Don't give me that news! I have a Swiss/Italy cycling trip at the end of June

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IG - @ryanppax
http://www.geluminati.com
Use code ST5 for $5 off your order

Well, Ireland and Italy called off their MAR 7th Six Nations match...

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Related-unrelated...

I'm doing Panama 70.3 in August and have some concerns with this as well. Not that it has hit central or South America yet but it's inevitable and countries like that aren't as resource rich to deal with it as your G8+China countries.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I am registered for the France MaxiRace ultra trail race at the end of May in Annecy. My wife and I are now looking at other options for a vacation in the U.S. during that time period.

Obviously it's too early to make a final decision, but I'm already considering the scenario where there are still new cases of coronavirus in Europe in late May, but we are allowed to travel to Geneva from the U.S. then return to the U.S. a week later. Then the question becomes do I, a healthy 61 year old, do the 50 mile ultra run with 17K feet of elevation gain and risk being immune compromised in the days after the race? My wife certainly doesn't want me to quarantine myself in our hotel room for three or four days after the race. My immune system should be working very well on the trip to France after a long taper.

I'm also wondering whether the race insurance I purchased will cover my entry fee if the race still happens but I'm either too worried or not allowed to travel to Geneva from the U.S. I haven't looked at the insurance details yet.

I probably have another 4 to 6 weeks to obsess about this as we haven't purchased airline tickets yet.

World panic is accelerating at the same time the number of active cases is decreasing. We aren't out of the woods yet, but active cases peaked mid Feb and have dropped about 10,000 to today with 48,165 active (i.e., those who are still sick as opposed to recovered or dead).

after the Tokyo Marathon was cancelled for non-elites, i believe it is safe to say that every race, everywhere is facing uncertainty at the moment

*Edited to include which Tokyo event was cancelled*

I do hope you are correct but the numbers say otherwise. Last week there were only three known infections in Italy (including two chinese tourists), and now there are more that 320 infections Therre were only six casualties in Italy two days ago, now there are 12. And cases have been confirmed in Zurich, the Swiss Alps, Austria, German, etc.

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I'm signed up for IM Vitoria in Spain in July. I'm banking on them getting this thing under control before then.

Might want to look at all your options as I am looking at mine. Just Sayin.

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Which Tokyo event are you referring to? The olympics? That has not been cancelled, just rumors at this stage.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

I think your major risk is more around countries restricting travel or IM simply cancels the event. The risks of the Coronavirus itself may be over-hyped in the current presentation by mainstream media.

For example, when you look outside of China, the death rate is low compared to SARS and MERS. The Coronavirus death rate is currently higher than seasonal flu (outside of China), but my hunch is that it will trend toward flu as science understands it over the next few months. Just for reference, Coronavirus has about 80K cases so far, compared to ~35M flu cases in a year. And, flu kills around ~25K where Coronavirus has killed 2,400 so far.

Coronavirus R0 is on par with SARS, H1N1, and flu. But I would not be surprised if that falls rapidly as science gains better understanding.

But the race is in Jun/Jul

I was hopping this Corona thing would be behind us by then!

Indeed, or the following:

- IM cancels in the last minute, a few days before we arrive;
- Air France cancels my flight to Zurich;
- Air France cancels my return flight from Rome;
- We cannot go back into the US;
- Our hotels and Air bnbs in Switzerland and Italy are closed;
- We cannot rent a car;
- ... and so many other possible complications.

Whatever, the case may be there are SEVEN of us registered and traveling with our families to this event.
And we all need to make a plan "C" (pun intended).

If IM were to cancel it, I just hope they do it sooner than later.

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I believe the poster was referring to the Tokyo Marathon. IIRC only the elites are running, maybe a couple of hundred runners?

It's like planning a vacation in the Caribbean sea during hurricane season. Something may happen. Or something may not. Business and governments do not want to cancel things, so they will likely hold off as long as possible before making those kinds of decisions. You will probably not know anything conclusive until July.

There is some hope that the CV infections will act like the flu does once weather warms up, ie basically disappear till next winter. Hope that is the case, but we will see!

I edited the post so that it's clear I meant the marathon

You have a greater chance of catching the virus in the USA, than France. Go do the race.

Not even a good rumor; the IOC confirmed today that the Olympics are proceeding as planned.

Your major concern is the event getting cancelled. Not actually getting sick.

You are fit and healthy and not over 70.

Even if you got it, you've just get the flu and not die.

It's so over hyped by the media.

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You are looking at only one part of the total picture. Here are the facts:

1) New cases continue to appear (i.e., part of the figures you cited above), BUT;
2) While the total number of diagnosed cases is still increasing the rate of increase is slowing!! (This is key!!). AND:
3) The number of resolved cases daily is now exceeding the number of new cases which leads to:
4) The total number of active cases is declining.

I'm personally watching #4 closely while the news media is covering only #1 which freaks everyone out. Meanwhile, 100 American kids have already died from the flu this season.

And surprisingly none have died from Corona yet.

