Not a strong runner? LOL! At the grand final in Lausanne she had the 2nd fastest run split, only 6 seconds slower than the winner Katie Zaferes.

She certainly toughs it out - but she doesn't have that effortless glide that a lot of the other girls do

Lucy doesn't need to do anything but just get a little older and gain experience. With more training layered on top of what she already has she will win Kona one day.

Lucy has what it takes to win Kona. She just needs to fine tune her race plan, up her run speed a bit and she will have it. She is young, talented and motivated. She will get there with patience and planning.

I think that gets put to rest this year, no? Lange looked like the loneliest guy on the bike course until he dropped out.

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Im not sure she needs to do anything else different strategically. She raced her strengths and lost. It happens. She will continue to get faster on bike and run which may get her over the hump. With the race she had today, she very well may win other years. Or, she can overthink it to death, totally change race strategy and possibly end up in the same spot or much worse.

Learmonth run has improved a lot in the last year, it's only going to get better next year, I'm guessing Learmonth could probably keep on Lucy's toes, by the time all the front pack swimmer lot I mentioned get into LC get used to the distance I'm sure they'll all be out running Lucy, all the elite ITU women who have moved up are (although coming back from much further)

If Zaferes and Duffy decide to come up and adapt well to the distance they could take things to a whole new level.

Would love to see what Duffy could do in IM, I was a bit gutted that Jorgensen "retired" after Rio - I'm hoping that she scratches that marathon itch in Toyko and then makes a return to tri.

Sit in on the bike course so she bikes for show and runs for the dough. Haug just held a masterclass on it.

Lucy is also only 26. If she can remain injury-free I think her run endurance will still progress and she could win wire-to-wire in a year or two.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Or Haug is just a better runner. There is no guarantee that taking it a little easier on the bike would allow her to outrun Haug.

True. But I think Brownlee's performance shows exactly what happens when you overbike the course.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

She would have been fine if it was anyone but Anne Haug chasing her on the run. With the rough swim conditions she did well with her strategy of putting as much time in front as possible. She just got chased down by a phenomenal runner.

But there's likely always to be a strong runner. If it's not Haug, it was Ryf before. She's just gotta keep building up her run, cus it's still not even close to "holding on". She's still getting passed with what 10 miles to go, and every time they are putting pretty good gaps into her by the finish. Although this was the 1st year it was inside of 10 mins (4 min improvement to only losing by 6:30).

BUT to her credit she had something left in the end to repass for 2nd. So I think she's just imo going to have to be happy with the off chance it's "tough" conditions and her bike can hold on. And she's young, hell she's got 10+ chances to figure this out likely unless she just goes off and starts having a family (always a chance). But she's going to get better, but she's always going to be fighting a "strong runner".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Random thoughts:

Can she win it?

Yes. If an athlete can podium then I think they CAN win. What would she need? I’d start with the right race in the right year. We could call that luck or we could call that preparation meeting opportunity.

Prior to this year we could ask what Haug would need to win it and there would be a list of improvements to make and many of us would say that with Ryf in the field she has almost no shot. But she did the right race in the right year. (Congrats again to AC_triwarrior for winning the Fantasy Kona by picking Haug and Crowley, so at least someone can say this was foreseeable).

I think the WORST thing to do would be to spend more energy to eek out a few more seconds or a minute in the swim.

Maybe the answer is as simple as; replicate this race over several years and in some years it will be a winner.

I think it's very difficult to figure out with your plan because your math doesn't add up. She would still be caught with nearly 8 miles to go.


And I find your "saving 4 mins gets you 8 on the run" for one of the slower top 10 runners in the sport sorta made up.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She is fine as she is.........she is only 26. Endurance athletes don't peak on avg until their 30's. Give her some time to grow and she could be one of the best ever. Time will tell.

Maybe the answer is as simple as; replicate this race over several years and in some years it will be a winner.

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That's the real winner. Triathlons are rarely ever won by the uber S-B combo. They just aren't, because most of the time those athletes simply can't run well enough. Hell even Ryf is a "runner" comparatively to the competition so you can't point to her as a strong biker who "holds on". And so when those S/B'ers win, it's "tough" conditions that allow them to win, it cooks the chase group runners and they can't run well in those particular years. (It's also why it's very rarely the case where the solo off the front biker ever "holds on" to win)


So I'd say she needs to be the queen of being the bridesmaid and happy to collect likely 1-2 wins. Because imo there's always going to be the next generation runner who can run through the field, etc. And imo it's very very hard to become a "runner" when your not really one to begin with. So then you just take advantage of your strengths especially on tough days and you accept that your 2nd is pretty damn good too.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Run faster

Her tactics were fine for her this year, anyone ever consider she just wasnt supposed to win, and the best athlete on the day did? Of course her run has gotten a lot better, but taking a chance on the bike put her back to her old time. She can run sub 3 hour, but it has to be of a proper paced ride. So what she really needs to do is to prepare a bit better for that ride. Look at all the injured runners who swam and rode a lot more, pull out great runs, even though they were not run prepared in their minds.

