dirtymangos wrote:
I am convinced that the unique danger with this race is cold rain and hail on the bike decents
Inclement and rapidly changing weather is always a possibility in the mountains, but certainly less likely in the morning than the afternoon. Unless there's a system/front moving through, I think everyone should be off the bike before the typical afternoon patterns kick in.
All the same, I think I'm leaning road bike now. I've been forcing myself to ride my TT lately after shelving it ~2 years ago after my last quasi-tri retirement and I rather despise riding it. It's damn fast, but eh, I have no strong competitive drive for this race and would rather enjoy the scenery and the experience rather than stare at the ground 5 feet in front of me for a few hours. Plus if the weather does turn south, I certainly am a lot more competent descender on my road bike.
darkhorsetri wrote:
FWIW, USAT recommends a cancelled swim for courses over 1500m and a water temp below 53. Other variables like air temp, altitude, etc. are taken into consideration by the RD before making a final call.
I'm not also so sure about your suggestion to swim fast to warm up
at an elevation of over 9000 feet. For "normal" elevations, I can agree with you, but going out hard at that altitude for most AGers with a water temp in the low 50s probably isn't the best idea. I
Alternatively, I'd try warming up on land while wearing my wettie in order to get warm before entering the water.
If I were placing bets placed on the information provided, and with the race still 3 weeks away, with days getting shorter and nights getting cooler, I would say there won't be a swim. I'd like to be wrong, however.
Highest swim I've ever done in a race was June lake at 7,654'. I was living at sea level then, but I was also actually training for the swim then as well and it was a real kick in the nuts. Definitely could not push the pace. I did Tahoe as well, that wasn't so bad. I now live in the Denver metro and do sporadic OWS and my pace still is affected by the altitude, but double that elevation going up to Dillon is an entirely different animal.
As for cancelling the swim, the water is still in the 60s down here in Denver but that doesn't mean a whole lot. Provided the info from the Marina was accurate, I can't see it warming up a ton but I'm still hoping for the swim as well despite the fact that it's always been my worst event and I've swam once a week for the past few months if I'm lucky.
If they do hold it and the water is in the 50's, I recommend people considering grabbing a pear of neoprene swim socks / booties, you can get a pair from
amazon for less than $20. That and a neoprene cap. You can do the swim-cap-sandwich for added affect which is latex cap, neoprene, then race latex cap on the outside. Annoying because it puts a lot of pressure on your head, but keeps you from getting brain freeze.