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https://covid19info.live/
Can see some trends and information here.

I agree with PJC. The flu is much worse and kills 10,000 - 30,000 every year in the USA alone. But most people don't bother to get a flu shot. No one cares about the flu. CV doesn't is also mild on on children. In the next few months CV may be everywhere but we wouldn't even notice if wasn't for the news going nuts about it.

Viruses which can transmit through the air, are much less capable of doing so in warmer weather, that's why many more people have colds or the flu in winter time. The original SARS-virus disappeared at the onset of spring because much fewer people got infected, mostly because of higher temperatures.
This outbreak is much larger, and the virus seems to be more contagious, but I would have good hopes it will get knocked down by spring to a large extent at least. There are some areas in Asia with pretty large and dense populations which don't have the best healthcare systems, but where the virus (so far) doesn't seem to be able to spread (India, Indonesia), most of the areas where it seems to spread are cold right now, the areas where it hardly spreads are much warmer. Fingers crossed this theory will hold up.

I WANT to do the race. I want to travel to Zurich, and hike around the Alps, and drive to Milan, and to Tuscanny, and to Rome.

The Problem is if everything gets cancelled. Then that will suck!

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We wouldn't have noticed large sections of China basically being shut down? I don't know what's going to happen going forward as the virus travels around the world, but I don't think the news went nuts over what has been happening in China. In fact, it's been muted in newspaper coverage compared to what I expected, but I watch very little television.

I think they would delay rather than cancel. 70.3 Davao was moved to May. I think Taiwan was moved, too

A friend of a friend was to be in that race (not elite so cancelled).
Thing is, as the flights hotels etc etc all booked and paid for folks will still travel (he and his Mrs are) and will just not run a mara. Its holiday time instead.
The majority of the risk of the subsequent spread surely still exists ? The only reduction in risk is not having 30,000 or more running near each other for a few hours. Which is surely inconsequetial compared to about 6 MILLION being in close quarters to each other every day in thst city.

Yeah Taiwan has been moved to later in the year. Most professional at Geelong 70.3 in Australia are now scrambling for other events.

Challenge Shepparton in Victoria Australia will for the first time in many many years have an amazing professional field

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Just to confirm, how many deaths in car crashes in Italy in the same time?

I think the risk from this thing is way out of whack from the actual threat. The majority of people who get it won't die anyway, they will just get sick. To lock down the entire world economy because of this would be like locking down the entire world automotive network because some people might die in a car accident.

People are just scared of things they are unfamiliar with....now having said, that I will likely die now from this stupid virus before I die from a bolt of lightening, being run over by a bus, in car crash, cancer or a heart attack (ranked in order from least probably to most probable)

Not sure about your particular race but insurance will most likely require a CDC travel advisory saying "Do NOT travel to France" before they will cover you.

Sometimes, the airlines and races can be reasonable but the hotel will not be. We had rooms, and activities, booked at The Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas. The week we were to be down there, a Cat 4 hurricane was heading toward the islands. Our flight was to arrive two days before the hurricane hit. Eventually, Delta stopped flights in to the Bahamas. The Atlantis Hotel was like "no worries. We'll put you and your family in our very large conference area for a few nights while we regain electricity and running water. You will be safe"

There's literally nothing anyone in this thread can say advise-wise on whether that event or any other event will or won't occur. Nobody knows this far out. No super knowledgeable health officials at the top of their game, not governments, nor even ST'ers.

There's zero reason to believe that any one event is more or less likely to be cancelled than another. I would fully expect IM to be heavily cautious. And 5 months out there's no way to know which areas this will shift to and still be in then. And there's no reason to think the US will be any better off in 5 months than any other country today.

About the only valid thing to say is that if you don't have travel insurance for said trip (given 7 people), now would be a pretty darn good time to get it. I'm the most anti-travel insurance person ever, but if I had a large trip planned like that, I'd sure as heck get it given the circumstances.

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My tiny little slice of the internets: dcrainmaker.com

This is the most sensible response by far to my post. (Thanks Ray! As always you make a lot of sense).

All seven of us will meet this weekend to discuss all our options and make plans depending on all the possible scenarios. Unfortunately, some of us have travel insurance, while some do not. I personally can cancel all my hotel, AirBNB, car rental bookings in Switzerland and Italy during that entire two week period. But I will recommend to the group to get some sort of travel insurance.

Right now, we all want to do this IM and push through with our vacation plan. We've been planning this since September 2019 and it would be a waste if we did not push through. But as Ray said, there are so many unknowns and things can change for the better or the worse. I hope that if IM does cancel the event, that they make the announcement sooner than later. I've had IM events moved before (IM Nice 2014), and IM gave me the option for a full refund.

Lets wait and see.

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I purchased entry fee insurance from the race. I read it yesterday and they said they may refund the entry fee if they get a letter from a doctor saying that I am unable to run the weekend of the race.

