Responding generally about running - like triathlon and cycling, participation numbers have started to trend down. Overall the numbers in North America for running are much bigger - they dwarfed cycling and triathlon combined.

As usual, it's been slowly recognized by many that the numbers are down.

A good read from the NY Times around the time of the NYC Marathon - https://mobile-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/sports/ny-marathon-running.amp.html

Just like in triathlon (with a focus on IM races), in running, if you only focus on the marquee marathons - NYC, Boston etc . . . you are not seeing the whole picture. The sport looks really healthy, even growing. But ounce you get out into the hinterlands and away from the large marquee races/events, the numbers are flat or down.

Also, a trend WITHIN running that triathlon should pay attention to, there is a serious move to shorter races. If an event offers both a full and a 1/2 marathon, the full marathon numbers are going down, while the 1/2 Marathon numbers are going up! Ditto, when the option is something even shorter like a 10K/5K!!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Yeah, the back story is that the RD has a large slate of events and that series had a very low ROI with a lot of work involved. One of my sons just moved back to Dayton this fall after several years of large event production in LA. He is well connected to the larger running scene across America and knows the RD that used to put those on.

I have a son in St Petersburg that is also in the sports industry. He and my son in Dayton spent a couple weeks in Iten, Kenya last month...good friends with quite a few WC runners. The one in Dayton is setting up some running events in your area for the summer and just launched this page.

https://advancedrunning.com/

There is something I haven't seen mentioned, but I could have missed it. People are getting scared of doing things on the road. They are afraid of being killed by distracted drivers. That goes for runners as well as cyclists. That is a real problem that is not going away.

This. I will NOT ride outside alone. I am now paranoid. I went on maybe 4 rides on my own last year, and on each and every one I had someone come WAAAAY too close at least once. One person even made a point to flip me off after I sat up and threw my arms in the air (country road, NO ONE around).

Then, my wife's cousin was hit on his bike by a drunk driver, at Noon, on a Wednesday!! And he was on the shoulder of the road to boot. Died at the scene. This was out in the country, not busy streets. I wouldn't have thought twice about riding in that area.

Drivers (that aren't cyclists too) fall into 2 categories, either you are a cyclist taking up space on the road and shouldn't be there anyway so are ignored, or they are distracted and do not even know you are there. As a whole we don't do much to help our cause either. Drivers tend to be more careful when there is a group of riders (witnesses) so I seek out charity rides and training groups to get my outdoor fix in.

I just wondered if you've ever remarked on the cause-and-effect relationship operating here.

Ha, ya got me! However, I am just trying to do my part to for help stop negative population growth. In fact, without immigration, the U.S. would be like Europe where the native population is practically imploding as they are so far below replacement level.

"In building its projections, the Census Bureau analyzes four factors – birth rates, death rates, immigration and emigration. Each time the Bureau prepares a substantial update to their projections, they vary their assumptions about each of these components to present a range of possible demographic outcomes.
The Bureau’s latest projection, which assumes, essentially, that current demographic trends will continue, projects that the United States will grow from its current 268 million people to 393 million people in 2050, an increase of 125 million people.1
Immigration emerges as a prominent component in the calculation: 60% of the population increase in the United States between 1994 and 2050 will be attributable to immigration and the descendants of immigrants.2 What this means is that immigration will not be a marginal contributor to future U.S. population growth, but, in fact, the primary one.

 I didn't mean to pick on you. Your two statements next to each other just jumped out at me.

I do wish we had the "problem" of negative population growth though. We all should. The 330-ish million we have here now is absurd. The 7.4 billion people on the planet is billions too many. Everybody worries about high housing prices/high food prices/dwindling salaries/pollution/scarce natural resources/global warming/dwindling forests/species extinction/etc. etc. etc. --- and yet nobody ever seems seem to worry about the root cause. Wars were getting started over this stuff when the population was a fraction of what it is now. Still we keep pushing the limits.

But that's a discussion for another thread. Probably in another forum.

