Viruses which can transmit through the air, are much less capable of doing so in warmer weather, that's why many more people have colds or the flu in winter time. The original SARS-virus disappeared at the onset of spring because much fewer people got infected, mostly because of higher temperatures.
This outbreak is much larger, and the virus seems to be more contagious, but I would have good hopes it will get knocked down by spring to a large extent at least. There are some areas in Asia with pretty large and dense populations which don't have the best healthcare systems, but where the virus (so far) doesn't seem to be able to spread (India, Indonesia), most of the areas where it seems to spread are cold right now, the areas where it hardly spreads are much warmer. Fingers crossed this theory will hold up.

I WANT to do the race. I want to travel to Zurich, and hike around the Alps, and drive to Milan, and to Tuscanny, and to Rome.

The Problem is if everything gets cancelled. Then that will suck!

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We wouldn't have noticed large sections of China basically being shut down? I don't know what's going to happen going forward as the virus travels around the world, but I don't think the news went nuts over what has been happening in China. In fact, it's been muted in newspaper coverage compared to what I expected, but I watch very little television.

I think they would delay rather than cancel. 70.3 Davao was moved to May. I think Taiwan was moved, too

A friend of a friend was to be in that race (not elite so cancelled).
Thing is, as the flights hotels etc etc all booked and paid for folks will still travel (he and his Mrs are) and will just not run a mara. Its holiday time instead.
The majority of the risk of the subsequent spread surely still exists ? The only reduction in risk is not having 30,000 or more running near each other for a few hours. Which is surely inconsequetial compared to about 6 MILLION being in close quarters to each other every day in thst city.

Yeah Taiwan has been moved to later in the year. Most professional at Geelong 70.3 in Australia are now scrambling for other events.

Challenge Shepparton in Victoria Australia will for the first time in many many years have an amazing professional field

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Just to confirm, how many deaths in car crashes in Italy in the same time?

I think the risk from this thing is way out of whack from the actual threat. The majority of people who get it won't die anyway, they will just get sick. To lock down the entire world economy because of this would be like locking down the entire world automotive network because some people might die in a car accident.

People are just scared of things they are unfamiliar with....now having said, that I will likely die now from this stupid virus before I die from a bolt of lightening, being run over by a bus, in car crash, cancer or a heart attack (ranked in order from least probably to most probable)

Not sure about your particular race but insurance will most likely require a CDC travel advisory saying "Do NOT travel to France" before they will cover you.

Sometimes, the airlines and races can be reasonable but the hotel will not be. We had rooms, and activities, booked at The Atlantis Hotel in the Bahamas. The week we were to be down there, a Cat 4 hurricane was heading toward the islands. Our flight was to arrive two days before the hurricane hit. Eventually, Delta stopped flights in to the Bahamas. The Atlantis Hotel was like "no worries. We'll put you and your family in our very large conference area for a few nights while we regain electricity and running water. You will be safe"

There's literally nothing anyone in this thread can say advise-wise on whether that event or any other event will or won't occur. Nobody knows this far out. No super knowledgeable health officials at the top of their game, not governments, nor even ST'ers.

There's zero reason to believe that any one event is more or less likely to be cancelled than another. I would fully expect IM to be heavily cautious. And 5 months out there's no way to know which areas this will shift to and still be in then. And there's no reason to think the US will be any better off in 5 months than any other country today.

About the only valid thing to say is that if you don't have travel insurance for said trip (given 7 people), now would be a pretty darn good time to get it. I'm the most anti-travel insurance person ever, but if I had a large trip planned like that, I'd sure as heck get it given the circumstances.

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My tiny little slice of the internets: dcrainmaker.com

This is the most sensible response by far to my post. (Thanks Ray! As always you make a lot of sense).

All seven of us will meet this weekend to discuss all our options and make plans depending on all the possible scenarios. Unfortunately, some of us have travel insurance, while some do not. I personally can cancel all my hotel, AirBNB, car rental bookings in Switzerland and Italy during that entire two week period. But I will recommend to the group to get some sort of travel insurance.

Right now, we all want to do this IM and push through with our vacation plan. We've been planning this since September 2019 and it would be a waste if we did not push through. But as Ray said, there are so many unknowns and things can change for the better or the worse. I hope that if IM does cancel the event, that they make the announcement sooner than later. I've had IM events moved before (IM Nice 2014), and IM gave me the option for a full refund.