The drop in the no. of deaths over the past couple of days is encouraging, but I don't think the rest of the world is going to be able to, or want to, quarantine like they have so far in China so I still don't think we can accurately estimate yet what the death rate will be going forward as the virus travels around the world. I don't know if we can trust the statistics from China.

I think you answered your own questions with this wording: "Right now, we all want to do this IM and push through with our vacation plan." Keep pushing through...its gonna happena and all this will be academic by this summer (I hope because I want the Tokyo Olympics to happen dammit).

Dev

I doubt you'll be able to get a doctor to sign off on that unless you actually have an injury or illness that prevents you from competing.

I agree about the statistics coming out of China

I think statistics coming out of S. Korea is pretty accurate. They can test over 20,000 people in one day.
If you follow them closely, I think you can kinda tell what's happening and what's going to happen in other countries.

Agree. Watching both South Korea and Italy

That is a very fair comment. A doctor with some great vision in China warned authorities about the virus months ahead of time, he was put in jail, and ended up dying from the disease.

For me, it is wait and see, hope things get better soon but I am not too keen on planning a lot of traveling over the next few months just yet.

Amen!


Too late for that. You cannot buy travel insurance that covers you for a pandemic that has already been announced.

Exactly. Any sort of public gathering upcoming should and will come under question through the rest of this calendar year. No country or city will want to be responsible for the risks that come with brining in people from the outside into their locales.

Don't be another dismissive idiot. The threat is real and it's spreading like wildfire. There have been a lot of casualties and numbers are rising. We can't panic as a result, but acting like this isn't a really big problem is asinine at best.

This reads like panic in light of the data. Total active cases are in decline worldwide, largely driven by China. And China is probably a great leading indicator, considering how badly it started there. The Growth Factor is popping above and below 1, so it does not look like an exponential curve. R0, incubation period, and contagion period are on par with others like H1N1, SARS, MERS, and the flu. It is spreading worldwide, but it appears to be more measured than "spreading like wildfire."

Yeah, but death rate based on those that get it is ~2%. If the entire world gets it (which we won't), only 2% of us will die. The world will move on with the the other 98% (I am being extreme, but all of us won't die from this). Even if it speads like wild fire to 100% of us, 98% of the world will get along. Realistically speaking the world economy will probably be hurt more with 100% of us slowing everything down vs just moving on with life and work and some percent of 100% of us getting sick at some point and 2% dying. We're all going to die anyway.

I am not being asinine, people are rightfully scared but they are not looking at the math and probabilities. The negative outcome of the entire world slowing down is likely worse. Last time I checked <3000 people have died from this. That seems miniscule compared to other ways of dying in the same period. And I get that way more than 3000 will die soon and its going to go up by orders of magnitude, but if it went up by three orders, its only 3 million (and yes, I may be one of them and that's fine)

"Don't be another dismissive idiot. The threat is real and it's spreading like wildfire. There have been a lot of casualties and numbers are rising. We can't panic as a result, but acting like this isn't a really big problem is asinine at best."
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Far more people have died in motor vehicle crashes in the same period of time, and that is a repeating occurrence. There isn't a panic from that. Certainly I agree with you that we want to take this seriously, but here are many other/bigger risks that we face every day; and, this one will certainly pass at some point. Although, the world wouldn't be the same with just Dev's 98% of us :-)!

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

You do realize that the biggest issue to any of these sicknesses isn't the healthy people getting it because we won't die from it. It is us getting it then spreading it to old people or young people who will be impacted much more by it. The flu for healthy people sucks but no biggie. The flu for an infant or small child or an older person or someone with weak immune system is deadly.

You are right, 2% doesn't seem terrible but I would much much MUCH rather everyone be a lot more cautious of any disease like this then after say "see it wasn't as bad" rather than take it lightly and have those people who will be most impacted by it die.

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Twitter - Instagram

More people have died from the flu this season in the US... based on a couple places I looked. The 2 percent is also with the assumption they are capturing all the people that have it but may not have had symptoms. It’s a new virus, we don’t know if a large percentage of people have it but don’t show symptoms, which would dramatically decrease the death rate.

hey, its my evil plot to take out the top 2% of the 55-59 studs...

The 2% is also assuming that everybody who currently has it will survive, so far 8% of the completed cases resulted in death.

You don’t have to worry about me anymore… I am 60 - 64 :-)

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

In the shorter-term, I am registered for IMNZ next weekend. New Zealand does not have any registered cases of coronavirus yet, probably because of a very strict immigration policy. However, IMNZ brags on being the most international race in the calendar, attracting mostly athletes from Asia.

As a person at risk (I have a weak immune systems due to my immunosuppressive MS drugs), I am a bit concerned…
- Is it reasonable to expect communications from Ironman?
- What prevention measures could they take if the races go ahead? no portaloo? Bring your own cup at aid stations? No aid stations at all…? (self-supported race)
- Does that sound too unrealistic?

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/

I got you in the 98% survivor bucket. You should easily punch a KQ once the top 2% in your age group are wiped out of the standings.

