I would use an early season race to try out the following: draft the swim no matter how slow it is, sit in the bike pack for 100 miles then hit T2 like her hair's on fire and see how it goes.

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"They know f_ck-all over at Slowtwitch"
- Lionel Sanders

It’s always surprises me how alone she is out there. The top women are finishing in the men’s pro field, isn’t there anyone she can latch onto? (god how I wish they could competently televise this race)

Who knows, if Lauren Brandon hadn’t had a mechanical early, maybe she has a different race. F

The answer, of course, though is that she gave up 15 minutes on the run. You can’t give up 15 minutes on the run and win.

I have this instinct to think of her failure to break through with three straight runner up finishes as some tragic tale. It’s not. She’s 26. Chrissie Wellington won her first at 30. Daniela at 28. She’s so far ahead of the game. It’s hard to win the way she’s racing, but she’s the only one in the world who can do it.

 

Lauren Brandon can swim with her!

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Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Yes she needs to team up with Lauren Brandon. It is in both the interest of Lauren and Lucy to share the load even if it means, Lucy has to dial it back a little bit. Going it alone is incredibly taxing mentally.

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Most of Lucy's wins have been wire to wire so unlikely she'll see as a useful thing to do since she has done several times and won.

she's always talling about how she likes being up front so unlikely she'll do any type "team dynamics" specially with Lauren who isn't at the same biking level just my .02

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Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Improve her marathon time until then she needs to bury the field as much as possible. If Annie Haug had a bad day Lucy wins the thing. In a non drafting event what advantage is there to being in a pack.

tough one. I think she needs to do as frodo does and work with the top riders, and use that saved energy to blast the back end of the bike and run. The trick is the Haug who won it this year by crushing the run... you need to be confident in your run to keep her at bay.

Unfortunately for Lucy, because of her unique gifts she only does one race per year.

It’s hard to get better at strategy when you only race once.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

It's not that difficult to figure out. Lucy went too hard on the bike. She just needs to dial it back a bit and save some energy for the run.

If she went 4 minutes slower on the bike, that's an entire bike ride of fueling and hydrating better for the run and also taking the edge off the bike damage to her running legs. Then she'd run about 8 minutes faster, putting her at the finish line about the same time as Haug.

A good rule of thumb is if you're smashing people on the swim or bike at Kona, you're going to get passed on the run. Sure, she can do it at some regular ironmans, but the competition is too good and there's too many people showboating to risk that at Worlds.

yeah she said on IG she rolled the dice (rode hard) and lost. She didn't really have much choice with some much stronger runners in the field. I think that plan can pay off, but she needs to find some slower male pros to ride with.

She still loses to Anne Haug by 2.5’ in your scenario...

Brandon followed her feet the entire swim.

Then still came out of there water wobblier, missed her bag, etc. I was hoping, but Brandon seemed off even after following the feet.

Duh. Run faster

Once ? I make it 3 IM and 3 70.3 this year

You think Lucy has only raced once this year? Really?

Do the multiple 70.3's not count (including Nice)? Or being 1st this year at Ironman South Africa and Roth?

They don’t count.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Maybe some of these front pack ITU swimmers will move up after Tokyo, Zafares, Coldwell, Duffy, Learmonth, if they can't keep up with her in the swim they'll catch her on the bike.

She comes out of the water between the men, maybe she can go Sanders style and pay a guy to bike behind for a good part :D

It's really a shame that being such a good swimmer can be a disadvantage

Analysing the womens race over the years it usually hasn't been an advantage to be in the main pack - they ride like maniacs trying to put the hurt on. Xena shared power data once and it was crazy for the first two hours.

The winners, as a generalisation, for the last decade have ridden their own race behind or ahead of the pack and thus been a lot more consistent in their pacing.
LCB just needs to work out the effort level on the bike that keeps her ahead of the pack without cooking herself and to keep improving her bike and run. She needn't panic.

And next years race dynamic will be different, which may aid her.

And by Sanders you mean Patrick Lange?

---

What's your CdA?

I reckon Lucy was racing the ghost of last year's Daniela. If someone had told her Daniela's not in contention she would have been more conservative. I love the way both of them race. How can you not respect athletes that put it all out there. Both prepared to blow up to get the win. How lucky are we to watch this stuff.

So what does count

Learmonth could be interesting in IM - very good swimmer and a powerful bike rider. Not a strong runner unfortunately, so she could end up being Lucy's domestique...

Not a strong runner? LOL! At the grand final in Lausanne she had the 2nd fastest run split, only 6 seconds slower than the winner Katie Zaferes.