Lets wait and see.

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I purchased entry fee insurance from the race. I read it yesterday and they said they may refund the entry fee if they get a letter from a doctor saying that I am unable to run the weekend of the race.

The drop in the no. of deaths over the past couple of days is encouraging, but I don't think the rest of the world is going to be able to, or want to, quarantine like they have so far in China so I still don't think we can accurately estimate yet what the death rate will be going forward as the virus travels around the world. I don't know if we can trust the statistics from China.

I think you answered your own questions with this wording: "Right now, we all want to do this IM and push through with our vacation plan." Keep pushing through...its gonna happena and all this will be academic by this summer (I hope because I want the Tokyo Olympics to happen dammit).

Dev

I doubt you'll be able to get a doctor to sign off on that unless you actually have an injury or illness that prevents you from competing.

I agree about the statistics coming out of China

I think statistics coming out of S. Korea is pretty accurate. They can test over 20,000 people in one day.
If you follow them closely, I think you can kinda tell what's happening and what's going to happen in other countries.

Agree. Watching both South Korea and Italy

That is a very fair comment. A doctor with some great vision in China warned authorities about the virus months ahead of time, he was put in jail, and ended up dying from the disease.

For me, it is wait and see, hope things get better soon but I am not too keen on planning a lot of traveling over the next few months just yet.

Amen!


Too late for that. You cannot buy travel insurance that covers you for a pandemic that has already been announced.

Exactly. Any sort of public gathering upcoming should and will come under question through the rest of this calendar year. No country or city will want to be responsible for the risks that come with brining in people from the outside into their locales.

Don't be another dismissive idiot. The threat is real and it's spreading like wildfire. There have been a lot of casualties and numbers are rising. We can't panic as a result, but acting like this isn't a really big problem is asinine at best.

This reads like panic in light of the data. Total active cases are in decline worldwide, largely driven by China. And China is probably a great leading indicator, considering how badly it started there. The Growth Factor is popping above and below 1, so it does not look like an exponential curve. R0, incubation period, and contagion period are on par with others like H1N1, SARS, MERS, and the flu. It is spreading worldwide, but it appears to be more measured than "spreading like wildfire."

Yeah, but death rate based on those that get it is ~2%. If the entire world gets it (which we won't), only 2% of us will die. The world will move on with the the other 98% (I am being extreme, but all of us won't die from this). Even if it speads like wild fire to 100% of us, 98% of the world will get along. Realistically speaking the world economy will probably be hurt more with 100% of us slowing everything down vs just moving on with life and work and some percent of 100% of us getting sick at some point and 2% dying. We're all going to die anyway.

I am not being asinine, people are rightfully scared but they are not looking at the math and probabilities. The negative outcome of the entire world slowing down is likely worse. Last time I checked <3000 people have died from this. That seems miniscule compared to other ways of dying in the same period. And I get that way more than 3000 will die soon and its going to go up by orders of magnitude, but if it went up by three orders, its only 3 million (and yes, I may be one of them and that's fine)

"Don't be another dismissive idiot. The threat is real and it's spreading like wildfire. There have been a lot of casualties and numbers are rising. We can't panic as a result, but acting like this isn't a really big problem is asinine at best."
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Far more people have died in motor vehicle crashes in the same period of time, and that is a repeating occurrence. There isn't a panic from that. Certainly I agree with you that we want to take this seriously, but here are many other/bigger risks that we face every day; and, this one will certainly pass at some point. Although, the world wouldn't be the same with just Dev's 98% of us :-)!

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

You do realize that the biggest issue to any of these sicknesses isn't the healthy people getting it because we won't die from it. It is us getting it then spreading it to old people or young people who will be impacted much more by it. The flu for healthy people sucks but no biggie. The flu for an infant or small child or an older person or someone with weak immune system is deadly.

You are right, 2% doesn't seem terrible but I would much much MUCH rather everyone be a lot more cautious of any disease like this then after say "see it wasn't as bad" rather than take it lightly and have those people who will be most impacted by it die.

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More people have died from the flu this season in the US... based on a couple places I looked. The 2 percent is also with the assumption they are capturing all the people that have it but may not have had symptoms. It’s a new virus, we don’t know if a large percentage of people have it but don’t show symptoms, which would dramatically decrease the death rate.

hey, its my evil plot to take out the top 2% of the 55-59 studs...