Do you live in NZ? If not, how are you traveling to the event and from where? I'd be more worried about potentially being exposed to the virus before and after the event, not during the IM. If this isn't your first IM, do you know or have a sense whether finishing an IM further compromises your immune system temporarily? There are studies that indicate that endurance events temporarily compromise the immune system of a person with a healthy immune system, but I don't know if it would have the same effect on you.

Good luck to you!

Exactly, but most people are so self absorbed they don't think about anyone else. My wife is in heart failure going on 6 years. She just had the flu and bronchitis. It resulted in 3 ER trips in 1 week. It took 4 plus weeks to recover. People need to safeguard themselves and others from illness for the sake of children, elderly and immuno compromised folks. Its our responsibility as society.

And of course don't forget those 2% are more likely to include your own young children or your own aging parents or family member with underlaying health problems than it will be you.
And the risk is of course Additive to the risks from the other issues.

The stat comes out from China shows very little impact on young/teenage. The deaths are mostly 60+ or ppl with pre existing condition.

Just heard that here in Switzerland all events expected to attract crowds in excess of 1000 people are banned until further notice. This decision is due to be reviewed again on March 15th. No specific news of whether this has an impact yet in IM Thun but worth being aware of the situation.

Received confirmation today that Liuzhou 70.3 has been postponed from April 14th to September 20th

No big surprise really

This!!!!

I'm supposed to be tapering for the my local HM this Sunday, the semi-marathon de Paris. It practically runs by my apartment, and for the past *8 years* I've had to watch it go by while being either too injured or too early post-injury to run it. Thanks to BarryP running for past 6 months, I was finally ready to run a very slow HM - my first, at the age of 48.

Problem is, I got a cold last week that I can't shake off.

While I'm not at risk for COVID-19 according to the docs (was just screened), I've been asking myself is it really worth potentially making myself sicker, and perhaps taking up medical resources, or more likely, infecting others when there is good probability of a pandemic in France? Is it really worth my own personal sense of accomplishment? It seems really, really selfish.

Yet at the same time can't help but feel in endurance circles to bail on a race that you are physically capable of completing is 'wimpy' and feel sheepish to bail on something I've wanted to do for so long.

Asia: Just an update from talking to our people in Asia. Many companies are back to work in China and everyone we know will be back by next week. Taiwan companies were back at work at the beginning of this past week so it looks like supply chains will be back on track soon.

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Dan Kennison

facebook: @triPremierBike
http://www.PremierBike.com
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I ordered something from China and that's what the lady said. They will ship my stuff on Feb 29, so it looks like that's the date government gave companies they may start working. Obviously, China postal service will start working n 29th.

That's right, and the Geneva motorshow is cancelled which is pretty big news: https://www.gims.swiss/
A friend of mine here in Switzerland is organizer of a small regional bicycle race tomorrow; even for this the authorities asked for an evaluation of whether the event should be cancelled because of the coronavirus risk. I'd say likelihood of a quarantine being imposed in my region is going up daily...

Paris Half Marathon (44.000 peoples this week end) is going on.

we don't have to worry about travelling anymore, looks like we've imported the virus directly -

1. Fourteen infected people were flown back from Japan in a plane with healthy passengers, despite CDC warnings.
https://www.politico.com/...-trump-cruise-117760

2. Those infected people were treated as follows -
https://www.nytimes.com/...s-whistleblower.html

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees per HHS whistleblower.
DHS workers “health concerns were dismissed ...as detrimental to...’morale.’ They were ‘admonished’...and ‘accused of not being team players,’ and had their ‘mental health and emotional stability questioned.’”
These workers were also allowed to disperse into the general population.

3. resulting in new infections,
https://www.msn.com/...-BB10vPWh?li=BBnb7Kz


The patient didn't have any relevant travel history, exposure to another known patient and wasn't one of the evacuees repatriated from China, officials said.
"This does appear to be a person who genuinely did acquire their illness in the community," Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said in a news conference Thursday.


Next steps,

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...s-to-strike-the-u-s/

We should prepare, not because we may feel personally at risk, but so that we can help lessen the risk for everyone. We should prepare not because we are facing a doomsday scenario out of our control, but because we can alter every aspect of this risk we face as a society.

Prepare because your neighbors need you to prepare—especially your elderly neighbors, your neighbors who work at hospitals, your neighbors with chronic illnesses, and your neighbors who may not have the means or the time to prepare because of lack of resources or time.



As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected.

"As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected. "

I wish they would interview someone who has had it and is back to "normal". I talk to people who have had this year's flu and they say they are sick for a few days and then back to work and fully recovered in a week (or two). I think a few interviews like this would calm fears.

You absolutely cannot make the leap that this case was a result of the infected patients flown in without more information.

It's possible. But there are also other very plausible possibilities. E.g. the 10's of thousands of people who enter the United States daily from all over the globe.

I don’t think the issue is the death rate, I think it’s the impact a swift pandemic will have on emergency services and their ability to cope.