She certainly toughs it out - but she doesn't have that effortless glide that a lot of the other girls do

Lucy doesn't need to do anything but just get a little older and gain experience. With more training layered on top of what she already has she will win Kona one day.

Lucy has what it takes to win Kona. She just needs to fine tune her race plan, up her run speed a bit and she will have it. She is young, talented and motivated. She will get there with patience and planning.

I think that gets put to rest this year, no? Lange looked like the loneliest guy on the bike course until he dropped out.

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***

Im not sure she needs to do anything else different strategically. She raced her strengths and lost. It happens. She will continue to get faster on bike and run which may get her over the hump. With the race she had today, she very well may win other years. Or, she can overthink it to death, totally change race strategy and possibly end up in the same spot or much worse.

Learmonth run has improved a lot in the last year, it's only going to get better next year, I'm guessing Learmonth could probably keep on Lucy's toes, by the time all the front pack swimmer lot I mentioned get into LC get used to the distance I'm sure they'll all be out running Lucy, all the elite ITU women who have moved up are (although coming back from much further)

If Zaferes and Duffy decide to come up and adapt well to the distance they could take things to a whole new level.

Would love to see what Duffy could do in IM, I was a bit gutted that Jorgensen "retired" after Rio - I'm hoping that she scratches that marathon itch in Toyko and then makes a return to tri.

Sit in on the bike course so she bikes for show and runs for the dough. Haug just held a masterclass on it.

Lucy is also only 26. If she can remain injury-free I think her run endurance will still progress and she could win wire-to-wire in a year or two.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Or Haug is just a better runner. There is no guarantee that taking it a little easier on the bike would allow her to outrun Haug.

True. But I think Brownlee's performance shows exactly what happens when you overbike the course.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

She would have been fine if it was anyone but Anne Haug chasing her on the run. With the rough swim conditions she did well with her strategy of putting as much time in front as possible. She just got chased down by a phenomenal runner.

But there's likely always to be a strong runner. If it's not Haug, it was Ryf before. She's just gotta keep building up her run, cus it's still not even close to "holding on". She's still getting passed with what 10 miles to go, and every time they are putting pretty good gaps into her by the finish. Although this was the 1st year it was inside of 10 mins (4 min improvement to only losing by 6:30).

BUT to her credit she had something left in the end to repass for 2nd. So I think she's just imo going to have to be happy with the off chance it's "tough" conditions and her bike can hold on. And she's young, hell she's got 10+ chances to figure this out likely unless she just goes off and starts having a family (always a chance). But she's going to get better, but she's always going to be fighting a "strong runner".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Random thoughts:

Can she win it?

Yes. If an athlete can podium then I think they CAN win. What would she need? I’d start with the right race in the right year. We could call that luck or we could call that preparation meeting opportunity.

Prior to this year we could ask what Haug would need to win it and there would be a list of improvements to make and many of us would say that with Ryf in the field she has almost no shot. But she did the right race in the right year. (Congrats again to AC_triwarrior for winning the Fantasy Kona by picking Haug and Crowley, so at least someone can say this was foreseeable).

I think the WORST thing to do would be to spend more energy to eek out a few more seconds or a minute in the swim.

Maybe the answer is as simple as; replicate this race over several years and in some years it will be a winner.

I think it's very difficult to figure out with your plan because your math doesn't add up. She would still be caught with nearly 8 miles to go.


And I find your "saving 4 mins gets you 8 on the run" for one of the slower top 10 runners in the sport sorta made up.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She is fine as she is.........she is only 26. Endurance athletes don't peak on avg until their 30's. Give her some time to grow and she could be one of the best ever. Time will tell.

Maybe the answer is as simple as; replicate this race over several years and in some years it will be a winner.

----------

That's the real winner. Triathlons are rarely ever won by the uber S-B combo. They just aren't, because most of the time those athletes simply can't run well enough. Hell even Ryf is a "runner" comparatively to the competition so you can't point to her as a strong biker who "holds on". And so when those S/B'ers win, it's "tough" conditions that allow them to win, it cooks the chase group runners and they can't run well in those particular years. (It's also why it's very rarely the case where the solo off the front biker ever "holds on" to win)


So I'd say she needs to be the queen of being the bridesmaid and happy to collect likely 1-2 wins. Because imo there's always going to be the next generation runner who can run through the field, etc. And imo it's very very hard to become a "runner" when your not really one to begin with. So then you just take advantage of your strengths especially on tough days and you accept that your 2nd is pretty damn good too.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Run faster

Her tactics were fine for her this year, anyone ever consider she just wasnt supposed to win, and the best athlete on the day did? Of course her run has gotten a lot better, but taking a chance on the bike put her back to her old time. She can run sub 3 hour, but it has to be of a proper paced ride. So what she really needs to do is to prepare a bit better for that ride. Look at all the injured runners who swam and rode a lot more, pull out great runs, even though they were not run prepared in their minds.

