The case for a strong run is when more fast ITU swim bikers age up to long course or she races in the men’s field.

Until then it is what it is. If she was an average swimmer she’d be biking in the train and running sub 3.

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She does, I think she'll be the most well rounded talented women to move up from ITU and her bike is on a whole other level from anyone who's name isn't Spirig!

Races very well in heat is also worth mentioning.

I

You say she is not a strong runner
Money says a 1.20 half runner will eventually figure it out

The reason Anne hang won this year was her swim has improved ( which is kind of crazy given how hard she tried the lastt 10 years and she got more bike miles in.
So montys points are totally valid.

I wouldn't worry too much about Lucy's run speed. She's doing fine. (5km, gravel-path course/race, best time by year - last one three weeks ago in peak IM volume).

First Kona Pro race was two years ago, three Sub-9's and three second place finishes since then and still only 26, after coming into the sport in 2014 with no run background.

Just so I'm hearing you correctly. Monty can use stats to prove she's a strong runner with her 1:20 half time. I can use stats from Kona to also disprove that theory (3:08:09; 3:05:50; 3:05:59). But only monty's points are valid? Is she improving, maybe she is, but it's not reflecting in the actual races. Which is where it counts and is this discussion point. (But as I said, she's going to get better in the run, I'm just not sure what the big deal with saying she's not a "strong runner"....*at this point**).

But if your on the "strong runner" bandwagon too, then you'd suggest it's a case of over biking?

So she needs to only be 2 mins up on the fastest runner(s) in the field and that she's going to go toe to toe with them for 20+ miles? That's what your suggesting?

ETA: But see I just disagree with monty if he says something. I dont make petty ass insults added to the conversation like he does continously in discussions. I've used nothing but stats, just as he does. He's added the pettiness to somehow add to the discussion. I said the 2nd thing "we just agree to disagree" and then he has to add things like you'd probaly coach her to blah blah blah to get her run better, or "your changing your tune". Bull fucking shit I've not changed my tune. i've said from the get go I dont see this run speed that you guys see in races. And mind you I've said her run is going to get better, she's very young and those marathons are going to improve with her ability to just get better with training etc. She's racing girls that are what 5-8 years older than her....She's a "youngin", and if that's the only reason why she's not a strong runner in the marathon...fine. But right now we are talking her tactics and I can't use her being a strong IM runner into the tactics. Maybe in 3 years, but not right now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

agree - that 1:20 half translates to sub-3 marathon in any calculation, except for when you've just bike time-trialed 112 miles solo on a windy day..
and similarly the 5k is a very good indicator of marathon speed, for a marathon runner..

was thinking the same thing as OP though - when you come out of the water in 48 and the nearest competition is 6min back, not really any good options for the bike. Everyone else gets the benefits of the 12m draft zone, plus pacing help, while Lucy is hanging out in the wind driving big watts all day..

Can someone be in the middle of you two? I agree with you that she has not put up "TOP" running times. I think that her run needs more work/experience (and it will come with time), I also feel that if she improves on the bike, she can bike the same time/speed but be fresher, making the ability of a good run a factor.

Getting better on the bike: leaving her fresher (at the same speed she did this year) for the run
Getting better with running: allows for the ability to run it faster (freshness from the bike mattering).

Or maybe I'm just repeating what someone else said, and missed it.

It seems her and Reece have had a very sensible plan for a gradual year over year run progression in order to minimize injury risk (she talked about this a little in her pre-race Breakfast with Bob interview). Not easy to do I imagine, it's a fine line and takes patience and discipline - so far it appears to be paying off. As many have already mentioned she's still young with her best "endurance years: ahead of her, and that combined with her fierce competitiveness and determination bodes well for continual improvement in her run times.

As others have been saying, her formula is fine, she’s just not going to win every year because there are other women just as capable or more.

The only real thing that could benefit her is if someone swam fast enough to bike with her, but I don’t think slowing down to let Haug or Daniela catch her would ever allow her to run as fast as Haug or Daniela. Maybe she can develop the run fitness over time, but currently she needs to be several minutes ahead starting the run to win.