No vaccine and hospitals over filled can lead to all sorts of problems, especially if hundreds of thousands of people suddenly all need treatment at once

I think you should look at math in a different way
1) lets take Italy with 60millions people as example. every season, 6 millions italians get infected with flu. 1 out 1000 dies and we have an average of 6000 deaths for flu per season. Despite all the medicaments and vaccines available.
CV has about 2.5% mortality at this stage. without any available medicament. if it spreads like flu, we would have 150,000 deaths per season!!!!
Translating into US population, you would have every year 750,000 dead americans

2) "most people dont bother to get a flu shot": this is a terrible mistake because if it is not useful for you, young and strong, it reduces the % of you getting it and spreading it to weak people who still today unfortunately keep dying because of this

I get a flu shot every year. The Corona Virus is not as deadly as the flu. We don’t cancel marathons during flu season. Getting either the flu or CV would suck. I still go to work during flu season, but I think a lot people like the idea of being quarantined at home.

you contribute to disinformation

flu dead rate is 0.1%
CV 2.5-3.0%
about 25 to 30 times more deadly

you go to work during flu season because world is protected with medicaments and vaccines vs flu
otherwise trust me, you wont go out also with flu

please inform yourself before spreading wrong data

Last minute cancellation !

Just announced by Health Minister

 
As said by Plissken74, death rate of CoViD-19 is 25 to 30 times higher than flu.

Concentrating on old and weak peoples (same as flu). On this population, death rate is way above 10%. Probably similar % as Russian roulette....

Propagating as flu.

All peoples with friend and family person above 70 years old, or weakened by other issues, are right to be careful.

I'm still seeing different data, and I think you are mixing rates of population and infected people. There also isn't enough data to accurately estimate how deadly CV is since there have been so few cases compared to the estimated billion people who get the flu each year worldwide.

Here is my source: John Hopkins Medicine summary of Corona Virus v. The Flu: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/...ease-2019-vs-the-flu

Read some history

“The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.”

From the data in you link:

Corona: cases - 84,119 | Deaths - 2,871 | Mortality Rate - 3.4%
Seasonal Flu: cases - 1,000,000,000 (approx) | Deaths - 291,000 - 646,000 | Mortality Rate - .03% - .07%

So, PER YOUR DATA SOURCE, CV is significantly more deadly than the seasonal flu.

The one caveat is delete China from the analysis. The rest of the world is a fraction of China. My hunch is China was trying to suppress information and therefore response, which caused very high transmission and death rates.

Yeah, I’d agree with that. I think we are still learning a lot about the virus, so I’m not going to claim to know it’s mortality rate. It’s clearly worse than the flu though.

I was more pointing out that his data didn’t say what he thought it said.

Yeah, this is one of those instances where a little knowledge of statistics is dangerous.

I'm an engineer who uses statistics daily. But I still don't act like a professional epidemiologist on the internet. I tend to trust the consensus statements from the professional epidemiologists. They're very hesitant to say anything about case-fatality rates except in specific contexts, like the JAMA paper summarizing cases in China.

yep. To do it correctly, the data need to be of the same cohort—resolved cases. So, the denominator should be resolved cases, not total cases. But, all the news outlets are reporting death rates against total cases.

* I am not a statistician, but I have a pretty good handle on statically analysis. And at one point, I had dozens of epidemiologists working for me.

I think there are no stats YET on total cases. Total cases MAY be way higher. Lots of people may have this and have no clue they have it (and they will live). Without proper studies we don't know mortality rates anyway...reports are 2-3% based only on known cases. Its probably a lot lower mortality rate.

Stop it. You're not an epidemiologist. It's fine for us to play internet expert in aero or training. This is real life. Let the experts figure this out for us.

Exactly! "Probably" a lot lower mortality rate. What the eff does he know about the coronavirus other than what's being said in the news.

I don't know why people keep trying to downplay the problems associated with this outbreak. It's a bad situation for everyone and acting like it isn't a problem is foolish at best. I wish people would just open their eyes and not be so dense and insensitive. It's pretty ugly and disrespectful to the victims of this terrible illness.

Wait... is it asinine at best or foolish at best? And wish is worse?

You don't get to decide what others on the internet talk about. I am entitle to my OPINION that rates are LIKELY lower. We don't know if all cases have been identified and recorded (well maybe they are, but my opinion is we don't know). Lots of governments around the world have an incentive to under report.

Its all opions on the internet. We won't have a any real facts for a long long time. Right now we're dealing with a cross between facts, propaganda and cover ups along with media hype, so its just a ton of misinformation all floating around for everyone to discuss.

Heck the latest talk is no one from any teams (management/workers/riders) at the UAE tour tested positive for Covid19 and it MAY have just been hyper reactions. Or maybe not depending on where you read what.

All anyone knows is how many people actually died. We don't know how many people have been infected, so we can just go by how many cases have been reported. This may be 100% of cases reported, it my be 99.999, it may be 50%....no one knows.