Of course Lucy doesnt have the run history or mileage of those folks, (1st woman, 2nd man) but her speed is there and I believe her legs have good memory built in. Its hard on an athlete when they know they can run fast, but can't because of the bike. That is where she needs extra focus, and the other two events she is doing fine. Still improving incrementally on the run because she can, but figuring out how to ride that same exact same pace at 10 less heart beats..

It was a pretty spectacular run she was up against, the 2nd best ever by just seconds. She is not going to beat that run, probably ever. So she is on the right track doing what she is doing, remember she gets 2nd usually because of her swim, so will always have to press that advantage. Make the others chase, that was probably the one reason she was to retake 2nd, something that almost never happens that late at Kona. Body blows that go unnoticed throughout the day, coming back late to pay dividends.

And Lauren is no help what so ever, sitting on her feet is a drag, physically and mentally, and even if she knew how to find her bag, would just sit behind her on the bike anyway. She needs a Flora Duffy to come across, but even then maybe they dont swim with her. She is fine off the front, disrupts the groups behind when they all have to drill it in the swim, and as someone else pointed out, they have a hard time riding smooth in those situations. Lots of blow ups from that pack ride of the women, exactly what she wants to happen..

Yes, this.

But also - LOSE the hyphenated last name.
Charles-Barclay is TURRIBLE.

I was trying to think of worse combinations of guys she could have potentially married:

Lucy Charles de Gaulle
Lucy Charles Incharge
Lucy Charles Manson
Lucy Charles Bronson
Lucy Charles Darwin
Lucy Charles Nelson Reilly

---

float , hammer , and jog

I dont think her run speed is there, nor has ever been there. Doesn't mean she can't get better, but I dont think she's got the run legs and is being hurt by her "strong bike".

If it was there, then she's riding with the complete wrong plan......But I think she's riding with the plan that includes realizing she's the 8th best runner every year out of the top 10.

Thus she'll win when it's savage conditions they always talk about, and rest of the years likely lose to the top super runner. If you notice the harshest conditions of the 3 years she finished the closest to the front. Because at some point you are what you are. You can improve it, but at the same time you always must recognize that others around will improve as well. It's not a static thing with her only improving while the others don't.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

She can only play the cards she’s been dealt.
Which happen to be:
The best swim in the business.
A really strong bike.
Fairly solid run.

She’s still young and has plenty of time to keep working on her run.
If she’s ‘only’ the “8th best runner out of the Top Ten in the WORLD” at this event, then she’s not exactly chopped liver on foot.

She’s kinda like the “female Björn” -
And like him, no amount of backing off the bike is going to make up for some of the other athletes just being superior runners.

Meanwhile, Haug is like Rinny, only with much better S&B.
That’s pretty damn hard to beat.

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float , hammer , and jog

Exactly so accept that you'll finish on the podium 7 times in this race and maybe win it 2 times at best when it's one of those "epic" days. And that's one hell of a career accomplishment. I just think her run is such a limiter that she's basically only going to win when the runners have suffered too much on the bike. And that's not most years in Kona in a world class field.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I would also push back on her “fairly strong” run. I don’t think that’s the case at all compared to others who are racing for 1st.

A fairly strong run would change her whole race plan as it would force the Uber runners to die trying to catch her.

That’s not a knock, that’s what I see. I see a strong S/B that “holds on” with the run. I also see races being always won on the run except for tough conditions. So the reality is there’s likely as good of a chance as there always being a strong runner to rub her down as there is to unleashing a better run.

I just don’t see a strong run that you guys see.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I just don’t see a strong run that you guys see. //

I know it just happened a little over a month ago, but it was a pretty big race. Within a minute and a half of the best triathlete ever in the womens division, and just about 2 minutes off the very best in contention. 1;20 flat in a legit 1/2 race is pretty world class for women, and certainly if it is within 2 minutes of the uber runners, probably is evened out by her swim off the front. She just didnt have that run this week because of the bike, not because of run fitness. That kind of 1/2 run is sub 3 hours all day for someone of her ability, provided she gets off the bike in the right condition.


What time do you need to see for a strong run from her? Keeping in mind she doesnt have to run the fastest split, her race is unique to all the other ladies..

https://www.ironman.com/...p;loc=#axzz62FUdGpsj

So your using a 1/2 split when we are talking an IM in Kona. If that’s the case for a strong run?

Well just agree to disagree and I’ll keep it to IM distance races and her own splits in this race to showcase its not that strong relative in Kona.