Of course Lucy doesnt have the run history or mileage of those folks, (1st woman, 2nd man) but her speed is there and I believe her legs have good memory built in. Its hard on an athlete when they know they can run fast, but can't because of the bike. That is where she needs extra focus, and the other two events she is doing fine. Still improving incrementally on the run because she can, but figuring out how to ride that same exact same pace at 10 less heart beats..

It was a pretty spectacular run she was up against, the 2nd best ever by just seconds. She is not going to beat that run, probably ever. So she is on the right track doing what she is doing, remember she gets 2nd usually because of her swim, so will always have to press that advantage. Make the others chase, that was probably the one reason she was to retake 2nd, something that almost never happens that late at Kona. Body blows that go unnoticed throughout the day, coming back late to pay dividends.

And Lauren is no help what so ever, sitting on her feet is a drag, physically and mentally, and even if she knew how to find her bag, would just sit behind her on the bike anyway. She needs a Flora Duffy to come across, but even then maybe they dont swim with her. She is fine off the front, disrupts the groups behind when they all have to drill it in the swim, and as someone else pointed out, they have a hard time riding smooth in those situations. Lots of blow ups from that pack ride of the women, exactly what she wants to happen..

Yes, this.

But also - LOSE the hyphenated last name.
Charles-Barclay is TURRIBLE.

I was trying to think of worse combinations of guys she could have potentially married:

Lucy Charles de Gaulle
Lucy Charles Incharge
Lucy Charles Manson
Lucy Charles Bronson
Lucy Charles Darwin
Lucy Charles Nelson Reilly

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float , hammer , and jog

I dont think her run speed is there, nor has ever been there. Doesn't mean she can't get better, but I dont think she's got the run legs and is being hurt by her "strong bike".

If it was there, then she's riding with the complete wrong plan......But I think she's riding with the plan that includes realizing she's the 8th best runner every year out of the top 10.

Thus she'll win when it's savage conditions they always talk about, and rest of the years likely lose to the top super runner. If you notice the harshest conditions of the 3 years she finished the closest to the front. Because at some point you are what you are. You can improve it, but at the same time you always must recognize that others around will improve as well. It's not a static thing with her only improving while the others don't.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She can only play the cards she’s been dealt.
Which happen to be:
The best swim in the business.
A really strong bike.
Fairly solid run.

She’s still young and has plenty of time to keep working on her run.
If she’s ‘only’ the “8th best runner out of the Top Ten in the WORLD” at this event, then she’s not exactly chopped liver on foot.

She’s kinda like the “female Björn” -
And like him, no amount of backing off the bike is going to make up for some of the other athletes just being superior runners.

Meanwhile, Haug is like Rinny, only with much better S&B.
That’s pretty damn hard to beat.

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float , hammer , and jog

Exactly so accept that you'll finish on the podium 7 times in this race and maybe win it 2 times at best when it's one of those "epic" days. And that's one hell of a career accomplishment. I just think her run is such a limiter that she's basically only going to win when the runners have suffered too much on the bike. And that's not most years in Kona in a world class field.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I would also push back on her “fairly strong” run. I don’t think that’s the case at all compared to others who are racing for 1st.

A fairly strong run would change her whole race plan as it would force the Uber runners to die trying to catch her.

That’s not a knock, that’s what I see. I see a strong S/B that “holds on” with the run. I also see races being always won on the run except for tough conditions. So the reality is there’s likely as good of a chance as there always being a strong runner to rub her down as there is to unleashing a better run.

I just don’t see a strong run that you guys see.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I just don’t see a strong run that you guys see. //

I know it just happened a little over a month ago, but it was a pretty big race. Within a minute and a half of the best triathlete ever in the womens division, and just about 2 minutes off the very best in contention. 1;20 flat in a legit 1/2 race is pretty world class for women, and certainly if it is within 2 minutes of the uber runners, probably is evened out by her swim off the front. She just didnt have that run this week because of the bike, not because of run fitness. That kind of 1/2 run is sub 3 hours all day for someone of her ability, provided she gets off the bike in the right condition.


What time do you need to see for a strong run from her? Keeping in mind she doesnt have to run the fastest split, her race is unique to all the other ladies..

https://www.ironman.com/...p;loc=#axzz62FUdGpsj