Its not downplaying anything other than a lot of people are going to get laid off and loose jobs pretty soon because of the reaction to this which may or may not be proportional to the threat. Right now it may be out of proportion. Once Wall street sneezes, the little guy down in the factory gets the pink slip (sadly this is how the world works)

Both sadly. You would think people would care more, but most live in a bubble and don't give a rat until it hits them. Put yourself in someone else's shoes for just a minute because these things can easily happen to anyone.

You're free to think however you want. We are also free to have an opinion about you based on the factless statements you're doubling down on. It may be hard for you, but try to have some perspective and empathy about what others are going through instead of acting like you're the smartest guy in the room.

What makes you think that I would no have empathy for someone personally affected. I just had an employee who needed to visit Iran around all this stuff and was in and out of hospitals there helping support a family member potentially fighting a terminal disease around all of this craziness. Another employee has elder family members in an affected zone who have self quarantined to just be safe. For the former employee when that person left the affected zone got immediately tested (clear). Other employees of mine have made trips to China recently (at least after this would have all started). I was traveling 2 weeks ago through places now affected. Personal empathy is separate from a discussion on top level reported deaths and reported/recorded cases. They are not mutually exclusive.

You're reading too much on a discussion about reported total deaths and total reported cases and comparisons with other causes of death (and we're all going to die anyway)

So you've had several personal experiences with this virus and employees, yet you think the number of cases is overinflated and that the threat is overstated? If I had the same experiences I would have a much different opinion. Keep being such a great public health advocate for your company and the world. We need more of those all knowing, selfless, caring humanitarians. I'm glad you're not displaying any narcissistic qualities. Also, the final statement about how we're all going to die anyway shows a lot of that empathy you speak of.

I guess we both have a different perspective on life. Yes we are all going to die. This is nothing about empathy, we're just renting time on earth and its just a question of when we die and what we do in between. If the entire world locks itself down in fear, everyone is still going to die at some point of something else anyway. The downward economic impact of all kinds of people getting laid off and companies shutting down in my opinion is going to be way worse than some of us getting this virus.

The discussion was just about reported cases versus deaths. I'm saying that we don't know the entire picture yet. I can still have empathy for those directly affected while also discussing that the entire statistical picture is not yet known and that its way lower odds than heart attacks, cancer and driving deaths (for now).

I do hope that Ironman Switzerland (subject of this thread) goes on. Lizhou70.3 is cancelled. Other events are being postponed (ITU Abu Dhabi Postponed, fortunately IM70.3 Oman last weekend went off). Cycling Track Worlds in Berlin went on, but Paris half marathon go the axe. UAE Cycling World Tour Stage race got the axe right after the Thursday Jabel Hafeet climbing stage, but fortunately in that race, the GC was sealed up by Adam Yates...unlikely he was going to lose, so it was a few uncontested sprinter stages. Who knows what will happen with Milan San Remo and even Paris Nice (if they cancelled the Paris half marathon hopefully Paris Nice goes as planned).

I just booked hotels for biz meetings in another Canadian city. Hotels that you would normally pay $300 - $600 are going for $60 - $150. My wife noted that the same hotels this summer are jacked up even higher (I guess they are hoping to make up revenue in the future when everyone hopes the virus blows over).

I'll chime in a little. I'm not an epidemiologist, but I've received some training as an infectious disease specialist. I work in a moderately large private medical group. My partner, who happens to be my training partner too, is in charge of managing outbreaks and potential outbreaks for our practice. I've sat in with her on a couple conference calls with our primary care and immediate care docs.

I believe that the mortality rate is probably lower, but don't know for sure. We know the data isn't great. Who knows how reliable the data is from China. The test that's being used in the US is flawed. This is also cold and flu season (I'm currently seeing lots of flu A and human coronavirus). How many healthy people get tested when they get the cold or the flu? The symptoms of COVID are similar.

In regard to downplaying, I disagree. I'm afraid of mass hysteria. Some of the docs in my practice are already thinking irrationally. Some of my patients are even worse. One example is the masks. With the general public, it's only beneficial to place on those who are sick. Evidence for health people is mixed at best. I'm pissed that people are buying up and stealing masks. I need those especially if there an outbreak. I'm worried about this with my elderly patient and those with compromised immune systems. If I get sick, I can't take care of them and there are only 4 of us in our ID practice that cover 4 hospitals. I'm ethnically Asian and I'm sick of the racist/xenophobic BS (wearing a white coat protects me from a lot of that).

Am I worried about this? Yes, it's a strange virus in regards to the way it spreads/is transmitted. However, I am just as worried every year during flu outbreaks. I've unfortunately seen deaths from flu from every patient population (pediatrics to geriatrics, super healthy with no medical history to very sick).

I am a bit surprise that Ironman hasn't made a formal statement on this? So many sporting events (at least ones where there are alot of international folks flying in) have been either cancelled or postponed.