And that she needs as much ground out of T2 within reasonable effort not less time. She needs to force the runners to break themselves trying to catch her not give them even shorter ground out of T2. IE- how she actually got 2nd, she repassed because it broke the other girl to catch her and she couldn’t hold on, even though she out ran her by 9 mins.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Ummm, I think you have that wrong. Lucy would be Learmouth's domestique.

But either way they would probably 1-2 quite a few IM races together.

So your using a 1/2 split when we are talking an IM in Kona. If that’s the case for a strong run? //

Yes I am. And if she ran a 33+ stand alone 10k, I would also use that as an indication that her running has improved, or a 16 low 5k too. Running is running, if you are able to run a particular pace up to 13 miles, then it is no stretch to push that gain out to a marathon. And since she has some low 3 hour marathons already in the bank before these latest improvements, even less a stretch to assume her marathon should not also be faster. I dont understand why you dont see that? I guess if you were her coach, you would have her running a bunch of stand alone marathons for her training.


The rest of the triathlon world runs shorter races(like 1/2 marathon), knowing that they are a great indication of running improvement, and a hell of a lot less stress and damage done in the process of training for ironmans. It is not like this is her first race, she has a history and it indicates that she could be a very good off the bike runner, right now.

there's only one thing she can do - she needs to BELIEVE she can win (jump to 2:00):
https://youtu.be/x0cz_YhNmvM?t=121
</pink>

I agree with your statement about giving 4 minutes on the bike to get 8 minutes on the run. That is just voodoo nonsense.

But I think Lucy is a fairly strong runner. Based on that rough patch she went through that run was on the low end of what she can do. So to win the race:

Swim like 2019
Bike like 2019
Run like 2019 without that rough patch

Do that 3 times and you will win once or twice.

I think it really is this simple. There was nothing Lucy could have done this year. She lost by six+ minutes. A few minutes slower on the swim or bike wasn't going to translate into a marathon fast enough to win. Haug just ran a spectacular marathon and deserves enormous credit. If Lucy keeps replicating this performance and gets just a bit faster on the run, she'll win one or more. The hard part is replicating this race. Even though she lost, it was an amazing performance and effort. To hold the lead alone for that long, drop to third, and then muster the will to fight back is really impressive.

This.

She said prerace that her run is getting better and takes time to do it injury free.
Tactics will not have affected her race much. She is learning to be a better runner. She is not there yet.
Second is excellent for her now!

How many marathons are lost on tactics compared to talent on the day. You are over thinking this.

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Team Zoot So Cal

Where have I said I don’t understand that.

I’ve pointed to her likely run improvement.

I’ve just also said that at IM she’s going to always be having to deal with the uber runners and that right now she isn’t strong enough to come out of T2 closer to those runners.

So I’ll be shocked if she runs sub 3 in Kona within 3 years. And that in her case she needs to force the runners to have a gap that they break to run down while not “over biking”. It worked against crawley didn’t work against haug.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

IfI were her coach I wouldn’t describe her as a “strong runner” especially at the IM distance in Kona that is specific to this race tactic and discussion.

ETA: I also wouldn’t change a tactic and I would keep the strengths she has while limiting her run lose + improving it. It’s also why I said she’s likely to be far more a braidsmaid than winning this event, especially as there is always a new Uber runner in IM.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Her run has improved and I think can continue to improve with proper coaching.

MadTownTRI wrote:

She still loses to Anne Haug by 2.5’ in your scenario...

1. Anne Haug (DEU): 8:40:10 (54:09; 4:50:18; 2:51:06)
2. Lucy Charles (GBR): 8:46:44 (48:13; 4:47:21; 3:06:00)

Correct. If Lucy goes even slower on the bike than what I original said, which lets her go faster on the run, she'd definitely win.


Here are their times without transitions. If Lucy went 7 minutes slower on the bike (and just imagine how much more rested she'd be) and then ran a 2:52 marathon, she'd have won by a full minute. And that's still running the marathon one minute slower than Anne Hague.


______Anne - LCB - LCB champ
Swim 0:54:09 - 0:48:13 - 0:48:13
_Bike 4:50:18 - 4:47:21 - 4:54:21
_Run 2:51:06 - 3:06:00 - 2:52:00
Total 8:35:33 - 8:41:34 - 8:34:34

The problem is that she needs to be able to run a 2:52 marathon. Sounds difficult, but maybe could do it if she backed off the bike by 7 minutes. That's a lot of energy in the bank. Coming off the bike 2 minutes ahead of the competition instead of 9.

