 years old, or weakened by other issues, are right to be careful.

I'm still seeing different data, and I think you are mixing rates of population and infected people. There also isn't enough data to accurately estimate how deadly CV is since there have been so few cases compared to the estimated billion people who get the flu each year worldwide.

Here is my source: John Hopkins Medicine summary of Corona Virus v. The Flu: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/...ease-2019-vs-the-flu