As you correctly mentioned, NZ might not have a registered case yet but what's equally important is that people are flying in from all over the world for an event. The risk of someone carrying the virus and spreading it and people taking it back to where they come from is real. Not being an alarmist here but this is why conferences and sporting events have been cancelled or moved over the last few weeks

IM should show some leadership and make a statement. At least reassure the general population that its safe or advising people who have flu like symptoms not to take show up etc

I have reached out to IM New Zealand 3 days ago about the coronavirus issue but I am yet to hear back...

So far, the only updates they give are stupid GIFs on their Facebook page.
After the change of schedule disaster (which I personally do not mind), I feel like there are communication issues in 2020 for IMNZ...

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/

As for the rates. People talk a lot about 2-3% death rate. If you look at completed cases it's currently 7%, but was 9% last week.
The survival rates in Wuhan could have been negatively affected by the sudden need for mass care, tens of thousands of people needed treatment. This will affected the level of care. In Europe there are now cases popping up left and right, but few hospitals deal with more than just a few patients, so patients can be monitored much more closely. As time progresses hospitals will get better in treating the patients, which will reduce the death rate further, will it get as close as 2%? Time will tell, I think the current worry is the amount of places it's popping up.

Looks like the first two rounds of Motogp have been cancelled as of yesterday. This is only getting bigger and some hard decisions on events will have to be made soon. Not looking good for the Olympics...

https://www.crash.net/...ncelled-motogp-class

Bingo!

My event is in July so there is time.

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A M E N !!!

OP here.

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I wrote the above only six days ago.

The death toll in Italy jumped to 79 today. Total infections have risen to 2,502 so far with 90 percent located in northern Italy, where we plan to visit. Italy has had by far the largest outbreak outside of Asia.

I am just waiting for IM to cancel IM Switzerland.

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I'm racing in Vitoria Spain the same day. Hoping the virus is on the decline by then and nothing gets cancelled. Been holding off on getting my plane tickets. I'm thinking we have maybe 2-3 months to get things turned around before they decide to pull the plug.

A little optimism doesn't hurt anyone! And it's also common sense in these cases, there are five months to go. I'll travel from Argentina to run in Thun. I am registered since the 1st week that the registration opened.


And I'm waiting that there is no news and we can all run. See you in Thun.

Looking at upcoming IM races I guess the watershed race will be the first race of the North American season that’s 5 weeks away in Oceanside. If O’Side gets canned then maybe that will set the tone for the next few months as the season in the northern hemisphere starts to gather momentum. *I guess you could argue that Coronado 5i50 could be the watershed race a few weeks before Oceanside*

Vested interest in O’Side as I’m entered and rather looking forward to it.

Agree. I'm signed up for the MaxiRace in late May in France just across the border from Switzerland and I'd be very surprised, at this point, if the Maxi-Race is cancelled more than a month out.

Thank you for your concern Mark.
I have talked to my neurologists and GPs, they do not mind me racing IM New Zealand. They advised to take the usual precautions from WHO (washing hands, maintaining social distance where possible, etc.)

Just received the following from IM New Zealand:

Kia Ora,

The IRONMAN Group is aware of the evolving situation related to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) that has resulted in the World Health Organization declaring a public health emergency of international concern. We are monitoring the situation very closely and are continuing to work with the local authorities to follow and implement measures dictated by national and international health agencies and governments.

At this stage the Ministry of Health (MOH) does not propose altering arrangements for public events, and therefore we will be proceeding with Nutri-Grain IRONMAN New Zealand 2020 as planned.

We do want to reiterate that the most important thing you can do is practice good hygiene. The MOH recommends the following:

• Covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or coughing/sneezing into your elbow
• Disposing of used tissues appropriately in a bin
• Washing hands for at least 20 seconds with soap and water and drying them thoroughly or using hand sanitiser
  
  • Before eating or handling food
  • After using the toilet
  • After coughing, sneezing, blowing your nose or wiping children's noses
  • After touching public surfaces
• Trying to keep metre away from people who are unwell

For up to date information on Covid-19 refer to the Ministry of Health Website at www.health.govt.nz.

Kind regards,
Wayne Reardon - Race Director

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/

Great! I wish you safe travels and a fun IM!

I did another internet search after responding to your initial post and found this 2018 study that discusses the myth of exercise-induced immunity suppression. Interesting reading. I certainly agree that leading an active lifestyle is likely to be beneficial, rather than detrimental, to immune function.

Super news and best of luck on your own race!!!!

  


Hi from Switzerland

Despite of what you may hear in the medias, this is by far not what some make of it.
There is a lot of overreacting going on. To compare:

- In any normal year 4'000 - 5'000 People die in Europe from the regular flu.
- In the hot summer 2003 15'000 died from the heat, in France alone!
- Worldwide 13 millions(!) of people are actually suffering from leprocy. Right now.

The 97% who survive the corona virus will be fine within 7 - 10 days.
I don't expect my spring bike training in Italy around easter to be in danger by now.

The chance of cancelation for IM Switzerland are imho around 1 %
If this is still a talking point by the end of April, we will have a much bigger problem than canceled triathlons.....