Yes it can and will improve but at what cost. That’s the fun part in this. It’s also why Kona is almost always won by the strongest runner or one of strongest runs. She’s was 8th out of the top 10. There’s enough validation to say that’s not considered a “strong run”. I didnt figure it was that complicated or argumentative.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

No argument or confusion on my part. My point is that she is very young to be at the pointy end of the sport already. With some continued run improvement/bike strategy she can win Kona or any other race for that matter.

But now you have moved the goalposts on what you were saying before, focusing only on the medicore run she had this past week. Yes you and I and evreryone els can agree "THAT" particular run was not that strong. But this is what you said, and what myself and most others have been arguing with you about;

"I dont think her run speed is there, nor has ever been there"..

So seems like you are backing off on that statement a bit, and focusing on one bad run to base your argument on now?

I'm just amused that since apparently this forum isn't allowed to fix Lionel anymore, it now has to fix Lucy. :)

Yes I’m focusing entirely on how she runs in Kona (in 3 years racing pro she has gone 3:08 to 3:05) I’ve yet to see her have the run pedigree to back up even a 3hr run and win with regards to the tactics that it’ll take to win.

Or better yet then your suggesting she’s racing with the wrong tactics if your saying she’s a strong runner. Strong runners don’t need to ride off the front and gain a 9 min advantage.

Are you saying she should only come out 5 mins ahead to the Uber runners since she has the strong run?

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Ha your starting to sound like the fantasy football owner that is down 60 pts with only 1 game left and 1 wr left....”sure he can catch 5 td passes” and over come that gap.

2 min advantage with her run pedigree would not equal a 2:52 nor even close to that by “resting 7 mins” on the bike. That’s just not how it works but if you can show real world data I’d love to see that. And only having a 2 min gap against Uber runners would mean she has to run with them for likely 20-22 miles. That’s not normally how you beat a Uber runner when you yourself haven’t shown that ability.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I said very early in this thread what I thought she should focus on, just like you did, based on your statement that you dont see any run improvement at all. Only I will stand by my comments, and not keep moving them around like you seem to be doing.

To reiterate what I said before, she needs to get stronger on the bike to hold the pace of this year, and make incremental gains in her run, as it is apparent she has quite a bit of talent there based on this years improvements(which I guess you dont see, we will just have to disagree there). Her most important thing now is to be able to do her best run off that ride she did, and that comes with focus on the ride, not the run...

Unfortunately for her only Kona. Maybe Nice. She’s so good that everything else is just a catered workout or parade. She’s suffering from the women’s field being a few years behind the men’s field. Maybe when some fast women drop down to long course racing she’ll have some company at the front and put more of a gap between herself and the likes of Haug and Ryf.

E

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Monty I’ve not once veered from my comments so stop with the stupid ass rebuttals. I’ve said she’s no where close to being a strong runner and I don’t see it yet at Kona. Want to disagree, great but stop with adding the pettiness to somehow make me look bad. I’ve said she’s not a strong runner and I don’t think I’ve differed. I don’t care what she can do at the half, I care what she can do to put it all together at the IM distance. It all matters but at the end of the day what matters is what you do in races and so far she’s not able to take that 1/2 strength to the IM. Thus when I look at an athlete like her I’m most certainly not calling her a “strong runner” in the IM game. If you want to, cool, or your basing on 10k or half splits go ahead.

But I’ve not changed my tune. She ain’t a strong runner in IM and that’s the point of this discussion is it not? I’ve said she’ll get better and I also said she’ll likely run up against Uber runners probaly 3 different ones over the next 10 years. Ashley Gentle would be one too look after imo going LC (prob 5-7 from Kona though).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If she is not burning matches on the swim or bike, why should she slow down just so she is not alone out there? Makes no sense unless she can win a foot race, which right now she can't. That might be a good strategy someday, but not now.

She is young and will win multiple Championships some day. She is nowhere near her peak. She has to work on her run speed. Simple as that.

She needs the no-draft zone extending to 25m so the other women have to work as hard on the bike as she does.

THIS ^ coupled with a 2:55 marathon, she'll do it in time, she's young.

Duffy has some crazy potential at longer distance. I can see her moving up and immediately being a contender.

The case for a strong run is when more fast ITU swim bikers age up to long course or she races in the men’s field.

Until then it is what it is. If she was an average swimmer she’d be biking in the train and running sub 3.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

She does, I think she'll be the most well rounded talented women to move up from ITU and her bike is on a whole other level from anyone who's name isn't Spirig!

Races very well in heat is also worth mentioning.

I

You say she is not a strong runner
Money says a 1.20 half runner will eventually figure it out

The reason Anne hang won this year was her swim has improved ( which is kind of crazy given how hard she tried the lastt 10 years and she got more bike miles in.
So montys points are totally valid.