To me its pretty clear she is a race from the front triathlete. She had bad cramps, that could be nutrition or just going to hard, as someone else said, racing the ghost of last year (Daniela). That being said, she should improve her run and as the saying goes you gotta go with the weapons you have. Her weapons are her swim and bike. Her run is steadily improving. The challenge is that Anne could be around to stay, Daniela could rebound and one my favorite women, Laura Philipp is coming (she was injured most of the year). We are of course giving her some natural progression (I understand that) but the women's field is becoming just as deep as the mens. I just hope he isn't perennially second and never wins a title.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

Oh I think we are saying the same thing with her development future. I just differ on the description/ability of her run right now. But again if you say she's a strong runner, then your basically saying she's over biking. But I think the interesting dynamic in all of this is that she's so far ahead of the chase group, she's stuck riding with her nose to the wind the ENTIRE time. So even if she's not actually "over biking" the chase group is getting an drafting advantage. So if you then say "slow down" for her, are you then only inviting an easier deficit for the runners to over come? There's no way she's going to out run them out of T2 even if she's "rested".

So she really has no choice but to go with it. So maturing strength wise will just help her in the future. So that she'll get stronger at holding the same time but being stronger and then running better. And it'll cause the runners to potentially over bike / over run early to catch up.

You saw what the gap did to 2 runners. One ran through LCB and the other was broken trying to chase the gap. That's what having a 9 min lead does....it can cause people to run really scared/stupid to have to catch up. That's why I dont think her dropping the gap by half will help her particular cause. She doesn't want to be closer to T2 against the uber runners. She wants to make them work as much as possible to catch her advantage.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Vaporfly's

Dude - ON WHAT PLANET IS 3:05-3:08 “not a strong run” for WPRO’s at KONA???

You’re making that sound likes she’s pack fodder with those results.
It’s been good enough for 3 runner-up positions.

Yes - there have been a handful of women who have run 2:5x at Kona, but they are the absolute ELITE of IM women’s runners.

She doesn’t need to run like Rinny or Haug to win this tbing.

Her backing off 7 mins on the bike is not going to magically improve her run by 13 minutes.
That’s a HUGE delta - :30 a mile faster!!!
Honestly - You’re kinda embarrassing yourself to try to claim that sorta BS.

It may not even get back those 7 minutes.
But let’s say it did - so??

OK, she ran approx :15/mile faster, which is lovely, but then her overall time is still exactly the same.

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float , hammer , and jog

Dude - ON WHAT PLANET IS 3:05-3:08 “not a strong run” for WPRO’s at KONA???

You’re making that sound likes she’s pack fodder with those results.
It’s been good enough for 3 runner-up positions.

Yes - there have been a handful of women who have run 2:5x at Kona, but they are the absolute ELITE of IM women’s runners.

She doesn’t need to run like Rinny or Haug to win this tbing.

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No I'm making it out to be the 10th best run (go check the run splits) and thus this idea that it's a strength is invalid right now. There were 5 girls that broke 3 hrs on the run (4 in the top 10, 2 on the podium). I agree she doesn't need to run 2:51 to win. But she's not running close to 3hrs yet either. I'm sorry you have a hard time understanding that.

I've never said it's not been good enough. The thread was asked what tactics does she need to play. Nothing in her current ability to me showcases her running as a strength in the current capacity. Thus that to me sugggests she needs to keep the pedal down on the swim/bike while improving her run incrementally (which will likely happen with an young developing athlete that matures). So if you want to talk tactics, let's just be honest with the reality of what each strength and weakness of the athlete is. Nothing more, nothing less. That's all I've done.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Her backing off 7 mins on the bike is not going to magically improve her run by 13 minutes.
That’s a HUGE delta - :30 a mile faster!!!
Honestly - You’re kinda embarrassing yourself to try to claim that sorta BS.

It may not even get back those 7 minutes.
But let’s say it did - so??


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You may also want to get better reading comprehension cus I've never said backing off 7 mins on the bike = 13 min run capability (especially if your going to start making personal embarassing comments, I'd appreciate if you kept that shit out especially if your making claims I didn't say....that's a bit BS in my book). In fact I've said that's fantasy because then in the end she's actually closer to the stud runners from the start of T2 and she doesnt have the current capability to out run them now.

I've not suggested she slow down on the bike to run faster. Not sure how/why you are saying I have. I've suggested she has to use her gap and force the runners to outrun that gap....and that as long as she's riding "within" her ability that she's doing what she has to because she's riding alone vs the group that is allowed to "conserve".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It’s a triathlon.

She’s got THE best swim, and generally top 1-3 bike.

She doesn’t need a whole lot more in the run.

Women breaking 3 at Kona is still somewhat of a rarity.

And basically none of those who do, have Lucy’s swim & bike chops.