No argument on any point. The net world population growth is coming from the poorest countries. Projections are the world will get up to 9.7B by 2050 and 11B by 2100 ... assuming there is no environmental collapse. Scary.

I can't see it getting there - most of the projections I've seen have Africa as the largest engine of growth. I would imagine that with technology and global markets it will catch up more quickly. Then when everyone has Instagram and Snapchat, they'll be too busy posting photos instead of procreating.

The projections are all based on assumptions. Wherever the standard of living improves, then birth rates decline as having hordes of children is no longer necessary as insurance policy for old age. Projections for a downturn in Africa are hopeful that economic conditions improve by the middle of the century. So 2050 could be an inflection point but is strictly dependent on what happens.

WE just lost a significant Triathlon here in Minnesota, The Buffalo Triathlon was canceled due to sign ups that were running 20% behind last year when they lost money on the event.

on a positive note some indoor tris here in Minneapolis were up in participation over last year.

Anyone else have any indicators for the 2018 season on participation in Triathlon?

Triathlons in Clermont over the weekend with numbers from ChipTimes:

Intimidator HIM - 189 starters in 2018 vs 125 in 2017
Clermont Oly - 261 starters in 2018 vs 201 in 2017

I did get the following notice via e-mail and the explanation is highly plausible:

The Rotary Club of Seven Springs has enjoyed hosting the Longleaf Triathlon for the past 12 years, and we are grateful to the many athletes and sponsors who have supported our event. The continuing growth and development along the bike route poses some difficult challenges moving forward that compromise athlete safety. Sadly, after much deliberation and with athlete safety in mind first and foremost, we have decided to discontinue the Longleaf Triathlon.
If you deferred your registration from 2017 to the 2018 event, please send us an email and we will pay your credit amount toward your entry in either of the following Rotary triathlons:

• Dunedin Rotary Triathlon (May 20, 2018)
• Tarpon Springs Rotary Triathlon & Duathlon (September 8, 2018)

USA Triathlon's Membership height was 2012-2013? About 550k.

I live in Arizona so I can't tell you if it's real growth or not. But most races are pretty slammed unless it's Tri-Family Racing which runs a race every two weeks or so it seems. Those still do have pretty big fields from time to time when it comes to pool Sprints. The biggest pool Sprint I've done was the Mesa Tri...1k people it was insane.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Beats me. Instead of a total number inflated with kids registrations, etc., it would be more insightful if they published the annual memberships by Age Group year to year. Then you could see what's really going on.

I get it, youth are the future. But I really don't like the idea of kids competing in triathlon when they should be playing team sports and socializing. I do wonder how many kids memberships they've sold since that became a thing.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

My 16 year old nephew is giving triathlon a shot this year. He's on the High School swim and cross-country team so it's not mutually exclusive.

With high schoolers who are doing what your nephew is doing I'm all for it. It's the 8 year olds out there when there's soccer and baseball games going on that kind of makes me wonder. Give them all the tools over time, but no pressure. And I've seen 8 year olds do flying mounts and dismounts...

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

As long as they are being active lots all good.

Time for a check in, what has been the attendance in early season races this year compared with the last 5 years.....

What are the Triathlon finisher numbers looking like in your area of the US?


I am really concerned her in Minnesota, We just had a Duathlon that had attracted 350 or so 5 to 6 years back, had 100 finishers in 2017 and just had 85 finishers....it seems participation has cratered and this is despite many races here going away and thinning the herd.......there doesn't seem to be much energy or buzz around triathlons when compared to the past.....Dan said this was the year we would recover.

The jury is still out for our race scene here in Minnesota that is just starting but its not looking good....what are you seeing?

In NC, we have experienced a few events being cut off the schedule. One of our local duathlons is thriving and one (has been USAT LC nationals for a while) was def hurt by not having usat nat's. We are also losing the 70.3 here in Raleigh as IM/city battled it out and people pretty much got bored of doing an race in 89* 90% humidity for the run in june....go figure.