I wouldn't worry too much about Lucy's run speed. She's doing fine. (5km, gravel-path course/race, best time by year - last one three weeks ago in peak IM volume).

First Kona Pro race was two years ago, three Sub-9's and three second place finishes since then and still only 26, after coming into the sport in 2014 with no run background.

Just so I'm hearing you correctly. Monty can use stats to prove she's a strong runner with her 1:20 half time. I can use stats from Kona to also disprove that theory (3:08:09; 3:05:50; 3:05:59). But only monty's points are valid? Is she improving, maybe she is, but it's not reflecting in the actual races. Which is where it counts and is this discussion point. (But as I said, she's going to get better in the run, I'm just not sure what the big deal with saying she's not a "strong runner"....*at this point**).

But if your on the "strong runner" bandwagon too, then you'd suggest it's a case of over biking?

So she needs to only be 2 mins up on the fastest runner(s) in the field and that she's going to go toe to toe with them for 20+ miles? That's what your suggesting?

ETA: But see I just disagree with monty if he says something. I dont make petty ass insults added to the conversation like he does continously in discussions. I've used nothing but stats, just as he does. He's added the pettiness to somehow add to the discussion. I said the 2nd thing "we just agree to disagree" and then he has to add things like you'd probaly coach her to blah blah blah to get her run better, or "your changing your tune". Bull fucking shit I've not changed my tune. i've said from the get go I dont see this run speed that you guys see in races. And mind you I've said her run is going to get better, she's very young and those marathons are going to improve with her ability to just get better with training etc. She's racing girls that are what 5-8 years older than her....She's a "youngin", and if that's the only reason why she's not a strong runner in the marathon...fine. But right now we are talking her tactics and I can't use her being a strong IM runner into the tactics. Maybe in 3 years, but not right now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

agree - that 1:20 half translates to sub-3 marathon in any calculation, except for when you've just bike time-trialed 112 miles solo on a windy day..
and similarly the 5k is a very good indicator of marathon speed, for a marathon runner..

was thinking the same thing as OP though - when you come out of the water in 48 and the nearest competition is 6min back, not really any good options for the bike. Everyone else gets the benefits of the 12m draft zone, plus pacing help, while Lucy is hanging out in the wind driving big watts all day..

Can someone be in the middle of you two? I agree with you that she has not put up "TOP" running times. I think that her run needs more work/experience (and it will come with time), I also feel that if she improves on the bike, she can bike the same time/speed but be fresher, making the ability of a good run a factor.

Getting better on the bike: leaving her fresher (at the same speed she did this year) for the run
Getting better with running: allows for the ability to run it faster (freshness from the bike mattering).

Or maybe I'm just repeating what someone else said, and missed it.

It seems her and Reece have had a very sensible plan for a gradual year over year run progression in order to minimize injury risk (she talked about this a little in her pre-race Breakfast with Bob interview). Not easy to do I imagine, it's a fine line and takes patience and discipline - so far it appears to be paying off. As many have already mentioned she's still young with her best "endurance years: ahead of her, and that combined with her fierce competitiveness and determination bodes well for continual improvement in her run times.

As others have been saying, her formula is fine, she’s just not going to win every year because there are other women just as capable or more.

The only real thing that could benefit her is if someone swam fast enough to bike with her, but I don’t think slowing down to let Haug or Daniela catch her would ever allow her to run as fast as Haug or Daniela. Maybe she can develop the run fitness over time, but currently she needs to be several minutes ahead starting the run to win.

To me its pretty clear she is a race from the front triathlete. She had bad cramps, that could be nutrition or just going to hard, as someone else said, racing the ghost of last year (Daniela). That being said, she should improve her run and as the saying goes you gotta go with the weapons you have. Her weapons are her swim and bike. Her run is steadily improving. The challenge is that Anne could be around to stay, Daniela could rebound and one my favorite women, Laura Philipp is coming (she was injured most of the year). We are of course giving her some natural progression (I understand that) but the women's field is becoming just as deep as the mens. I just hope he isn't perennially second and never wins a title.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

Oh I think we are saying the same thing with her development future. I just differ on the description/ability of her run right now. But again if you say she's a strong runner, then your basically saying she's over biking. But I think the interesting dynamic in all of this is that she's so far ahead of the chase group, she's stuck riding with her nose to the wind the ENTIRE time. So even if she's not actually "over biking" the chase group is getting an drafting advantage. So if you then say "slow down" for her, are you then only inviting an easier deficit for the runners to over come? There's no way she's going to out run them out of T2 even if she's "rested".