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float , hammer , and jog

And I'm still not sure what your disagreeing with me about. Everything you just said I've basically agreed. I've simply said she's not got the run yet...end of story. You somehow really don't like that I said that, but I'm saying that because that's the reality of what she is right now. That's it. I'm sticking to the facts here, nothing else. She doesn't need a whole lot, but that's the point....She's not shown it yet. DING DING DING....my whole point. We good on that?

And you may want to be much more careful with the embarrassing insults when your making claims that i've never said. That's a bit BS in my book, mate.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Brooks-

Chill.

I think ML confused you with ZenTriBrett (sp?)---Who, I think, is the one that suggested backing off 4 minutes on the bike would gain 8 minutes on the run.

Man you guys get wound up.

Clearly....she needs to come on ST and ask for advice!

Not wound up, just dont add personal insults to the discussion (slowman basically deleted a thread on the pro's cus he thought it got too "personal"). If we are sticking to the facts, and both still disagree.....great. And I'm in no way discrediting her run potential or ability. I'm being very straight forward as a coach that I wouldn't consider her run as a strength in Kona. I would be very very worried if she came out of T2 with anything less than a 5 min advantage by "easing" on the bike. But this also is going to evolve, it's just going to take time, and as I said she's got likely 10+ more years to get it right. I've also said that she's also likely to always have to go up against that "uber runner" and that she's likely going to win on those odd "tough" years where it's so windy it truly is a solo effort kinda day. But those are more rare than the traditional, "fastest runner" wins.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

(Not at you, just using your quote)

Cramps all over is from electrolyte problems or dehydration. Cramps in specific muscles is from going harder than your current capabilities. Lucy said she had leg cramps shortly after starting the run = she went too hard on the bike. Plain and simple.

Based on that factual evidence, she's actually not a 9 minute faster into T2 biker than everybody else. Leg cramps on run = she biked too hard. She's biking harder than her abilities. Like I said, back off the bike and she'll run a lot faster. She ran a 3:08 with leg cramps nearly the entire way. Imagine what she'd do without that problem. Most people would run a marathon 15 minutes faster if they didn't have leg cramps nearly the entire way.

she biked too hard. She's biking harder than her abilities. //

Well ya, she said as much in her post race interview, said they were taking a chance. Have to remember, she was racing the ghost of Ryf at the time. 4 years in a row, seemed like she was a machine that just couldn't break. Daniela is a great runner, but dont think Lucy was planning on having to beat a 2;51 that day, and having a 10 minute lead might do the trick. That was one of those lines you cross that you just dont know how it will go, until you cross it, and get the actual outcome. Cant even remember how many times I crossed it, and had a great result. But most the time you dont, but those few magical days and times, well it keeps you knocking on that door. Especially when you feel you are going to need magic to win the day.

Great point, and why she's such an admirable racer.

Here's what I'll ask you.

Do you think she's at 2:51 run speed, which is only ~7 mins behind Frodo who's been run training for 25+ more years than Lucy Charles has. You think this athlete who's just started run training what 6 years prior has the kona run record in her legs, but she's not activated it because she's overbiked?


Secondly, if she "rests" her legs by sitting in the group, do you see her out running Haug or Ryf? That's the reality, if you want her to sit up and rest her legs and not over bike, she now has MORE MILES to run at a faster pace, than she does if she tries to "hold on" + potentially top runners bonking in effort to catch her.


Keep in mind she had a 9 min lead. That's really really difficult to overcome. Only 1 athlete was able to do that, the other runner did and then she didn't when she "died" from having to chase her so much. In the "save the legs" theory, she now is having to run toe to toe with those runners from basically T2. For a newish runner and not truly developed IM run, that's super big ask.



If you look at Frodo, there's only 1 guy who can basically out run him- Lange. So any person who comes in with Frodo in T2, their race is now over for the win. Let alone coming from behind him. It's done.


So if you can tell me Lucy Charles can out run every other person from the get go by resting her legs, I'll buy that strategy your pushing. I dont see it, and I dont know of many coaches would see it. It may be the best result to get the best time, but it wont get the top step, and yes those can be 2 completely different end results. And right now she's at a point where it's basically going for the win every race now. Not racing for best race necessarily.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

 Brooks - I apologize.

I think I conflated your comments w/ the Zen guys.

And I agree - no reasonable amount of “resting her legs” is going to get her a 2:5x Kona run - at this point I her career, at least.

And the net math to do so, even if possible, probably doesn’t get her across the line any faster.


Anyway - that seems to be my signal to call this season quits.

See y’all in the Spring!

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float , hammer , and jog