I think we are at the point of sorta leveling off, not huge drop offs, not huge up ticks either.

HS programs in NC are taking off hugely, especially in Charlotte/Triad/Triangle areas. Beyond that Wilm has some pull but not much else.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It is too early to tell. In MN the first duathlon of the season had about the same attendance as the last few years. The duathlon that you mentioned with less than 100 athletes is under new management which could account for fewer athletes. I am optimistic at this point.

To me there isn't really any one reason tri participation is down but lets look at the big reasons that are genuinely hurting the sport.

1) The price. Most people out there can't wrap their minds around how much we spend on entry level gear. Every year it seems more and more entry level gear is DC'd in favor of the latest "super" stuff. Bring back some alloy bikes and maybe a couple sub$100 wet suits and newbs might not be so scared to give it a go.

2) The focus on Ironman. Yeah, I'm super guilty of this. It's probably intimidating to people just getting into the sport. It's hard to get the courage to do your first, especially if you're looking at bike prices, or swims for non-water types. Think back to when you were new there were probably a few things that scared you. We as a community need to be a little less IM and marquis race happy.

3) Really a combo of the previous two. While every triathlon I've ever been to everyone is super polite and super friendly, and triathletes always wave (that's how you tell us apart from roadies), the concept of the sport is not really open to newbies. The high price of equipment and races coupled with the fact that most of us have been obsessed with triathlon for years now makes them basically cannon fodder for thick legged hammer happy athletes that are riding on equipment that out prices their car. Admittedly I am partially guilty of this, at least compared to first timers. I'd suggest moving away from the age group category and going more towards a cat 1-5 system like cycling has. Or at least have more races embrace an award category for 1st timers.

4) I've seen endurance sports seem to do better in down economies. Not much we can do about that except maybe make the experience more and more fun. On that note my first tri was in 2008 during the height of the Great Recession. On the way home I paid $4 a gallon for gas. There were 500 people in a local race, to this day it was the largest local race I've ever been in.

5) Also beyond our control as triathletes but damn America has gotten lazy. Maybe I'm just getting old... But also in 2008 I, and most people I knew, didn't have a smart phone. We need to advocate for our sport more. What we really need is a triathlete that does for triathlon what Lance did for cycling (sans the disgrace). Lets make what seems like a reasonable goal right now. We all get at least 1 person every other year to try a tri (or USAT sponsored event).

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

I think the thing about all this is this....usat and the sport seem to find out that "ironman or bust" is really not a good idea for long term health of a sport. So we get all these new ideas and blah blah but it's not going to turn around in 1 years time. USAT is pushing now getting women into the sport and pushing pool swim events, and I'm not knocking those ideas, I think htey are great...I just think we have to take it more on the chin a bit longer before we see things "turn around". Like we cant go down 1 pathway and suck that pathway until it's dry and then come up with new ideas and think we'll all be good. We wont. We will have to see more races die, we will have to see companies go under, etc. I think that's where we are at *still*. I think we now have to just settle in for the long term and see if these new ideas actually help...but make that decision in 2020 not Oct of 2018 or Feb 2019. Give it some time, because we basically went so far in 1 direction that it's simply going to take time before things come around.

And what's going to be interesting in all of that, is that the "veterans" are going to have to deal with the "newbies" in the sport and the freds and ACCEPT that, not turn their nose at them. So that's where I think we are going to see now. Can the 2 polar opposite groups mesh to bringing the sport up, or will 1 rise while other falls and stuck spinning wheels.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Well we just had Wildflower weekend and over 5k participants in the various events. That is down from its peak over a decade ago, but way ahead of where it has been the past 5 or 6 years(under 2k). It could also just be that the lake level was back and there was the one year cancellation, but I have heard other southern calif races up just a bit too...

Not sure, for curiosity I looked up the last race in the LA Tri series. Around 150 finishers in the olympic event this year versus almost 400 in 2013.