So she really has no choice but to go with it. So maturing strength wise will just help her in the future. So that she'll get stronger at holding the same time but being stronger and then running better. And it'll cause the runners to potentially over bike / over run early to catch up.

You saw what the gap did to 2 runners. One ran through LCB and the other was broken trying to chase the gap. That's what having a 9 min lead does....it can cause people to run really scared/stupid to have to catch up. That's why I dont think her dropping the gap by half will help her particular cause. She doesn't want to be closer to T2 against the uber runners. She wants to make them work as much as possible to catch her advantage.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Vaporfly's

Dude - ON WHAT PLANET IS 3:05-3:08 “not a strong run” for WPRO’s at KONA???

You’re making that sound likes she’s pack fodder with those results.
It’s been good enough for 3 runner-up positions.

Yes - there have been a handful of women who have run 2:5x at Kona, but they are the absolute ELITE of IM women’s runners.

She doesn’t need to run like Rinny or Haug to win this tbing.

Her backing off 7 mins on the bike is not going to magically improve her run by 13 minutes.
That’s a HUGE delta - :30 a mile faster!!!
Honestly - You’re kinda embarrassing yourself to try to claim that sorta BS.

It may not even get back those 7 minutes.
But let’s say it did - so??

OK, she ran approx :15/mile faster, which is lovely, but then her overall time is still exactly the same.

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float , hammer , and jog

Dude - ON WHAT PLANET IS 3:05-3:08 “not a strong run” for WPRO’s at KONA???

You’re making that sound likes she’s pack fodder with those results.
It’s been good enough for 3 runner-up positions.

Yes - there have been a handful of women who have run 2:5x at Kona, but they are the absolute ELITE of IM women’s runners.

She doesn’t need to run like Rinny or Haug to win this tbing.

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No I'm making it out to be the 10th best run (go check the run splits) and thus this idea that it's a strength is invalid right now. There were 5 girls that broke 3 hrs on the run (4 in the top 10, 2 on the podium). I agree she doesn't need to run 2:51 to win. But she's not running close to 3hrs yet either. I'm sorry you have a hard time understanding that.

I've never said it's not been good enough. The thread was asked what tactics does she need to play. Nothing in her current ability to me showcases her running as a strength in the current capacity. Thus that to me sugggests she needs to keep the pedal down on the swim/bike while improving her run incrementally (which will likely happen with an young developing athlete that matures). So if you want to talk tactics, let's just be honest with the reality of what each strength and weakness of the athlete is. Nothing more, nothing less. That's all I've done.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Her backing off 7 mins on the bike is not going to magically improve her run by 13 minutes.
That’s a HUGE delta - :30 a mile faster!!!
Honestly - You’re kinda embarrassing yourself to try to claim that sorta BS.

It may not even get back those 7 minutes.
But let’s say it did - so??


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You may also want to get better reading comprehension cus I've never said backing off 7 mins on the bike = 13 min run capability (especially if your going to start making personal embarassing comments, I'd appreciate if you kept that shit out especially if your making claims I didn't say....that's a bit BS in my book). In fact I've said that's fantasy because then in the end she's actually closer to the stud runners from the start of T2 and she doesnt have the current capability to out run them now.

I've not suggested she slow down on the bike to run faster. Not sure how/why you are saying I have. I've suggested she has to use her gap and force the runners to outrun that gap....and that as long as she's riding "within" her ability that she's doing what she has to because she's riding alone vs the group that is allowed to "conserve".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It’s a triathlon.

She’s got THE best swim, and generally top 1-3 bike.

She doesn’t need a whole lot more in the run.

Women breaking 3 at Kona is still somewhat of a rarity.

And basically none of those who do, have Lucy’s swim & bike chops.

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float , hammer , and jog

And I'm still not sure what your disagreeing with me about. Everything you just said I've basically agreed. I've simply said she's not got the run yet...end of story. You somehow really don't like that I said that, but I'm saying that because that's the reality of what she is right now. That's it. I'm sticking to the facts here, nothing else. She doesn't need a whole lot, but that's the point....She's not shown it yet. DING DING DING....my whole point. We good on that?

And you may want to be much more careful with the embarrassing insults when your making claims that i've never said. That's a bit BS in my book, mate.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Brooks-

Chill.

I think ML confused you with ZenTriBrett (sp?)---Who, I think, is the one that suggested backing off 4 minutes on the bike would gain 8 minutes on the run.

Man you guys get wound up.

Clearly....she needs to come on ST and ask for advice!