Best regards, stay safe anyone. We are looking forward to you racing here:-)

massi

So it's been about 6 weeks from your post and IM Thun is still showing as happening on July 12, but I can't imagine it goes off that day. Can't imagine getting volunteers to help out. And I can't imagine flying with my family and doing the race then.

Received an e-mail this morning that is it officially rescheduled to july 11th 2021..

I think this was the first thread in the tri forum to discuss coronavirus. What a long two months it's been. The race in France I discussed earlier was recently cancelled and I deferred my entry until May 2021, so hopefully both you and I can respond to this thread on the first anniversary of your initial post with optimism about traveling to Europe in the coming months for our chosen races!

I was able to modify my hotel reservation with no additional costs. I hope you didn't lose too much $ with the postponement to next year.

This was the first thread ever to discuss the coronavirus. And some responded by saying that I was hyping it too much and blah blah blah...

So I stopped posting on the thread.

Its been two months since I made that post and the worlds has changed. I wonder what all those naysayers think now. (You know who you are.)

Anyway, I did get the notice from IM and I will do IM Switzerland in 2021. I intend to move my hotel reservations to a year from now. We will call
Air France today to move our flights too.

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are you still convinced? I guess wherever you live, by now you are in lockdown

1% and bla bla bla...

where are you?

"... if this is still a talking point by the end of April, we will have a much bigger problem than canceled triathlons...."

Well he was absolutely right on that. We're witnessing the wrecking of the global economy. I'm not concerned about the odd cancelled Tri.
I'm concerned about how I'll be paying my mortgage in 6 months time.

With the way things are going down here in Oz it looks like we will be racing again this year. Triathlon Australia today pinned October 1st as the possible start date for our 2020/21 season.They will review the current removal of sanctioning of events in June.

Just signed up for Thun 2021, and came across this thread. Wow. Remarkable how far off most predictions were. In case anyone wants a second chance, any guesses about the likelihood that 2021 IM Thun will happen?

I dont think i was part of the people who underestimate this situation

and here I ll tell you again the same prediction: it will happen if a vaccine will be available by then OR if a reusable daily personal testing device which provide a result in 2 minutes will be available

I was one of the respond to the initial post because I had registered for the MaXi-Race France trail ultra in Annecy at the end of May. It was cancelled after initially being postponed to July and I deferred my entry to next year, also to be held at the end of May.

My guess at this point is that MaXi-Race France (and IM Switzerland) will happen in 2021 but my wife and I remain skeptical that we will be willing to assume the risk of catching Covid-19 on the transatlantic flights and/or be willing/able to quarantine as may be required.

Yes, lots of not-so-accurate predictions in this thread. You know who you are. ;)

That sounds about right to me. I'd guess better than a 50% chance, but not much better.

MaXi-Race France, which just opened for registration for next year with a reduced cap of 5000 entries, has already named an alternative date (10/30 - 10/31) in case their scheduled date at the end of May needs to be postponed. I'm more confident that we'll be willing to fly to France in late October.

Hi,

I also registered for IM Thun 2021 (and live in Switzerland). Although the date is quite far away, I am rather optimistic.

We had a "semi-lockdown" in the whole country last fall, but in June/July 2020 the life was almost "normal" again with low numbers of Covid19 infections. I was even able to race a Sprint triathlon in September 2020. The initial date was end of June, but it was postponed to early September 2020. Reduced amount of participants: 300 persons instead of 500. Most competitions are/were cancelled this year, like everywhere else.

So even though the winter is going to be "bad" from a medical point of view (we have a lot of Covid cases at the moment and surprisingly the situation is worse than last spring), I think that the organizers will have the time to learn from other experiences (like IM Florida last week). Besides, the timing of early July is probably one of the best time windows (hot temperatures and dry weather, meaning probably low Covid cases at this period).

From a political point of view, currently the economy is pressuring a lot in order to refrain the Swiss authorities to proceed with a semi-lockdown like the one we had last fall. The medical decisions are being taken by the local (cantonal) authorities (last spring decisions were taken by the federal governement). The canton of Bern (where Thun is located) is not one of the most concerned by the Covid infections, amongst others due to its rural character (only rather small cities, the biggest being Bern, 4th biggest city of Switzerland, population of roughly 150'000). As far as I know, the cantonal authorities of Bern are not taking the most restrictive medical measures, compared to other cantons where the Covid 19 has spread much more within the population.

well the race is not running for the inhabitants of Thun and surroundings. there will be 2000 participants coming from all over the places. it doesnt matter where the race is organized (geographically). it matters what is the worldwide covid situation because you cant run Thun ironman with 500 people

The more rural areas in Switzerland that aren’t most concerned about COVID should pay attention to the more rural areas in the USA that had a similar mentality and weren’t more concerned about COVID. Parts of the USA that were mostly unscathed by COVID-19 during our spring and summer peaks in higher populated areas are currently getting their asses kicked by it. So you can tell the hicks in Switzerland that it’s eventually coming for them too.

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