Not wound up, just dont add personal insults to the discussion (slowman basically deleted a thread on the pro's cus he thought it got too "personal"). If we are sticking to the facts, and both still disagree.....great. And I'm in no way discrediting her run potential or ability. I'm being very straight forward as a coach that I wouldn't consider her run as a strength in Kona. I would be very very worried if she came out of T2 with anything less than a 5 min advantage by "easing" on the bike. But this also is going to evolve, it's just going to take time, and as I said she's got likely 10+ more years to get it right. I've also said that she's also likely to always have to go up against that "uber runner" and that she's likely going to win on those odd "tough" years where it's so windy it truly is a solo effort kinda day. But those are more rare than the traditional, "fastest runner" wins.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

(Not at you, just using your quote)

Cramps all over is from electrolyte problems or dehydration. Cramps in specific muscles is from going harder than your current capabilities. Lucy said she had leg cramps shortly after starting the run = she went too hard on the bike. Plain and simple.

Based on that factual evidence, she's actually not a 9 minute faster into T2 biker than everybody else. Leg cramps on run = she biked too hard. She's biking harder than her abilities. Like I said, back off the bike and she'll run a lot faster. She ran a 3:08 with leg cramps nearly the entire way. Imagine what she'd do without that problem. Most people would run a marathon 15 minutes faster if they didn't have leg cramps nearly the entire way.

she biked too hard. She's biking harder than her abilities. //

Well ya, she said as much in her post race interview, said they were taking a chance. Have to remember, she was racing the ghost of Ryf at the time. 4 years in a row, seemed like she was a machine that just couldn't break. Daniela is a great runner, but dont think Lucy was planning on having to beat a 2;51 that day, and having a 10 minute lead might do the trick. That was one of those lines you cross that you just dont know how it will go, until you cross it, and get the actual outcome. Cant even remember how many times I crossed it, and had a great result. But most the time you dont, but those few magical days and times, well it keeps you knocking on that door. Especially when you feel you are going to need magic to win the day.

Great point, and why she's such an admirable racer.

Here's what I'll ask you.

Do you think she's at 2:51 run speed, which is only ~7 mins behind Frodo who's been run training for 25+ more years than Lucy Charles has. You think this athlete who's just started run training what 6 years prior has the kona run record in her legs, but she's not activated it because she's overbiked?


Secondly, if she "rests" her legs by sitting in the group, do you see her out running Haug or Ryf? That's the reality, if you want her to sit up and rest her legs and not over bike, she now has MORE MILES to run at a faster pace, than she does if she tries to "hold on" + potentially top runners bonking in effort to catch her.


Keep in mind she had a 9 min lead. That's really really difficult to overcome. Only 1 athlete was able to do that, the other runner did and then she didn't when she "died" from having to chase her so much. In the "save the legs" theory, she now is having to run toe to toe with those runners from basically T2. For a newish runner and not truly developed IM run, that's super big ask.



If you look at Frodo, there's only 1 guy who can basically out run him- Lange. So any person who comes in with Frodo in T2, their race is now over for the win. Let alone coming from behind him. It's done.


So if you can tell me Lucy Charles can out run every other person from the get go by resting her legs, I'll buy that strategy your pushing. I dont see it, and I dont know of many coaches would see it. It may be the best result to get the best time, but it wont get the top step, and yes those can be 2 completely different end results. And right now she's at a point where it's basically going for the win every race now. Not racing for best race necessarily.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

 Brooks - I apologize.

I think I conflated your comments w/ the Zen guys.

And I agree - no reasonable amount of “resting her legs” is going to get her a 2:5x Kona run - at this point I her career, at least.

And the net math to do so, even if possible, probably doesn’t get her across the line any faster.


Anyway - that seems to be my signal to call this season quits.

See y’all in the Spring!

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float , hammer , and jog

Maybe a different coach? Seriously. But overall, I'm not sure saving anything on the swim would give her much extra on the bike or run. She's such a strong swimmer that if someone isn't going to work with her (Brandon just sucked her feet...like a wheel sucker, just in the swim) then she needs to just drop the hammer. Overall, she just and Reece just need to keep doing what they're doing because she is getting better. Just needs to get more bike fit and a lot more run fit and she'll get 3 or 4 of these over her career.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Np and thanks. No need to leave just yet.....although I guess that's it for all the big boy races. IM Arizona and I think Super League is all that is left......

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

"Pay" Brandon to actually domestique for you. Give her some incentive to actually do some work, cus it would be no real different then what TO/Frodo/AB did at the front of the men's race. Pro's pay for other pros to work for them at races. Cover a flight, cover a travel, straight pay for her services, etc.

Maybe she actually can't do the work/pace, but atleast it would be someone who can get out of the swim with her.....just dont wear the same jerseys and no one else would know the difference lol.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II